Six Stops to Success:Getting Ready for the Ballot

January 14, 2014Washington, DC

Today’s Speakers• Jason Jordan, Director, Center for

Transportation Excellence• Tim Heberlein, Political Director,

Florida Consumer Action Network• Curt Below, Senior Vice President,

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3)

EARLY ACTION STEPSJason Jordan, CFTE

1. Basic Research• Who decides about going to the

ballot? Who controls the process?• What funding tools are available?• What flexibility do you have on

timing?• What is the process for ballot

language?• Any restrictions?• Who’s involved?

2. Evaluation of Timing + Environment

• When to go to the ballot?• What else will be on the ballot?• What’s the likely political climate?

3. Project Development• Identify specific projects• Identify and quantify specific benefits• Run the numbers• Think about the map

4. Early Education + Outreach

• Use agency public meeting and outreach processes

• Set up the “problem” to be solved• Think about non-campaign

advertising• Understand (and deal with) the

agency’s image• Engage key advocacy groups• Cultivate champions

5. Coalition Building• Be broad and creative• But, have a champion and a leader• Leverage existing networks• Plan for the transition from “inside”

to “outside”

6. Early Intel• Poll• Test everything• Know your voters … and, organize to

reach them

7. Make a Plan• And, write it down.

ORGANIZING FIELD OPERATIONS

Tim Heberlein, Florida Consumer Action Network

About MeWorked in Grassroots organizing since 2006Electoral and Legislative OrganizingTransplant military brat

About FCANFounded 1984Progressive non-partisan non-profit c4 with a

c3 foundationBuild power through grassroots lobbying,

community organizing, and coalition building

Greenlight PinellasElimination of PSTA’s nearly 3/4 mill property tax when the

potential $.01 sales tax takes effect January 1, 2016 A 65% increase in overall bus service throughout Pinellas

County Bus Rapid Transit lines on most major Pinellas corridors.

Buses running to and from Tampa and the airport in the evenings and on weekends

A four-fold increase in bus service in northern Pinellas County

Longer service hours to accommodate second shift workers and evening travelers

Future passenger rail from St. Petersburg to Clearwater via the Gateway/Carillon area

Key ComponentsField Communications

Building out the Field Recruiting

Spell out your needs (“Activist Menu”)Coalitions: Political tables, labor, ridership,

advocacyAt transit-related and transit-likely supportive

eventsFrom the field: An ask in every contact

RetainingParades for small victoriesUse as Leadership Development opportunities

Field cont.Voter Targeting

Know your win numberKnow the landscapePast transit referendumsDown ballot Vote Loss

Use Polling and be data drivenCreating a transit support model (there are some

already out there!)Measuring responses from the field

Changing the MessageNarrative is framing the conversation from your

perspective “Wall Street Fat Cats” vs “Job Creators”What do you want that message to be

“_______ is better with transit.”Who are the opinion makers (Grasstops leaders,

Media, Electeds, donors, etc.)Engaging the public

Public events / transit eventsOutreach (businesses, electeds, Grasstops leaders)

Micro-polling to temperature check

Other TipsTrack success in the field through data as

well as storiesCelebrate the campaign – retain your human

resourcesContinuous feedback from the field to donors,

allies, media, etc.

SummaryRecruit and RetainBe data drivenFrame the debateBuild the echo chamberRepeat repeat repeatTest, Adjust, repeat

Your organizations should be stronger after each campaign.

My contact Infotim@fcan.org(813)532-9846@timintampa

Questions?

POLLING + EARLY CAMPAIGN INTELLIGENCE

Curt Below, FM3

Using Opinion Research to Shape Transportation Ballot Measure

Campaigns

January 14, 2014 – Curtis Below

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For campaigns, polling is not a crystal ball; instead it is a strategic tool, used for shaping and targeting messages. It tells a campaign:

Where you start Who you need to talk to What you need to tell them What kind of impact you can have

It is the key to allocating scarce resources effectively to have the maximum impact and increase the chances of winning.

The Goals of Campaign Polling

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On most community and public policy issues, elected officials and institutions hear from a tiny – but vocal – fraction of the population: “the squeaky wheels.” Typically, there is a silent majority which can feel strikingly different than the vocal minority. Research provides perspective on what the broader whole thinks and says.

Research can provide perspective and dispel the “squeaky wheel”

phenomenon.

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“In your own words, what does the term ‘watershed’ mean to you?”

1999 survey of 850 Santa Clara County, CA residents

47% Don’t know

27% A geographic area through which water flows to a common destination

26% A building or shed used to store water

Research can also highlight how important specific language can be.

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Where Policy Meets Politics:The Brownie Box

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With limited time and/or limited dollars, a

campaign needs to hit the mark on the first try.

And opinion research makes you…

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Closed-end questions;

Large number of people;

Limited number of questions;

Broad data, generalized results;

Answers “what?” and “how many?”

Open-end discussion;

Small groups of people;

In-depth probing;

Understanding perceptions, opinions, beliefs, and attitudes;

Answers “why?” and “how?

The Two Major Types of Research

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Feasibility Poll

Most comprehensive poll; conducted shortly after structure and language of measure are set. Determines targeting, messages, and strategy.

Baseline/Benchmark Poll

Brief early poll to determine what type of ballot measure and/or funding source is most viable.

If necessary and within budget, conducted in final weeks before Election Day, to measure progress and adjust strategy accordingly.

Tracking Poll

Polling in a Campaign Context

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Sample Size: How Many People Should We Interview?

The number of people that are interviewed is largely dependent on resources/declining value for margin of error.

The more people you interview the more accurate your results will be.

Think of the population as an entire pot of soup.

Just a few spoonfuls will give you a taste;

But a lot of spoonfuls will give you a much better sense of the full flavor.

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Sample Size Determines Margin of Error

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There are several types of questions, some standard that you will likely see across surveys and questions that are campaign specific.

In a survey, there are generally two types of questions -- the closed-ended and open-ended questions.

The closed-ended question offers only a set number of responses for survey participants to select from. Virtually ALL the questions you ask on a survey are closed-ended.

The open-ended question gives the participant the freedom to respond at-length and in their own words. Responses are recorded verbatim by the interviewer and later transcribed. Only one or two open-ended questions should be asked on a survey.

Types of Survey Questions

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1) Screening questions to ID likely voters2) Background/contextual questions: right direction/ wrong

track, favorability ratings, etc.3) Draft 75-word ballot question4) Open-ended question on reasons for vote5) Evaluating relative concern about transportation issues6) Testing aspects of ballot measure structure (mechanisms,

rates, durations, etc.)7) Ranking importance of specific transportation projects8) Testing the impact of accountability mechanisms9) Pro arguments, followed by a re-vote10) Con arguments, followed by a revote11) Demographics (age, gender, race, income, party, etc.)

A Typical Transportation Campaign Questionnaire Structure

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We focus on the following: Who are the campaign’s base supporters, and

who are potential swing voters? How large and well-defined a group are the

swing voters? How much do they move? Which messages and messengers have the

greatest impact with them? Is there a focused message you can deliver to a

specific target to make an impact?

Analysis of the Results

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Examples from Napa County, CA

(Measure T) Survey Research

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In November 2012, Napa County voters approved (75% YES to 25% NO) Measure T, a one-half cent sales tax to fund transportation projects.

Building on prior research conducted in 2007 and 2008, in May 2010 FM3 conducted a feasibility survey which helped lead to Measure T and shape it’s structure and framing.

Napa County, CA Measure T

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69%

24%

2%

3%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Great need

Some need

Little need

No need

DK/NA

Voters see a great need for additional road repair funding;

congestion relief is a lower priority.

Total Yes93%

Q5/6 Split Sample

Total No5%

39%

33%

9%

14%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total Yes72%

Total No

23%

Road Repairs Congestion Relief and Transportation Improvements

Do you believe there is a great need, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for in Napa County?

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73%

56%

72%

65%

63%

52%

16%

35%

23%

28%

21%

27%

33%

9%

4%

59% 15%

4%

14%

6%

5%

10%

2%

1 %

5%

1 %

1 %

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2010

2007

2010

2007

2010

2007

High Medium Low DK/NA

The proportion of voters who assign a high priority to road

repairs has grown.

11. I am going to read you a list of potential ways that money from this ballot measure might be spent. Please tell me whether you would give a high, medium or low priority to __________? Split Sample

(Ranked by 2010 % High)

Fixing potholes and making urgent street and road repairs

Maintaining city streets and county roads

Making Napa County eligible for its fair share of state and federal

transportation funds

Ensuring that sidewalks and other pedestrian pathways are accessible to

disabled persons

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50%

45%

58%

43%

51%

29%

39%

27%

38%

30%

27%

32%

2%

2%

54%

43%

13%

14%

14%

28%

17%

13%

19%

3%

3%

1 %

3%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2010

2007

2010

2007

2010

2007

High Medium Low DK/NA

The priority assigned to every other area dropped.

11. I am going to read you a list of potential ways that money from this ballot measure might be spent. Please tell me whether you would give a high, medium or low priority to __________? Split Sample

Improving traffic light synchronization so that traffic moves faster along Highway 29

Improving safety on streets and roads

Reducing traffic congestion

Synchronizing traffic signals

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Vehicle Registration FeeLanguage Tested

Relieve traffic congestion; Improve traffic flow on local highways,

roads and intersections countywide; Improve pedestrian walkways and

bike paths; and Reduce pollution that causes global

warming;

Fix potholes and repair local streets and roads;

Improve safety and traffic flow on local highways, roads and intersections countywide;

Synchronize traffic signals; Improve pedestrian walkways and

bike paths; and Reduce pollution that causes global

warming;

NAPA COUNTY TRAFFIC CONGESTION RELIEF AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT MEASURE

Shall the Napa County Transportation Planning Agency levy a $10 vehicle registration fee for each vehicle registered in Napa County, subject to citizen oversight and annual independent audits?

200 Interviews 400 Interviews

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28%

14%

2%

0%

5%

40%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Undecided, lean yes

Undecided, lean no

Probably no

Definitely no

Undecided

A VRF measure that would include funding for road repair

garners majority support.

Total Yes44%

Total No

51%

30%

23%

4%

2%

3%

29%

9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Total Yes57%

Total No

40%

First 200:Without Road Repair

Final 400:With Road Repair

+/-% of Change

+13%

-11%

-2%

8 (Total) First 200/Final 400. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?

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41%

35%

34%

33%

40%

39%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Very Conv. S.W. Conv.

The most compelling message in favor of the measure highlights

the need to take an initial step toward repairing roads.

12. First, here are some statements from supporters. Pease tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on the measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample

(Ranked by % Very Convincing)

74%

75%

73%

^It is no secret that local streets and roads in Napa County are in horrible shape. In fact, a recent analysis by an independent

agency ranked our roads among the worst in the region. We can’t rely on Sacramento to take care of this problem for us. We

must act now to take the first step toward doing something about it.

By law, this measure must provide direct benefits to motorists who pay the fee. Unlike other funding measures, every cent

generated from this measure must be spent on local transportation improvements in the area in which it is raised so that each city in the County can fund its highest transportation

priorities.

This measure will provide a stable, reliable and dedicated source of funding for transportation improvements that will be

kept at the local level, and cannot be diverted to other purposes or taken away by Sacramento.

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43%

41%

36%

24%

21%

25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Very Conv. S.W. Conv.

Anti-tax sentiments connected to the economy are the most

persuasive arguments in opposition to the measure.

14. Next, here are some statements from people who oppose the measure. After hearing each statement, please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote no on the measure. ^Not part of Split Sample.

(Ranked by % Very Convincing)

67%

62%

61%

We are still in the midst of the worst economy in decades, unemployment continues to rise and people are still losing

their homes. Now is not the time to raise taxes.

With a multi-billion dollar state budget deficit, and a weak economy, now is not the time to raise taxes.

^We are overtaxed already. If County officials want to improve our transportation system, they should tighten

their belts and find the money in the existing budget.

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44%25%

3%

0%

1%

21%6%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Definitely yesProbably yes

Undecided, lean yes

Undecided, lean noProbably noDefinitely no

Undecided

Voters express strong support for a half cent sales tax

measure that would not increasethe existing tax rate.

Total Yes72%

7. I know five to six years from now is a long way off, but if the election were held today and the half cent sales tax measure to repair and improve local streets and roads and reduce traffic congestion were on the ballot, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?

Total No

27%

45

81%

61% 67

%

18%

38%

33%

1% 1% 0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Democrat Republican DTS/Other

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Democrats and independent voters offer higher levels

of support.Party

(49%) (19%)(% of Sample) (32%)

7. I know five to six years from now is a long way off, but if the election were held today and the half cent sales tax measure to repair and improve local streets and roads and reduce traffic congestion were on the ballot, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?

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Stress the economic benefits of the measure in terms of job creation – both direct and indirect.

Make low per-household costs clear. Highlight specific, flagship projects that are locally

important.

Strategies for Local Revenue Success

Emphasize that funds will be spent locally – not at the state level.

Highlight fiscal accountability provisions – audits, oversight, public disclosure, sunset provisions, etc.

For more information, contact:

1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290Oakland, CA 94612

Phone (510) 451-9521Fax (510) 451-0384

Curt@FM3research.com

Upcoming WebinarsFebruary 18, 2014Funding Your Campaign

March 25, 2014Making Friends for Transit Investment

April 15, 2014Going Multimodal at the Ballot Box

Register at www.cfte.org/six-stops

Questions?Jason Jordan

Director, CFTEjjordan@cfte.org

@jasonljordanwww.cfte.org

Thanks to our cosponsor