severe solar activity/space weather and the global threat to electric grids john g. kappenman storm...
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Severe Solar Activity/Space Weather and the Global Threat to Electric Grids
John G. KappenmanStorm Analysis Consultants
A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic Storms have Continent-Wide &
Planetary Footprints
Geomagnetic Storms are disturbances in the Earth’s normally quiescent geomagnetic field caused by intense Solar activity
Intense Solar Activity
A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms
A rapidly changing geomagnetic field over large regions will induce Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (i.e. GIC a quasi-DC current) to
flow in the continental interconnected Electric Power Grids
Storm causes Geomagnetic Field Disturbances from Electrojet Current
that couple to Power Systems
Time 2:39-2:58 EST (7:39-7:58 UT)
March 13, 1989 – Storm 7:39UT
20 Minutes of Bad Space Weather
Time 2:39-2:58 EST (7:39-7:58 UT) Quebec Blackout in 92 Seconds at Intensity 0f ~480 nT/min
Reported Power System Events – March 13, 1989
Time 4:40-5:30 PM EST (21:40-22:30 UT)
March 13, 1989 – Storm 21:40UT
Time 16:03-17:30 EST (21:03-22:30 UT)Intensity over Mid-Atlantic Region
~300 nT/min
Reported Power System Events – March 13, 1989
765kV500kV345kV
US High-Voltage Transmission Network
European and Asian Continental Grids are of similar proportions
500 kV & 765 kV serve ~60% of US geographic territory and ~86% of US population
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Annual Electric Energy Usage
High Voltage Transmission Line Miles
Growth of US Transmission Grid & Electric Energy Usage
GIC Risk Factor – Growth of Transmission NetworkThe larger the Grid – the Larger the Antenna to cause GIC
Cycle 19
Cycle 22
1953 – First 345 kV Transmission Line
1964 – First 500 kV Transmission Line
1969 – First 765 kV Transmission Line
A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms
2 0 0 2 / 0 9 / 2 7 0 0 : 0 4 : 0 0 . 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 / 0 9 / 2 7 0 0 : 0 4 : 0 0 . 0 0 0
Areas of Probable Power System
Collapse
Blackouts of Unprecedented
Scale
GIC flow in transformers can cause Power Grid Blackouts & Permanent Grid Damage
A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms
GIC flow can also has potential to cause wide-spread catastrophic damage to key Power Grid Transformers
Causing Restoration Problems
Salem Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer Failure, March ‘89
InternalDamage due to one storm
These Key Assets may take a Year or More to Replace
Severe Geomagnetic Storm Scenario At-Risk 345kV, 500kV, & 765kV Transformers
Estimated that many large EHV Transformers would have sufficient GIC exposure to be At-Risk of Permanent Damage & Loss – Replacement could
extend into 4-10 years at current world production rates
Many Regions with High Damage Loss Estimated
Great Geomagnetic Storms US Electric Grid Vulnerability Trends and Preparedness
• Threat • New Awareness that Geomagnetic Storm Severity is 4 to 10
Times larger than previously understood – Past Metrics did not measure risks correctly for power industry
• Vulnerability • Power Grid infrastructures have experienced a “Design Creep”
over past few decades that have unknowingly escalated vulnerability to these threats – No Design Code Yet Exists
• Consequences • Power Supply is an essential scaffolding of modern society• All other Critical infrastructures will also collapse with long-term
loss of Electricity
• Risk – Events have catastrophic potential, the ability to take the lives of hundreds of people in one blow, or to shorten or cripple the lives of thousands or millions more, impact future generations of society
Great Geomagnetic Storms March 1989 Superstorm & May 1921 Storm Comparisons
Boundaries of Eastward Electrojet March 13, 1989
Position of Westward Electrojet
Great Geomagnetic Storms March 1989 Superstorm & May 1921 Storm Comparisons
Estimated Boundaries of Eastward Electrojet May 14-15, 1921
Larger & More Intense than March 1989
Great Geomagnetic Storms March 1989 Superstorm & May 1921 Storm Comparisons
Severe Geomagnetic Storms will have an even larger Planetary Footprint
Geomagnetic Storms – GIC & Conventional Wisdom
Conventional Wisdom•Only Power Grids at High Latitude Locations needed to worry about GIC•This did not explain Power Grid Problems Reported at Low-Latitudes
A New Class of GIC Risks•Large GICs are possible at Low-Latitudes and Have Caused Problems •Potential for Severe Storm to Cause Impacts to Developed Grids on a Planetary Scale
Southern Japan
South Africa
+/- 40o
Geomagnetic
Station 3 Gen Transformer 4 HV winding failure
Station 3 Gen. Transformer 5 evidence of overheating
Courtesy Eskom, Makhosi, T., G. Coetzee
Overview of South Africa EHV Transformer Failures due to Oct-Nov 2003 Geomagnetic Storms
Failures linked to Long Duration / Low Intensity GIC Exposure
Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer IncidentsWithin 25 months after the March 1989 Storm
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1. Salem2. Oyster Creek3. South Texas4. Shearon Harris5. Surry 16. Zion 27. WNP 28. Peach Bottom 39. D.C. Cook 110. Susquehanna11. Maine Yankee12. Nine-Mile
7
Latent Impacts of March 1989 Storm – Delayed Failures of Large Transformers at Nuclear Plants suspected across US
Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer Incidents
Nuclear Plants have some special vulnerability issues
•Severe Storms could initiate a Long Term Outage to large portions of the US electric grid – Including many Nuclear Power Plants all at the Same Time
•The Large Transformers in Nuclear Plants also have Higher Exposure to GIC, making them more Vulnerable to damage/failure
•Transformer Damage - Fire & Disruptive Failure of the Exposed Transformer - Collateral Damage to Vital Back-up and Cooling Systems at the Nuclear Plant
•Fukushima demonstrated that loss of outside power (Grid Blackout) & Plant Damage to Back-up Systems has severe consequences for both reactors and spent fuel pools
Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer Incidents
Above Movie is Disruptive Failure of ~3MVA Transformer Nuclear Plant Transformers can be 400 Times Larger Capacity
Movie of Transformer Disruptive Failure – NOT DUE TO GIC
Wrap-UpThe Nation has experienced a Several Decade Long Failure to
Understand how Risk has Migrated into our Electric Grid Infrastructures from Space Weather Threats
What are the Issues We should Understand Going Forward
•The Sun, Magnetosphere remain fully Capable of Producing Historically Large Geomagnetic Storms in the Future
•Grid Design Evolutions have unknowingly Escalated GIC Risks and Potential Impacts
Un-Recognized Systemic Risk – No Design Code Yet to minimize this Threat
•Given Sufficient Time the Reoccurrence of Large Storm Event is a Certainty – Only with Much more Serious Consequences