SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop

CWHxm

(21% of District)

CWHxm – Sayward Forest

CWHxm Sayward Forest – CURRENT BEC

CWHxm Bookend Climate Scenarios

CWHxm Sayward Forest – PCM-B1 2050

CWHxm– PCM-B1 2050

CDFmm temp

CWHdmprecip

mean annual temperature 8.4 9.4 0.9 mean warmest month temperature 16.4 17.5 1.1 mean coldest month temperature 1.4 3.1 1.7 extreme minimum temperature (18.2) (14.5) 3.7 Continentality (MWMT - MCMT) 15.0 14.4 -4.1%frost free period 172.9 191.6 10.8%number of frost free days 278.2 303.0 8.9%degree-days above 18 degrees C 45.5 89.5 44.0degree-days below 0 degrees C 62.6 27.3 -35.3mean annual precipitation 1,798.5 1,886.5 4.9%mean annual summer precipitation 340.1 341.8 0.5%precipitation as snow 149.4 107.3 -28.2%Summer heat:moisture index 52.0 55.2 6.2%Annual heat:moisture index 10.8 10.8 0.0%

ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES Now 2050 change

CWHxm– Sayward Forest – HAD-A1FI 2050

CWHxm– HAD-A1F1 2050

CWHxm – HAD-A1F1 2050

CDFmm+temp

CWHmmPrecip

mean annual temperature 8.4 10.9 2.5 mean warmest month temperature 16.4 19.8 3.4 mean coldest month temperature 1.4 3.0 1.6 extreme minimum temperature (18.2) (14.4) 3.7 Continentality (MWMT - MCMT) 15.0 16.8 11.9%frost free period 172.9 234.3 35.5%number of frost free days 278.2 323.4 16.2%degree-days above 18 degrees C 45.5 205.8 160.3degree-days below 0 degrees C 62.6 29.4 -33.2mean annual precipitation 1,798.5 2,044.5 13.7%mean annual summer precipitation 340.1 302.6 -11.0%precipitation as snow 149.4 85.0 -43.1%Summer heat:moisture index 52.0 70.8 36.2%Annual heat:moisture index 10.8 10.8 -0.4%

2050 changeANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES Now

CWHxm– HAD-A1F1 2050

Summer heat: moisture index

Just below some dry IDF subzones

mean annual temperature 8.4 10.9 2.5 mean warmest month temperature 16.4 19.8 3.4 mean coldest month temperature 1.4 3.0 1.6 extreme minimum temperature (18.2) (14.4) 3.7 Continentality (MWMT - MCMT) 15.0 16.8 11.9%frost free period 172.9 234.3 35.5%number of frost free days 278.2 323.4 16.2%degree-days above 18 degrees C 45.5 205.8 160.3degree-days below 0 degrees C 62.6 29.4 -33.2mean annual precipitation 1,798.5 2,044.5 13.7%mean annual summer precipitation 340.1 302.6 -11.0%precipitation as snow 149.4 85.0 -43.1%Summer heat:moisture index 52.0 70.8 36.2%Annual heat:moisture index 10.8 10.8 -0.4%

2050 changeANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES Now

CONSIDER CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate

CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS - 2050 (PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:

Sensitivity ClassesLow – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate change.Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable losses and

or secondary risks (fire etc.).High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high secondary

risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely – Armillaria / D-fir bark beetle

Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high – like mtn pine beetle.

Opportunity ClassesNil – No opportunity to enhance growth.Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.Significant – significant growth enhancement

likely.

Species Sensitivity Class

Opp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought s stress/

(mostly Hadley Model)

Douglas-fir Low (if anything – may be hit by fires possibly foliar disease)

Signif Will likely grow better (larger faster)

More resilient to drier climates

Better competitor

Minor losses to Doug-fir Beetle

Likely not lots of difference in disease levels (foliar diseases may be a problem – swiss needle cast)

Fire – stands not that susceptible and drought increase may not be great enough.

CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS - 2050 (PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Sens.

ClassOpp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Hemlock Mod (High closer to 2080)

Will be hit by drought stress in mature stands at all ages – bad water managers.

The only good Hw is a dead Hw here.

Minor added impacts from insects.

Hw that hangs in will be of marginal quality or confined to moist sites only.

Cw Low Will hang in on wet sites.

Will decline on the mesic and drier sites – well drained soils where summer drought more of an issue.

May do better than Hw – because it does in the CDF.

Warmer aspects – likely more powder worm – not clear if heat or moisture that will be the issue.

CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS - 2050 (PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Sens.

ClassOpp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Dr Low Minor Better growth on moister sites – more heat and no drought – hygrotopes of 4 or more.

Zonal and drier sites will have poorer growth.

Hydrologic changes in watersheds – may affect location and extent of riparian ecosystems – could impact alder - perhaps more an issue in wetter subzones.

Could contract some of the wetter site series, but generally richer, more biologically active sites if moist enough.

If more outflows - will have impacts on it – redheart impacts on quality – so question will be what will happen to outflows – now there is not a problem (likely minor issue).

Insects and disease – may increase but unclear.

CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS - 2050 (PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Sens.

ClassOpp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Bg Mod- High

Nil Dry and mesic sites will seem signifcant mortality – Fir engraver beetle (with combination with drought) – starting now.

Even problems on moist rich sites now.

Adelgid problems – chronic on Bg. Can cause mortality over time. It does better on drought stressed trees – so even worse over time.

CWHxm Ecologically Suitable Regen – Now and Future

MESIC SITE DISCUSSION : 1. What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /

disease?) 2. What are the opportunities – where / when?3. What are the outstanding questions?

% of orig area Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present CWHxm (ha) 305,346 24 31 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm2 46.0 24 31 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHdm 14.0 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm1 34.0 24 31

HAD-A1F1 2050

CWHxm1 80.0 24 31 7,42 a 18 a b b

Green PrimaryYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHxm This subzone appears to have a very similar climate envelope over most of its range. Smaller proportions are hotter versions of the xm (<10%, lower elevations). Species suitability appears not to change.

Footnotes7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites18 restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region24 suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit31 risk of white pine blister rust42 restricted to fresh soil moisture regimesa productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration optionb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility

MESIC SITES

PCM-B1 2050

CWHxm Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities

Added Comments:• Doug-fir – a big opportunity for regeneration – less frost and snow. Summer drought

may not be an issue – can plant in January-Feb without late winters (could take trees from nursery put in shed for a few days and plant on site – like in Oregon).• So could handle the summer droughts – trees get established and will reduce

planting costs and be more efficient.• There is an increased opp for more estab of Dr– provides more flexibilty into the future

with shorter rotations.• Cw is currently limited right now with deer browse – so tough to increase over time.• Pw – likely will have some opportunities to increase over time – rust-resistant

provenances. Cost for seed is high.• Hw – just say no (may be acceptable on the wetter site units) – note that Hw natural

regen is way down currently in the xm1, while Fd nat regen is up (may be some chances for more natural Fd over time).

• Maple- may be opportunities to help increase diversity and provide forage for elk. Selective cutting of coppice shoots has been done in the past – note sure how stable? Or if infection will come in? May be opportunities for milling for some products in the future.

Mesic Sites

Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present CWHxm (ha) 305,346 24 31 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm2 46.0 24 31 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHdm 14.0 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm1 34.0 24 31

CWHxm1 80.0 24 31 7,42 a 18 a b b

Green PrimaryYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHxm This subzone appears to have a very similar climate envelope over most of its range. Smaller proportions are hotter versions of the xm (<10%, lower elevations). Species suitability appears not to change.

Footnotes7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites18 restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region24 suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit31 risk of white pine blister rust42 restricted to fresh soil moisture regimesa productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration optionb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHxm– Sayward Forest – PCM-B1 2080

CWHxm1

CWHxm1

CWHdm

CWHxm1

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHmm1

CWHxm1 82%

CWHdm 10%

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHxm– Sayward Forest – HAD-A1F1 2080

CWHxm-hot

CWHxm-hot

CDFmm

-hot (

+)

CWHxm1

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHmm1

CWHxm-hot 67%

CWHxm1 21%

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHxm– Sayward Forest – HAD-A1F1 2080

CWHxm-hot

CWHxm-hot

CDFmm

-hot (

+)

CWHxm1 Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHmm1

CWHxm-hot 67%

CWHxm1 21%