siriuscon 2017 - sirius-powered risk modelling and simulation in industry 4.0 supply chains
TRANSCRIPT
www.cetic.be Centre d’Excellence en Technologiesdel’Informationet de la Communication
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Sirius-powered Risk Modelling and Simulation in Industry 4.0 Supply Chains
Christophe PonsardSiriusCON, Paris 2017
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Context – Risks Management in Supply Chains
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Example of Procurement Risks
Supplier Ain Seattle Supplier B
in Osaka
Customerin Hamburg
Riskarea
Legend
LA,R1
T1,B,R1
T2,B,R1T2,B,R2
T2,B,R3
LB,R1
T1,A,R1
T1,A,R2
T2,A,R1
T2,B
T1,BT1,A T2,A
Politics
Technology
Eco-nomy
Ecology
Social
Risk of multinational enterprisesaccording to Dunning
Risktypes
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End-to-end Risk Management in Supply Chains
Warehouse risk(Delay)Quality
Production riskDelayQuality
Warehouse risk(Delay)Quality
[Production Risks (internal)]
[Procurement Risks (external)]
[External Risks (external]
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State of practice in SMEs (survey performed in 2015)
https://www.cetic.be/Management-of-Procurement-Risks-on-Manufacturing-Processes
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SimQRi Project Context
• Towards Quantitative Risk Management in Supply Chains
• Main goal:
• Develop a practical tool-supported methodology to help SMEs assessing the risks and mitigating their impact in the production process
• Approach: modelling and simulation toolbox
• Modelling supply chains
• Identifying delay, quantity, bad quality,…
• Expressing them with model queries
• Efficiently simulate alternative designs to reduce risk
http://simqri.cetic.be and http://simqri.com
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Modelling Supply Chains and Risks
• Suppliers + supply policies
• Storages
• Processes
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Queries
• Probes on model element: e.g. relativeContent(storage) totalWaitDuration(process), …
• Composed probes
• Percentage of working time for a processworktime(p) := 100 * (time – totalWaitDuration(p)) / time
• Carbon footprint:CF(order) := upplier(order).dist*CO2_FACTOR_TRUCK_PER_KM
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SimQRi - EMF Meta-model
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SimQRi - Tool Architecture
• Actually a dual tool with a common simulation engine• Web-based • Eclipse-based
• Technology mix:
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BIRT(reporting)
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Web-based Version (« beer game » model)
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Eclipse Version (Green Supply Chain)
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SimQRi - Web-based UINot a Good Experience
Joint.JS selected as JavaScript among some candidatesGlobally did the job, however:• Not configurator-based as Sirius ⇒ JavaScript programming • Need to buy full (non-open source) version or spend time reinventing the
wheel if you want features like UNDO/REDO• Integrating more stuff, e.g. dashboard, was painful• Proved hard to maintain (kept as “simplified tool” in the end)
Comparing pure UI development effort:
With joint-JS With Sirius
First usable prototype 3 months 3 weeks (1 week training)
Full scope Not achieved after 18 months 6 months
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Another feedback on learning curve
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SimQRi - Eclipse VersionComplexity of Project Set-up
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SimQRi - Ease of Evolution in Eclipse Green Supply Chains
• Garbage production• special type of output of a process through a "trash" port • connected to a dedicated overflow storage named "Garbage“• total quantity of garbage= Garbage.totalPut()
• Energy Usage:• “energy counter” updated on processed/storages per processed item• can depend on load, e.g. EnergyCounter+=MaxEnergyPerBatch*(1-Load)
• Carbon footprint:• Transportation: OP_A.quantity*Supplier_A.dist*CO2_FACTOR_TRUCK• Production: using specific attributes
success.CF=part_A.CF+part_B.CF+part_C.CF EnergyPerBatch*(1-Load)*CO2_FACTOR
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SimQRi - Ease of Evolution in Eclipse: Simulation of Cloud Computing Elasticity
• total energy (on whole system) = SaaS level energy modelsum(Process.allInstances()->select(p:Process|p.energy*p.processedRequests))
• missed request ratio (on the FRONT process)FRONT.processedRequests/FRONT.incommingRequests
• average response time (on a chain):avg(sum(ProcessChain.allInstances()->select(p:Process | p.runtime)))
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SimQRI - Community Support
• Web-based: • Join.js: good tutorials, forums• Need to buy RAPPID commercial version to get all features
e.g. undo/redo
• Eclipse-based: • Full editing features • Good tutorials, forums• Strong support from Obeo community • Obeo training useful for a quick learning curve• Collaborative work
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Integration with the OscaR engine
A library for operational research encompassing:
• State of the art optimization engines: CP, CBLS, MIP, DFO
• Discrete simulation engine
• Visualization
Scala 2.11, Open source LGPL
Release 4.0.0 in September 2016
• Simulation using OscaR.DES (Open Source)• Built on top of a task-resource model• Incremental evaluation throughout the simulation run
i.e. no trace stored, no post-processing• Minimal updates of only the relevant fragment of queries• Bottom-up updates to allow the sharing of sub-queries
• Monte Carlo techniques for aggregating results
• Availability of specific statistical operators (mean, avg, std dev,…)
• Computation of distributions
oscarlib.org
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OscaR integration
• AQL query to extract queries
• Model transformation to translate into OscaR.DES
• Running MCS over DES engine
• Injecting result back into model
• GeneratingBIRT reports
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Integration with BIRT for Reporting
• First: tried to setup ecore as data source
• Finally used intermediate XML format
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On-going work: Optimised Risk Mitigation
• Tuning the model in order to minimise costs induced by risks
• Now: simple “explorer” functionality to change the values of a single parameter to find out its optimal value (the other being unchanged) –e.g. optimal ordering threshold
• Current work (PRIMa-q) : use optimisation (constantly) minimizing risks
• Risk robust strategies (scheduling)
• On-line Stochastic Optimisation
• Based on the Oscar.CBLS engine (efficient, scalable, online) oscarlib.org
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Conclusions and Ideas
• Sirius approach• Proved evolvable to other domains• Some learning curve but quickly recovered• Easier to maintain/evolve• Related technologies are quite widely used and well known• Our work also released as open source to SME (and everyone)
GitHub: https://github.com/cetic/SimQRI
• Web version• Too specific and hard to maintain• Code not released (possible licence issues)• But nice showcase, interesting SaaS mode what about a “web-based” Sirius in the future ?
• Text integration• Xtext integration great• Looking into Office suite integration like Open/Libre Office & Microsoft Office
see EclipseCON talk and more on-going work
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QUESTIONS ?
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Tool homepagehttps://simqri.cetic.be
Open Source repohttps://github.com/cetic/SimQRI
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linkedin.com/company/cetic
+32 71 159 362
twitter.com/@CETIC twitter.com/@CETIC_be
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Aéropole de Charleroi-Gosselies Avenue Jean Mermoz 286041 Charleroi - Belgique
Questions?
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