sis energy futures research graham 2007
DESCRIPTION
Scientists in Schools Program - Presentations from the Energy and Climate Change SymposiumTRANSCRIPT
ww
w.c
siro
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Energy Futures Research
Paul Graham
Scientists in Schools Symposium 2007
Addressing climate changeAddressing climate change
• 2°C warming is often discussed as a temperature target• The probability that 550 ppm eCO2 would avoid more than 2°C
warming is only about 5%.
• A concentration target of 450ppm eCO2 would avoid the risk of more than 2°C degree warming with a probability of 40%.
• Global emission changes consistent with achieving 550ppm and 450pm by 2050 are around 1990 levels (+10% to -10%) and -15 % to -40% below 1990 levels respectively.
• Differentiated emission targets by 2050 that might be consistent with these global concentration targets are as follows:
• 450ppm: Developed countries emissions 80% below 1990, developing country emissions 50% above 1990.
• 550ppm: Developed country emissions 60% below 1990, developing country emissions 110% above 1990.
Base case emission targetsBase case emission targets
0
50
100
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450
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mt
CO
2e
BAU
EMS1990
EMS1990-60
Model output
Imposed as model constraint
EMS1 ~ 325Mt GHG abatement
EMS2 ~ 405Mt GHG abatement
1990 level
60% below 1990 level
Three cases exploredThree cases explored
Base case
• All technology options available
CO2 capture and storage infeasible
Gradual emission path• A slower start to reaching the emission reduction target in
2050
Base case technology cost projectionsBase case technology cost projections
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1000
2000
3000
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6000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
AU
D/k
W
Black coal pf
Black coal IGCC
Black coal CCS
Black coal partial CCS
Brown coal pf
Brown coal IGCC
Brown coal CCS
Brown coal partial CCS
Gas combined cycle
Gas CCS
Gas peak
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
Wind
Solar thermal
Hot fractured rocks
Base case renewables policy assumptionsBase case renewables policy assumptions
• We only assume minimum renewable electricity generation maounts in NSW and Victoria of 10 and 15% respectively. More states will follow suit
• Recently announced national 30,000GWh Clean Energy Target is equivalent to 11% base case generation in 2020
• 2020 renewables share in the modelling is as follows:
Hydro Non-hydro renewablesAll renewablesBase 1990 5.0 3.7 8.7
1990-60 5.2 11.9 17.1Gradual emis. path 1990 5.0 3.5 8.6
1990-60 5.0 3.7 8.7CCS infeasible 1990 5.0 3.7 8.7
1990-60 5.3 12.9 18.2Low demand 1990 5.1 3.8 8.9
1990-60 5.3 11.1 16.4Abundant gas 1990 5.0 3.6 8.6
1990-60 5.0 7.9 12.9
EmissionEmission intensity of targets vs. technologiesintensity of targets vs. technologies
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0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
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0.6
0.7
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0.9
1
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
tCO
2/M
Wh
1990 1990-60NGCC Coal+85%CCSGas+CCS Black coal SCCoal+50%CCS
Base case - 1990 emissions by 2050Base case - 1990 emissions by 2050
0
50
100
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450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
DG
Wind
Biomass
Gas peak
Gas combinedcycle
Black coalpartial CCS
Brown coal CCS
Black coal pf
Brown coal pf
Hydro
Base case - 60% below 1990 emissions Base case - 60% below 1990 emissions by 2050by 2050
0
50
100
150
200
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450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
DG
Solar thermal
Hot fracturedrocksWind
Biomass
Gas peak
Gas CCS
Gas combinedcycleBlack coal CCS
Brown coal CCS
Black coal pf
Brown coal pf
Hydro
Wholesale electricity pricesWholesale electricity prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$/M
Wh
BAU
EMS1990
EMS1990-60
CCS infeasible case – 1990 emissions by 2050CCS infeasible case – 1990 emissions by 2050
0
50
100
150
200
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300
350
400
450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
DG
Solar thermal
Hot fracturedrocks
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas peak
Gas combinedcycle
Black coal IGCC
Black coal pf
Brown coal pf
Hydro
CCS infeasible case – 60% below 1990 CCS infeasible case – 60% below 1990 emissions by 2050emissions by 2050
0
50
100
150
200
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400
450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
DG
Solar thermal
Hot fracturedrocks
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas peak
Gas combinedcycle
Black coal pf
Brown coal pf
Hydro
Gradual emission path caseGradual emission path case
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mt
CO
2e
BAU
EMS1990
EMS1990-60
EMS1990 - gradual introduction
EMS1990-60 - gradual introduction
Gradual emission path case – 1990 emissions Gradual emission path case – 1990 emissions by 2050 by 2050
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
DG
Wind
Biomass
Gas peak
Gas combinedcycle
Black coalpartial CCS
Brown coal CCS
Black coal pf
Brown coal pf
Hydro
Gradual emission path case – 60% below Gradual emission path case – 60% below 1990 emissions by 2050 1990 emissions by 2050
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TW
h
DG
Solar thermal
Hot fracturedrocksWind
Biomass
Gas peak
Gas CCS
Gas combinedcycleBlack coal CCS
Brown coal CCS
Black coal pf
Brown coal pf
Hydro
Key findingsKey findings
• Gas prices, the emission reduction target and path and the successful demonstration of new technologies are key uncertainties in understanding the electricity sector’s response to climate change
• Nuclear and natural gas with carbon capture become competitive only if the rate of emission reduction is high prior to 2030. There may be no competitive window if targets are phased in more gradually.
• New black coal plant which captures 50% of its CO2 emissions is viable for an emission target at 1990 levels by 2050, but only full capture is viable for deeper cuts.
• If CO2 capture and sequestration is not feasible the next most competitive alternatives are initially nuclear then renewables, in particular hot fractured rocks. Nuclear power only appears in the scenario where CCS is not viable.