size of industry
DESCRIPTION
Size of Industry. Size of Industry. Size of Industry. Size of Industry. Size of Industry. Size of Industry. Cow numbers increased but are trending down again Calf crop grew after May 2003 but is adjusting downward Beef production has decreased from 2004/2005 levels. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Size of IndustrySize of Industry
Beef Cows: January 1, 1961-2008 ???
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
Bee
f C
ow
s (M
illio
n H
ead
)
Source: Statistics Canada; AAF estimate for 2008 ; AAFRD estimate for 2006
January 1, 2008 = 4.8 million Beef Cows
Alberta
Canada
Size of IndustrySize of Industry
Beef Cows: January 1, 1961-2008 ???
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Bee
f C
ow
s (M
illio
n H
ead
)
Source: USDA; Statistics Canada; AAF estimate for 2008
January 1, 2008 = 32.7 million Beef Cows
United States
Size of IndustrySize of Industry
Cattle and Calf Slaughter (thousands)
0 500000
1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 5000000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Alberta
Canada
Size of IndustrySize of Industry
Beef Production (thousand tonnes)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Alberta
Canada
Size of IndustrySize of Industry
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Jan-01
Jun-01
Nov-01
Apr-02
Sep-02
Feb-03
Jul-03
Dec-03
May-04
Oct-04
Mar-05
Aug-05
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Wee
kly
Cap
acit
y (n
o.
of
hea
d)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
% o
f P
lan
t C
apac
ity
Federally Inspected Plant Capacity (including weekend kill)
Ratio of Plant Utilization (Actual Slaughter / Plant Capacity)
+24,000 head added capacity at Cargill, Tyson's, XL-Foods, Rancher's Beef and others
Implementation of Rule 1 for Live Cattle trade to the
U.S.
Normal plant efficiency is around
83-84%
Rule 2 for OTM trade
Size of IndustrySize of Industry
Cow numbers increased but are trending down again
Calf crop grew after May 2003 but is adjusting downward
Beef production has decreased from 2004/2005 levels
Beef and Cattle ExportsBeef and Cattle Exports
Canadian Feeder Cattle Exports
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
35,000
6-Ja
n-0
8
20-J
an-0
8
3-F
eb-0
8
17-F
eb-0
8
2-M
ar-0
8
16-M
ar-0
8
30-M
ar-0
8
13-A
pr-
08
27-A
pr-
08
11-M
ay-0
8
25-M
ay-0
8
8-Ju
n-0
8
22-J
un
-08
6-Ju
l-08
20-J
ul-
08
3-A
ug
-08
17-A
ug
-08
31-A
ug
-08
14-S
ep-0
8
28-S
ep-0
8
12-O
ct-0
8
26-O
ct-0
8
9-N
ov-
08
23-N
ov-
08
7-D
ec-0
8
21-D
ec-0
8
no
. o
f h
ead
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
35,000Live Exports to the U.S. pre-BSE(2000-2002) 2008 2007 2006 2002
Source: Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, Weekly Livestock & Meat Report; Canadian Beef Grading Agency; USDA, APHIS
Beef and Cattle ExportsBeef and Cattle Exports
Canadian Fed Steer & Heifer Exports
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
35,000
6-Ja
n-0
8
20-J
an-0
8
3-F
eb-0
8
17-F
eb-0
8
2-M
ar-0
8
16-M
ar-0
8
30-M
ar-0
8
13-A
pr-
08
27-A
pr-
08
11-M
ay-0
8
25-M
ay-0
8
8-Ju
n-0
8
22-J
un
-08
6-Ju
l-08
20-J
ul-
08
3-A
ug
-08
17-A
ug
-08
31-A
ug
-08
14-S
ep-0
8
28-S
ep-0
8
12-O
ct-0
8
26-O
ct-0
8
9-N
ov-
08
23-N
ov-
08
7-D
ec-0
8
21-D
ec-0
8
no
. o
f h
ead
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
35,000Live Exports to the U.S. pre-BSE(2000-2002) 2008 2007 2006
Source: Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, Weekly Livestock & Meat Report; Canadian Beef Grading Agency; USDA, APHIS
CBEF Beef Exports and CBEF Beef Exports and Projections Projections (Million $)(Million $)
Year Japan South Korea
Taiwan Hong Kong
China Mexico USA
2002 96.12 59.83 41.53 2.96 7.10 289.74 1,628.26
2003 42.33 29.48 19.24 1.67 1.88 117.77 1,186.37
2004 0 0 0 38.20 0 353.49 1,474.81
2005 0 0 0 76.38 0 208.26 1,545.99
2006 15.54 0 0 56.59 0 153.33 1,085.04
2007 95.42 11.57 15.72 90.40 1.23 259.08 1,146.60
2008 132.12 46.30 20.96 79.33 14.76 300.99 1,175.72
2009 168.82 78.71 31.44 66.42 27.06 346.71 1,201.20
2010 205.52 111.12 41.92 55.35 39.36 388.62 1,230.32
2015 322.96 148.16 52.40 73.80 54.12 441.96 1,274.00
Beef ExportsBeef Exports
Country 2005 (tonnes) 2006 (tonnes)
Canada USA Canada USA
Japan 0 2,307 2,117 13,736
S. Korea 0 2,106 0 233
Taiwan 0 7,764 0 21,409
H.K/Macau 20,368 0 15,336 3,316
China 0 0 0 134
S.E. Asia 440 17,711 701 5,599
Mexico 52,064 282,215 40,243 371,087
Beef and Cattle ExportsBeef and Cattle Exports
Beef and Cattle ExportsBeef and Cattle Exports
Beef exports to Macau and Hong Kong have replaced Japan in importance
Beef exports to Mexico and U.S. remain strong Cattle exports to U.S. remain strong Loss of key markets such as South Korea means a
loss of high value beef exports The OIE has designated Canada as “controlled
risk” for BSE – meaning that all beef products from Canada are safe for trade
Beef Imports Beef Imports (tonnes)(tonnes)
Year U.S. Australia New Zealand Other
tonnes $’000 tonnes $’000 tonnes $’000 tonnes $’000
2002 81,444 349,701 96,633 292,472 55,239 164,372 67 235
2003 74,003 352,015 39,944 129,066 46,107 139,798 39,442 99,974
2004 15,774 75,089 8,609 42,376 30,683 102,325 24,800 82,195
2005 32,728 163,382 8,403 34,586 30,257 103,958 19,344 66,544
2006 68,365 378,640 10,041 40,336 26,145 84,874 6,875 24,347
2007 (Jan-Nov)
82,886 467,499 10,451 41,308 23,994 79,042 21,477 69,088
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsU.S.U.S.
U.S. re-opened to UTM beef and cattle on July 14, 2005
U.S. re-opened to cattle born after March 1, 1999 on November 19, 2007
U.S. re-opened to OTM beef on November 19, 2007
R-CALF continues to challenge in U.S. courts Next hearing is on February 19, 2008
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsMexicoMexico
Mexico is open to UTM beef Negotiations continue to open Mexico to
live cattle and OTM beefMexico has followed U.S. lead in past and
should open to live cattle and OTM beef in 2008
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsJapanJapan
Japan is open top boneless beef from animals under twenty months of age
This product has proven difficult to supply Japanese market demands high value cuts and is
highly profitable Australia has captured a very large share of the
Japanese market Negotiations continue to expand access but
progress is slow
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsSouth KoreaSouth Korea
South Korea continues to ban all beef from Canada South Korea was an important and profitable
market before BSE Negotiations with Korea are very difficult U.S. has access for boneless UTM but it isn’t “real” Some indications U.S. will get all UTM in 2008 –
Canada as well? Australia has captured a large share of the South
Korean market
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsTaiwanTaiwan
Taiwan is open to boneless UTM from Canada Canada requested full access for all beef in
September 2007 Taiwan has requested additional information and
time to complete a risk assessment Taiwan expects the process to go more quickly
than it did for boneless UTM
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsChinaChina
China is closed to all cattle and beef products from Canada
Canada continues to press for full access but China rejects this
Negotiations are very slow and difficultChina has a fast-growing middle class and
has great potential as an export market
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsRussiaRussia
Canada has access for live cattle and shipments have been made
Canada has access for boneless UTM but Russia has approved only half of the plants Canada submitted
Russia has not issued permits to allow meat shipments from Canada
U.S. has access for all UTM
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsMacau and Hong KongMacau and Hong Kong
Canada has access for all UTM and OTM beef in Macau
Canada has access for boneless UTM in Hong Kong
Macau and Hong Kong are markets of growing importance and in 2006 were Canada’s 3rd and 4th most valuable export markets
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key MarketsOther marketsOther markets
Canada has access for all beef in Cuba, Barbados and Bermuda
Canada has boneless UTM access in many countries in the Caribbean and Central and South America
Canada has access to the EU for all beef but is limited to a quota for hormone-free beef
However, this is a lucrative market that some producers may wish to pursue
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key Markets
Regaining access to key Asian markets continues to be challenging
Many countries are refusing to follow OIE guidelines in granting access
Alberta government continues to press the Federal government to aggressively negotiate for restored access
Access to Key MarketsAccess to Key Markets
Alberta government is working with industry (CCA, ABP, CBEF) to restore market access
Minister Groeneveld advocated for further market openings on his mission to Asia in October 2007
Minister Groeneveld advocated for increased access to Mexico during his meeting with Mexico’s Ambassador to the U.S. in January 2008
Alberta government is closely monitoring R-CALF’s continuing legal challenges
Work with Federal government and industry on legal submissions
WTO NegotiationsWTO Negotiations
Negotiations for a new WTO agreement are ongoing
Agriculture is focused on 3 areas: Agreement to eliminate export subsidies (by 2013?);
world prices should increase Domestic support (agreement on substantial
reductions) Market access (negotiations continue)
WTO NegotiationsWTO Negotiations
An ambitious agreement has substantial potential for beef exports
A recent study by the George Morris Centre concluded that if tariff reductions “on the table” were applied to beef, exports would grow by 174,000 tonnes and $994 million
Alberta’s share would be $646 million
WTO NegotiationsWTO Negotiations
Alberta continues to press the Federal government to negotiate for an ambitious deal at the WTO
A growing middle class in developing countries, such as China, will lead to increased global demand for beef
It is imperative that Alberta’s beef industry gains increased access to these growing markets