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SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen @tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

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Page 1: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

SIPES/HAPL LuncheonHouston, TX

David Heikkinendheikkinen

@tudorpickering.com713-333-2975

*Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

Page 2: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

2

Commodities (before peak)CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS COAL

WHEAT US DOLLAR GOLD

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$95Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

Page 3: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

3

Commodities (to current)CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS COAL

WHEAT US DOLLAR GOLD

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Jan-

06

Jun-

06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07

Feb-

08

Jul-

08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Jan-

06

Jun-

06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07

Feb-

08

Jul-

08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Jan-

06

Jun-

06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07

Feb-

08

Jul-

08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Jan-

06

Jun-

06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07

Feb-

08

Jul-

08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$95Ja

n-06

Jun-

06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07

Feb-

08

Jul-

08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

Jan-

06

Jun-

06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep-

07

Feb-

08

Jul-

08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

Page 4: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

4

Futures – Are They Accurate?

"That's mathematics, son.  You can argue with me, but

you can't argue with figures.“ Foghorn

Leghorn

-60%

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

Jan-99

Jan-01

Jan-03

Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

NYM

EX S

trip

, Pr

edic

ted

- Ac

tual

, %

Strip Too High

(Strip Too Low)

Page 5: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

5

Shalemania

Long Term – ample gas supply

□ Need fewer rigs in fewer places

□ Shales will grow

□ Everywhere else declines

Near Term – declines kicking in

□ Current rig count unsustainable…too low

□ 2010 – activity pick-up…but service pricing?

Crude oil

□ The Rod Tidwell of energy “You’re loving me now!”

□ Lots of desire to “get oily”…but harder to accomplish

Page 6: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

6

Why Shale? Meet GOM Production

“I can hardly remember how I built my bankroll, but I can't stop thinking about the way I lost it." Mike….Rounders

6

8

10

12

14

16

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

bc

f/d

ay

Page 7: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Major Producing Basins

7Source: TPH Estimates

32 separate production regions…including the 6 major shale plays

“According to the map we've only gone 4 inches.” Harry…Dumb and Dumber

Page 8: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

TPH Natural Gas Wellhead Supply Model

Define basin area

Pull historical production data from HPDI

Review data and analyze vintage performance

Construct base & new well models

Develop theoretical type curves

Tie rig count to new production

Match new well type curve model to actual performance of wells completed in 2008

History match the base wedge model to actual basin production

Aggregate base and new well models

Check total history match

Combine rig count projection with forward type curve and base decline models

Run sensitivities

+ +

Base New Wells Forecast

=

Supply Model

8

Page 9: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

Barnett Production

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

01/ 07 04/ 07 07/ 07 10/ 07 01/ 08 04/ 08 07/ 08 10/ 08 01/ 09 04/ 09 07/ 09 10/ 09

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(mm

cf/d

)

Historical Production Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Base Decline

Step I: Developing the Basin Type Curve

Base production (12/07) includes ~8,400 wells with total production of 3.7 bcf/d

2008 activity: 185 rigs drilled 2,930 new wells, increasing production by 32% or 1.2 bcf/d

726wells

791wells

728wells

685wells

~8,400 wellsin YE07 base

9

Q1 Q2

Q3 Q4

New Wells

Base Production

Barnett Shale

Source: Rig Count = Rig Data, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas

Page 10: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

Step II: Quarterly Type Curve History Match

Barnett Shale: Q4'08 Type Curve Math

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Month

Dai

ly P

rodu

ctio

n (m

cf/d

)

Forecast Actual Data

Barnett Shale: Q3'08 Type Curve Match

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Month

Dai

ly P

rodu

ctio

n (m

cf/d

)

Forecast Actual Data

Barnett Shale: Q1'08 Type Curve Match

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Month

Daily P

roduct

ion (m

cf/d

)

Forecast Actual Data

Barnett Shale: Q2'08 Type Curve Math

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Month

Daily P

roduct

ion (m

cf/d

)

Forecast Actual Data

Peak Rate = 1,550 mcf/d1st Year Decline = -60%Hyperbolic factor = 1.5Final Decline = -5%EUR = 2,000 mmcf

Peak Rate = 1,550 mcf/d1st Year Decline = -60%Hyperbolic factor = 1.5Final Decline = -5%EUR = 2,000 mmcf

Peak Rate = 1,450 mcf/d1st Year Decline = -60%Hyperbolic factor = 1.5Final Decline = -5%EUR = 1,900 mmcf

Peak Rate = 1,650 mcf/d1st Year Decline = -60%Hyperbolic factor = 1.5Final Decline = -5%EUR = 2,100 mmcf

Variation in production characteristics from quarter to quarter is small

10Source: Rig Count = Rig Data, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas

Page 11: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

Barnett Production Forecast - 33% First Year Decline Rate

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

01/ 07 04/ 07 07/ 07 10/ 07 01/ 08 04/ 08 07/ 08 10/ 08 01/ 09 04/ 09 07/ 09 10/ 09

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(mm

cf/d

)

Historical Production Calibration

Step III: Understanding Base DeclineBiggest factor in calibrating the Barnett is the base production

decline

All wells completed prior to ‘08 used to calculate base decline

Calibration requires balancing hyperbolic factor, curve fit of base production, and performance of new wells completed

Assume: Hyperbolic factor for base production is the same as ‘08 new well groups. An important and realistic constraint for a ‘pure’ play region

Regression modeling suggests a -33% base decline rate

Base Decline Match

Historical Production

[wells completed prior to 2008]

11Source: Rig Count = Rig Data, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas

Page 12: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

Step IV: Calibrating Base Decline

Known data points: 12/07 production (start = 3.7 bcf/d) and 12/08 production (exit = 4.9 bcf/d)

Layer in 2008 growth using 2,930 wells drilled and type curves

Given the 1.5 b-factor, solve for implied base decline rate…in this case -33% for the Barnett

Barnett Production Forecast - 33% First Year Decline

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

01/ 07 04/ 07 07/ 07 10/ 07 01/ 08 04/ 08 07/ 08 10/ 08 01/ 09 04/ 09 07/ 09 10/ 09

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(mm

cf/d

)

Actual Base Decline Historical Production Calibration Base Calibration

Known

3.7 bcf/d

Known

4.9 bcf/d

High confidence in production from new well “wedges”

R2 = 0.98

R2 = 0.98

12

α = decline in base production

α = 33%

Barnett Shale

Source: Rig Count = Rig Data, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas

Page 13: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Wellhead Supply Forecast[Barnett Shale]

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

12/ 99 12/ 00 12/ 01 12/ 02 12/ 03 12/ 04 12/ 05 12/ 06 12/ 07 12/ 08 12/ 09 12/ 10 12/ 11 12/ 12 12/ 13

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(bcf

/d)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Rig Count

Historical Production Forecasted Production Rig Count

Barnett Scenario – Holding Rig Count Flat

‘09 exit rate down 0.6 bcf/d y/y

Production bottoms mid-2011 at 4.0 bcf/d and stays relatively flat through 2013 as drilling balances field declines

Rig Count

Production Forecast

Production History

13Source: Rig Count = Rig Data, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas.

Page 14: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Wellhead Supply Forecast[South Texas]

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

12/ 99 12/ 00 12/ 01 12/ 02 12/ 03 12/ 04 12/ 05 12/ 06 12/ 07 12/ 08 12/ 09 12/ 10 12/ 11 12/ 12 12/ 13

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(bcf

/d)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Rig Count

Historical Production Forecasted Production Rig Count

South Texas Scenario – Holding Rig Count Flat

Declines already occurring in this basin

‘09 exit rate down 0.9 bcf/d y/y

‘10 exit rate down 0.6 bcf/d y/y

This a mature basin!Rig Count

Production Forecast

Production History

14Source: Rig Count = Rig Data, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas

You don't need to be thinking immortality -- you need to be thinking hit the 7 iron! Romeo Posar: Tin Cup

Page 15: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

What Does it Mean?Current

Rig count unsustainably low

□ 2010 production declines 10%...2011 an additional 5%

□ Gas Prices need to rise to entice more drilling

Gas Production is falling…now!

Longer Term

Fewer rigs in fewer places

□ 1500 total rigs in 2011…compared to 2350 peak in 2008

□ Marginal cost of supply matters…$6.5/mcf medium/long term

Asset values (service and E&P) will reflect growth and non-growth areas (i.e, GOM analogy)

15

Page 16: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Wellhead Supply Forecast[Onshore + Offshore]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

12/ 99 12/ 00 12/ 01 12/ 02 12/ 03 12/ 04 12/ 05 12/ 06 12/ 07 12/ 08 12/ 09 12/ 10 12/ 11 12/ 12 12/ 13

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(bcf

/d)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Rig Count

Historical Production Flat Rig Count ForecastFlat Rig Count + Shale Growth Forecast Flat Rig + Shale Growth + Non-Shale Growth ForecastRig Count

Step 3 – Add Non-Shales (Our Base Case)

Rig Count

Production Forecast

Production History

16

~1,500 total rigs long term

2010 rig count build (peaking at 1,640 rigs)

Pullback (~120 rigs) in 2011 as market is oversupplied

Shift to unconventional (shale) drilling is key

Only ~1,500 rigs needed to balance market longer term…shales and non-shales

Page 17: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Wellhead Supply Forecast[Shale Production]

0

5

10

15

20

25

12/ 99 12/ 00 12/ 01 12/ 02 12/ 03 12/ 04 12/ 05 12/ 06 12/ 07 12/ 08 12/ 09 12/ 10 12/ 11 12/ 12 12/ 13

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(bcf

/d)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Rig Count

Historical Production Forecasted Production Rig Count

Production History

Shales – Fueling The Engine Of Growth

Rig Count

Production Forecast

17

Shale gas 12/08

□ Production = 8 bcf/d (12% of US)

□ Rig Count = 357 rigs (18% of US)

Shale gas 12/13

□ Production = 22 bcf/d (35% of US)

□ Rig Count = 614 rigs (41% of US)

Shale Basin 12/08a 7/09e 12/13e

Barnett 5.0 4.7 5.5

Woodford 0.9 0.9 1.5

Fayetteville 1.3 1.5 2.8

Haynesville 0.2 1.0 6.3

Marcellus 0.0 0.2 4.4

Eagle Ford 0.0 0.0 0.7

Antrim 0.4 0.4 0.3

Total 7.8 8.7 21.5

Daily Gas Volumes, bcf/d

The only thing better than one crawfish dinner is five crawfish dinners. Coach Red Beaulieu – The Waterboy

Page 18: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

U.S. Gas Supply Growth (TPH & Non-TPH E&P Companies)

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E

% G

row

th

U.S. Supply TPH Coverage Universe Non-TPH E&P Companies

E&P Sector Implications: TPH & Non-TPH E&P Companies

18

Production from the TPH coverage universe has consistently outpaced

the industry over the last five years (+15%)

Expect trend to expand in 2010 because of our bias towards shale-

oriented E&Ps in our research coverage

TPH Coverage

□ 2009E Production Growth: 8%

□ 2010E Production Growth: 7%

Non-TPH Universe

□ 2009E Production Decline: -3%

□ 2010E Production Decline: -13%

TPH Coverage

All Companies

Non-TPH Companies

Source: Production History = HPDI and company data, Forecast = TPH Estimates•Includes gas production from E&P segment of midstream coverage

•Non-TPH Coverage includes other public and private E&P companies

Annual Supply Growth

Total US TPH Coverage Non-TPH Coverage Delta

TPH Coverage* ∆ change ∆ change ∆ change ∆ change

Year % total %/yr %/yr %/yr TPH vs Non-TPH

2005A 20% -3% 3% -5% 8%2006A 22% 2% 17% -1% 18%2007A 26% 4% 19% 0% 19%2008A 29% 3% 15% -1% 16%2009E 31% 0% 8% -3% 10%2010E 35% -7% 7% -13% 19%

Page 19: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

19

The US Recovery Will Not Look The Same

Source: RigData, TPH19

2359 1171 1476

Peak '08 Current Long Term

Lower 48 Onshore Rigcount

476 213 205

Peak '08 Current Long Term

Mid-Continent

883 426 556

Peak '08 Current Long Term

TX/LA/Gulf Coast372 208 241

Peak '08 Current Long Term

W.Coast / NM / W.TX

480 185 233

Peak '08 Current Long Term

Rockies

148 139 241

Peak '08 Current Long Term

Appalachia

Page 20: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

Regional Production

20

Grouped basins together to examine regional supply dynamics.

Helped to insure that we were not modeling production that could not be physically delivered.

Note: South Region includes GOM

Page 21: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Wellhead Supply Forecast[Central Region]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

12/ 99 12/ 00 12/ 01 12/ 02 12/ 03 12/ 04 12/ 05 12/ 06 12/ 07 12/ 08 12/ 09 12/ 10 12/ 11 12/ 12 12/ 13

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(bcf

/d)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Rig Count

Historical Production Forecasted Production Rig Count

Production History

Regional Breakdown: Central Region

Rig Count

Production Forecast

21

Minimal production growth in ’08 while rig count increased 12%

Significant 2010 volume declines (-1.6 bcf/d annual average)

Cana Woodford / Granite Wash horizontal plays = Wild Cards…but unlikely to arrest regional decline

Source: Rig Count = Rig Data Onshore/Baker Hughes Offshore, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas. Rig count is total rig count gas/oil and onshore/offshore, as applicable.

Page 22: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Wellhead Supply Forecast[South Region]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

12/ 99 12/ 00 12/ 01 12/ 02 12/ 03 12/ 04 12/ 05 12/ 06 12/ 07 12/ 08 12/ 09 12/ 10 12/ 11 12/ 12 12/ 13

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(bcf

/d)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Rig Count

Historical Production Forecasted Production Rig Count

Production History

Regional Breakdown: South Region

Rig Count

Production Forecast

22

South region includes rollup of:

□ Shales: Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville, Woodford, Eagle Ford

□ Legacy: South Texas, East Texas, Arkoma North Louisiana, Gulf Coast

□ Offshore: GOM Shelf and Deepwater

Historically, peak production ~30 bcf/d. We forecast region growing to 32 bcf/d by 2013

Source: Rig Count = Rig Data Onshore/Baker Hughes Offshore, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas. Rig count is total rig count gas/oil and onshore/offshore, as applicable.

Page 23: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Wellhead Supply Forecast[Rockies Region]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

12/ 99 12/ 00 12/ 01 12/ 02 12/ 03 12/ 04 12/ 05 12/ 06 12/ 07 12/ 08 12/ 09 12/ 10 12/ 11 12/ 12 12/ 13

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(bcf

/d)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Rig Count

Historical Production Forecasted Production Rig Count

Production History

Regional Breakdown: Rockies Region

Rig Count

Production Forecast

23

Production has grown significantly since 1999 (~6 bcf/d)

2008 rig count (+13%) outpaced production growth (+8%)

No need to ramp activity from 2010-2013

2% per year long-term decline

Source: Rig Count = Rig Data Onshore/Baker Hughes Offshore, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas. Rig count is total rig count gas/oil and onshore/offshore, as applicable.

Page 24: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

US Wellhead Supply Forecast[East Region]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

12/ 99 12/ 00 12/ 01 12/ 02 12/ 03 12/ 04 12/ 05 12/ 06 12/ 07 12/ 08 12/ 09 12/ 10 12/ 11 12/ 12 12/ 13

Nat

ural

Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(bcf

/d)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Rig Count

Historical Production Forecasted Production Rig Count

Production History

Regional Breakdown: East Region

Rig Count

Production Forecast

24

East region includes rollup of Marcellus, Appalachia conventional

Marcellus ramp from ~0.2 bcf/d to 4.4 bcf/d by 2013

3 bcf/day of East Region supply growth more than offsets Rockies 1.6bcf/day decline

Source: Rig Count = Rig Data Onshore/Baker Hughes Offshore, Production History = HPDI and EIA, Forecast = TPH Estimates

Note: Wellhead production is wet gas. Rig count is total rig count gas/oil and onshore/offshore, as applicable.

Page 25: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

Onshore Production – Is Declining

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Ons

hore

Gas

Pro

ducti

on, b

cf/d

ay

Declining is happening...NOW!

Page 26: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

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Revenge Of the Nerds! Horizontal Drilling□ Proper Azimuth□ Optimum Length

Completion – Hydraulic Fracture…can’t boilerplate□ Multiple Stages, Simultaneous Fracturing□ Slickwater vs. Gelled Fracs□ Regionally Specific□ Surfactant, 100 mesh, proppant transport etc.

Well Spacing - will drive ultimate recovery□ Depends on Completions and Reservoir□ Fracture Mapping with Micro-seismic helps

Reservoir Modeling difficult□ Natural fracture spacing/orientation□ Isotherm, gas-in-place, free gas porosity

“No one will really be free until nerd persecution ends.”

Gilbert – Revenge of the Nerds

Page 27: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

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Wild CardsShale Performance

Officer and a Gentleman

□ “I got nowhere else to go”

Gas Macro Variables

□ LNG

□ Renewables

□ Canada Imports

□ Demand

High-Grading/Well efficiency

Shut-Ins/Uncompleted Wells

Infrastructure Build-Out

Page 28: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

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Natural Gas

Ample gas supply in almost any demand scenario – long term

□ Shale gas

1 bcf/day net demand growth assumed

Shale, Shale and more Shale

Fewer rigs required (~1500)

Lower equilibrium natural gas price

□ $7.50/ mcf in 2010 – lower rig count matters

□ $6.50/mcf in 2011 +

Implications for all energy subsectors/stocks

Page 29: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

Expect “Have’s” and “Have Not’s” to emerge

Shale, Shale and more Shale

2010 = strong; 2011= outlook dims

Shale envy = consolidation

Good trade; Mediocre Investment

Focus on Being/Owning a “Have”

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North American Natural Gas Implications

Page 30: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

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Don’t Believe $7.5/mcf gas in 2010?

Anything is Possible…Scoreboard!Texas A&M 52…Texas Tech 30

Yeeeeesssssssssssssss! Napoleon Dynamite

Page 31: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

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Disclaimer

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. In addition, we mutually agree that, subject to applicable law, you (and your employees, representatives and other agents) may disclose any aspects of any potential transaction or structure described herein that are necessary to support any U.S. federal income tax benefits, and all materials of any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) related to those benefits, with no limitations imposed by Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

The information contained herein is confidential (except for information relating to United States tax issues) and may not be reproduced in whole or in part.

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. assumes no responsibility for independent verification of third-party information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance (including estimates of potential cost savings and synergies) prepared by, reviewed or discussed with the managements of your company and/ or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, we have assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such managements (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and the affairs of your company and Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. materials.

Under no circumstances is this presentation to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. Prior to making any trade, you should discuss with your professional tax, accounting, or regulatory advisers how such particular trade(s) affect you. This brief statement does not disclose all of the risks and other significant aspects of entering into any particular transaction.

Page 32: SIPES/HAPL Luncheon Houston, TX David Heikkinen dheikkinen@tudorpickering.com 713-333-2975 *Disclosures on page 31* November 19, 2009

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RESEARCH

Oil ServiceDan [email protected]

Jeff [email protected]

Joe [email protected]

Max [email protected]

E&PDavid [email protected]

Mike [email protected]

Brian [email protected]

Brad [email protected]

MacroDave [email protected]

Gas/PowerBecca [email protected]

Brandon [email protected]

Jessica [email protected]

MLPAnson [email protected]

TRADING 800.507.2400SALES

Houston

PK [email protected]

Keen Butcher

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Mike [email protected]

Clay Coneley713-333-2979

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Mike [email protected]

Leah MacDougal

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Josh [email protected]

Paige Penchas713.333.2969

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Michael du Vigneaud

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Scott McGarvey

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Seth [email protected]

Matt [email protected]

Denver

Chuck [email protected]

Jason Foxen

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Win [email protected]