skema coordination action - eutravelproject.eu · participant in the skema consortium make no...

Oil Price Scenarios and Energy Efficiency in Maritime Transport and Logistics

© SKEMA 10th Jun. 2011

SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME

SST–2007–TREN–1 - SST.2007.2.2.4. Maritime and logistics co-ordination platform

SKEMA Coordination Action

“Sustainable Knowledge Platform for the European Maritime and Logistics

Industry”

Deliverable: Oil Price Scenarios and Energy Efficiency in Maritime Transport and

Logistics

Dissemination Level: PU (Public) Contract No. 218565 Project Start Date: 16th June 2008 End Date: 15th May 2011 Co-ordinator: Athens University of Economics and Business

Document summary information



Version Authors Description Date

0.1 Hanna Askola, Jarkko Lehtinen, Tapio Nyman

Draft report 8. June 2011

0.2 Antti Permala Review

1.0 Hanna Askola Final 10. June 2011

Quality Control

Who Date

Checked by Peer Review/edited AUEB 14/6/11

Checked by Quality Manager Antti Permala 10. June 2011

Approved by Project Manager Takis Katsoulakos 15//6/11

Disclaimer

The content of the publication herein is the sole responsibility of the publishers and it does not necessarily represent the views expressed by the European Commission or its services. While the information contained in the documents is believed to be accurate, the authors(s) or any other participant in the SKEMA consortium make no warranty of any kind with regard to this material. Neither the SKEMA Consortium nor any of its members, their officers, employees or agents shall be responsible or liable for negligence or in respect of any inaccuracy or omission, or for any direct or indirect or consequential loss or damage caused by or arising from any information herein.



Executive Summary

The analysis shows that scenarios of oil price vary between normal and moderate

changes. It seems like most experts do not predict dramatic price changes or shrinking

oil production on the long run.

World market energy consumption is estimated to increase by 49 per cent from 2007

to 2035. Total energy demand in non-OECD countries increases by 84 per cent,

compared with an increase of 14 per cent in OECD countries.

The world is highly dependent on oil as an energy source. Highly variable oil prices

have alerted nations and individual consumers to notice the impact of oil, especially

during the past few years. Alternative energy sources and new technologies are

developed and implemented as reactive means to decrease dependency.

In this review energy scenarios and markets are shortly presented. Three different oil

price scenarios of high, reference and low oil prices are presented. Additionally,

energy consumption scenarios in industrial and transport sectors are clarified.

Transport sector consumes almost 20 per cent of the world’s total delivered energy.

Volumes of cargos, variation in delivery time demands and freight rates direct goods

to different transport modes. This review concentrates on container trade by sea and

rail.

Innovative solutions to reduce maritime fuel costs are also presented. Sustainable

transport and especially sulphur emission limits challenge companies to develop and

implement new technologies, such as kites, fins and hull coatings.



Contents

Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... 3

Introduction .................................................................................................................... 6

1. Review of energy scenarios on global level .......................................................... 7

2. World energy markets by fuel type ........................................................................ 9

2.1. Liquid fuels ......................................................................................................... 9

2.2. Coal ................................................................................................................. 9

2.3. Natural gas ........................................................................................................ 10

2.4. Renewable Energy Sources ........................................................................... 11

3. Alternative Oil Price cases ................................................................................... 13

3.1. Producers, net exporters and net importers of crude oil ................................... 15

3.2. Review of European Economic Outlook .......................................................... 16

4. Energy Consumption ........................................................................................... 18

4.1. Industrial Sector Energy Consumption ............................................................. 18

4.1.1. Industrial Sector Energy in OECD Europe ................................................ 19

4.2. Transportation Sector Energy Consumption ..................................................... 20

5. Transportation .......................................................................................................... 23

5.1. Asian-European Container Transportation ....................................................... 24

5.1.1. Asia-Europe rail freights ............................................................................ 26

5.1.2. Deep-sea Container freights ....................................................................... 27

6. Alternative Energy Choices in Sea Transportation .............................................. 31

6.1. Sustainable transports .................................................................................... 31

6.2. Innovative solutions to reduce fuel costs and to comply with the

environmental requirements..................................................................................... 34

6.2.1 Use of LNG fuel.......................................................................................... 34

6.2.2. Scrubber technology .................................................................................. 36

6.2.3. Use of wind power ..................................................................................... 36

6.2.4. Other innovative power sources................................................................. 37

6.3.5. Environmentally friendly hull coating ....................................................... 38

7. Conclusions of the Trends ....................................................................................... 40

References .................................................................................................................... 42

Glossary



BAF Bunker Adjustment Factor BRE Brent Oil Btu British Thermal Unit CO2 Carbon Dioxide CAF Currency Adjustment Factor DNV Det Norske Veritas GDP Gross Domestic Product EEDI Energy Efficiency Design Index EEOI Energy Efficiency Operation Indicator ECA Emission Control Area EIA Energy Information Administration EJ Exajoule EU European Union FRE Freight Rate HFO Heavy Fuel Oil HSC High Speed Craft ICT Information and Communication Technology IEA International Energy Agency IEO2010 International Energy Outlook 2010 IFO380 Intermediate Fuel Oil 380 IMO International Maritime Organization LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas MARPOL International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution From Ships MCR Maximum Continuous Rating MDO Marine Diesel Oil MGO Marine Gas Oil Mtoe Million Tons of Oil Equivalents NOx Nitrogen oxide OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PM Particulate Matter/Material SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction SECA Sulphur Emission Control Area SEEMP Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan SO2 Sulphur Dioxide TEMS Transportation Economics & Management Systems TEU Twenty foot Equivalent Unit TSR Trans-Siberian Railway TWh Terawatt hour UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development



Introduction

The purpose of this paper is to consider the future changes in energy consumption in

maritime transport and logistics. The data used is based on reports of different well

known institutes and recent articles. The purpose is to understand the potential of

dramatic oil price changes in the market. The time scale is to year 2035.

Energy consumption of the world is estimated to increase by 49 per cent from 2007 to

2035. Total energy demand in non-OECD countries is predicted to increase by 84 per

cent, compared with an increase of 14 per cent in OECD countries.

Transport sector consumes almost 20 per cent of the world’s total delivered energy.

Volumes of cargos, variation in delivery time demands and freight rates direct goods

to different modes. Innovative solutions reduce maritime fuel costs and consumption.


© SKEMA

1. Review of energy sce

It is expected that the consumption of energy increases about 50 % from 2007 to

2035. The following figure

regular.

Figure 1: World marketed energy consumption, 1990

World consumption of marketed energy

over the 2007-2035 projection

continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. Al

the largest source of energy, the liquids share of world marketed energy consumption

falls from 35 per cent in 2007 to 30 per

prices lead many energy users to switch away from liquid fuel


Review of energy scenarios on global level


figure (Figure 1) shows that the increase is quite progressive and

World marketed energy consumption, 1990-2035 (quadrillion Btu) (EI

orld consumption of marketed energy is estimated to increase from all fuel sources

2035 projection periods (Figure 2). Fossil fuels are expected to

continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. Although liquid fuels remain


cent in 2007 to 30 per cent in 2035, as projected high world oil

prices lead many energy users to switch away from liquid fuels when feasible.


10th Jun. 2011

narios on global level


is quite progressive and

IA 2010).

increase from all fuel sources

). Fossil fuels are expected to

though liquid fuels remain


cent in 2035, as projected high world oil

s when feasible.


© SKEMA

Figure 2: World marketed energy use by fuel type, 1990

World’s net electricity generation

trillion kilowatt-hours in 2007 to

kilowatt-hours in 2035 (Figure

electricity demand in 2008 and

general, in OECD countries, where electricity markets are well established and

consumption patterns are mature, the growth of electricity demand is slower than in

non-OECD countries, where a large amo

2010).

Figure 3: World net electricity generation by fuel, 2007


World marketed energy use by fuel type, 1990-2035 (quadrillion Btu) (

net electricity generation is estimated to increase by 87 per cent from 18.8

hours in 2007 to 25.0 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2020, and 35.2 trillion

Figure 3). Although the recession slowed the growth in

electricity demand in 2008 and 2009, growth returns to pre-recession rates by 2015. In



OECD countries, where a large amount of potential demand remains unmet.

World net electricity generation by fuel, 2007-2035 (trillion kilowatt- hours)


10th Jun. 2011

(EIA 2010).

cent from 18.8

and 35.2 trillion

). Although the recession slowed the growth in

recession rates by 2015. In



unt of potential demand remains unmet. (EIA

hours) (EIA 2010).


© SKEMA

2. World energy markets by fuel type

2.1. Liquid fuels

Oil and oil products remain

importance in the transportation and

liquids and other petroleum

92.1 million barrels per day in

per day in 2030 and 110.6 million barrels per day in 2035

Figure 4: World liquids production, 1990

On a global basis, liquids consumption remains flat in the building sector, increases

modestly in the industrial sector, but declines in the electric power sector

generators are reacting to rising world oil prices by switching to alternative fuels

whenever possible. Despite rising prices consumption

transportation sector is estimated to increase

and 45 per cent overall from 2007 to 2035.

2.2. Coal

In the absence of national policies and/or binding international agreements

would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected

to increase from 132 quadrillion Btu


World energy markets by fuel type

remain as the world’s largest energy source because of their

importance in the transportation and industrial end-use sectors. Consumption

liquids and other petroleum has grown from 86.1 million barrels per day in 2007 to

92.1 million barrels per day in 2020, and is estimated to grow to 103.9

and 110.6 million barrels per day in 2035 (Figure 4).

World liquids production, 1990-2035 (million barrels per day) (EIA 2010).


modestly in the industrial sector, but declines in the electric power sector

to rising world oil prices by switching to alternative fuels

Despite rising prices consumption of liquid fuels in the

transportation sector is estimated to increase by an average of 1.3 per cent per year,

nt overall from 2007 to 2035. (EIA 2010).

In the absence of national policies and/or binding international agreements


to increase from 132 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 206 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an


10th Jun. 2011

the world’s largest energy source because of their

use sectors. Consumption of

from 86.1 million barrels per day in 2007 to

103.9 million barrels

A 2010).


modestly in the industrial sector, but declines in the electric power sector. Electricity

to rising world oil prices by switching to alternative fuels

in the

cent per year,

In the absence of national policies and/or binding international agreements which


in 2007 to 206 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an


© SKEMA

average annual rate of 1.6 per

consumption is estimated to

of the total net increase in

Increasing demand for energy to fuel electricity generation and industrial production

in Asia is expected to be met in large part b

Figure 5: World coal consumption by region, 1990

2.3. Natural gas

Liquefied natural gas (LNG)

108 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. In 2009, world natural

gas consumption declined by an estimated 1.1 per

industrial sector fell even more sharply, by 6.0 per

goods declined during the recession. The industrial sector currently consumes more

natural gas than any other end

largest user through 2035

estimated to be consumed for industrial purposes. Electricity generation is

another important use for natural gas throughout the projection, and its share of the

world’s total natural gas consumption increases from 33 per

cent in 2035. (EIA 2010).

According to IEA’s Gas Scenario

in the future (Figure 6). The newest scenario shows that LNG might displace


average annual rate of 1.6 per cent. Much of the projected increase in coal

is estimated to occur in non-OECD Asia, which accounts for 95 per

of the total net increase in the world coal consumption from 2007 to 2035 (


is expected to be met in large part by coal. (EIA 2010).

World coal consumption by region, 1990-2035 (quadrillion Btu) (EIA 2010).

(LNG) consumption is estimated to increase by 44 per

feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. In 2009, world natural

gas consumption declined by an estimated 1.1 per cent, and natural gas use in the

industrial sector fell even more sharply, by 6.0 per cent, as demand for manufactured

uring the recession. The industrial sector currently consumes more

natural gas than any other end-use sector, and in the projection it continues as the

when 39 per cent of the world’s natural gas supply is

consumed for industrial purposes. Electricity generation is


world’s total natural gas consumption increases from 33 per cent in 2007 to 36 per

IEA’s Gas Scenario (2011) LNG is predicted to have an import

). The newest scenario shows that LNG might displace


10th Jun. 2011

cent. Much of the projected increase in coal

OECD Asia, which accounts for 95 per cent

from 2007 to 2035 (Figure 5).


A 2010).

increase by 44 per cent from

feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035. In 2009, world natural

cent, and natural gas use in the

cent, as demand for manufactured

uring the recession. The industrial sector currently consumes more

use sector, and in the projection it continues as the

cent of the world’s natural gas supply is

consumed for industrial purposes. Electricity generation is rated as


cent in 2007 to 36 per

have an important role

). The newest scenario shows that LNG might displace coal as



an energy source, when big Asian industrial countries are estimated to exploit their

natural gas resources in the future. Lower emissions of greenhouse gases and local

pollutants are beneficial for LNG compared with other fossil fuels. Current and future

policy choices, technological capability and market conditions are all advantageous to

increasing natural gas utilization. (IEA 2011a).

Figure 6: World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the Gas Scenario (IEA 2011a)

2.4. Renewable Energy Sources

Proportionally the biggest renewable energy source was hydro power in 2008 (Figure

7). A minor share included sea energy from tides, waves and oceans, geothermal,

solar and wind energy, and bioenergy including biofuels, biomass and waste.

IEA’s BLUE MAP Scenario takes renewable energy sources into account as potential

energy of future. BLUE MAP has set a goal of halving global energy-related CO2

emissions from year 2005 level by year 2050. Revolutionary growth in wind, solar,

geothermal and bioenergy technologies are required. The Figure 7 also shows that

especially bioenergy and wind based renewable energy generation are expected to

increase remarkably by 2020. (IEA 2011b).



Figure 7: Global Power Generation from Renewable Sources vs. BLUE MAP Scenario (IEA

2011b)

Global biofuels production grew from 16 billion litres in 2000 to more than 100

billion litres in 2010. The development of biofuel technologies could enable a rapid

increase described in Figure 8, and in the next ten years current demonstration plants

can be transferred to commercial-scale production. (IEA 2011b).

Figure 8: BLUE MAP. IEA biofuel roadmap’s vision for biofuel supply, 2010-2050 (IEA 2011b).


© SKEMA

3. Al ternative Oil Pr ice cases

Historically, oil price has been increasing slowly. However, oil price shocks

occurred as impacts of unpredictable events (

East wars have caused price peaks between 1970 and 2004. The growth in oil demand

began to impact oil prices in 2003. Recently, world demand is considered to have

become a significant influence on oil prices for the first time. Since 2008 the price

shock has somewhat decreased (

Figure 9: Major events and Nominal World Oil Prices, 1970

Cost (TEMS 2008).

Assumptions about world oil prices are an important factor that underscores the

considerable uncertainty in long

different assumptions about future oil prices are illustrated by two alternative oil pri

cases. In the High Oil Price case, world oil prices (in real 2008 dollars) climb from

$59 per barrel in 2009 to $210 per barrel in 2035

decline to $52 per barrel in 2015 and remain ap

2035. In comparison, world oil prices rise to $133 per barrel in 2035 in the Reference

case (Figure 10).


Alternative Oil Pr ice cases

Historically, oil price has been increasing slowly. However, oil price shocks

as impacts of unpredictable events (Figure 9). Actions of OPEC and Middle




as somewhat decreased (Figure 11).

Major events and Nominal World Oil Prices, 1970-2008: Imported Refiner Acquisition


considerable uncertainty in long-term energy market projections. The effects of

different assumptions about future oil prices are illustrated by two alternative oil pri


$59 per barrel in 2009 to $210 per barrel in 2035. In the Low Oil Price case,

decline to $52 per barrel in 2015 and remain approximately at that real level unti



10th Jun. 2011

Historically, oil price has been increasing slowly. However, oil price shocks have

). Actions of OPEC and Middle




Refiner Acquisition


term energy market projections. The effects of

different assumptions about future oil prices are illustrated by two alternative oil price


n the Low Oil Price case, prices

proximately at that real level until



© SKEMA

Figure 10: IEO2010 Reference C

(2007 dollars per barrel) (EIA 2010).

Although the difference in world oil prices between the High and Low Oil Price cases

is considerable, the projections for total world energy consumption

vary substantially among the cases. The most substantial impacts of the high and low

oil price assumptions are on the mix of energy fuels consumed in each region

particularly fossil fuels.

In the IEO2010 Reference case, world oil prices be

$133 per barrel by 2035. As a result, liquids consumption is curtailed in countries that

have other fuel options available

and other fuels can be substituted. In the Low O

use of liquids for transportation, and there is less incentive for movement away from

liquids to other energy sources in sectors where fuel substitution is fairly easy to

achieve (for example, electricity).

The following figure (Figure

future prices (4.3.2011). The figure shows the expectations of the market to four


IEO2010 Reference Case. World Oil Prices in three Oil Price Cases from

A 2010).


is considerable, the projections for total world energy consumption in 2035 do not


oil price assumptions are on the mix of energy fuels consumed in each region

ence case, world oil prices begin to rise after 2009 and reach


have other fuel options available—especially in the electric power sector, where coal

and other fuels can be substituted. In the Low Oil Price case, consumers increase their



achieve (for example, electricity).

Figure 11) presents the Platt's prices for Brent raw



10th Jun. 2011

ases from 1990 to 2035


in 2035 do not


oil price assumptions are on the mix of energy fuels consumed in each region—

n to rise after 2009 and reach


especially in the electric power sector, where coal

il Price case, consumers increase their



presents the Platt's prices for Brent raw-oil and



© SKEMA

coming years. This indicates that the market does not expect radical increase for

prices.

Figure 11: Prices for Brent Raw

3.1. Producers, net exporters and net importers of crude oil

The following table (Table

crude oil. It clearly shows that

United States is also a producer,

was the biggest producer of crude oil

after Saudi Arabia. (IEA 2010).


ears. This indicates that the market does not expect radical increase for

aw-oil and Future Prices for four Years (IEA 2010).

3.1. Producers, net exporters and net importers of crude oil

Table 1) presents the main producers, exporters and importers of

crude oil. It clearly shows that the Europe is a net importer of crude oil. Though t

producer, it is the biggest importer of crude oil as well

the biggest producer of crude oil in 2009, and it is the second biggest exporter

(IEA 2010).


10th Jun. 2011

ears. This indicates that the market does not expect radical increase for

(IEA 2010).

) presents the main producers, exporters and importers of

importer of crude oil. Though the

as well. Russia

, and it is the second biggest exporter



Table 1: Producers, net exporters and net importers of crude oil (IEA 2010).

3.2. Review of European Economic Outlook

Economic growth is among the most important factors to be considered in projecting

changes in world energy consumption. Starting in 2008, the world experienced its

worst recession of the past 60 years. Although it appears that recovery has begun, its

strength and timing are not entirely clear. The emerging economies of Asia appear to

be recovering quickly. The advanced economies, particularly the European countries

and Japan, are improving much more slowly and have had concerns about a return to

recession in the short term.

In 2010, economic growth in Europe is expected to average only by 1.0 per cent.

Several economies in the region, notably those of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland,

are currently carrying very high debt levels. Greece accounts for less than 3 per cent

of the European Union’s total GDP, but signs of structural problems in the economies

of Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and to a lesser extent Italy may weigh heavily on the

economic recovery of OECD Europe as a whole. It is estimated that total GDP in

OECD Europe does not recover to its 2007 level until 2012. Economic growth in the

region averages 1.7 per cent per year from 2007 to 2035, well below the increase of

2.0 per cent per year for the OECD as a whole (figure 14).


© SKEMA

Figure 12: OECD and Non-OECD total gross domestic product, 1990

dollars) (EIA 2010).


OECD total gross domestic product, 1990-2035 (trillion 2005 U.S.


10th Jun. 2011

2035 (trillion 2005 U.S.


© SKEMA

4. Energy Consumption

4.1. Industrial Sector Energy Consumption

Worldwide industrial energy consumption

Reference case by 42 per cent, or an average of 1.3 per

2035. Ninety-five per cent of the gro

year projection, worldwide industrial energy consumption

184 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 262 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (

Reference case, world industrial energy demand increases at an average annual rate of

1.3 per cent through 2035.

Table 2: World industrial delivered energy consumption by region and e

(quadrillion Btu) (EIA 2010).

Most of the long-term growth in industrial sector energy demand occurs in non

OECD nations (Figure 13)

global delivered energy in the industrial sector. From 2007 to 2035, industrial energy

use in non-OECD countries

year, compared with 0.2 per

growth in industrial energy use from 2007 to 2035 in the IEO2010 Reference case


Energy Consumption

Industrial Sector Energy Consumption

Worldwide industrial energy consumption is estimated to increase in the IEO2010

cent, or an average of 1.3 per cent per year, from 2007 to

cent of the growth occurs in non-OECD nations.

year projection, worldwide industrial energy consumption is predicted to grow

184 quadrillion Btu in 2007 to 262 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Table 2). In the IEO2010


cent through 2035.

World industrial delivered energy consumption by region and energy source, 2007

term growth in industrial sector energy demand occurs in non

). Currently, non- OECD economies consume 60 per


OECD countries is estimated to grow by an average of 1.8 per

year, compared with 0.2 per cent per year in OECD countries. Thus, 95 per



10th Jun. 2011

in the IEO2010

cent per year, from 2007 to

OECD nations. Over the 28-

is predicted to grow from

). In the IEO2010


nergy source, 2007-2035

term growth in industrial sector energy demand occurs in non-

OECD economies consume 60 per cent of


grow by an average of 1.8 per cent per

in OECD countries. Thus, 95 per cent of the



© SKEMA

occurs in non-OECD countries, and non

delivered energy in the world’s industrial sector i

Figure 13: OECD and Non-OECD industrial sector energy consumption, 2007

Btu) (EIA 2010).

4.1.1. Industrial Sector Energy

Energy and environmental policies are significant factors behind the trends in

Europe industrial energy consumption

passed the “20-20-20” plan, which stipulated a 20

gas emissions, a 20-percent improvement in energy efficiency, and a 20

for renewables in the fuel mix of European Union member countries by 2020.

OECD Europe continues its transition to a service economy, as its commercial sector

energy use grows by 0.8 per

per cent per year. Climate change policy is expected to affect the mix of fuels

consumed in OECD Europe’s industrial sector, with coal use contracting at an

average rate of 1.6 per cent per

of electric power in OECD Europe’s industrial

low-carbon sources also rises.

In debates on the plan, representatives of energy

concern about the price of carbon allocations. They argued that fully auctioning

carbon dioxide permits to heavy industrial enterprises exposed to global competition


OECD countries, and non-OECD nations consume 71 per

delivered energy in the world’s industrial sector in 2035. (EIA 2010).

OECD industrial sector energy consumption, 2007-2035 (quadrillion

Industrial Sector Energy in OECD Europe

Energy and environmental policies are significant factors behind the trends in

Europe industrial energy consumption. In December 2008, the European Parliament

20” plan, which stipulated a 20-percent reduction in greenhouse

percent improvement in energy efficiency, and a 20



0.8 per cent per year while industrial energy use contracts by 0.3

cent per year. Climate change policy is expected to affect the mix of fuels


cent per year, while the use of renewables increases. The use

of electric power in OECD Europe’s industrial sector increasingly generated from

carbon sources also rises.

In debates on the plan, representatives of energy-intensive industries announced




10th Jun. 2011

OECD nations consume 71 per cent of total

2035 (quadrillion

Energy and environmental policies are significant factors behind the trends in OECD

. In December 2008, the European Parliament

percent reduction in greenhouse

percent improvement in energy efficiency, and a 20-percent share



cent per year while industrial energy use contracts by 0.3

cent per year. Climate change policy is expected to affect the mix of fuels


year, while the use of renewables increases. The use

increasingly generated from

announced





would simply drive industrial production from Europe and slow carbon abatement

efforts at the global level. The resulting compromise was an agreement that 100 per

cent of carbon allowances would be given free of charge to industries that are exposed

to such “carbon leakage,” provided that they adhere to efficiency benchmarks. (EIA

2010).

4.2. Transportation Sector Energy Consumption

Transportation sector energy consumption includes the energy consumed in moving

people and goods by all transport means. Transportation energy use in non-OECD

countries is estimated to increase by an average of 2.6 per cent per year from 2007 to

2035, as compared with an average of 0.3 per cent per year for OECD countries.

Almost 20 per cent of the world’s total delivered energy is used in the transportation

sector, where liquid fuels are the dominant source. Transportation accounts for more

than 50 per cent of world consumption of liquid oil fuels, and its share increases over

the projection period. The transportation share of total liquid fuels consumption

increases to 61 per cent in 2035, as their share declines in the other end-use sectors.

Oil liquids play a key role in the world transportation sector, and therefore

understanding how the sector is likely to evolve could be the most important factor in

assessing the future of liquid fuel markets. From 2007 to 2035, growth in

transportation energy consumption is predicted to account for 87 per cent of the total

increase in world liquids consumption (Figure 14).


© SKEMA

Figure 14: World liquids consumption by end

World oil prices reached historic high levels in 2008, in part because of a strong

increase in demand for transportation fuels, particularly in the emerging non

economies (Figure 9). Non

in 2007 and 7.3 per cent in 2008. Even

OECD transportation energy use grew by an estimated 3.2 per

many countries—especially oil

fuel subsidies to their citizens. I

transportation energy use grows by 2.6 per

2035 (Figure 15: Table 2).

The impact of high oil prices and the economic recession has been more profound in

OECD economies than in non

nations declined by an estimated 1.3 per

estimated at 2.0 per cent in 2009. Indications

recession in transportation energy

slow, despite the United S

a number of new policy measures to increase the

taxation regimes to encourage fuel conservation.

energy consumption is estimated to

projection period and is not expected to return to its 2007 level until after 2020

3). (EIA 2010).


World liquids consumption by end-use sector, 2007-2035 (quadrillion Btu)


transportation fuels, particularly in the emerging non

. Non-OECD energy use for transportation increased 4.5 per

t in 2008. Even during economic recession in 2009, non

OECD transportation energy use grew by an estimated 3.2 per cent, in part because

especially oil-rich nations, but others as well—continued to provide

fuel subsidies to their citizens. In the IEO2010 Reference case, non-OECD

transportation energy use grows by 2.6 per cent per year on average from 2007 to

).


OECD economies than in non-OECD economies. Transportation energy use in OECD

estimated 1.3 per cent in 2008, followed by a further decrease

cent in 2009. Indications show that a recovery from the global

in transportation energy consumption in OECD nations is still

the United States and some of the other OECD countries have instituted

a number of new policy measures to increase the vehicle fuel efficiency

taxation regimes to encourage fuel conservation. However, OECD transportation

consumption is estimated to grow by only 0.3 per cent per year over the entire

projection period and is not expected to return to its 2007 level until after 2020


10th Jun. 2011

2035 (quadrillion Btu) (EIA 2010).


transportation fuels, particularly in the emerging non-OECD

OECD energy use for transportation increased 4.5 per cent

in 2009, non-

cent, in part because

continued to provide

OECD

cent per year on average from 2007 to


OECD economies. Transportation energy use in OECD

cent in 2008, followed by a further decrease

from the global

still relatively

tates and some of the other OECD countries have instituted

fuel efficiency and fuel

, OECD transportation

cent per year over the entire

projection period and is not expected to return to its 2007 level until after 2020 (Table


© SKEMA

Figure 15: World delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector, 2005


Table 3: World energy consumption for transportation by country grouping, 2007



World delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector, 2005

World energy consumption for transportation by country grouping, 2007


10th Jun. 2011

World delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector, 2005-2035

World energy consumption for transportation by country grouping, 2007-2035


© SKEMA

5. Tr ansportation

Energy use in the transportation sector includes the energy consumed in moving

people and goods by road, rail, air, water, and pipeline. Almost 30 per

world’s total delivered energy is used for transportation, most of it in the form of

liquid fuels. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption

to increase from 53 per cent in 2007 to 61 per

Figure 16: Europe transportation energy use, 2007

In the long term, for both non

demand for personal travel is a primary factor underlying projected increases in

energy demand for transportation. For freight transportation, trucking is expected to

lead the growth in demand for transportation fuels. In add

countries increases, the volume of freight transported by air and marine vessels is

expected to increase rapidly.

Transportation infrastructure and driving patterns in

infrastructure, is well establishe

Europe can compete successfully with air travel. High population densities, the

convenience of relatively short travel times offered by high

fuel taxes that encourage consum

succeed in OECD Europe, and it should continue to be a major transportation mode in

the region for the foreseeable future.


ansportation


people and goods by road, rail, air, water, and pipeline. Almost 30 per cent of the


liquid fuels. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption

cent in 2007 to 61 per cent in 2035 (Figure 16).

: Europe transportation energy use, 2007-2035 (quadrillion Btu) (EIA 2010).

In the long term, for both non-OECD and OECD economies, steadily increasing



lead the growth in demand for transportation fuels. In addition, as trade among


expected to increase rapidly.

Transportation infrastructure and driving patterns in OECD Europe, particularly rail

infrastructure, is well established. The existing ten separate high-speed rail systems in


convenience of relatively short travel times offered by high-speed rail, and high motor

fuel taxes that encourage consumers to use public transport have allowed rail to


the region for the foreseeable future. (EIA 2010).


10th Jun. 2011


cent of the


liquid fuels. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption is estimated

.

A 2010).

economies, steadily increasing



ition, as trade among


OECD Europe, particularly rail

speed rail systems in


speed rail, and high motor

ers to use public transport have allowed rail to




5.1. Asian-European Container Transportation

Container trade between Europe and Asia is taken as an example of oil price increase

cost fluctuation. Containerisation is a solution for big mass freight to many directions.

Big volume goods of relatively low prices are carried by sea. Containerized cargo is

usually transported between Asia and Europe by deep-sea vessels, but rail transport

tries to catch its share as well (Figure 17). (Russian Railways 2011).

Co-modality and short sea shipping are used since deep-sea vessels can only visit the

biggest ports. ICT networks can increase efficiency of multimodal transports and

decrease the voyages carried out unloaded. Compared to sea transport, rail transport

can better utilize energy sources other than oil products. However, rail transports

require large network and investments to infrastructure to operate efficiently.

To reduce the impact of increasing oil prices shipping operators try to operate at

economic speed instead of quick lead times. Shortage of containers is an impact of

increased lead times, and it has also slowed down the global recovery from the 2009

depression (Optimar 2010).

Capacity volumes of ships are increasing, while proportional machine power is

decreasing. Shipping companies and operators are implementing means, such as

weather routing, stabilizators, hull cleaning, to reduce fuel consumption.



Figure 17: Container Trade Routes from Asia to Europe by Sea and Rail (Russian Railways

2011).

Overseas producers (mostly in Asia) and land producers (domestic producers and

overland importers) compete in the European trade market. A bunker price increase

raises the cost of transporting which increases the costs of overseas producers. The

market shares shift between overseas and domestic producers. Production of imported

products listed in table 5 would shift partly of totally to European consumers. The

higher cost of supply decreases demanded quantity. Producers try to pass on their

increased costs to customers, but often they their total sell volumes and profit margins

will decrease. (IMO 2010).



Table 4: The EU is a major Market for most of the top ten Container Products on the China-EU

route (IMO 2010).

5.1.1. Asia-Europe rail freights

Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) has capacity to transport 500.000-600.000 containers

with import/export cargo and 250.000-300.000 transit containers. TSR together with

the Baikal-Amur mainline are capable of transporting up to 1.000.000 TEU per year.

TSR through rate is more expensive than deep-sea container freights. However,

according to Oy Kuehne + Nagel Ltd transportation of a 40’ container from Shanghai

to Helsinki by rail on 2004-2007 was freight gap about 500 USD (figure 18).


© SKEMA

Figure 18: Comparison of 40’ container’s freight development by deep

Helsinki/Vainikkala – Shanghai 2004

Low transport capacity and unpredictable delivery times are a bigger obstacle for

success of the rail freights than the total costs of transporting a single container.

According to “Strategy of developing the railways of the Russian Federation up to

2030” the railway is intended to be fundamentally modernized by 2015 and 20550 km

of new lines built by 2030. The shortage of transport capacity will be increased to

meet the growing demand for goods and p

5.1.2. Deep-sea Container freights

Containerized trade has been

Container trade is estimated to account for over 70 per cent of total trade in terms of

value. Containerized goods contain mostly manufactured goods, and on average

transport costs share of the


Comparison of 40’ container’s freight development by deep-sea and TSR.

Shanghai 2004 - 2007 (Nyman 2008).




the railway is intended to be fundamentally modernized by 2015 and 20550 km


meet the growing demand for goods and passenger transportation. (Lukov

ontainer freights

has been a fast-growing market segment of sea trade



the total costs is slight. (UNCTAD 2010).


10th Jun. 2011

sea and TSR.




the railway is intended to be fundamentally modernized by 2015 and 20550 km


assenger transportation. (Lukov 2008).

of sea trade (Figure 19).




© SKEMA

Figure 19: Total world seaborne deep sea trade, index 1985=100, container separated (Optimar

2010)

Trade imbalance between Asia and Northern Europe reached its greatest imbalance in

2010 (Figure 20). A part of containers

shortage of containers exists. The larger the imbalance the greater the empty container

incidence and the more cost from related operational ch

in vessels’ share of the liner shipping fleet operated by the main shipping lines is

estimated to be 40-60 per cent. The operator has to consider cost factor when setting

the freight rate. (UNCTAD 2010).


Total world seaborne deep sea trade, index 1985=100, container separated (Optimar


of containers is shipped empty, and at the same time


incidence and the more cost from related operational challenges are faced. Chartered


60 per cent. The operator has to consider cost factor when setting

the freight rate. (UNCTAD 2010).


10th Jun. 2011

Total world seaborne deep sea trade, index 1985=100, container separated (Optimar


shipped empty, and at the same time


allenges are faced. Chartered-


60 per cent. The operator has to consider cost factor when setting


© SKEMA

Figure 20: Container Freight Rates (Optimar 2010)

Container freight rates (Figure

International and they cover years from 1993 to 2008. Freights are expressed in US

dollars per TEU, and they include currency

BAFs), terminal handling charges

inland haulage where full container load rates have been agreed. Freight rates are

average rates of all commodities carried by major carriers. (UNCTAD 2010).

Price variation of freight rates (FRE) and Brent Oil (BRE) in Asia

are described in Figure 21

to trade imbalances, which seem to be a more significant factor than oil prices.


Container Freight Rates (Optimar 2010)

Figure 21 and Figure 22) are obtained from Containerisation


dollars per TEU, and they include currency- and bunker adjustment factor

BAFs), terminal handling charges - where gate/gate rates have been agreed



variation of freight rates (FRE) and Brent Oil (BRE) in Asia-Europe

21. Differences in freight rates seem to be systemically related



10th Jun. 2011

obtained from Containerisation


and bunker adjustment factors (CAFs and

where gate/gate rates have been agreed - and



Europe-Asia routes

stemically related




Figure 21: Brent Crude Oil Prices and Container Freights Rates on Asia-Europe-Asia container

routes by direction (UNCTAD 2010).

Figure 22 describes Brent crude oil prices and freight prices in Asia-Europe container

routes. Assuming that each liner operates in both directions, viability and profitability

vary considerably. During periods of relatively stable oil prices, average freight rates

have gone down, but in periods of rising oil prices average freight rates have

experienced wide fluctuations.

Figure 22: Brent Crude Oil Prices and Container Freights Rates on Asia-Europe-Asia container

routes (UNCTAD 2010).



6. Al ternative Energy Choices in Sea Transportation

6.1. Sustainable transports

Fuel consumption in sea transportation goes hand-in-hand with environmental

requirements. EU is working on actively to support global agreement on tackling CO2

emissions. According to the EU White Paper the International Maritime Organisation

(IMO) is drafting of mandatory requirements for an Energy Efficiency Design Index

(EEDI) for new vessels and of the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan

(SEEMP) for all ships in operation. (European Commission 2011).

The White Paper also expects that looking forty years ahead, it can be foreseen that

certain radically new technologies and concepts will emerge over the next decades.

Based on a recent assessment carried out for the Commission in waterborne transport

mainly wind-based concepts but also LNG and nuclear energy could have a

significant impact on emissions and appear to be deployable in the medium-term.

Waterborne transport could be powered by biofuels (all vessels), hydrogen (inland

waterways and small boats), LPG and LNG (short sea shipping), LNG and nuclear

(deep sea). Also in waterborne transport use of ICT tools can lead to optimisation of

routes and better fleet and cargo planning (European Commission 2011).

IMO´s MARPOL Annex VI (Regulations for the prevention of air pollution from

ships) includes Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP). SEEMP is an

on-board management tool to include improved voyage planning (Weather routing,

Just-In-Time), speed and power optimization, optimized ship handling (ballast, trim,

use of rudder and autopilot), improved fleet and energy management, and improved

cargo handling. SEEMP utilizes the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI)

as a monitoring tool and a benchmark tool. (IMO 2009).

During 2010, DNV has done a study for the heads of state surrounding the Baltic Sea

to assess how the shipping industry can contribute to improve the environmental

situation in the area. The study summarizes IMOs new emission requirements for

Emission Control Areas (ECA). The study further concludes that LNG offers the best



environmental and economic performance of these alternative measures. One of the

key messages in the report is that there exists almost no infrastructure for distributing

LNG to ships, so Governments in the area are encouraged to support and give

incentives for establishing such infrastructure.

Under the IMO agreement MARPOL Annex VI, Regulations for the Prevention of

Air Pollution from Ships, countries can apply to set up emission control areas through

an application process. The amendment of Annex VI in 2008 broadened the scope of

the controls that countries can apply in ECAs. Under the previous version of Annex

VI, two ECAs were set up: in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. As per the Annex VI,

these were called a Sulphur (or sulphur oxides - SOx) Emission Control Area

(SECA). In a SECA, ships must switch to use fuel with a sulphur level of <1.5% or fit

an exhaust scrubber system that will achieve equivalent reductions. Under Annex VI

(2008), the maximum sulphur level in fuel will be progressively lowered for an ECA

as follows:

• 1.00% m/m on and after 1 July 2010; and

• 0.10% m/m on and after 1 January 2015.

With fossil fuels there are three main options that comply with ECA rules (Emission

Control Area) which are:

• Operating on low sulphur fuels/distillates

• Operating on heavy fuel oil (HFO) with a scrubber installed

• Operating on LNG – ‘LNG fuelled ships reduce the emission of NOx by 85–

90% and SOx by almost 100%’

LNG is an option especially for new-build short-sea vessels and those operating in

trades with more-or-less fixed ports. Operation on LNG opens up different

possibilities. One option is to operate on dual-fuel engines, where the engines can be

switched to LNG fuel when operating in ECAs and then operating on HFO outside

ECAs. This is a very flexible solution enabling vessels to operate globally. The new-


© SKEMA

build price will of course increase but the flexible option may have a positive

influence on the second-hand value. Another option is pure LNG operation with no

heavy fuel back-up. This will mean a simplified engine

compared to the dual-fuel concept, though with less flexibility. The latter has been

introduced for very short trades such as inland water ferries.

In addition to the efforts to reduce the emissions in the waterborne transport, one of

the main drivers for the inno

claims will increase oil prices. To achieve lower sulphur emissions better bunker

quality or additional systems to clean the exhaust gases are needed.

In Figure 23 different bunker prices are compared from 1990 to 2009.

operating in SECAs have to use

from 2010 on, and marine gas oil (MGO)

power energy. Total cost of

where IFO 380 can be used

study the price of the MDO and MGO will increase rapidly

less between 2012 and 2020. (SKEMA 2010).

Figure 23: Historical Price Ratio between



hand value. Another option is pure LNG operation with no

up. This will mean a simplified engine-room and tank layout

fuel concept, though with less flexibility. The latter has been

introduced for very short trades such as inland water ferries.


the main drivers for the innovative concepts is the increasing fuel costs.


quality or additional systems to clean the exhaust gases are needed.

different bunker prices are compared from 1990 to 2009. V

operating in SECAs have to use specially purified IFO 380, marine diesel oil (MDO)

e gas oil (MGO) from 2015 on as their liquefied fuel

. Total cost of MGO in SECA region compared with operating in region

where IFO 380 can be used was almost 100 per cent in 2009. According to SKEMA

study the price of the MDO and MGO will increase rapidly 2010-2012 and somewhat

less between 2012 and 2020. (SKEMA 2010).

atio between Bunker Fuels (SKEMA 2010).


10th Jun. 2011


hand value. Another option is pure LNG operation with no

room and tank layout

fuel concept, though with less flexibility. The latter has been


vative concepts is the increasing fuel costs. Low sulphur


Vessels

e diesel oil (MDO)

liquefied fuel engine

operating in region

According to SKEMA

2012 and somewhat


© SKEMA

Table 5: Predicted prices for marine fuel categories from 2010 to 20

6.2. Innovative solutions

environmental requirements

In the following, some technical innovations

the environmental requirements

implementation phase whereas some are still on the drawing board of the designers.

6.2.1 Use of LNG fuel

The revised MARPOL Convention sets more stringently new limitations for ships’

engine emissions and fuel quality globally. Much

heavy bunker oils will be required. As a solution to the environmental challenge LNG

(Liquefied Natural Gas) is expected to become more cost effective than distillate fuels

for ships, particularly in a high oil price sc

are under construction in Finland, in Australia and in France.

STX Finland Oy and Viking Line ABP have signed an agreement for the construction

of passenger vessel for Viking Line, with delivery early 2013

generation cruise ferry uses LNG as fuel; it has no marine emissions and its aerial

emissions are extremely low. The wave forming and noise generation have been

minimised. The vessel has been specially designed to operate in the delic

shallow waters of the Finnish and Swedish archipelago. The length of the vessel is

about 210 metres and gross tonnage 57000. The max


Predicted prices for marine fuel categories from 2010 to 2020 (SKEMA 2010).

Innovative solutions to reduce fuel costs and to comply with the

environmental requirements

In the following, some technical innovations to reduce fuel cost and to comply with

the environmental requirements are introduced. Some of them are already in the



engine emissions and fuel quality globally. Much cleaner fuels than the conventional



for ships, particularly in a high oil price scenario. At least three LNG fuel

are under construction in Finland, in Australia and in France.


of passenger vessel for Viking Line, with delivery early 2013 (figure 23)



minimised. The vessel has been specially designed to operate in the delic


about 210 metres and gross tonnage 57000. The maximum speed is 23 knots. The


10th Jun. 2011

20 (SKEMA 2010).

to comply with the

to reduce fuel cost and to comply with

hem are already in the



cleaner fuels than the conventional



enario. At least three LNG fuel using ships


(figure 23). The new



minimised. The vessel has been specially designed to operate in the delicate and


speed is 23 knots. The



capacity of the vessel is 2800 passengers, 1300 lane meters for trucks and 500 lane

meters for passenger cars. The agreement includes an option for a sister ship. The

cruise ferry will operate on a route between Turku and Stockholm.

Figure 24: Viking Line’s new-build LNG passenger ferry (Good News from Finland 2011).

Australian shipbuilder Incat Tasmania Pty Ltd is building the world first high speed

passenger Ro-Ro ship powered by LNG. The 99 metre LNG ship was contracted by

South American company Buquebus in November 2010. They have now announced

that they will operate the vessel on their River Plate service between Buenos Aires,

Argentina and Montevideo in Uruguay. The vessel is under construction at the Incat

shipyard at Prince of Wales Bay at Hobart in Tasmania, Australia. Delivery is

anticipated to be in the Southern hemisphere spring of 2012. The capacity is over

1000 passengers and 153 cars and an operating speed of 50 knots. The vessel will be

the first installation of LNG powered dual fuel engines in an Incat high speed ferry,

and the first high speed craft built under the HSC code to be powered by Gas Turbines

using LNG as the primary fuel and marine distillate for standby and ancillary use.

Leading French ferry operator, Brittany Ferries, and shipbuilder, STX France, are

embarking on a joint project to develop a new generation of environmentally-friendly

passenger ferries. Powered by dual fuel engines, which will burn LNG combined with

a high efficiency electric propulsion system, the new vessel will reduce energy

consumption and CO2 emissions by 15 – 20% compared to current ferries.

Furthermore, pollution by nitrous and sulphurous oxides will be almost eliminated.

But the quest for innovation does not end simply with the use of LNG, as the structure

will make use of lighter compound materials and high strength glues, together with



advanced hull design. The new ship will not only be clean but large and fast, being

able to accommodate 2,400 passengers, 650 cars and 40 lorries and have a maximum

speed of 25 knots.

6.2.2. Scrubber technology

As an alternative to using low-sulphur fuels, an exhaust gas-scrubbing system can be

employed to reduce the level of sulphur dioxide (SO2). Two main principles exist:

open-loop seawater scrubbers and closed-loop scrubbers. Both systems rely on

contacting the exhaust with water Open-loop scrubbers use seawater directly, while

closed-loop scrubbers use water with chemicals added to provide ability to remove

SO2. Both scrubber concepts may also remove PM and limited amounts of NOx.

Scrubber technologies require energy, which is estimated to be in the range of 1% to

2% of the MCR. Scrubbing to remove SOx reduces the temperature of the exhaust

gas. On the other hand, SCR technology requires high temperatures of the exhaust gas

and at the same time low sulphur and PM content in that gas. Several diesel engine

manufacturers have launched their own scrubber concepts. (IMO 2009).

6.2.3. Use of wind power

Wind power can be utilized in various ways on ships. These include traditional sails,

solid-wing sails, kites and Flettner-type rotors. When using traditional sails, stability

and strength problems exits, and besides cargo handling is difficult. With solid-wing

sails more thrust is achieved with less drag than conventional sails. Kites are

relatively economic and environmental to install, and quite feasible to retrofit.

However, they are complex to launch additional recovery and control systems that are

needed. The best ship with the best sail type, with optimal weather routeing, operating

in the most favourable five-year average weather (North Atlantic), was shown to save

15% at 15 knots and 44% at 10 knots.

Several companies have designed their own innovations to utilise the kite technology

to reduce the fuel costs. One of the realised plans is the kite system installed on the

dry cargo multipurpose container vessel MS Beluga SkySails. The 132 metre and

9.775 tdw vessel is equipped with a 160 m2 kite (Figure 25). The vessel made her


© SKEMA

maiden voyage to Venezuela from Bremen in 2008. The kite can be used in winds of

12-74km/h (7-40 knots) and not just when the wind is blowing directly from behind

the ship. With the kite about 10

The kite is controlled by a computer which takes into account different wind speeds

and directions. (SkySails & DSM 2011).

Figure 25: MS Beluga SkySails and the kite

6.2.4. Other innovative power sources

In the E/S Orcelle car carrier concept of the Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics,

combines the ideas of fuel cells, wind, solar and wave power to propel the vessel

(Figure 26) (Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics 2011).

carrier like this will never be built in its entirety but some of the elements can be seen

in future generation of vesse

football pitches. Wave energy is to be harnessed by 12 dolphin

hull. While, sun and wind energy is collected by three giant rigid wingsails, which are

covered with solar panels. Similar ideas are presented also in M/V Solar Navigator

Swath–concept, AquaSailor



40 knots) and not just when the wind is blowing directly from behind

the ship. With the kite about 10 – 35% reduction in fuel consumption can be achieved


SkySails & DSM 2011).

MS Beluga SkySails and the kite (SkySails & DSM 2011).

ve power sources



(Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics 2011). According to the company a car


in future generation of vessels. The vessel will include a cargo deck the size of 14

football pitches. Wave energy is to be harnessed by 12 dolphin-like fins in the ship’s


. Similar ideas are presented also in M/V Solar Navigator

concept, AquaSailor-concept (Solar Navigator 2011: Solar Sailor 2011)


10th Jun. 2011


40 knots) and not just when the wind is blowing directly from behind

consumption can be achieved.




According to the company a car-


ls. The vessel will include a cargo deck the size of 14

like fins in the ship’s


. Similar ideas are presented also in M/V Solar Navigator

Solar Sailor 2011).


© SKEMA

Figure 26: A car carrier concept which utilises solar, wind and wave energy

Wilhelmsen Logistics 2011).

6.3.5. Environmentally friendly hull coating

During operation of the ship, surface roughness can increase due to cracking and

damage to the coating as well as to attacks of rust. Additionally, the growth of organic

species (including various types of

and gooseneck barnacles) can be very detrimental.

hull surface tends to increase the boundary layer,

(frictional) resistance.

Frictional resistance can be reduced by modifying the wetted surface of the hull, such

as by introducing riblets that mimic shark scales or by applying an artificial

enhancement (such as the use of air bubbles and/or air cavities and polymers).

2011).


A car carrier concept which utilises solar, wind and wave energy (Wallenius

Environmentally friendly hull coating


coating as well as to attacks of rust. Additionally, the growth of organic

g various types of slime and weed fouling as well as acorn barnacles

and gooseneck barnacles) can be very detrimental. Increasing the roughness of the

hull surface tends to increase the boundary layer, consequently increasing the viscous



enhancement (such as the use of air bubbles and/or air cavities and polymers).


10th Jun. 2011

(Wallenius


coating as well as to attacks of rust. Additionally, the growth of organic

slime and weed fouling as well as acorn barnacles

Increasing the roughness of the

consequently increasing the viscous



enhancement (such as the use of air bubbles and/or air cavities and polymers). (Wired



However, it should be noted that any improvements to the wetted surfaces of the hull

that are achieved by these means may also inhibit organic growth. None of the

mentioned technologies are proven in service. Additionally, an air-bubble system

would require energy to produce the bubbles. Hull coatings based on nanotechnology

have been advertised by different companies for some time now. It is claimed that

these coatings have the potential of reducing the basic viscous frictional resistance of

the underwater hull to a considerable extent and to delay the onset of marine growth

for an extended period. If the claims can be even partly realized in the future, power

reductions of perhaps 15% may be expected. Thus, this type of coating of the

underwater hull will be one of the most important contributions toward reducing fuel

consumption and CO2 emissions for well-designed conventional ships. It will be

particularly favourable that such coatings probably can be applied both to new ships

and to existing ships. (IMO 2009).



7. Conclusions of the Trends

Energy consumption increases mostly in the growing markets - especially in Asia -

but slowly growing demand in Europe is also foreseen. At the moment some of the

OECD countries are highly dependent of imports, as they have become post-industrial

societies. The difference between estimations of energy use and production volumes

raises a question: is Europe slowly sliding to a regressive economy, as many of the

companies have moved away and compensative service-oriented jobs are scarce?

Locations of global companies will be better considered against logistical costs, where

unbalance of transport volumes in import - export transports, will be an important

issue.

Continuous dramatic oil price increase is not foreseen, even though occasional short-

time fluctuation is expected. Oil price continues to increase steadily following its

long-time trend. Dependency on oil products is decreasing as natural gas, renewable

energy sources and developing technological innovations can be utilized and

implemented. Our conclusion is that a progressive change allows the maritime

transport and logistics market to react to the change in a successively controlled way.

Oil remains the most significant energy resource in transportation. When examining

container freights, it was noticed that oil price is not necessarily reason for high

freight rates but the costs rise as a consequence of unbalance in exports and imports.

Rail transport becomes more efficient when considering transport times and total

costs. Maritime transport remains attractive because of its capability to transport large

volumes of goods.

Sulphur and carbon dioxide emission limits have a great impact in profitability of

maritime transportation. Overall, impact of political aspects is increasing in

transportation costs. Countries not being oil producers try to substitute oil with other

energy sources. Their motives seem to be political and environmental instead of price.

Strict sulphur emissions policy has a significant effect on the contracting parties.

Meanwhile, emission policy accelerates negligent economies.



Further studies are recommended to model the dependency of emissions and transport

costs of typical vessels and cargo lots. Besides, European natural gas technologies and

networks might need urgent R&D investments.



References

European Commission (2011). White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport

Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system. COM(2011)

144 final. Brussels, 28.3.2011.

Good News from Finland (2011). Wärtsilä to deliver gas engines for Viking Line’s

new passenger ferry. [online sited 8.6.2011] Available at World Wide Web:

<URL:http://www.goodnewsfinland.com/archive/news/wartsila-to-deliver-gas-

engines-for-viking-lines-new-passenger-ferry/ >

EIA (Energy Information Administration) (2010). International Energy Outlook 2010.

Available at World Wide Web: <URL:http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html>

IEA (International Energy Agency) (2010). Key World Energy Statistics 2010.

Available at World Wide Web:

<URL:http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2010/key_stats_2010.pdf>

IEA (International Energy Agency) (2011a). Are we entering a Golden Age of Gas?

Special Report. World Energy Outlook 2011. Available at World Wide Web:

<URL:http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pd

f>

IEA (International Energy Agency) (2011b). Clear Energy. Progress Report.


<URL:http://www.iea.org/papers/2011/CEM_Progress_Report.pdf>

IMO (International Maritime Organization) (2009). Second IMO GHG Study 2009.


<URL:http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/

Documents/GHGStudyFINAL.pdf>



IMO (2010) Assessment of the Economic Impact of the Market-based Measures.


<URL:http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/

Documents/VividEconomicsIMOFinalReport.pdf>

Lukov, Boris E. (2008). The Transsiberian Rail Corridor: Present Situation and Future

Prospects. PROMIT seminar. Available at World Wide Web:

<URL:http://www.promit-

project.net/UploadedFiles/Events/Pres_Seminar_7thWorkshop/Lukov_CCTT_TSR.p

df>

Nyman, Markus (2008). Promit Seminar 14th Feb 2008. Kuehne + Nagel. Available at

World Wide Web: <URLhttp://www.promit-

project.net/UploadedFiles/Events/Pres_Seminar_7thWorkshop/Nyman_Kuehne+Nag

el_TSR.pdf>

Optimar (2010). Benchmarking Strategic Options for EuropeanShipping and for the

European Maritime Transport System in the Horizon 2008-2018. Fairplay. 138 p.

Russian Railways (2011). Trans-Siberian Railway. [online sited 9.6.2011] Available

at World Wide Web:

<URL:http://eng.rzd.ru/isvp/public/rzdeng?STRUCTURE_ID=87>

SKEMA (2010). Assessment of the Impact of the Application of new Sulphur Limits

to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic European Seas.

Solar Navigator (2011). [online sited 8.6.2011] Available at World Wide Web:

<URL:http://www.solarnavigator.net/swath_model_electrics.htm>

Solar Sailor (2011). [online sited 8.6.2011] Available at World Wide Web:

<URL: http://www.solarsailor.com/solutions_gov.htm#aquatankers>



SkySails & DSM (2011). Skysails – New Energy for Shipping. [online sited 8.6.2011]


<URL:http://www.dsm.com/en_US/cworld/public/media/downloads/publications/bac

kgrounder_skysails_new_energy_for_shipping_with_relevant_sources.pdf>

TEMS (Transportation Economics & Management Systems, INC.) (2008). Impact of

High Oil Prices on Freight Transportation: Modal Shift Potential in Five Corridors.

Technical Report. Prepared for Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of

Transportation. Available at World Wide Web: <URL:

http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/Modal_Shift_Study_-_Technical_Report.pdf>

UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) (2010). Oil Prices

and Maritime Freight Rates: An Empirical Investigation. Technical Report by the

UNCTAD Secretariat. Available at World Wide Web:

<URL: http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/dtltlb20092_en.pdf>

Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (2011). E/S Orcelle – the green flagship. [online

sited 9.6.2011] Available at World Wide Web:

<URL:http://www.2wglobal.com/www/environment/orcelleGreenFlagship/index.jsp>

Wired (2011). Shark Skin Inspires Ship Coating. [online sited 9.6.2011] Available at

World Wide Web:

<URL:http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2005/03/66833>