sixth northwest conservation & electric power plan interim wholesale electricity price and...

NorthwestPower andConservation

Council


Council

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan

Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production

ForecastsMaury Galbraith

Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilPortland, ORJuly 17, 2008


Council


Council2April 29, 2008 2

AURORAxmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs1. 18 load-resource zones with transmission 2. Demand forecasts (net conservation)3. Existing generating resources4. New generating resource options5. Natural gas and coal price forecasts6. CO2 emission price forecasts7. State restrictions on new coal-fired generation8. Resource additions needed to achieve state RPS targets9. Capacity planning reserve margin targets


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AURORAxmp Electric Market ModelModes and Logic

1. Capacity Expansion Mode: • Selects optimal mix of resource additions for meeting future

demand• Planning Period: 2007 – 2031• Simulation: Every 3rd Hour; M, W, F, Sun; Every 2nd Week

2. Hourly Dispatch Mode: • Determines hourly market-clearing wholesale power prices• Planning Period: 2007 – 2026• Simulation: Every Hour; Every Day; Every Week


Council


Council4April 29, 2008

Revised Natural Gas PricesPNW West

$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9

$10

2007 2012 2017 2022

2006

$/M

MB

tu

Interim Forecast --High Case

Interim Forecast --Base Case

5th Power Plan --Medium


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CO2 Emission Prices

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45

2007 2012 2017 2022

2006

$/to

n of

CO

2

Interim Forecast -High Case

Interim Forecast -Base Case

5th Power Plan -Mean Values


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RPS ModelingSummary of Standard Assumed allocation of new acquisitions

(Energy basis)AZ IOU sales: Annual increments to 15% by 2025

30% min distributed resources.31% load-side; 7% biomass; 27% solar; 34% wind

BC Renewables will continue to account for 90% of generation

20% biomass; 40% hydro; 40% wind

CA IOU sales: 1% min/yr to 20% by 2011COUs: “recognize legislative intent”

10% biomass; 15% geothermal; 25% solar; 50% wind

CO IOU sales: Scheduled increments to 20% by 2020COU sales: Scheduled increments to 10% by 2020

5% solar; 95% wind

MT IOU sales: Scheduled increments to 15% by 2015 25% biomass; 75% wind

NM IOU sales: Scheduled increments to 20% by 2020COU sales: Scheduled increments to 10% by 2020


NV IOU sales: Scheduled increments to 20% by 20155% min solar; 105% credit for conservation to limit

27% conservation; 36% geothermal; 18% solar; 18% wind

OR Large utility sales: Scheduled increments to 25% by 2025. (Medium utilities 10%; small 5% by 2025)


WA Sales of large utilities (17/~ 84% load): Scheduled increments to 20% by 2020.

20% biomass; 5% hydro; 75% wind


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New Resource Overnight Capital Cost Assumptions (2006$/kW)

Fifth Power Plan

Biennial Assessment

High Capital

Cost CaseGas turbines (aeroderivative) $680 $680 $840

Gas turbines (frame) $420 $420 $520

Combined-cycle $590 $590 $730

Pulverized coal-steam $1,450 $1,450 $1,900

Integrated gasification combined-cycle (without CS)

$1,620 $1,750 $2,100

Integrated gasification combined-cycle (with 90% CS)

$2,090 $2,300 $2,700

Solar photovoltaics $4,920 $3,288 $5,820

Wind power $910 $1,500 $1,650


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Interim Base CaseWECC Resource Expansion 2007-26

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

20072011

20152019

2023

Dis

patc

hed

Ener

gy (M

Wa)

AURORA NG SCCT

AURORA Solar

AURORA IGCC w\ Seq

AURORA IGCC wo\ Seq

AURORA Steam Coal

AURORA NG CCCT

AURORA Wind

RPS


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Interim High Capital Cost CaseWECC Resource Expansion 2007-26

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

20072011

20152019

2023

Dis

patc

hed

Ener

gy (M

Wa) AURORA NG SCCT

AURORA IGCC wo\ Seq

AURORA NG CCCT

AURORA Wind

RPS


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Interim High Capital Cost Case PNW Resource Expansion 2007-26

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

20072011

20152019

2023

Dis

patc

hed

Ener

gy (M

Wa) RPS Hydro

RPS Solar

RPS Geothermal

RPS Biomass

RPS Wind


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Base Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

2007 2012 2017 2022

2006

$/M

Wh

5th Plan Final

Biennial Assessment

Draft Interim Base Case

Final Interim Base Case

Interim High Capital CostCase


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Sensitivity Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

2007 2012 2017 2022

2006

$/M

Wh

Interim Base Case

Interim High Capital CostCase

Interim High CO2 PriceCase

High Capital Cost/HighCO2 Price Case

Interim High Fuel PriceCase

Interim No IncrementalRPS Case


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Impact of Incremental RPS Resource Additions on NW Wholesale Power Market Price(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.)

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

Cumulative Capability (MW)

Dis

patc

h C

ost (

nom

inal

$/M

Wh) Hydro

Nuclear

Wind

Coal/Biomass

NG CCCT/Biogas

NG SCCT/Fuel Oil/Demand Response

Demand

Without Incremental RPS


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Sensitivity Case CO2 ProductionWECC Annual Emissions

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2007 2012 2017 2022

Mill

ion

Tons

Interim Base Case

Interim High Fuel PriceCase

Interim High CO2 PriceCase

Interim No IncrementalRPS CaseInterim High Capital CostCase


5th Plan Portfolio


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Sensitivity Case CO2 ProductionNW Annual Emissions

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2007 2012 2017 2022

Mill

ion

Tons

Interim Base Case

Interim High CapitalCost Case


Est. 1990 Level


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Impact of High CO2 Prices on NW Supply(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.)

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000Cumulative Capability (MW)

Dis

patc

h C

osts

(nom

inal

$/M

Wh)

with Base CO2 Prices

with High CO2 Prices

Demand


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Interim Wholesale Power Price Forecast Paper

http://www.nwcouncil.org/library/2008/2008-05.htm

sixth northwest conservation & electric power plan interim wholesale electricity price and...

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