simulation innovation ii: a three phase model of innovation roger smith sparta inc....
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Simulation Innovation II: A Three Phase Model of Innovation
Roger SmithSPARTA Inc.
Orlando, Florida August 2-5, 2005http://www.afams.af.mil/conn_conf/
© Copyright 2005, Roger Smith
Simulation Innovation
1947 1985 2005
Innovation & New Technology Displace Established Technology & Practitioners
Two Models of Innovation
Disruptive Innovation: Established companies lose their market share to innovative new entrants in the field.
The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton Christensen (Harvard)
3-Phase Innovation: The rate of major innovation in products and services follows a 3-Phase pattern over time.
Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, James Utterback (MIT)
Fluid Phase
Explosion of different designs, Era of radical product innovation
TransitionalPhase
Standardization of design, Emergence of process innovation
Specific Phase
Contraction of competitors, Era of incremental innovation
Rate of Major Innovation
time(Utterback, 1996)
Utterback’s 3-Phases of Innovation
Product Innovation
Process Innovation
Lowest CostDominant Design
Fluid Phase
Explosion of different designs, Era of radical product innovation
TransitionalPhase
Standardization of design, Emergence of process innovation
Specific Phase
Contraction of competitors, Era of incremental innovation
Product Innovation
Process Innovation
Rate of Major Innovation
time(Utterback, 1996)
Simulation Innovation Examples
SIMNETSAF’sCBS CCTT
DISModSAFALSP
Dominant DesignLVC
DIS 2.0.4ALSP
IEEE 1278 (DIS)IEEE 1516 (HLA)
CTIATENA
System Mods
Sim Center & Exercise Support
Fluid Phase TransitionalPhase
Specific Phase
Product Innovation
Rate of Major Innovation
time
Unsuccessful Path: Stay The Course
Successful Path: Jump Industries
Board Wargaming
Computer Simulation
Computer Games
Expertise
Expertise
Expertise
Fluid: R&D, New Products
Expertise
Expertise
Expertise
Transitional: Mass Production
Expertise
Expertise
Expertise
Specific: Services
Cellphone,Handheld,Web-based
Fluid Phase
Product Innovation
Process Innovation
Rate of Major Innovation
time
TransitionalPhase
Specific Phase
(1) Open with rapid and prolific innovation
(3) Push standards and build community around yours
(4) Focus on low-cost products and services
Successful Path: Skate the Top
(2) Create and own the dominant design
DominantDesign
LowestCost
Every Organization Will Not Survive
85%Stay the Course
10%Jump Industries
5%Skate the Top
Recommendations
Flexible Change the company to follow the market Fluid >> Transitional >> Specific
Specialized Jump across domains to grow specific
expertise Retain your specialized expertise
Immovable Stay the Course Until Extinction Most companies follow this path
References Utterback, J. (1996). Mastering the Dynamics
of Innovation. Harvard Business School Press. Christensen, C. (1997). The Innovator’s
Dilemma: When new technologies cause great firms to fail. Harvard Business School Press.
Christensen, C. & Raynor, M. (2003). The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and sustaining successful growth. Harvard Business School Press.