skandinaviska enskilda banken ab (publ) · 1856. chart 2 table 2 skandinaviska enskilda banken ab...

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB(publ)

Primary Credit Analyst:

Olivia Fleischmann, Stockholm (46) 8-440-5904; [email protected]

Secondary Contact:

Sean Cotten, Stockholm (46) 8-440-5928; [email protected]

Table Of Contents

Major Rating Factors

Outlook

Rationale

Related Criteria

Related Research

WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT AUGUST 31, 2017 1

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)

SACP a

Anchor a-

Business

PositionAdequate 0

Capital and

EarningsStrong +1

Risk Position Adequate 0

Funding Average

0

Liquidity Adequate

+ Support +1

ALACSupport 0

GRE Support 0

GroupSupport 0

SovereignSupport +1

+AdditionalFactors 0

Issuer Credit Rating

A+/Stable/A-1

Major Rating Factors

Strengths: Weaknesses:

• Well-diversified revenue base by geography and

business areas, supporting capital generation.

• Large Nordic corporate and institutions business

support several business areas.

• Stable earnings from Swedish retail and large

corporate banking business.

• Concentration of comparably large single-name

exposures.

• Cost efficiency is less than domestic peers, but is

improving.


Outlook : Stable

Our stable outlook on Sweden-based Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) balances increasing economic risks

in SEB's core market with our view that the Swedish government will continue to support its domestic systemically

important banks.

The outlook also reflects our view that the bank will have a risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio sustainably above 10%

over the next 18-24 months, consistent with our revised strong assessment of the bank's capital and earnings.

Moreover, this incorporates our view that SEB's asset quality and loss experience will continue to be in line with

that of its core Nordic peers. Our view is also underpinned by SEB's established franchise value that enables the

bank to deliver consistently solid profitability metrics from its various business lines.

If the negative trends we see for Swedish economic risk caused us to revise down the bank's anchor to 'bbb+' from

'a-', we could lower our assessment of SEB's stand-alone credit profile (SACP). If we were to lower SEB's SACP, we

would also lower the ratings on both SEB's subordinated and junior subordinated instruments, as we use the SACP

as the starting point for additional notching when rating such instruments.

However, given our view that SEB would receive extraordinary government support, a reduction in the SACP

would most likely lead us to apply a two-notch uplift for government support to the long-term rating on the bank,

which would remain unchanged at 'A+'. This means we currently regard the possibility of a negative rating action

on the long-term rating on the bank as remote. A negative action could arise, however, if we see a lower likelihood

of extraordinary government support in Sweden over the next two years.

As a result, we believe that a positive rating action is unlikely over the next 18-24 months.

Rationale

Our ratings on SEB reflect its 'a-' anchor and our assessment of its adequate business position, its strong capital and

earnings, adequate risk position, average funding, and adequate liquidity. We assess the bank's SACP at 'a'. The ratings

also factor in the bank's high systemic importance in the Kingdom of Sweden (unsolicited; AAA/Stable/A-1+).

Anchor: 'a-', reflecting Swedish headquarters and geographic lending portfolio

Our bank criteria use our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) economic risk and industry risk scores

to determine a bank's anchor, the starting point in assigning an issuer credit rating. Our anchor for SEB is 'a-', reflecting

the bank's regulatory base in Sweden and the blended economic risk of the countries in which the bank operates (see

chart 1).



Chart 1

We view the Swedish economy as highly diverse and competitive, with considerable and demonstrated monetary and

fiscal flexibility given a historical focus on prudent management of public finances. We believe that the developments

in commercial and retail property valuations since 2014 are not fully explained by fundamental factors and, in

connection with Sweden's high and increasing household and private-sector debt, are exacerbating existing

imbalances. Sweden has now mandated amortization on new residential mortgages; however, low interest rates, tax

incentives for debt, and a structural shortage of housing continue to support our view that the existing imbalances in

Sweden could harm the Swedish economy, if not contained. Household incomes are high and households' net financial

assets and high savings remain supporting factors for our assessment of economic risks. In addition, we expect credit

losses and nonperforming loans will remain low in a low interest rate environment.

In our view, the high share of net external debt is a key risk factor for the banking sector. Core customer deposits saw

a slight increase in 2016 as both corporate and retail depositors continue to build cash buffers, where for households

this is evidenced by maintaining a high savings rate. The banks fill the resulting funding gap with largely domestic

covered bonds and international senior debt. We view the regulatory environment in Sweden as in line with that of

other EU countries, despite comparatively high capital buffers and a history of capital and liquidity support to the

sector. We also view the stability of the banking sector and absence of significant complexity as sector strengths.



Table 1

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) Key Figures

--Year-ended Dec. 31--

(Mil. SEK) 2017* 2016 2015 2014 2013

Adjusted assets 2,338,966.0 2,199,086.0 2,107,407.0 2,259,152.0 2,152,144.0

Customer loans (gross) 1,414,416.0 1,367,806.0 1,288,759.0 1,277,428.0 1,212,658.0

Adjusted common equity 118,669.1 113,541.0 109,986.0 101,495.0 94,114.0

Operating revenues 22,609.0 43,251.0 45,050.0 43,954.0 41,569.0

Noninterest expenses 10,981.0 21,812.0 22,187.0 22,143.0 22,287.0

Core earnings 8,818.0 14,645.4 17,510.8 16,885.4 14,787.0

*Data as of June 30. SEK--Swedish krona.

Business position: Universal bank with leading Nordic commercial banking franchise

Our assessment of SEB's business position is based on the bank's Nordic franchise and stable revenues across a broad

range of business lines and geographies (see chart 2). This is exemplified by the bank's focus on large corporates and

financial institutions in the Nordics and in Germany, and which underscores the diversity of the SEB's revenue sources.

SEB upholds a leading position among large Nordic corporates, which generally enables steady profits from a variety

of services. The bank also remains focused on a broad retail strategy. As a result, SEB's net-interest income as a share

of revenues is somewhat lower than Swedish peers'. Increased scale and improvements in efficiency via cost controls

have led to cost-to-income ratios closer to those of more efficient Nordic peers and ahead of most European banks.

The bank plans to maintain a nominal cost cap to prioritize efficiency gains, which we believe will continue to support

its strengthened earnings profile.

Given SEB's commercial banking traditions, the bank's main focus has been on a steady stream of fee-based revenues

and as a result the bank earns about 45% of its preprovision profits from its large corporate and financial insititutions

segment. Retail banking covering various corporate and private customers accounts for 35% of profits, and the

remaining 20% is spread across wealth management, life insurance, and the Baltics division. Much of the noninterest

income is generated via recurring business lines such as custody, mutual funds, payments, and lending-related activies.

Furthermore, given SEB's emphasis on relationship banking services, its market-making activity is focused on

providing clients with liquidity and, as such, trading income is customer-flow-related as opposed to proprietary trading.

As a result of SEB's long-standing large corporate relationships, the bank dominates the corporate deposit market with

a 24% market share, whereas it trails its primary peers somewhat within household deposits. Within the Swedish

domestic lending market, SEB has approximately 15% of the household mortgage market, and as such shares the third

place position with Nordea Bank AB.

Earlier this year, SEB appointed a new CEO, Johan Torgeby, after the previous CEO had served 11 years. We expect

no material changes to SEB's business model and strategy with the changes in leadership, meaning the bank will

continue to focus on its core operations. This strategy has served the bank well over the past several years by

improving revenue stability and the quality of the balance sheet, and has also led to better cost efficiency.

Furthermore, we note Investor AB, which currently holds a 20% stake in the bank, provides ongoing stability from

SEB's largest shareholder, which alongside its founding family, the Wallenbergs, have been major shareholders since



1856.

Chart 2

Table 2

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) Business Position


(%) 2017* 2016 2015 2014 2013

Loan market share in country of domicile N/A 14.4 14.3 14.6 14.9

Deposit market share in country of domicile N/A 15.7 15.6 15.3 15.4

Total revenues from business line (mil. SEK) 22,609.0 43,771.0 45,050.0 46,936.0 41,569.0

Commercial banking/total revenues from business line 41.3 43.4 40.8 38.6 40.2

Retail banking/total revenues from business line 42.9 41.9 35.4 34.8 37.7

Commercial & retail banking/total revenues from business line 84.2 85.3 76.2 73.4 77.9

Insurance activities/total revenues from business line N/A 13.1 11.0 10.2 11.0

Asset management/total revenues from business line 12.9 N/A 11.2 10.5 10.2

Other revenues/total revenues from business line 2.9 1.6 1.7 5.9 0.9

Return on equity 12.6 7.5 12.0 14.9 12.7

*Data as of June 30. N/A--Not applicable.



Capital and earnings: Stable earnings generation supportive of strong capital levels

As of Dec. 31, 2016, SEB's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio stood at 10.0%. While the bank experienced somewhat

softer earnings growth in 2016, SEB's stable earnings profile supports our view of the bank's capital and earnings

position.

Over the past few years, SEB's capital has developed positively as a result of operating efficiency improvements and

low credit losses. Alongside the bank's additional tier 1 capital instrument issuance, the capital base has strengthened

considerably. We forecast SEB's RAC ratio will be about 10.0%-10.5% over the next 18-24 months, which is supported

by expected earnings of about Swedish krona (SEK) 17 billion (€1.8 billion) per year. Underpinning this forecast is

lending growth of about 4%-5%, which is driven by growth in both the corporate and retail loan books and which is

broadly in line with the market. We expect that the RAC ratio will be further supported by SEB's commitment to

maintaining a management buffer of 150 basis points (bps) of common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital above the Swedish

regulatory requirements (the excess in CET1 capital was circa 180 bps over the requirement of 17.1% at the end of the

second quarter of 2017).

In March, SEB issued a $600 million additional tier 1 capital, which we understand is intended to replace a

grandfathered regulatory capital instrument that is likely to be called in December 2017. The bank's new instrument is

included in our assessment of their capital base. We do not include any additional hybrid capital issuance in our capital

projections for SEB. However, the ratios could be further supported by additional issuance over the next two years.

This would most likely be driven by potential increases in regulatory requirements, the magnitude of which remains

unclear at this stage.

We expect SEB will maintain the improving trend of its cost-to-income ratio, which has been on average near 50% for

the past few years (chart 3). Coupled with its focus on steady profit growth across its diversified product offerings, SEB

has seen solid returns, and we expect our three-year average earnings buffer, which measures the capacity of a bank's

earnings to cover normalized losses, to be near 1.15%-1.20%. The bank also has a long-term return-on-equity target of

about 15%, which is in line with Nordic peers. Our RAC forecast incorporates the view that the bank will continue to

pay out approximately 70% of profits, which provides additional equity capital flexibility in the event of a downturn.



Chart 3

Table 3

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) Capital And Earnings


(%) 2017* 2016 2015 2014 2013

Tier 1 capital ratio 22.1 21.2 21.3 19.5 17.1

S&P RAC ratio before diversification N.M. 10.0 10.2 9.1 8.3

S&P RAC ratio after diversification N.M. 10.5 10.8 9.8 8.9

Adjusted common equity/total adjusted capital 86.1 88.5 88.8 88.4 95.5

Double leverage 51.1 49.9 53.6 59.4 62.7

Net interest income/operating revenues 42.6 43.3 42.2 45.4 45.3

Fee income/operating revenues 39.6 38.4 37.5 37.1 35.3

Market-sensitive income/operating revenues 12.0 11.9 11.0 6.6 10.8

Noninterest expenses/operating revenues 48.6 50.4 49.2 50.4 53.6

Preprovision operating income/average assets 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8

Core earnings/average managed assets 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6

*Data as of June 30. RAC--Risk-adjusted capital. N.M.--Not meaningful.



Table 4

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Data

(SEK 000s) Exposure* Basel II RWA

Average Basel

II RW (%)

S&P Global

Ratings RWA

Average S&P

Global Ratings

RW (%)

Credit risk

Government and central banks 387,323,035 10,045,349 3 14,476,099 4

Institutions 121,291,189 27,796,281 23 28,562,517 24

Corporate 1,007,832,194 340,557,846 34 707,494,377 70

Retail 651,059,631 78,901,748 12 216,338,959 33

Of which mortgage 552,654,370 39,787,933 7 145,152,346 26

Securitization§ 7,075,636 3,282,348 46 5,502,719 78

Other assets 9,428,800 10,180,564 108 10,913,386 116

Total credit risk 2,184,010,486 470,764,136 22 983,288,056 45

Market risk

Equity in the banking book† 4,515,708 4,286,708 100 34,331,431 760

Trading book market risk -- 43,213,341 -- 64,901,632 --

Total market risk -- 47,500,049 -- 99,233,063 --

Insurance risk

Total insurance risk -- -- -- 85,937,500 --

Operational risk

Total operational risk -- 47,900,934 -- 120,173,052 --

Basel II RWA

S&P Global

Ratings RWA

% of S&P Global

Ratings RWA

Diversification adjustments

RWA before diversification 566,165,119 1,288,631,670 100

Total Diversification/Concentration

Adjustments

-- (69,064,055) (5)

RWA after diversification 566,165,119 1,219,567,615 95

Tier 1 capital

Tier 1 ratio

(%)

Total adjusted

capital

S&P Global

Ratings RAC

ratio (%)

Capital ratio

Capital ratio before adjustments 129,157,000 22.8 128,279,000 10.0

Capital ratio after adjustments‡ 129,157,000 21.2 128,279,000 10.5

*Exposure at default. §Securitization exposure includes the securitization tranches deducted from capital in the regulatory framework. †Exposure

and S&P Global Ratings' risk-weighted assets for equity in the banking book include minority equity holdings in financial institutions.

‡Adjustments to Tier 1 ratio are additional regulatory requirements (e.g. transitional floor or Pillar 2 add-ons). RWA--Risk-weighted assets.

RW--Risk weight. RAC--Risk-adjusted capital. SEK--Sweden krona. Sources: Company data as of Dec. 31, 2016, Standard & Poor's.

Risk position: Continued focus on core markets in the Nordic countries and Germany

Generally, we consider the SEB's overall asset quality and loss experience to be in line with its Nordic peers. While

rising economic imbalances represent an area of concern for Sweden, we believe this is adequately captured in the

bank's anchor.



SEB's credit risk profile is representative of its core markets in the Nordic countries, which includes both the household

and residential real estate sectors, and in Germany where the focus is now solely on corporates. The underlying risks

for SEB's corporate and retail exposures reflect the characteristics of the bank's primary markets, and we anticipate

credit losses to remain stable at fairly low levels. For 2016-2017, we project loan-loss provisions will represent about

10 bps of lending, a level consistent with SEB's performance over the past several years (see chart 4). This is further

underpinned by the supportive monetary policy being pursued by the Swedish central bank. We continue to believe

that future credit losses will be more balanced between Nordic and non-Nordic exposures, as SEB's asset quality

continues to improve in the Baltic countries and Germany. We believe the bank has an adequate level of provisions for

its outstanding exposures.

Chart 4

SEB has made progress in its strategy to concentrate on core businesses, which highlights that the bank preserves a

sound risk appetite. The focus on core businesses and relationships has also lowered SEB's earnings volatility. We

furthermore note that many of the bank's longstanding relationships are with large Nordic corporates, and while this

leads to some single name concentration, the larger size of the corporates is supportive of SEB's credit profile. As

shown in the above graph, SEB's actual losses have been below our normalized credit loss level, which is a calculation

of long-term average annualized credit-related losses over the credit cycle.



Table 5

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) Risk Position


(%) 2017* 2016 2015 2014 2013

Growth in customer loans 6.8 6.1 0.9 5.3 4.9

Total diversification adjustment / S&P RWA before diversification N.M. (5.4) (6.0) (7.6) (7.1)

Total managed assets/adjusted common equity (x) 23.4 23.1 22.7 26.0 26.4

New loan loss provisions/average customer loans 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Net charge-offs/average customer loans 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3

Gross nonperforming assets/customer loans + other real estate owned 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8

Loan loss reserves/gross nonperforming assets 60.6 62.7 60.8 58.1 69.1

*Data as of June 30. RWA--Risk-weighted assets. N.M.--Not meaningful.

Funding and liquidity: Less wholesale funding and more corporate deposits than peers

We consider SEB's funding and liquidity to be broadly in line with peers, given there is strong structural support for the

high share of wholesale funding in the Swedish banking system. The bank has also worked to extend the duration of its

stable funding sources, which supports SEB's liquidity management.

SEB has improved its funding mismatches over the past several years, having made a concerted effort to lengthen their

maturity profile. As a result, the bank's stable funding ratio is now much more balanced; as of year-end 2016 the ratio

stood at 102.7% (see chart 4). We expect that the bank will strive to maintain a balanced funding ratio. SEB aims to

comply with regulatory requirements that are expected to be effective as of 2021, in line with Nordic peers. We view

funding as neutral to our rating on SEB.

SEB's liquidity reserve, which was valued at SEK352 billion (about €36.7 billion) as of year-end 2016, is invested in

primarily high quality liquid assets, including Nordic and German government, state-guaranteed, supranational and

covered bonds, to ensure a low risk profile for the portfolio. As such, they contributed to SEB's one-year liquidity ratio,

which compares broad liquid assets with short-term wholesale funding, to be 1.3x as of year-end 2016. This is a

noticeable improvement from the past (see chart 5), and as we anticipate SEB will maintain coverage above 1x, which

is supported by regulatory requirements, we currently assess liquidity as a neutral rating factor.



Chart 5

Table 6

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) Funding And Liquidity


(%) 2017* 2016 2015 2014 2013

Core deposits/funding base 52.2 52.5 51.5 50.5 44.7

Customer loans (net)/customer deposits 139.2 143.1 148.1 138.5 147.0

Long term funding ratio 77.7 81.5 78.6 75.9 67.8

Stable funding ratio 99.7 102.7 94.8 95.7 90.2

Short-term wholesale funding/funding base 24.0 20.0 23.2 25.8 34.1

Broad liquid assets/short-term wholesale funding (x) 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9

Net broad liquid assets/short-term customer deposits 10.7 11.7 3.3 0.8 (6.4)

Short-term wholesale funding/total wholesale funding 49.1 41.4 47.1 51.4 61.5

Narrow liquid assets/3-month wholesale funding (x) 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3

*Data as of June 30.

External support: One notch of government support

We currently include one notch of support above SEB's 'a' SACP for possible extraordinary government support. This

is because we continue to consider the government in Sweden supportive toward the domestic banking sector



following our review in December 2015 (see "Various Rating Actions Taken On Swedish Banks On Continued

Government Support And Heightened Economic Risks", published Dec. 2, 2015, on RatingsDirect), despite the

introduction of bail-in powers through the implementation of the EU directive on Banking Recovery and Resolution as

of Feb. 1, 2016.

Nevertheless, if we saw government support as unlikely, instruments that provide additional loss-absorbing capacity

(ALAC) could be considered as a form of support. Aside from our view that Sweden now has an effective resolution

regime, we also note that a minimum eligible liabilities (MREL) requirement is being introduced and will be formalized

over 2017-2019. As of year-end 2016, we estimate MREL eligible instruments that would qualify for our ALAC

measure would represent about 1.00% of our risk-weighted assets. Preliminary indications estimate that SEB will face a

SEK90 billion (about €9.5 billion) MREL requirement. While we currently do not anticipate that SEB will exceed our

5% threshold for ALAC uplift by 2019, we do however expect that the bank will aim to issue further MREL over

2019-2020, once the structure of senior resolution notes is finalized in Sweden, in order to meet the necessary

guidelines.

Additional rating factors: None

No additional factors affect this rating.

Related Criteria

• General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Rating Methodology And Assumptions: Additional Loss-Absorbing

Capacity, April 27, 2015

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Hybrid Capital And Nondeferrable Subordinated Debt Methodology

And Assumptions, Jan. 29, 2015

• General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And

Assumptions, July 17, 2013

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Revised Market Risk Charges For Banks In Our Risk-Adjusted Capital

Framework, June 22, 2012

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions,

Nov. 9, 2011

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010

• General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009

• Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Commercial Paper I: Banks, March 23, 2004

Related Research

• Nordic Banks Continue To Outperform European Peers On Capital Thanks To Steady Retained Earnings And

Hybrid Issuance, July 12, 2017

• Nordic Banking Regulation Compared, July 10, 2017

• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Sweden, March 29, 2017



• Various Rating Actions Taken On Swedish Banks On Continued Government Support And Heightened Economic

Risks, Dec. 2, 2015

Anchor Matrix

Industry

Risk

Economic Risk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1 a a a- bbb+ bbb+ bbb - - - -

2 a a- a- bbb+ bbb bbb bbb- - - -

3 a- a- bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb- bbb- bb+ - -

4 bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb -

5 bbb+ bbb bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+

6 bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb bb- b+

7 - bbb- bbb- bb+ bb+ bb bb bb- b+ b+

8 - - bb+ bb bb bb bb- bb- b+ b

9 - - - bb bb- bb- b+ b+ b+ b

10 - - - - b+ b+ b+ b b b-

Ratings Detail (As Of August 31, 2017)


Counterparty Credit Rating A+/Stable/A-1

Commercial Paper

Foreign Currency A-1

Junior Subordinated BBB-

Senior Unsecured A+

Short-Term Debt A-1

Subordinated BBB+

Counterparty Credit Ratings History

02-Dec-2015 Foreign Currency A+/Stable/A-1

20-Nov-2012 A+/Negative/A-1

01-Dec-2011 A+/Stable/A-1

02-Dec-2015 Local Currency A+/Stable/A-1

20-Nov-2012 A+/Negative/A-1

01-Dec-2011 A+/Stable/A-1

Sovereign Rating

Sweden (Kingdom of) AAA/Stable/A-1+

*Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings. S&P Global Ratings’ credit ratings on the global scale are comparable

across countries. S&P Global Ratings’ credit ratings on a national scale are relative to obligors or obligations within that specific country. Issue and

debt ratings could include debt guaranteed by another entity, and rated debt that an entity guarantees.

Additional Contact:

Financial Institutions Ratings Europe; [email protected]




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