Simulation of the Late Maunder Minimum with global and regional climate models

Hans von Storch, Beate MüllerGKSS Research Center

MUSCAD workshop, 20-21 October 203, Uppsala

Simulation with ECHO-G (ECHAM4/HOPE-G)

- 500 years (Columbus-run), and - 1000 years (Erik run)

forced with

- variable solar output- volcanic aerosol load- GHG concentrations

Simulated global 1675-1710 temperature anomaly

deMenocal et al.

(2000)

Ice conditions off Iceland (Koch, 1945)

Information provided by

Fidel González-Rouco andSimon Tett

HadCM3

ECHO-G

differences relative to the 1550-1800 average;25-year running averages.

Late Maunder Minimum

Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710

Late Maunder Minimum

Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710

Analysis of Columbus run, only.

Baltic Sea ice winter index after Koslowski (1998)

grey: raw index, red: 5 year mean, blue:20 year mean

Mean winter temperatures in TallinMean winter temperatures in Tallin as reconstructed by Tarand & Nordli, 2001as reconstructed by Tarand & Nordli, 2001

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Tem

pera

tur [

°C]

Tarand & Nordli Gauß Filter (10 Jahre)

LMM

The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM) is the coldest phase of the so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ with marked climatic variability over wide parts of Europe.

Temperature conditions in Switzerland according to Pfister‘s classification (1999).

1675-1710vs. 1550-1800

Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.

1675-1710vs. 1550-1800

Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.

Late Maunder Minimum

Model-based reconstuction

LMM – reference period, winter

Erik

Columbus

Eduardo Zorita, pers. comm.

LMM1 1671-1684 NAO- and Cooling

LMM2 1685-1708 NAO+ and Warming

Irene Fischer-Bruns, pers. comm.

gridding:

Spatial: 0.5° x 0.5°Temporal: 6 h

REMO Model AreaREMO Model Area

ECHO-G griddingECHO-G gridding

3

8

5

4

6

1

9

2

11

10

7N

EW

S

Eisbedeckungsgrad [%]3. März 1692

0 - 1010 - 2020 - 3030 - 4040 - 5050 - 6060 - 7070 - 8080 - 9090 - 100

0 200 400 600

Kilometers

Regionalized sea ice dataRegionalized sea ice data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

650 750 850 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 1450 1550 1650 1750 1850 1950

forest farmland greenland infrastructure water

Main land use types in Germany from 7th centuryMain land use types in Germany from 7th century

area

[%

]

DifferencesDifferences

reconstructed data - REMO reconstructed data - ECHO

January

DifferencesDifferences

reconstructed data - REMO reconstructed data - ECHO

July

Winter

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

5 10 15 20 25 30

Ano

mal

ie [K

]

REMO Luterbacher

Frühling

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

5 10 15 20 25 30

Anom

alie

[K]

Sommer

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

5 10 15 20 25 30

Anom

alie

[K]

Herbst

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

5 10 15 20 25 30

Anom

alie

[K]

REMO und Luterbacher

Seasonal temperature anomalies in Seasonal temperature anomalies in areas with skill of reconstruction > 0.5areas with skill of reconstruction > 0.5

WinterWinter

HerbstHerbst

FrühlingFrühling

SommerSommer

Temperaturanomalie des LMM Temperaturanomalie des LMM für Zentral-Englandfür Zentral-England

WinterWinter

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

5 10 15 20 25 30

Anom

alie

[K]

Manley REMO Luterbacher

256

260

264

268

272

5 10 15 20 25 30

Tem

pera

tur [

K]

LMM Tarand&Nordlivorind. P. Tarand&NordliLMM REMONP REMO

Winterliche Mitteltemperatur und Anomalie des Winterliche Mitteltemperatur und Anomalie des LMMLMM

für den Tallinner Hafenfür den Tallinner Hafen

MittelMittel

Conclusions• Two multi-century simulations concluded. Natural forcing plus GHGs. Work done by a European consortium.

• Model simulations are consistent.

• Tools for dynamical downscaling for the Baltic catchment area developed.

• Models simulates significant winter cooling during LMM; similar event in HadCM3.

• Similarity to observed features, but variations much stronger than empirical reconstructions by Mann and others.

• LMM winter cooling is global event. Cooling in Europe is just a manifestation, and not mainly related to anomalous easterlies in Northern Europe.