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North Western Melbourne, Labour Market Insights

Notes

13 October 2014

Presented by Ivan Neville

Branch Manager

Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch

Department of Employment

North Western Melbourne Region

Notes

The Hume LGA accounts for 52 per cent of the Melbourne – North West.

The Brimbank, Hobsons Bay, Maribyrnong, Melton and Wyndham LGAs account for 95 per cent of the Melbourne – West SA4.

The Whittlesea LGA accounts for 35 per cent of the Melbourne – North East SA4.

Snapshot of the region

Indicator North Western Melbourne Victoria

Unemployment rate 7.6% 6.4%

Participation rate 66.6% 64.6%

Youth unemployment rate 15.0% 14.1%

Proportion of 25-34 year olds completed Year 12 77% 79%

Long term unemployment (>12 months) 22% 20%

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force data, August 2014 (12 month averages); ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2011

Population Profile

RegionAdult

Population (15+)

Growth - 2008 to

2012 (15+)

Proportion of WAP (15

to 24 years)

Proportion of

population OTMESC

(2011 census)

Median Age (2011

census)

Hume LGA 138,530 11% 23% 34% 33

Brimbank LGA 157,530 8% 21% 50% 35

Hobsons Bay LGA 72,430 4% 18% 29% 38

Maribyrnong LGA 64,090 9% 18% 42% 34

Melton LGA 89,360 28% 20% 27% 32

Whittlesea LGA 134,430 23% 20% 35% 34

Wyndham LGA 137,290 35% 19% 31% 32North Western Melbourne 794,580 14% 20% 31% 34

Victoria 4,599,070 8% 17% 25% 37

Notes

Source: Estimated Residential Population, 2012; ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

Overall, the adult population in North Western Melbourne grew by 14 per cent between 2008 to 2012, much higher than Victoria (8 per cent).

The proportion of the working age population aged 15 to 24 years in North Western Melbourne (20 per cent) is larger than Victoria (17 per cent).

Overall, the area has a larger proportion of people from an Other Than Main English Speaking Country (OTMESC) when compared with Victoria (31 per cent and 25 per cent respectively)

Age Distribution

Notes

Source: Estimated Residential Population, 2013

This graph shows the age distribution for North Western Melbourne in 2003, 2008 and 2013. The age distribution shows that growth in the population has mostly been for persons aged 20 to 44 years.

Consistently higher unemployment rate

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force data, August 2014 (12 month averages)

The unemployment rate in North Western Melbourne (7.6 per cent as at August 2014) has been consistently higher than Victoria (6.4 per cent as at August 2014).

Growth in males and females employment

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force data, August 2014 (12 month averages)

Full-time jobs growth in North Western Melbourne for males and females was high over the five years to August 2014 (18 per cent and 15 per cent respectively).

Additionally, part-time employment growth was strong for both males and females (17 per cent and 26 per cent respectively).

Male full-time employment growth made up 45 per cent of all jobs growth (30 per cent Victoria)

Male part-time employment growth made up 8 per cent of all jobs growth (15 per cent Victoria)

Female full-time employment growth made up 21 per cent of all jobs growth (26 per cent Victoria)

Female part-time employment growth made up 26 per cent of all jobs growth (30 per cent Victoria)

Duration of unemployment

Region (SA4)

Long-term unemployedAverage duration of

unemployment (weeks)

Persons Percent of all unemployed

Melbourne - North West 3,000 19% 40

Melbourne - West 6,000 23% 43

Melbourne - North East 3,000 17% 33

Victoria 39,000 20% 37

Australia 158,000 22% 40

Notes

Source: ABS Labour Force, August 2014 (12 month average)

The long-term unemployed are those who have been unemployed and looking for work for at least 52 weeks.

The proportion of unemployed people who were long-term unemployed in the Melbourne – West SA4 (23 per cent) was higher when compared to Victoria (20 per cent).

The average duration of unemployment in Melbourne – West SA4 (43 weeks) and Melbourne - North West SA4 (40 weeks) were also higher than the average for Victoria (37 weeks).

Youth Unemployment

Region (SA4)

Youth unemployment (15-24 years) Participation

ratePersons

Youth unemployment

rate

Melbourne - North West 6,000 17.2% 66.6%

Melbourne - West 9,000 13.9% 68.6%

Melbourne - North East 5,000 14.3% 69.3%

Victoria 71,000 14.1% 65.3%

Australia 267,000 12.9% 66.5%

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force, August 2014 (12 month averages)

Due to their lack of skills and experience, young people can be particularly vulnerable during a labour market downturn.

The youth unemployment rate is the proportion of those aged 15 to 24 years, participating in the labour market, who are unemployed.

As at August 2014, the youth unemployment rate for the Melbourne - North West SA4 was 17.2 per cent, considerably higher than both Victoria (14.1 per cent) and Australia (12.9 per cent). The participation rate for the Melbourne - North West SA4 was 66.6 per cent, on par with Australia (66.5 per cent).

Disengaged young adults

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

At the time of the 2011 Census, 14 per cent of young adults (persons aged 20 to 24 years) in North Western Melbourne were neither working or studying. This figure is notably higher when compared with Victoria (11 per cent), and Australia (13 per cent).

For young adult males in the region, 6 per cent were not in the labour force and not studying and 6 per cent were unemployed and not studying. For young adult females in the region, 12 per cent were not in the labour force and not studying and a further 4 per cent were unemployed and not studying.

Within the area there are pockets where disengagement is more pronounced, in particular within the Hume LGA. For young adult males in the Hume LGA, 8 per cent were not in the labour force and not studying and 7 per cent were unemployed and not studying. For young adult females in the Hume LGA 15 per cent were not in the labour force and not studying and a further 5 per cent were unemployed and not studying.

What are 18 to 24 year olds doing?

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, Usual Residence, 2011

At the time of the 2011 Census, there were 15,500 18 to 24 year olds in the Hume LGA, of whom 8,700 were not studying.

• Of the 8,700 who were not studying, those who did not complete year 12, whether they’re employed or not employed, are vulnerable and may have difficulty entering the labour market

Note: Population excludes those who did not sufficiently provide both their educational and employment status.

In what industries do local residents work? North Western Melbourne

Notes

Source: ABS Labour Force data, August Quarter 2014 (4 quarter averages)

In North Western Melbourne the largest employing industries were Retail Trade, Health Care and Social Assistance and Manufacturing (all 11 per cent).

Employment growth: Employment Change – 2009 to 2014 - North Western Melbourne

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2014 (4 quarter averages); ABS, Census of Population and Housing, Usual Residence, 2011

This graph shows the change in the number of people employed in the largest employing industries in North Western Melbourne over the period 2009 to 2014. Much of the growth in employment in the region was concentrated in the Health Care and Social Assistance (25,300 persons) and Public Administration and Safety (15,100 persons) industries.

Manufacturing decreased by 6,600 between 2009 to 2014.

5 year shift across industries, North Western Melbourne

Notes

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2014 (4 quarter averages)

Over the last five years, a structural change in the economy of North Western Melbourne has seen a shift in employment away from some major industries and growth in others. The Manufacturing and Accommodation and Food Services industries now account for a smaller proportion of total employment than they did in 2009. The most significant shift has been towards the Health Care and Social Assistance industry which now accounts for 11 per cent of employment, up 4 percentage points from 2009.

Educational attainment

Region

Completed Year 12

Advanced Diploma,

Diploma or Certificate III & IV

Bachelor Degree or

Higher2011 2006

Hume LGA 70% 62% 30% 23%

Brimbank LGA 79% 69% 28% 31%

Hobsons Bay LGA 82% 73% 27% 41%

Maribyrnong LGA 89% 83% 22% 52%

Melton LGA 73% 66% 34% 25%

Whittlesea LGA 78% 69% 33% 29%

Wyndham LGA 78% 67% 29% 37%

North Western Melbourne 77% 69% 29% 33%

Victoria 79% 73% 29% 40%

Notes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2006 and 2011

Job seekers who have not completed Year 12 and have limited experience in the workforce are likely to lack many basic employability skills that employers value and look for in applicants, particularly for lower skilled vacancies and entry level positions such as apprenticeships and traineeships.

At the time of the 2011 Census, the proportion of 25 to 34 year olds in North Western Melbourne who had completed Year 12 or equivalent was 77 per cent, on par with Victoria (79 per cent).

The proportion of persons who had completed Year 12 between the 2006 and 2011 census had increased in North Western Melbourne by 8 percentage points, a figure higher than Victoria (6 percentage points).

At the time of the 2011 Census, the proportion of 25 to 34 year olds who had attained an Advanced Diploma, Diploma or Certificate level III or IV in the area (29 per cent) was on par with Victoria (29 per cent), but the proportion who had attained a Bachelor Degree or higher (33 per cent) was lower than the average across Victoria (40 per cent).

Educational attainment and labour market outcomes: Persons aged 25 to 34 years - North Western Melbourne

Notes


There is a strong relationship between educational attainment and employment outcomes. For those aged 25 to 34 years in North Western Melbourne who had not completed Year 12 there was a low participation rate (64.1 per cent) and a high unemployment rate (12.8 per cent). Although the participation rate was higher for those who had not completed Year 12 but had attained a Certificate Levels I or II qualification (67.0 per cent), the unemployment rate was even higher (15.0 per cent).

Unemployment rates are considerably lower for those who have completed Year 12 (7.1 per cent). They are even better for those who have attained a Certificate Levels III or IV (4.5 per cent), or completed a tertiary education at the Advanced Diploma and Diploma Level (4.8 per cent) or Bachelor Degree or higher level (4.3 per cent). This emphasises the importance of post-school education in gaining employment.

High intake of humanitarian migrants: Over the past 5 years (settlers aged 18-64 years)

Notes

Source: Department of Immigration and Border Protection, http://www.immi.gov.au/settlement and Citizenship. Settlement reporting, September 2009 to September 2014

There have been over 39,840 migrants (aged 18-64 years) settle in North Western Melbourne over the past 5 years:

36 per cent (12,714 migrants) settled under the skilled migration stream, compared with 50 per cent for Australia.

47 per cent (16,508 migrants) settled under the family migration stream, compared with 42 per cent for Australia.

17 per cent (6,108 migrants) settled under the humanitarian migration stream, compared with 8 per cent for Australia.

Of all Humanitarian migrants aged 18-64 who settled in Australia over the past 5 years, 9 per cent settled in North Western Melbourne.

OTMESC recent arrivals more likely to be in lower skilled employment — Persons of working age in 2011 (arriving 2010 to August 2011) - North Western Melbourne

Notes


Recent Other Than Mainly English Speaking Countries (OTMESC) migrants to Australia living in the North Western Melbourne region are more likely to be employed in lower skilled occupations compared with Mainly English Speaking Countries (MESC).

39 per cent of the regions OTMESC working age population who arrived in 2010 to 2011 were employed in lower skilled occupations compared with 23 per cent for MESC.

26 per cent of OTMESC working age people in the region have a Bachelor Degree or higher.

16 per cent of MESC working age people in the region have a Bachelor Degree or higher.

OTMESC females less likely to be working or studying: Working Age Population – North Western Melbourne

Notes


At the time of the 2011 Census, OTMESC working age females were less likely to be working than their MESC counterparts. Overall, 35 per cent of OTMESC working age females in North Western Melbourne were not studying and not in the labour force compared with 20 per cent for their MESC counterparts.

This disparity is even greater for Hume where 44 per cent of OTMESC working age females were not studying and not in the labour force (21 per cent for their MESC counterparts).

Underutilisation of educated migrants with a bachelor degree or higher – North Western Melbourne

Notes

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2011

This chart illustrates migrant underutilisation by comparing labour market participation of those with a Bachelor Degree or higher by whether they were a migrant from an Other Than Main English Speaking Country (OTMESC) or not. There was a lower level of labour market participation for highly qualified OTMESC migrants compared with the non-OTMESC migrants. For both males and females, a higher proportion of the OTMESC population with a Bachelor Degree or higher were either not in the labour force, unemployed or employed in a low skilled occupation.

At the time of the 2011 census, 28 per cent of OTMESC working age females with a Bachelor Degree or higher were not participating in the labour force. This is significantly higher when compared to MESC females (14 per cent).

Additionally, 18 per cent of OTMESC working age males with a Bachelor Degree or higher, were employed in a lower skilled occupation (compared to 8 per cent for MESC males).

*Lower Skilled Occupation refers to those in the Machinery Operators and Drivers, Sales Workers and Labourers occupation groups.

Most new jobs will be in the services sector: Regional projected employment growth – five years to November 2018

Notes

Source: Department of Employment Industry Projections to November 2018

The Department of Employment has projected that jobs will grow in North Western Melbourne by 49,600 in the five years to November 2018. The largest growth is projected to occur in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry (22 per cent). This industry accounts for 27 per cent of the overall projected jobs growth for Australia. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services had the second largest projected jobs growth (12 per cent of total growth), followed by Retail Trade (projected 10 per cent), Education and Training (10 per cent), Public Administration and Safety (9 per cent), Construction (9 per cent), Accommodation and Food Services (8 per cent) and Transport, Postal and Warehousing (7 per cent).

The Manufacturing industry will experience the greatest decline in employment (down 3,000 jobs) in the five years to November 2018.

What are employers telling us?

Competition for vacancies tighter …but little change in number of suitable applicants

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in North Western Melbourne, Feb 2010, March 2012, July 2013 and May 2014

Since 2010, competition for vacancies in North Western Melbourne has become higher; however, there has been little change in the number of suitable applicants.

Overall, there has been an average increase of 11.2 applicants per vacancy since 2010 (from 9.9 applicants in 2010 to 21.1 applicants in 2014); however, there has been a decrease of 0.2 suitable applicants per vacancy (1.9 suitable applicants in 2010 to 1.7 suitable applicants in 2014).

High competition for vacancies – by industry

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in North Western Melbourne, May 2014

Competition for vacancies was high across all industries in North Western Melbourne with an average of 21.1 applicants per vacancy of whom only 3.5 qualified for an interview.

The Wholesale industry reported the highest levels of competition with 31.2 applicants per vacancy of whom 4.8 qualified for interview. This was followed by Transport, Postal and Warehousing (28.8 applicants per vacancy of whom 3.9 qualified for interview), Manufacturing (27.8 applicants per vacancy of whom 4.5 qualified for interview) and Accommodation and Food Services (21.6 applicants per vacancy of whom 4.3 qualified for interview).

Notably, competition was very high for the Clerical and Administrative Workers occupation group. There was an average of 64.9 applicants per with an average of 4.2 applicants qualifying for an interview.

Reasons applicants didn’t get an interview

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences North Western Melbourne Area, May 2014

On average, 84 per cent of applicants did not get an interview.

When asked why applicants didn’t get an interview, 56 per cent of employers mentioned that a lack of relevant work experience was a factor. This was followed insufficient qualifications or training (29 per cent), applicant located overseas, interstate or out of the area (16 per cent), applicant not available for required work hours (14 per cent) and poor application (12 per cent).

Personality traits and employability skills employers in North Western Melbourne viewed as essential

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences North Western Melbourne Area, May 2014

There were a range of general employability skills and personality traits that employers in the North Western Melbourne area commonly viewed as essential for the position they recently recruited for.

Employability skills commonly considered essential included:

Interpersonal/Social Skills Customer Service Skills Communication Teamwork

Personality traits commonly considered essential included:

Reliability Honesty, Loyalty and Work Ethic Enthusiasm and Motivation Presentation & Confidence

Informal recruitment opportunities …and much less competition for informal vacancies

Notes

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in North Western Melbourne Area, May 2014

Although more employers are advertising through formal methods, competition for vacancies is much lower when job seekers apply through informal methods.

A large proportion of recruiting employers (70 per cent) used formal methods to advertise for vacancies (i.e. internet, newspaper). For vacancies advertised using a formal recruitment method there were 30 applicants per vacancy of whom 4 applicants were interviewed.

A smaller (30 per cent) proportion of employers used informal methods only to recruit (i.e. word of mouth, approached by job seeker). For vacancies advertised using an informal recruitment method only there were 6 applicants per vacancy of whom 2 applicants were interviewed.

Strong recruitment expectation in many industries: Anticipated staff change for the 12 months following survey by industry

Notes


Overall, staffing expectations in North Western Melbourne were moderately positive with 33 per cent of employers expecting to recruit in the 12 months following the survey. Importantly, more employers expected to increase staff numbers (19 per cent of employers) compared with those expecting to decrease staff (11 per cent).

The Accommodation and Food Services had the largest proportion of employers who anticipated increasing staff numbers in the 12 months following the survey (44 per cent); 12 per cent expected to decrease staff numbers. This was followed by Transport, Postal and Warehousing (24 per cent expected to increase staff numbers and 6 per cent expected to decrease staff numbers), Construction (21 per cent expected to increase and 4 per cent expected to decrease) and Health Care and Social Assistance (20 per cent expected to increase and 2 per cent expected to decrease).

Manufacturing had a large proportion of employers expecting to decrease the number of staff in the 12 months following the survey, while 12 per cent anticipated increasing staff numbers.

Opportunities across many occupations

Some 33 per cent of employers anticipated recruiting in the 12 months following the survey, most commonly for:

Higher Skill Level – Bachelor Degree or Higher / Medium Skill Level – Certificate IV to Associate Degree

Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians Enrolled and Mothercraft Nurses Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers* Chefs* Child Carers

Lower Skill Level – Compulsory Secondary Education to Certificate III

Sales Assistants (General) Truck Drivers General Clerks Kitchenhands Receptionists Storepersons

* Occupations that employers reported were difficult to fill in their last recruitment round.


Transitional challenges – North Western Melbourne

Notes


This slide highlights some of the transitional challenges Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing workers may face when attempting to regain employment. Among these are the lower wages and availability of hours that often accompany lower skilled occupations.

Although Hospitality Workers and Personal Carers and Assistants are among the occupations which have grown the most from 2006 to 2011, they will in general offer a lower salary and fewer hours per week than occupations in the Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing industry.

Characteristics of the Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing industry, as well as the Hospitality Workers and Personal Carers and Assistants occupations include:

Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing

Median weekly full-time income: $1000 - $1249 Average hours per week: 40 Male 90%

Hospitality workers

Median weekly full-time income: $600 - $799 Average hours per week: 20 Male: 24%

Personal Carers and Assistants

Median weekly full-time income: $600 - $799 Average hours per week: 25 Male: 11%

Hints for workers recently made redundant

Hints for workers recently made redundant

Consider a wide range of job opportunities Re-training is likely to be required Promote your adaptability Act quickly Be positive an enthusiastic

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences

Conclusion

Labour market is subdued

Unemployment rate has increased over the last 12 months – shift to part-time employment

What are the issues?

Very strong population growth

High levels of youth disengagement

Transition to services sector: retraining requirement

High migrant intake (humanitarian) and underutilisation

Local workforce more reliant on lower skilled employment

Opportunities

Strong employment growth in services sector

Recruitment difficulty persists for some occupations

Broader Melbourne labour market

Job seekers need to be job ready

Job search activity

Experience

Education/training

Employability skills

Collaboration amongst all key stakeholders

If you have any questions about the presentation please contact the Employer Surveys Section or Recruitment Analysis Section on 1800 059 439 or email [email protected]

Further Information

More information on labour market conditions and other research on small areas can be found on these web sites

www.employment.gov.au/LMIP www.employment.gov.au/SkillShortages www.employment.gov.au/RegionalReports www.employment.gov.au/australianjobs www.joboutlook.gov.au www.mycareer.com.au

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