severe weather survey analysis 2011-2012
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Severe Weather Survey Analysis 2011-2012. Dr. Laura Myers Ms. Ashley Loftin Mississippi State University Social Science Research Center. Severe Weather Survey. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Managed by UT-Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy – Supporting the Department of Homeland Security
Severe Weather Survey Analysis 2011-2012
Dr. Laura Myers
Ms. Ashley Loftin
Mississippi State University
Social Science Research Center
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Managed by UT-Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy – Supporting the Department of Homeland Security
Severe Weather Survey
• The severe weather survey was developed to assess perceptions of severe weather events and the warning process primarily in Mississippi and the surrounding regions.
• This analysis was conducted as part of the regional emergency management project, funded by SERRI and the Department of Homeland Security.
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Severe Weather Survey
• The results of this analysis are for use by regional emergency planning stakeholders, including…– The National Weather Service– Emergency managers– Weather professionals– The private sector– First responder agencies– Volunteer organizations
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Severe Weather Survey
• The survey was disseminated electronically and via hard copy to residents in these areas through local emergency managers, the media, and the weather enterprise.
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Severe Weather Survey
• The survey was initiated in mid-November 2011 and closed in mid-January 2012.
• The final number of respondents with complete surveys was 1,810.
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The Study Population
• The majority of respondents to the survey are from Mississippi (43%-995 respondents.)
• Over 20% of respondents are from Alabama (525 respondents) and 13% are from Tennessee (290 respondents).
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Demographics of Study Population
• Both males (58%) and females (42%) responded to the survey in Mississippi.
• Males were much more likely than females to respond in Alabama (73%) and Tennessee (72%).
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Age Distribution
• The age distribution of respondents was normal in all three states.
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The Weather Aware Respondents
• As is typical with weather perception research, most respondents were more likely to..– be Caucasian– have at least some college education– and earn moderate to high incomes.
• It is the weather aware populations that are more willing to share their perceptions on weather.
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Experience with Damaging Weather
• Over 90 percent of the respondents in each of the three states had experienced some level of damage from severe weather.
• Over 40% in each state had experienced either minor or major tornado damage.
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Structural Protection
• About 75% of the respondents in each state live in a wood frame home.
• The rest of the respondents live in manufactured homes, apartments, or hotels.
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What is a tornado watch?
• Almost all respondents correctly identified a tornado watch correctly.
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Receiving Weather Warnings
• Mississippi respondents are more likely to use television as their primary method of receiving weather warnings, while Alabama is more likely to use NOAA weather radio.
• Tennessee respondents are equally likely to use both.
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Receiving Weather Warnings
• There appears to be little reliance on cell phones or sirens as a primary method to receive warnings.
• The most effective method for respondents is the NOAA weather radio.
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First Response to a Tornado Warning
• MS respondents are more likely to take immediate cover than respondents in AL and TN.
• AL and TN respondents are more likely to seek a second source of information or wait to hear from a local source
• They are putting themselves at more risk because they are cutting down their protective action time.
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Seriousness of Tornado Warnings After the Extreme 2010-2011 Season
• MS respondents were more likely to take warnings more seriously after the 2010-2011 extreme weather, followed by AL respondents.
• About 40% of TN respondents did not take warnings any more seriously than before.
• MS and AL residents were more likely to have experienced severe weather during the 2010-2011 season.
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Serious Weather Warning Terminology
• Enhancing the seriousness of warning terminology appears to make a difference for respondents.
• Such serious terminology cause over 50% to prepare and monitor more.
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Where do you shelter?
• Nearly three quarters of the respondents choose an interior room for their shelter.
• While a personal storm shelter is the better choice, only about 10% of respondents choose that option.
• This is likely due to cost and also perceived risk.
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Weather Alert Messages
• Message content options were provided to determine which content options led to seeking shelter immediately.
• Content most likely to result in seeking immediate shelter :
• National Weather Service meteorologists are tracking a confirmed tornado near your location.
• Trained weather spotters report a tornado near your location.
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Weather Alert Message with Wind Speed
• The increase from 60 mph to 80 mph wind speed seems to make the difference in when people start to seek shelter immediately.
• There appears to be no real difference in the use of the term “tornado” versus “strong tornado.”
• Both terms result in people seeking shelter immediately.
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False Alarms
• Change in behavior from false alarms from tornado warnings appears minimal.
• Over two thirds will not change their behaviors after false alarms.
• About 20% are less likely to seek shelter after false alarms.
• It is of concern that almost a quarter of respondents would be less likely to seek shelter.
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Conditions that protect you from tornadoes?
• Respondents generally do not believe in the myths associated with conditions that protect from tornadoes.
• Most respondents indicated that any place can be hit by tornadoes.
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Number of Warnings Per Year
• Actually a small number of warnings per location each year.
• Percentages within each state show a wide variation in perceived number of warnings.
• Reason for wide variation is probably due to hearing warnings for surrounding locations and recalling those as applying to the person’s locale.
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Rely on Sirens?
• Less than half of the respondents rely on sirens.
• The primary problems are that people cannot hear them and they are not location specific.
• Because sirens are for outdoor use, people may not be aware that sirens are not meant for indoor use.
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Length of Weather Warnings
• About two-thirds perceive weather warnings to be just the right length.
• Just over 20% perceive them to be too long.
• Only about 10% perceive them to be too brief.
• Any efforts to decrease length should be taken with caution and monitored closely.
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How to Warn and When to Warn
• NOAA weather radio and television are primary methods to receive weather warnings for most people in the study.
• Other methods suggested by respondents include more and better use of cell phone technology, especially text messaging.
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How to Warn and When to Warn
• Respondents note the need for greater specificity in the warnings.
• They want proximity to location in the warning.
• Many respondents felt the current methods used are useful and work very well.
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How to Warn and When to Warn
• Social media was also suggested, using Facebook and Twitter to convey warnings.
• Social media would be an avenue to pursue as nearly three-quarters of respondents use social media.
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How to Warn and When to Warn
• For siren use, suggestions were made to use different tones to mean different things.
• Some respondents suggest not telling them to shelter, just give location of tornado and the path.
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How to Warn and When to Warn
• It is suggested that at least 30 minutes of lead-time be given when possible.
• Several days of lead-time are useful when that information is available.
• Digital signs on the Interstate were suggested for those traveling the highways.
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How to Warn and When to Warn
• The polygon system is perceived as being confusing and useless.
• False alarms should be eliminated if possible.
• Alerting by phone at night would overcome the sleep issue.
• Graphic warning maps are especially helpful.
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How to Warn and When to Warn
• The public seems to want to know as soon as possible, not just when the tornadoes are confirmed.
• In regard to path, they want to know when it is at least 2 counties away.
• Some refer to the window effect, a time frame in which people should be aware.
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Conclusion
• Multiple sources of weather warnings.
• Lack of understanding by some of tools and warnings.– Polygon– Siren
• Content of warning message critical.
• Timing of message important.
• Proximity and path important.
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Conclusion
• False alarm issue needs to be addressed with caution.
• Warnings at night should be addressed
• Use of social media.
• Many tools and methods are effective.
• Lead time
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Conclusion
• Use of the analysis by the emergency planning network.– Warnings– Education of the public– Education of specific populations
• Vulnerable populations
• Transient/tourist populations
• The private sector
– Knowledge about what people do with weather warnings.
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Contact Information
• Dr. Laura Myers, Research Professor– Phone: (828) 243-2952– Email: [email protected]– Mail: PO Box 5287, MS State, MS 39762
• Ms. Ashley Loftin, Field Coordinator– Phone: (662) 436-0323– Email: [email protected]