skills gap iowa final - iowa state university · web developers 15-1134 associate's degree...

EXPLORINGTHESKILLSGAPINIOWA

LieslEathingtonandDaveSwenson1

INTRODUCTIONPerspectivesarewide‐rangingaboutthereadiness,quality,andsupplyofthenation’sworkforce

whenitcomestoincorporatingever‐increasingskilldemandsintheworkplace.Theoft‐publicized

andcurrentlyprevailingassumptionisthatmanyworkersareinadequatelytrainedoreducatedto

meetmodernworkforcedemands.2Thislamentismostoftencenteredonskilledmanufacturing

productionjobs,informationtechnologypositions,andinhealthservices.

Whilediscussionsofvarioustypesofskillsgapshavebeenaroundforquitesometime,thepeakof

recentcomplaintscoincidedwithatimewhennationalunemploymentacrossalloccupationswas

veryhigh.How,oneshouldask,couldtherepossiblyhavebeenaskillsshortagewhensomany

skilledworkerswereoutofwork?Thewidespreadconclusionwasandstillisthatdespitehigh

unemployment,theworkforcewasnonethelessinsufficienttomeetmanyindustries’talentneeds.

Usageoftheterm“skillsgap”isfrequentlyvagueandbroad–whichskillsandwhy,howbigisthe

gap,andwhereisit?Thisresearchlooksattheskillsgaptopicfromthestandpointof

InvestigatingthebroadnatureofrecentoccupationalchangeintheU.S.,

Developingdescriptiveindicatorsofskilllevelsusingoccupationalgroupings,and

Comparingandcontrastingskillsupplyanddemandindicatorsacrossstates

Ourresearchputstheskillsgapdiscussionintotemporal,regional,anddimensionalcontextto

differentiateamongtypesofoccupationalemploymentchangeoccurringintheU.S.Wefind

notableshiftingamongso‐calledmiddleskilloccupations,butasawhole,middleskilljobshavenot

demonstrablyincreasedtheirshareoftheU.S.economy.Wealsoconcludethatproducingcredible

evidenceofamiddleskillsgaprequiresanalyticalanddefinitional‐specificitythatissimplynot

possibleusingstateorregionalsecondarydata.

1BothauthorsarescientistsintheDepartmentofEconomics,IowaStateUniversity.Excerptedinpartfromapaperpreparedforandpresentedatthe54thSouthernRegionalScienceAssociationAnnualMeeting,Mobile,AL,March27,2015.2Seeasexamples,JamieDimonandMarleneSeltzer,ClosingtheSkillsGap,Politico,5January2014;MariceA.Jones,SaraGoldrick‐Rab,DennisBrown,andChauncyLennon,PayingforWorkers’Training,NewYorkTimes,19March2015;andforadecidedlycontrarianviewonthetopic,PaulKrugman,JobsandSkillsandZombies,NewYorkTimes,30March2014.

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SECTION1:THESKILLSGAPDEBATE1.1ConflictingresearchSeveralprominentresearchsourcesdecryacurrentandloomingskillsgap,yetotherrespectable

sourcesaverthereisnoskillsgap,perse,andthatskillsgapcomplainersarecryingwolf.Still

othersnotethatthenation’sskilldemandsareincreasing,therearedifferentialconsequencesto

thosedemands,anditisverydifficulttodiscernwhetherthesupplyofskilledlaborisinfact

seriouslyunderminingU.S.productivity.

RecentmediacoverageandstatepolicydevelopmentsconcerningaskillsgapintheU.S.havebeen

basedinpartbystudiesdonefortheNationalAssociationofManufacturersaswellasotherstudies

sponsoredbybusinessgroupsandhighereducationinstitutions(see,asexamples,Deloitte2011,

2015andBridgeland,etal,2011)claimingtherearetangibleandworrisomeskillshortagesthat

willonlyworsenasBabyBoomersretire.Thesestudiescallforbothpublicandpublic/private

interventionstoremedythesituation.Asaresult,manystateshaverespondedwithpolicyand

programdevelopmentsintendedtoshuntmorestudentsandadultlearnersintoshortage

professions.

Askillsgapdebatearises,however,becausetherearemanystudiescastingdoubtontheprevailing

skillsgapnarrative.Asexamples,

Sahin,etal,(2012)foundonlytemporarymismatchesduringtheGreatRecessionandthat

thosemismatchesdisappearedasbusinessconditionsimproved.

LazeerandSpelzer(2012)validatedthisacrossindustriesandoccupations–no

mismatcheswerefoundthatwerelasting.

Autor(2010)andJaimovichandSiu(2012)concludedthatjobskillspolarizationismoreof

anissue,thatmiddleskillsterritoryisnotgrowing,butisinstead“hollowingout”mostly

duetoroutinejobsbeingreplacedbyautomation.

OstermanandWeaver(2014)foundthatmanufacturerstendedtogrosslyoverestimate

theirworkershortagesifsurveyquestionswerenotcraftedproperlyorthesurveyswere

notadministeredtotherightperson,and

BivensandShierholz(2014)couldnotfind,acrossarangeofmeasures,anytraditional

economic“signatures”ofskillsgaps(hours,wages,andunemploymentratedifferentials

amongdifferentoccupationgroups,differentindustrygroups,oreducationleveletc.)

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Thesecontradictorystudiesnotwithstanding,itisstillwidelyassumedthatthenationissuffering

fromasignificantskillsgap,astructuralprobleminneedofsocialintervention.

1.2VagueterminologyVagueterminologymaybepartiallytoblamefordifferingopinionsaboutthemiddleskillsgap,as

theterms“skillsgap”and“middleskills”arebothopentowideinterpretation.

Whenthereisanimbalancebetweenparticularelementsoflabordemandandlaborsupplythat

discomfortsemployers,theimbalanceiscalledalaborshortage,orinrecentyearsaskillsgap,

owingtothefacttherehasbeenademonstrablesurplusofworkersduringthemostrecent

recessionandrecovery.Whenthereisasupplyanddemandimbalancethatdiscomfortsworkers,it

iscalledunemployment.Andifunemployedworkersdonothaveorcannotobtaintherequisite

skillstofillindustryneeds,thenthereisaneconomicproblempotentiallyrequiringpublicaction.

Thetest,then,istodiscernwhetherthereisanactionableeconomicprobleminneedofaremedy.

Theterm“middleskills”maymeandifferentthingstodifferenttypesofemployers.Manufacturing

productiondoesnotholdamonopolyonmiddle‐skills,ithasjust14.5percentofmiddle‐skilljobs

accordingtoourresearch.Butthatsectorissignificantlydominatingtheskillsgapdiscussion,

especiallyinthemanufacturing‐dependentMidwest.Broadeningthediscussiontoallindustries

dependingonmiddle‐skilloccupationsallowsforamorerealisticcharacterizationofanticipated

workerneedsandtherolesthateducationalandotherhumanresourcedevelopinginstitutionsmay

helpplayinmeetingfutureneeds.

1.3RegionaldifferencesYetanotherfactorcloudingthemiddleskillsgapdebateisthelikelihoodthatitvariesbyregion.

Therearepronounceddifferencesintheeducationalorskilllevelsoftheworkforcesacrossthe

statesandmajorregions.AskillsgapdiscussioninSanJose,California,willdiffersignificantlyfrom

askillsgapdiscussioninPeoria,Illinois,owingprimarilytotheoverallindustrialmixesinthose

twoplaces.

Aretheresignificantandproductivity‐reducinglabormismatchesintheU.S.thathaveemergedof

lateandaredistinctfromlongtermpatternsofdomesticmigration,occupationalgrowth,and

workerpreparedness?Aretherebasictoolsthatcanbeappliedtothisdiscussionthathelpus

understandbyoccupationandbyregionjustwhatmightbehappeninginthenation’smiddle‐skill

workforce?Investigatingcrossstatevariabilityshouldhelpusunderstandmoreaboutthe

nation’sostensiblemiddle‐skillssituationandoutlook.

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SECTION2:DEFININGMIDDLESKILLSOuranalysisappliesanoccupation‐baseddefinitionofmiddleskills.Wedefinemiddleskill

occupationsasthosetypicallyrequiringsomeeducationormoderatetraining/experiencebeyond

highschoolbutlessthana4‐yearcollegedegree.Occupationsmeetingtheserequirementsare

identifiedusingU.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(BLS)EmploymentProjectionsProgramdatathat

describethetypicaleducationandtrainingrequirementsfor820ofdetailedoccupationswithinthe

2010StandardOccupationalClassification(SOC)system.Table1showsexamplesoftheeducation

andtrainingprofilesforselectedoccupations.

Table1

Toaggregateoccupationsintodiscreteskillgroups,wecombineelementsfromtheeducation,

experience,andtrainingdimensionsintoasingle“skills”continuumwith14levels,thenusethe

continuumtoscoreandgroupall820detailedoccupations.Group14occupationshavethehighest

education/trainingrequirements,Group1thelowest.Middleskilljobsincludealloccupationsin

Groups4‐10.Wefurtherdistinguishuppermiddleskilljobs(Groups8‐10),whichtypicallyrequire

somecollegeorassociatedegree,fromlowermiddleskilljobs(Groups4‐7),whichgenerallydonot

requireformaleducationalattainmentbeyondhighschoolbutdorequirerelatedexperienceor

Typical education needed for entry

Work experience in a related

occupation

Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in

the occupationSkill

Weight*

Computer programmers 15-1131 Bachelor's degree None None 11

Web developers 15-1134 Associate's degree None None 10

Database administrators 15-1141 Bachelor's degree Less than 5 years None 12

Economists 19-3011 Master's degree None None 13

Court reporters 23-2091 Postsecondary non-degree award None Short-term on-the-job training 8

Economics teachers, postsecondary 25-1063 Doctoral or professional degree None None 14

Teacher assistants 25-9041 Some college, no degree None None 9

Hearing aid specialists 29-2092 High school diploma or equivalent None None 2

Sheet metal workers 47-2211 High school diploma or equivalent None Apprenticeship 6

Machinists 51-4041 High school diploma or equivalent None Long-term on-the-job training 5

Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 51-4121 High school diploma or equivalent None Moderate-term on-the-job training 4

Laundry and dry-cleaning workers 51-6011 Less than high school None Short-term on-the-job training 1

Flight attendants 53-2031 High school diploma or equivalent Less than 5 years Moderate-term on-the-job training 7

Bus drivers, school or special client 53-3022 High school diploma or equivalent None Short-term on-the-job training 3

Source: Employment Projections program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2012 National Employment Matrix title and code

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higherlevelsofon‐the‐jobtraining.Table2summarizestherequirementsprofilesforthefour

majoroccupationalskillgroupings.

Withashareof43percent,lowskilljobscomprisethelargestshareoftheU.S.economy.Highskill

jobsarethesmallestgroupwith23percent.Middleskilloccupationsaccountedforabout34

percentofallU.S.jobsin2013.Twothirdsofallmiddleskilljobsfallintothelowermiddleskill

categoryandonethirdareuppermiddleskill.

Table2

SECTION3:MIDDLESKILLJOBCHANGEINTHEU.S.TheshareofmiddleskilljobsintheU.S.economyerodedslightlyfrom2007‐2013from36percent

to34percent.Growthof4.3percentinuppermiddleskilljobscouldnotoffsetthenearly10

percentdeclineinlowermiddleskilljobs,resultinginanoverallnetdeclineof5.6percentinmiddle

skilljobs.Lowskilljobsdeclinedby1.8percent.Highskilljobsgrewby6.9percent.

Skill group Typicaleducationalattainment for entry

Work experience in a related occupation

Typical on‐the‐jobtraining required for competency

Percentage of U.S. jobs in

2013

Skilllevel

High Skill Doctoral or professional degree 3% 14

Master’s degree 2% 13

Bachelor’s degree Any related work experience 5% 12

None 13% 11

Upper Middle Skill Associate degree 4% 10

Some college, no degree 1% 9

Postsecondary vocational award 6% 8

Lower Middle Skill High school diplomaor equivalent

Apprenticeship 1% 7

Any related work experience 6% 6

None Long‐term 4% 5

Moderate‐term 12% 4

Low Skill High school or equivalent

None Short‐term 15% 3

None 1% 2

Less than high school 27% 1

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Fewstatesdeviatedfromthegeneralpatternofemploymentlossinlowermiddleskilljobsand

gainsinuppermiddleskilljobs.Maps1and2illustrateemploymentchangeratesbystateand

occupationgroupfrom2007‐2013.Iowalost1.9percentofitslowermiddleskilljobs,muchbetter

thanthenationalaveragedeclineofnearly10percent.Nevadahadthegreatestlossoflower

middleskilljobswithitslossof23percent.LowermiddleskilljobsinNorthDakotagrewmore

than30percent.Iowa’sgrowthrateof7.6percentinuppermiddleskilljobswellexceededthe

nationalaveragerateof4.3percent.NorthDakotaledallstatesinthiscategorywithagrowthrate

of29percent.

BLSemploymentprojectionssuggestthatgrowthratesinuppermiddleskilljobswillcontinueto

outpacelowermiddleskilljobsthroughoutthenextdecade.Uppermiddleskilljobswillgrowby

nearly16percentnationallyfrom2012‐22.Lowermiddleskilljobsareprojectedtogrowbyless

than8percent,theslowestrateamongthefourmajorskillgroupings.Figure1illustratesrecent

andprojectedU.S.employmentgrowthratesbyskillgrouping.

Figure1

‐1.8%

‐9.9%

4.3%

6.9%

9.9%

7.8%

15.8%

12.9%

Low skill Lower middle skill Upper middle skill High skill

Actual and Projected U.S. Employment Change by Skill Group

Actual 2007‐2013

Projected 2012‐2022

7

Map1

Map2

Lost more than 10 percent

Lost up to 10 percent

Grew up to 5 percent

Grew 5 to 10 percent


Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Lower Middle Skill Jobs2007-2013

Lost up to 2.5 percent

Grew up to 5 percent



Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Upper Middle Skill Jobs2007-2013

8

Despitetheircomparativelyhigherratesofgrowth,uppermiddleskilloccupationswillnot

noticeablyincreasetheirshareofallU.S.jobsduringthenextdecade.BLSprojectionsshowupper

middleskilljobsgrowingfrom11percentto12percentofalljobsby2022.Lowermiddleskilljobs

willholdsteadyat24percent.Thetwomiddleskillcategoriescombinedwilladdnearly5.4million

newjobsby2022,withthenetnumberofnewjobssplitnearlyevenlybetweenuppermiddleand

lowermiddleskillcategories.

Manyexistingmiddleskilljobswillopenduringthenextdecadeasworkersretireorotherwise

permanentlyleavetheircurrentoccupations.AccordingtoBLSprojections,thenumberofmiddle

skilljobopeningsduetogrowthplusreplacementneedsmayexceed16.3millionjobsfrom2012‐

22.Lowermiddleskilloccupationswillaccountfor63percentofmiddleskilljobopeningsand20

percentofjobopeningsoverall.Uppermiddleskilloccupationswillaccountfor12percentofU.S.

jobopenings;highskilloccupationswillaccountfor22percent;andlowskilljobswillaccountfor

46percentofthenation’sjobopenings.

SECTION4:MEASURINGAMIDDLESKILLSGAPThissectionlooksatstate‐levelvariationsinseveralostensiblemeasuresofthemiddleskillsgap.

Twoalternativeskillsgapmeasuresareexaminedincontextwithotherindicatorsrelevanttothe

skillsgapdiscussionsuchasrecentratesofmiddleskilljobgrowthordecline,ratesofchangein

post‐secondaryeducationalprogramenrollment,andmigrationpatternsofmiddleskillworkers.

Anyevidenceofrelationshipsamongthesevariablesacrossstatesmighthelptoinformpolicy

responsesattheregionallevel.

4.1GAUGINGCURRENTMIDDLESKILLWORKERSUPPLYANDDEMANDAkeychallengeindetectingaskillsgapinvolvesfindingadequatemeasuresforthesupplyofand

demandformiddleskillworkersineachstate.Anidealmeasureofsupplywouldtakeintoaccount

thespecificskills,knowledge,andexperiencepossessedbylaborforcemembers–informationthat

couldonlybeobtainedfromsystematictestingordetailedsurveysofworkers.Anidealmeasureof

demandwouldquantifythespecificstaffingneedsanddesiresofemployers,includingbothfilled

andunfilledpositions.Forthisstudy,wemustrelyonsecondarydataforourmeasuresofboth

supplyanddemand,acceptingfromtheoutsetthattheyhaveseriouslimitations.Someofthese

limitationsarediscussedingreaterdetailinSection5.

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Eachstate’smiddleskillsupplyismeasuredusingtheestimatednumberof“middle‐educated”

workersinresidence.Theyincludelaborforcemembersbetween18‐64yearsofage,both

employedandunemployed,whopossessanassociatedegreeoranypost‐secondaryeducational

experiencebelowabachelor’sdegree.Forthismeasure,weusedatafromtheU.S.CensusBureau’s

CurrentPopulationSurvey.

Wedefinemiddleskilldemandastotalemploymentinlowermiddleanduppermiddleskill

occupations.State‐levelestimatesarederivedbysummingoccupationalemploymentestimates

fromtheBLSOccupationalEmploymentStatisticsProgram.

4.2SKILLSGAPRATIOSUsingourestimatesofmiddle‐educatedworkersandmiddleskilljobsbystate,weconstructtwo

alternativeratiostocomparemiddleskillworkersupplyanddemand.

GapRatio1:Ratio1simplycomparesthenumberofmiddle‐educatedworkerstothetotalnumberofmiddle

skilljobs.Nationally,therewereabout95middle‐educatedlaborforcemembersper100middle

skilljobsin2013.Iowa’sscoreonthismeasureequaledtheU.S.average.SeeMap1foran

illustrationofstate‐levelvaluesforthisindicator.

AglaringweaknessofRatio1isthat,bydefinition,wehaveincludedalargenumberofjobsinthe

denominatorwhileexcludingworkerswhomightholdthosejobsfromthenumerator.For

example,anyjobrequiringahighschooldiplomaandmoderatetolong‐termon‐the‐jobtrainingor

relatedworkexperienceiscountedtowardastate’smiddleskilljobdemand,butworkersmeeting

thosequalificationsareexcludedfromthemiddleskillworkersupplyiftheirformaleducation

endedwithhighschool.Thisisnomeremeasurementtrifle:thetypesofjobsinquestion(Skill

Groups4‐6)accountformorethan20percentofallU.S.occupations.

GapRatio2:GiventhefailureofRatio1tocaptureworkers’trainingandexperiencelevels,oursecondskillsgap

indicatorfocusesonthemoreeasilymeasurededucationalattainmentdimension.ForRatio2,we

firstconstructahypotheticalvaluefortheexpectednumberofmiddle‐educatedworkersbystate.

Theexpectedvaluesarederivedfromnationalstaffingpatternsshowingthedistributionof

workersbytheireducationalattainmentanddetailedoccupation.Table3illustratesthis

informationforasingleoccupation,showingthepercentageofweldersbytheirhighestdegree

attained.

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Table3

Foreachdetailedoccupation,wemultiplythestate’snumberofjobsbythepercentageexpectedto

havesomecollegeorassociatedegree,thensumacrossalloccupations.Workersineachstateare

assumedtofollowthenationaleducationaldistributionsbyoccupation.Theexpectedvaluesare

thencomparedtostate‐levelCPSestimatesformiddle‐educatedworkers.

TheU.S.averagevalueforGapRatio2was1.0,meaningthattheactualandexpectednumbersof

middle‐educatedworkersareroughlyequalatthenationallevel.Map2illustratesthevariationin

Ratio2bystate.Iowa’sscoreof1.1indicatesthatthestatehas10percentmoremiddle‐educated

workersthanmightbeexpectedgiventheoccupationaldistributionofitseconomy.

4.3INDIRECTSKILLSGAPINDICATORSUsingcurrentmiddleskillemploymentasaproxyforemployerdemandfailstoaddressthe

possibilityofunmetdemandformiddleskillworkers.Whileitisn’tpossibletomeasureunmet

demandusingsecondarydata,wecanlookforindirectevidencethatstatelabormarketsare

respondingtoemployers’demandcues.

Ifastate’smiddleskilllaborsupplyistight,marketforcesshouldworktoincreasetheregional

supplyofmiddleskillworkers.Possibleresponsesincludeeitherincreasedmigrationofnew

workerstoareaswherejobprospectsarepromising,orincreasedenrollmentineducational

programsthatprepareworkersforhigh‐demandjobs.Wehavecompiledskillsgapindicatorsto

addressbothofthesepossibilities.Thefirstindicatordescribesratesofnetdomesticmigration

amonglaborforcememberswithonetotwoyearsofcollege;andtheseconddescribesthe

percentagegrowthinnumberofpost‐secondaryeducationalprogramcompletionsinselected

areasofstudyrelevanttothemiddleskillsdebate.Forthenetmigrationofworkerswithsome

collegecredit,Iowa’srateof2/10thspercentperyearranked21stamongallstates.Iowa’s44

percentgrowthinprogramcompletionsjustexceededthenationalaverageof43percent.Maps5

and6displaystate‐levelvaluesforthesevariables.Appendix1containsamoredetailed

descriptionoftheeducationalprogramcompletionsdata.

Less than high

school diploma

High school

diploma or equivalent

Some college, no

degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree or

higher

Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 51-4121 22.6 49.5 20.2 5.8 2.0

2012 National Employment Matrix title and code

11

Map3

Map4

Ratio

Below 0.95 (U.S. average)

0.95 to 1.0

1.0 - 1.5

Hawaii

Alaska

Ratio of Labor Force Members with Some College or Associate Degree to Total Number of Middle Skill Jobs

Ratio

Under 100 percent

100 to 110 percent

110 to 125 percent

Hawaii

Alaska

Ratio of Actual to Expected Number of Workerswith Some College or Associate Degree

12

Map5

Map6

Decline

0 to 43 percent (U.S. average)

43 to 200 percent

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Selected Program Areas,

Pre-Recession (2005-2007) to Post-Recession (2011-2013)

Net migration rate

Loss

Gain < 1 percent

Gain of 1 percent or more

Hawaii

Alaska

Net Domestic Migration Rate for Residents withSome College/Associate's Degree (2011-13)

13

4.4CORRELATINGTHEMIDDLESKILLSINDICATORSAssumingthatourmiddle‐skillsindicatorsaretrulycapturingvariationinaskillsgapbystate,the

variationsshouldfollowsomesortoflogicalpattern.Inparticular,weposethefollowing

hypotheses:

Stateswithgreaterlossesorslowergrowthinmiddleskilljobsshouldhavealargerpoolof

availablemiddleskillworkersandasmallerskillsgap.

Statesaddingmiddleskilljobsrapidlyshouldhaveatightersupplyofmiddleskillworkers

andalargerskillsgap.

Stateswithlargermiddleskillsgapshouldbeseeingincreasedin‐migrationofmiddle‐

educatedworkers.

Stateswithgreatermiddleskillsgapshouldbeseeingincreasedenrollmentratesinpost‐

secondaryeducationalprograms.

Weranacorrelationanalysisonsixmiddle‐skillsindicatorstodetermineifpatternsareevidentin

thevariationsacrossthestates.Theresultswereunderwhelming.Althoughourtwoostensible

skillsgapmeasures(R1andR2)correlatedstronglyandpositivelywitheachother,neitherskills

gapmeasurecorrelatedmeaningfullywithratesofrecentmiddleskilljobchange,netmigration

ratesofmiddle‐educatedworkers,orratesofchangeinpost‐secondaryeducationalprogram

completionsinkeymiddleskillareas.ThecorrelationresultsarepresentedinTable4.Correlation

valuesbelow0.40percentaregenerallyconsideredtobeweak.

Table4

M1: Ratio of middle‐educated workers to middle

skill jobs

M2: Ratio of actual to

expected middle‐educated workers

R1 ‐ ratio middle‐educated workers to middle skill jobs 1.00)

R2 ‐ ratio actual to expected middle‐educated workers .87) 1.00)

% change lower middle skill jobs 2007‐13 (.24) (.05)

% change upper middle skill jobs 2007‐13 (.09) (.04)

% change gap completions pre and post‐ recession .25) .19)

Net migration rate of residents w/some college (.06) (.01)

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SECTION5:CAUTIONSANDCONCLUSIONS

5.1LIMITATIONSOFANALYSISUSINGSECONDARYDATA

Notallworkersmatchthe“typical”educationprofileoftheiroccupation.Middleskilljobtabulationsthatrelyonoccupationalemploymentstatisticsgenerallyrequirean

assumptionthatworkerswithinagivenoccupationconformtoastandardeducationalprofile.

NationalstaffingpatternsdatafromBLSsuggestamorecomplicatedpictureoftheworkforce,as

Table3demonstratedforwelding‐relatedoccupations.WhilethetypicalweldingjobintheU.S.

requiresahighschooldiploma,nearly23percentofU.S.weldershavelessthanahighschool

educationand28percenthaveatleastsomecollegeexperience.

AnalysisofBLSdatarevealsthatnearlyhalfoflowskilljobs,manyofwhichrequirelessthanahigh

schooldiploma,arefilledbyworkerswithpost‐secondaryeducationalattainment.Conversely,

aboutonequarterofthenation’shighskilljobsarestaffedbypeoplewithlessthanabachelor’s

degree.Workerswhofitthetypicaleducationalprofileformiddleskilloccupationsaccountfor

fewerthanhalfofallworkersinmiddleskilljobs(seeFigure2).Asaconsequence,wecan’t

necessarilyinferaggregateeducationalrequirementsfromstatewideoccupationaldistributions.

Educationalattainmentisaweakproxyforworkerskills.Availablesecondarydataoneducationalattainmentfailstodescribetheskillsofworkerswhomay

haveextensivetrainingorrelatedworkexperiencebutnoformaleducationbeyondhighschool.

Still,manystudiesincludingthisonecomparecertificateordegreecompletionsagainstspecific

occupationseventhoughmanyoccupationscanbestaffedbyarangeofpeoplewith

apprenticeships,on‐the‐jobtraining,orthroughincrementalskillbuildingwithinafirm.Without

bettermetrics,byrelyingonlyoneducationalcompletions,onewouldactuallyexpecton‐paper

supplyshortagesrelativetooccupationaldemands.Accordingly,whenanalyzingexisting(and

projected)skillsgapsoneneedsabroadermeasureofworkersupplythandegreeorcertificate

completion.

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Figure2

Currentemploymentlevelsarenotthesameasworkerdemand.Employmentstatisticscountthenumberofjobsthatarecurrentlyfilledratherthanthenumberof

workersdemandedbyemployers.Consequently,jobcountsaremorereflectiveofdemandthathas

alreadybeensatisfied.Skills“gap”isamisleadingandinsultinglabelforthedifferencebetween

currentemploymentlevelsandthenumberofpeoplewithsomedesiredtraitbecauseitsuggests

thecurrentemployeesareunqualifiedforthepositionstheyhold.

Occupationalemploymentchangedoesnotequatetoskilldemandchange.Theintegrationofnewtechnologiesbyfirmsrequiresnewskillacquisitionbytheircurrentand

futureworkers.Suchtechnologychangesmayoutpaceofficialoccupationalclassifications.Ina

recentredefinitionoftheStandardOccupationalClassificationsystem,453outofthesystem’s840

detailedoccupationshaddefinitionchanges,andmanyofthosedefinitionswereeditedtoaccount

forchangesintechnology.Consequently,occupationalemploymentchangesandprojectionsbased

ontoday’sdefinitionsmayfailtocapturechangesintheskilltypesandlevelsthatarebeing

demandedofworkers.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Low LowerMiddle

UpperMiddle

High

Percen

tage of Skill G

roup W

orkers

Occupational Skill Group

Estimated Distribution of U.S. Workers by Educational Attainmentby Job Skill Grouping, 2013

Advanced degree

Bachelor's degree

Some college/Associate degree

High School

Less than High School

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5.2CONCLUSIONS

Followingarekeyfindingsfromouranalysisofstateandnationaloccupationalemploymentand

educationalattainmentdata:

Employmentchangesfrom2007‐2013suggestevidenceofshiftingamongso‐calledmiddleskill

occupationsintheU.S.,withmorerapidgrowthoccurringinoccupationsthatrequirehigher

levelsofeducationalattainment.

Overall,middleskilljobshavenotdemonstrablyincreasedtheirshareoftheU.S.economyin

recentyears.Gainsinjobsthatrequiresomepost‐secondaryeducationbelowabachelor’s

degreecouldnotoffsetlossesinjobsthatrequirejustahighschooldiplomawithmoderateor

long‐termtrainingorrelatedworkexperience.

IowafaredbetterthantheU.S.inratesoflowermiddleskilljoblossanduppermiddleskilljob

gainsfrom2007‐13.

Forevery100middleskilljobsinIowa,includingthoserequiringnoformalpost‐secondary

education,Iowahasapproximately95workerswithsomeeducationbeyondhighschoolbut

belowabachelor’sdegree,referredtointhisstudyasmiddle‐educatedworkers.Thenational

averageratiowasalso95middle‐educatedworkersper100jobs.

Givenitsoccupationalstructure,Iowa’ssupplyofmiddle‐educatedworkersisabouttenpercent

higherthanexpectedbasedonthetypicaleducationalattainmentofU.S.workersinthesame

occupations.

Iowaslightlyexceedednationalaveragegrowthratesinpost‐secondaryeducationalprogram

completionsinasetoftechnologyareasrelatedtomiddleskilloccupations.

Netdomesticin‐migrationhasincreasedIowa’ssupplyofmiddle‐educatedworkersbyabout

twotenthsofonepercentperyearfrom2010‐13.

Nomeaningfulcorrelationsexistedbetweenstate‐levelindicatorsofmiddleskillsgap,ratesof

middleskilljobchange,post‐secondarycompletions,andnetmigrationofmiddle‐educated

workers.

Thisresearchdemonstratesthelimitationsofusingeducationalattainmentandoccupational

employmentstatisticstomeasuretheskillcontentoftheworkforce.Althoughrelativelyeasyto

construct,suchmeasuresappeartocontributeinformationoflittlevalueforpolicypurposes.We

concludethatproducingcredibleevidenceofamiddleskillsgaprequiresanalyticaland

definitional‐specificitythatissimplynotpossibleusingstateorregionalsecondarydata.

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18

APPENDIX:POST‐SECONDARYEDUCATIONALPROGRAMCOMPLETIONS

DatafromtheNationalCenterforEducationStatisticsIntegratedPost‐SecondaryEducationalData

System(IPEDS)werecompiledatthestateleveltoexaminerecentpatternsofchangeinthe

numberandtypeofeducationalprogramcompletionsbelowthebachelor’sdegreelevel.Average

annualcompletionsatallinstitutionsineachstatewerecalculatedfortwodifferenttimeperiods:

pre‐recession(2005‐2007)andpost‐recession(2011‐2013).Inadditiontotheaverageforall

programsunder4years,wealsocalculatedaveragesforasubsetofprogramareasdeemed

relevanttoadiscussionofmiddleskills.Followingarethespecificprogramareasselected:

MIDDLESKILLSPROGRAMAREAS Computerandinformationsciencesandsupportservices

Engineeringtechnologiesandengineering‐relatedfields

Constructiontrades

Mechanicandrepairtechnologiesandtechnicians

Precisionproduction

Transportationandmaterialsmoving

Healthprofessionsandrelatedprograms

Business,management,marketing,andrelatedsupportservices

Maps9‐14showstate‐levelpercentagechangesincompletionsfortheprogramgroupingslisted

above.Map15showsthegrowthincompletionsforallprogramsunder4years,includingthe

middleskillsprogramareasandallotherprogramareas.

ComparedtoU.S.averages,Iowasawfastergrowthinmechanicandrepairtechnologiesand

technicians;precisionproduction;transportationandmaterialsmoving;andbusiness,

management,marketing,andrelatedsupportservices.Iowahadslowergrowthincomputerand

informationsciencesandsupportservices;engineeringtechnologiesandengineering‐relatedfields;

constructiontrades;andhealthprofessionsandrelatedprograms.Iowaalsogrewmoreslowlyin

theoverallrateofcompletionsinpost‐secondaryeducationalprogramsbelowthebachelor’slevel.

19

Map7

Map8

Below 31 percent (U.S. average)

31 to 62 percent

Above 62 percent

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Computer-Related Programs, Pre-Recession (2005-2007) to Post-Recession (2011-2013)


40 to 80 percent

Above 80 percent

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Engineering-Related Programs,


20

Map9

Map10

Decline


Above 33 percent

No data

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Construction Trades Programs,



41 to 82 percent

Above 82 percent

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Mechanic/Repair Programs, Pre-Recession (2005-2007) to Post-Recession (2011-2013)

21

Map11

Map12


111 to 200 percent

Above 200 percent

No data

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Precision Production,


Decline


Above 11 percent

No data

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Transportation-Related Programs,


22

Map13

Map14

Below 26 percent (half of U.S. average)

26 to 52 percent

Above 52 percent

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Health & Related Professions, Pre-Recession (2005-2007) to Post-Recession (2011-2013)


23 to 46 percent

Above 46 percent

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in Business-Related Programs, Pre-Recession (2005-2007) to Post-Recession (2011-2013)

23

Map15

Below 22.5 percent (half of U.S. average)

22.5 to 45 percent (U.S. average)

Above 45 percent

Hawaii

Alaska

Percentage Change in Average Annual Post-SecondaryEducational Completions in All Programs <4YRS,


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