share and its policy lessons from international comparisons
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SHARE and its Policy Lessons from International Comparisons. Axel Börsch-Supan Coordinator SHARE Israel Van Leer Institute, Jerusalem, 17 October 2012. International comparisons. How do public policies work ? D o they reach their intended aims ? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SHARE and its Policy Lessons from
International Comparisons
Axel Börsch-SupanCoordinator
SHARE IsraelVan Leer Institute, Jerusalem, 17 October 2012
Look over the fence and learn from others Benchmarking US vs. Europe & Israel
How do public policies work? Do they reach their intended aims?
Do they avoid unintended side-effects?
– macro level– micro level
– macro level– micro level
Cross-national variation of policies
Cross-national data:
SHARE
International comparisons
Example 1: Does spending for the old crowd out spending for the young? (Börsch-Supan and Reil-Held)
Figure 11: Relative Generosity to the Elderly vs. the Young (Expenditure per capita devoted to the elderly versus per capita spending devoted to the young, Euro PPP)
EU90
DK90
DE90
GR90
ES90
FR90
IE90
IT90
NL90AT90
PT90
UK90
EU95
DK95
DE95
GR95
ES95
FR95
IE95
IT95
NL95AT95
PT95
FI95SW95
UK95
EU00
BE00
DK00
DE00
GR00ES00
FR00
IE00
IT00
NL00
AT00
PT00
FI00SW00
UK00
EU03
BE03
DK03
DE03
GR03ES03
FR03IE03
IT03
NL03
AT03
PT03
FI03SW03
UK03
050
010
0015
0020
00yo
ung
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000old
IT
DK
FR
EUDE
No convincing relation to age structure of country!
Per capita expenditure dedicated to the elderlyPer
cap
ita e
xpen
ditu
re d
edic
ated
to th
e yo
ung
Compare time trend by country
Example 2: The effect of health care spending on health status(Hendrik Jürges)
● US
15 16 17
Example 3: Is retirement really bliss? Mental retirement : early retirement and cognition(Adam, Bonsang, Perelman et al. 2007; Rohwedder and Willis 2010)
Example 4: The lump of labor fallacy(Börsch-Supan with OECD employment data)
R2 = 0,1007
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 5 10 15
SpainNetherlands
Unemployment rate
Sha
re o
f 60-
64 y
ear
old
mal
es a
lread
y re
tired
Japan
USA Sweden
FranceBelgium
Italy
CanadaGermany
UK
Share of early retireesamong males 60-64 (in %)
Unemployment rate (in %)
The old should make place…
…for the young!
Causality issues in analyses based on cross-national data
Macro evidence needs micro foundation: usually many other influential variables aggregates almost always simultaneously determined
Gold standard: laboratory experiments in natural sciences usually not an option for policy evaluation replace by “historical (natural) experiments”
Even in micro data: selectivity and reverse causality time as strongest instrument: longitudinal panel data policy changes (“regression discontinuity designs”)
Design of SHARE
PLCZ
IEEE
PT SI HU
SE
DK
DE
CH
FR
SP IT
GR
BENLLU
ATWave 4 participation (2010):plus EE, LU, HU, SI, PT: now 20 countries
Wave 1 participation (2004):11 countries: NL, DE, AT, DK, BE, FR, CH, SP, IT, GR, SE (+UK)Waves 2 and 3 (2006 and 08):plus CZ, PL, IE, IL: 15 countries
IL
UK
KoreaJapanChina
India
SHARELAND
62,000 resps, 130,000 i‘views
Mexico, Brazil, Argentina
Europe as a Laboratoryin a global network
Generic survey instrumentto conduct Computer AssistedPersonal Interviews (CAPI)
Internet basedtranslation tool (LMU)
Online overviewof country specifics
Minimize artifacts:Ex-ante harmonization
Objective measures of health help distinguishing actual differences in health from different response styles to extract genuine policy effects
Source: Jürges, 2006
Minimize artifacts:Performance measures and biomarkers
Result: Reporting styles of general health status indicators
Mental retirement: Rohwedder and Willis
Use pension policies as instruments to isolate causal direction
Mental retirement
Early retirement: bliss or detriment? Very controversial since causality is everything:
health early retirement early retirement health
Börsch-Supan and Jürges 2006: Life satisfaction after early retirement Adam, Bonsang, Perelman et al. 2007: Depreciation of cognitive
reserve after early retirement Coe, Lindeboom (et al.) 2008+: Does early retirement kill? Zweimüller et al 2010: Plant closures and mortality Rohwedder and Willis 2010: Mental retirement Bonsang, Perelman et al. 2010: Cognitive functioning Coe, Gaudecker, Lindeboom & Maurer 2012: Early retirement and
cognition Fabrizio Mazzoni 2013: Cognitive functioning
Cross-cutting policy results Guglielmo Weber: Parental status and Retirement income
Importance of intergenerational linkages: Books in parental home increase early earnings. Effects persists onto later earnings.
Mathis Schröder: Health and EmploymentExperience of redundancy reduces health at retirement. Unemployment benefits appear to reduce this effect.
Agar Brugiavini: Work and Retirement IGaps in employment history reduce retirement income. Maternity benefits first increases female LFP, thus retirement income, but U-shape pattern
Johannes Siegrist/Morten Wahrendorf: Work and Retirement IIWork quality improves health at retirement. Active labour market policies are associated with higher work quality and thus better health
Nicolas Sirven: Health Care Utilisation in EuropeDoctor density helps to improve preventive care, positive effects on health at retirement. Could reduce health disparities across Europe.
Radim Bohacek/Michal Myck: Histories of WarStrong effects of persecution on later-life health and income situation
14
Figure 6: Labor Force Participation of youth, young and elderly males
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
year
parti
cipa
tion
rate
lfpm25-54
lfpm55-59
lfpm20-24
lfpm60-64
lfpm15-19
Source: German Mikrozensus
Shocks to the system: 1972, 1984 and 1997
Exploit “policy experiments”: Pension policy changes and youth employ. (Börsch-Supan/Schnabel)
Use pension policy discontinuities to show the fallacy in the „lump of labor“
Further aims: The Crisis
16
….there is still a lot more to happen,
and to find out!
e.g., on the long-term effects of the crisis and effectiveness of policy interventions (old age poverty, health, labor market participation,…)
especially in countries with funding problems
The SubPrime-Financial-PublicDebt-Euro-Crisis
17
….there is still a lot more to happen,
and to find out!
e.g., on the long-term effects of the crisis and effectiveness of policy interventions (old age poverty, health, labor market participation,…)
especially in countries with funding problems
Wave 5-6-7: Scientific aims
Poverty and social exclusion Biomarker collection in all countries,
central laboratory (SDU in DK) Well-being (Sarkozy Commission):
- time use/day reconstruction method - mixed mode: paper/telefone/Internet
Life histories revisited Cognition, productivity and retirement
Conclusions International comparisons very powerful in
detecting, isolating and measuring policy effects
Substantial harmonization efforts necessary to avoid spurious effects through differences in language, institutions, interpretation, and methods
„Historical experiments“ greatly help in identification. Requires genuine panel data, preferably with retrotspecive dimension:
SHARELIFE in connection with administrative records Again: requires knowledge of history
and how the country-specificinstitutions changed
Israel‘s contribution: history, migration, policy experiments
19
Use
!