skills, not just diplomas - world bank
TRANSCRIPT
Skills, Not Just DiplomasFindings from regional report on Eastern Europe and
Central Asia (ECA) and ongoing World Bank work
Presentation at launch
Eschborn, Germany
Lars Sondergaard, October 25, 2011
www.worldbank.org/eca/skills
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Co
un
trie
s
EU10+1 and TurkeyWestern BalkansLI CISMI CIS
AZE
BIH
KOS
MKD
SRB
SVN
ARM
GEO
KGZ
ALB
BGR
TUR
Mean = 30.2
TJK
UZB
CZE
EST
HRV
LVA
POL
SVK
UKR
MDA
LTU
ROM
MNE
HUN
KAZ
RUS BLR
The wake up call: supply hasn’t kept
up with changes in the demand
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Workers' skills had become a constraint on firm expansion by 2008.
(percent of firms considering factor a 'major' or 'very severe' constraint)
Source: Turmoil at Twenty, World Bank, 2009
Countries
where more
than 40% of
firms report
that “skills”
has become a
severe
constraint to
growth
Surveys of firms highlight that soft
skills are as important as other skills
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0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
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3,5
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Hea
lth
an
d s
afet
y ru
les
Arm
enia
n h
isto
ry/
cult
ure
En
vir
on
men
tal aw
aren
ess
Pro
cure
men
t
Fo
reig
n lan
guag
e sk
ills
Pro
ble
m s
olv
ing
skill
s
Wri
tin
g sk
ills
Cust
om
er s
ervic
e sk
ills
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
skill
s
Tea
m W
ork
ing
Skills
Sh
ow
ing
init
iati
ve
Inn
ova
tio
n a
nd c
reat
ivit
y
Lea
der
ship
Tel
eph
on
e sk
ills
En
trep
ren
euri
al s
kill
s
Qual
ity
man
agem
ent
skill
s
IT s
kill
s
Sal
es a
nd m
arket
ing
Web
des
ign
/m
ain
ten
ance
Pro
duct
dev
elo
pm
ent
skill
s
Acc
oun
tan
cy a
nd b
udget
ing
Pri
cin
g
Adm
inis
trat
ive
skill
s
Knowledge Cognitive skills Soft skills Technical skill
1 =
no
t im
po
rtan
t, 4
= e
xtr
em
ely
im
po
rtan
t
Armenian firms in hospitality industry, 2007
What skills are we talking about?
Cognitive
Involving the use of logical, intuitive and
creative thinking
Raw problem solving ability vs. knowledge to
solve problems
Verbal ability, numeracy, problem solving, memory (working and long-term)
and mental speed
Non-cognitive
Soft skills, social skills, life-skills, personality traits
Openness to experience, conscientiousness,
extraversion, agreeability, emotional stability
Self-regulation, perseverance, decision making, interpersonal
skills
Technical skills
Involving manual dexterity and the use of methods,
materials, tools and instruments
Technical skills developed through vocational
schooling or acquired on the job
Skills related to a specific occupation (e.g. engineer, economist, IT specialist,
etc) 5
Basic cognitive skills is a problem for
many students
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
Kyr
gyzs
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Aze
rbai
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Kaz
akh
stan
Alb
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Mo
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ulg
aria
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iaSer
bia
Russ
ian
Fed
erat
ion
Turk
eyL
ith
uan
iaC
zech
Rep
ub
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roat
iaSlo
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ub
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atvia
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ico
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ileA
ust
ria
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ourg
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ece
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yF
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ain
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man
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nit
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ingd
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gium
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rtuga
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tate
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and
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and
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itze
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enm
ark
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rway
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eth
erla
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sA
ust
ralia
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rea
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ama
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uQ
atar
Ind
on
esia
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enti
na
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isia
Bra
zil
Jord
anC
olo
mb
iaT
rin
idad
an
d T
ob
ago
Th
aila
nd
Uru
guay
Dub
ai (
UA
E)
Lie
chte
nst
ein
Ch
ines
e T
aip
eiM
acao
-Ch
ina
Sin
gap
ore
Ho
ng
Ko
ng-
Ch
ina
Sh
angh
ai-C
hin
a
ECA OECD, non-ECA Others
% of 15 year olds which are functionally illiterate
Source: OECD PISA 2009 (proportion of student scoring “below level 2” on
reading test)
What about
Soft skills?
Technical skills?
Skills of adult
population?
Skills of tertiary
graduates?
Available data focuses on education
attained, not the skills acquired
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2712
63
61
57
56
61
31
2540
1726
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EU+1 Mid-CIS W. Balkans Low-CIS Turkey
Compulsory or less Upper secondary Beyond upper secondary
Education of recent graduates
(Education of 25-34 year olds, 2006)
We have data on
cognitive skills of
age 15 but not
beyond
The population is projected to
continue to shrink in many countries
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-14-14-12-11-8 -8 -7 -6 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3
-1
0 0 1 3 3
18 18 1922 22
25
31
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Bulg
aria
Geo
rgia
Mo
ldova
Ukra
ine
Lat
via
Bo
snia
Bel
arus
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
Russ
ia
Ser
bia
Slo
vakia
Hun
gar
y
Est
on
ia
Mac
edo
nia
Mo
nte
neg
ro
Arm
enia
Slo
ven
ia
Alb
ania
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Aze
rbai
jan
Kaz
akh
stan
Turk
ey
Uzb
ekis
tan
Turk
men
ista
n
Kyr
gyz
Rep
ub
lic
Taj
ikis
tan
Projected Population % Change, 2010-2030
Source: UN (Population Division)
Two things are going to happen: fewer
people will be around and more old people
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
x 105
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Population in each age group (x 105)
Age
Age distribution in year 2005
Male Female
Pre-school
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Not enrolled
Unemployed
Employed
Not in labor force
Example: Bulgaria (2005)
The implies activation inactive part of the
population and raising skills of everyone
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
x 105
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Population in each age group (x 105)
Age
Age distribution in year 2035
Male Female
Pre-school
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Not enrolled
Unemployed
Employed
Not in labor force
Example: Bulgaria (2035)
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
x 105
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Population in each age group (x 105)
Age
Age distribution in year 2005
Male Female
Pre-school
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Not enrolled
Unemployed
Employed
Not in labor force
Addressing the effect of aging needs
action on three fronts
Example: Bulgaria (2005)
Providing
quality and
relevant
education
Activating
workers
Keeping
workers
productive
Focus of World Bank’s work: How can the
system’s performance be improved?
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Refocusing what you see:
System performance
(skills developed)
Understanding what you
don’t see:
Policies
Institutions
Values
Focus of System
Assessment and
Benchmarking
for Education
Results (SABER)
Understanding what you don’t see: are the
policies and institutions cutting-edge?
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Latent
Emerging
Established
Cutting-edge
SABERs are being
developed in a number
of key thematic areas
and piloted around the
world.
Skills, not Just Diplomas
points to three policy
areas where ECA’s
systems appear weak
I’ll focus on one of
them today
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Impediment 1: darknessToo many
unknowns to
pinpoint skills
gaps
What works
and what
doesn’t work?
Is the situation
improving or
worsening?
Student’s
perspective:
what and where
should I study?
Graduate’s
perspective: I
got the diploma
but did I get
the skills?
No
measurement
of quality at
tertiary level
No tracer
studies
No
measurements
of non-
cognitive skills
No
measurement
of skills
obtained in
adult education
Five countries
have never
participated in
international
assessments
National
assessments are
primarily used
to test student,
not assess
system
Example of important unknown
There are around 35 HE institutions teaching
economics in Kiev: 20 private and 15 public
Student’s perspective: which institution does a
better job at teaching me the skills I need to
succeed? Where should I go if I can’t get into the
flagship institutions?
Employer’s perspective: which students outside of
the prestigious institutions graduate with the right
skills?
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Example of important unknown
(continued) There are around 35 HE institutions teaching
economics in Kiev: 20 private and 15 public
Institution’s perspective: which of my programs are
successful and which programs need tweaking/re-
designing?
Policy maker’s perspective: which institution is
performing well? Which institution need
sanctions/rewards/support?
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Report notes a couple of problems
A lot of focus on the few excellent students
Most countries use assessments to make decisions
about students, not the education system itself.
When assessments are used to obtain system-level
measures, they tend to be of poor quality and
utility. E.g. highlight which school (or region) had
the highest average score; rank schools by average
score
17
s
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Fair is fair?To ensure a fair
selection, you all get
the same test. You
must all climb that
tree.
Collecting data
Analyzing and disseminating
Using results for decision making
For data to have an impact, it needs to
be analyzed, disseminated and used
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Performance-
informed budgeting
Identify weaknesses
and design programs
to remedy them
Part of accountability
framework
Example of using tests to shed light on
systemic problems
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Learning gap between Roma and non-Roma students, Serbia 2009
Source: Aleksandar Baucal (2010) analysis of PISA 2009; * statistically significant
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Learning gap, after controlling for socio-economic differences
Learn
ing
gap
(d
iffe
ren
ce i
n
PIS
A 2
009 s
co
re)
Math*
Reading
Science
How is the World Bank supporting
strengthening education and training systems?
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Benchmarking policies: SABER(http://www.worldbank.org/education/saber)
Providing ways to turn the lights on:
New survey instruments to measure skills, incl. socio-
emotional skills, and links to socio-economic success
and well-being
Tracking graduates using tracer studies
Building capacity to use assessments to determine
overall system quality
Skills surveys of both cognitive
and non-cognitive skills
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Bolivia
El Salvador
Colombia
Sri Lanka Vietnam
Lao RD
Egypt
Burkina FasoRwanda
Uzbekistan
Morocco
China
(Yunnan)
KyrgyzstanMoldova
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Surveys in late
2011/early 2012.
Results in August
2012
Armenia
Georgia
OECD
AHELO (measuring
skills of tertiary
students)
PIAAC (measuring
skills of adults)
Example: Countries to emulate in terms
of tracking graduates into employment
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Romania (first survey in 2010-11) http://www.absolvent-univ.ro/home.aspx
Hungary (Graduate Career Tracking System starting in
2010) http://www.felvi.hu/pub_bin/dload/DPR/DPR_GraduateCarreerTrackingInHungary.pdf
Italy (since 1998) http://www.almalaurea.it/en/universita/occupazione/
Germany (since 2009/10); Holland (since 1989); Norway
(since 1972)
University Graduates’ Tracer Study Course
(UNITRACE) (at University of Kassel)
Available at
www.worldbank.org/eca/skills
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How can we help creating skills for
growth? For more information on
presentation and report: contact
Lars Sondergaard
Alberto Rodriguez, Sector
Manager,
Mamta Murthi, Sector Director,