The Incredible Complexity of Commercial Aviation

Session 8

Future of Commercial Aviation

1OLLI Fall 2020

“It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future”

Yogi Barra

OLLI Fall 2020 2

Some Challenges Facing Commercial Aviation

• Covid19 Pandemic• Survival

• Attracting passengers

• Profitability• Fuel prices

• Workforce-unions

• Capacity

• Competition• Low cost carriers

• Internet-Meeting’s, etc

• Ground transportation

• Private

• High speed

• High speed rail

• “Hyperloop”

• Environmental issues• Noise

• Emissions

• CO2 mandates

• Passenger satisfaction• Health concerns

• Level of service

• Fleet planning• Retire/replace older aircraft

• When/with what?

• Return stored aircraft?

• Airport security

• Drones

• Air Traffic

• ATC-NexGen

OLLI Fall 2020 3

Autonomous Aircraft

• A Boeing study showed that the aviation industry will need 637,000 pilots in the next 20 years

• There are presently only 200,000 trained pilots

• This shortage would hamper the growth of airlines and aircraft sales

• Autopilots typically do about 90% of the flying

• Per FAA regulations, takeoffs are always done manually

• About 99% of landings are done manually

• Airbus, Boeing and Sikorsky are working to develop artificial intelligence to allow planes to fly with only one pilot, or with no pilot

• Will passengers be willing to fly without a pilot?

OLLI Fall 2020 4

Autonomous Aircraft

• Xwing Inc. is using several specially outfitted Cessna Grand Caravans—workhorses of short-haul, single-pilot cargo operations - to gather data about navigation, automated emergency maneuvers and autonomous landing features

• The goal is to demonstrate their technology by showing its reliability on current turboprops already flying established routes in everyday conditions

• Their long term goal is commercial use without anyone in the cockpit

• The question is will and if and if: will it take 5 years or 50?

OLLI Fall 2020 5

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/air-car-makes-first-flights/

The Klein Air Car, whose name is a pretty accurate description, took its first meaningful test flight last week and now theoretically heads into the uncharted territory of marketability

Flying Cars-Competition for Airlines?

OLLI Fall 2020 6

2.25 Minutes

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/air-car-makes-first-flights/

Supersonic Airliners-Past and Future?

• British-French Concorde SST (1976 to 2003)

• Cruise speed 1,340 mph

• Capacity 92-120 passengers

• Passengers ~ 50

• Fares similar to today’s long-haul business class

• Sale price: $200 million, plus options and interior

• Flight testing: Mid 2020’s

• Passenger flights: By 2030

OLLI Fall 2020 7

Boom “Overture”

8

Boeing’s Proposed Hypersonic Plane Is Really, Really FastSupersonic planes are always almost here, but maybe the way to fly is to go faster. Much, much faster.

Supersonic or Hypersonic?- Mach 5

It would cruise at 95,000 feet, at 3,800 miles per hour. The G-force feeling upon takeoff would last a full 12 minutes. BOEING

THIS WAS PRESENTED IN MID 2018 – IT WAS NOTED AS A CONCEPT FOR BOTH CIVILIAN AND MILITARY APPLICATIONS

Supersonic speed is 770 MPH

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmi4k3rFVio

Flying in the wings 1:44 MinutesOLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmi4k3rFVio

Advanced Airframe Concepts -Blended Wing Body Aircraft

OLLI Fall 2020 9

BWB aircraft have its capacity increased by inserting a “ T plug”

Propulsion Concepts-Increased Fan Diameters

• Rolls Royce is proposing two advanced high thrust High Bypass Ratio turbo fan engines

• The Advance Fan: BPR=11:1

• The Ultra Fan BPR=15:1

• RR Trent XWB used on the A350 has a BPR=5:1

• Pratt Whitney is producing a lower thrust high bypass engine for the A320NEO

• PW1100 has a BPR=12:1

• GE’s GE9X used on the 777 X has a BPR= 9.9:1

OLLI Fall 2020 10

Propulsion Concepts-Open Rotor Engines

• Major engine manufacturers have programs in place to study and demonstrate open rotor propulsion engines

• Open rotor engines promise much lower fuel consumption

• But at the expense of lower aircraft speeds and increased mechanical complexity

OLLI Fall 2020 11

Propulsion Concepts-Electric Hybrid Propulsion Concepts

OLLI Fall 2020 12

Propulsion Concepts-Hybrid Electric Propulsion Concepts

OLLI Fall 2020 13

Propulsion Concepts-Electric Propulsion

OLLI Fall 2020 14

Future: Near Term-Airframe Manufacturers Respond to Market

• Airframe manufacturers respond to market

• Boeing changed direction on its “mid market” New Model Airplane (NMA)

• It was to be a twin aisle aircraft• Now will likely be a single aisle aircraft• A more direct replacement for the 757• For medium and long range ETOPS “thinner” routes

• Composite structure?• GEnx engines?• 200-250 passengers

• Boeing always “studying” more exotic aircraft• Blended wing designs• Supersonic aircraft• Hypersonic aircraft

• Manufacturers react to other manufacturers’ new aircraft as well as market requirements

• If Boeing launches 797 single aisle NMA

• Airbus will have to decide whether to respond with a new aircraft of compete with an A320 derivative

• Both will be watching the Chinese COMAC C-919

OLLI Fall 2020 15

Future: Near Term-Airframe Manufacturers Respond to Market

• More than likely the airliners of the next 30 years, will look like more of the same

• Tube and wing configurations

• With incremental technology improvements

• In aerodynamics, engines, and avionics

• U.S. airlines will have to incorporate electronics upgrades for FAA’s NextGen air traffic control system

• Commercial airliners will continue to fly at sub sonic speeds

• Not much progress in commercial speeds

• SST business jets and small SST commercial jets may be developed in the next decade

OLLI Fall 2020 16

Aircraft Cost of Ownership Drives Aircraft Designs

• Expected fuel efficiency improvements 2020-2050

• Aircraft “fuel” efficiency depends on:

• Improvements in engine efficiency/fuel burn

• Improvements in airframe aerodynamics

• Aerodynamic drag reduction

• Evolutionary improvements

• Mostly engine related

• Revolutionary improvements

• Airframe configuration changes

• Hybrid electric propulsion

• Electric propulsion

• Need battery energy density improvements

• Airframe manufacturers and engine companies are working these concepts

• “Startup” companies are also active

OLLI Fall 2020 17

Aircraft Fuels- Future – CO2 Fuel?

• “This is the future of aviation," Oskar Meijerink tells me in a café in Rotterdam airport.

• His company, in partnership with the airport's owners, is planning the world's first commercial production of jet fuel made, in part, from carbon dioxide (CO2).

• Based at the airport, it will work by capturing CO2, the gas which contributes to global warming, from the air.

• In a separate process, co-electrolysis splits water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is mixed with the captured CO2 to form Synthesis-gas, which can be transformed into jet fuel.

• The pilot plant, which aims to produce 1,000 liters of jet fuel a day, will get its energy from solar panels.

• The partners in the project hope to produce the first fuel in 2021. They argue that their jet fuel will have a much smaller CO2 impact than regular fuel.

• "The beauty of direct air capture is that the CO2 is reused again, and again, and again," says Louise Charles, from Clime-works, the company which provides the direct air capture technology.

• But, will it be affordable?

OLLI Fall 2020 18

Aircraft Fuels- Future – Hydrogen?

• Airbus has announced plans for the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft models that run on hydrogen and could take to the skies by 2035

• The first of the Airbus concepts could carry between 120 and 200 passengers more than 2,000 nautical miles by using a turbofan design that includes a modified gas-turbine engine running on hydrogen, which could be stored in tanks located behind the plane’s rear pressure bulkhead

• The second concept, a turboprop design, would also use a modified gas engine but could carry up to 100 passengers for 1,000 nautical miles on short-haul trips

• Airbus also plans a blend wing type plane that could carry as many passengers as the turbofan design and travel as far too

OLLI Fall 2020 19

Aircraft Fuels- Future – Hydrogen Requirements

• A redesign of much of the aircraft, from the propulsion system to fuel storage

• Advancements in light-weight storage tanks and cryogenic cooling systems, in order to take advantage of hydrogen’s high energy density

• A significant ramp-up in “green” hydrogen and/or carbon capture and storage (CCS) to increase the share of emissions-free hydrogen production

• Hydrogen infrastructure improvements in fuel delivery to airports and airport refueling

• A reduction in the price of production methods for “green” hydrogen in order to compete with kerosene on a cost basis

OLLI Fall 2020 20

“Green Hydrogen” fuel for aircraft infrastructure

OLLI Fall 2020 21

Have a Pleasant Flight not Fright! Fly Boeing

22

Boeing and GE Aviation’s Future for the next 20 years - The 777X and the re-introduction of the 737 Max – Here is the engine comparisons…..

What are some stats on the largest Gas Turbine Engine, the GE9X on the 777X?

It is:- 13 Feet in diameter. Wider than the fuselage of a 737 aircraft.- 18 Feet long.- The Front fan is 10.7 feet in diameter.- The Weight is 18,300 pounds.

- The Thrust is 105,000 pounds for the 777X; capable up to 135,000 pounds.

What are some stats on the , the Leap 1B on the 737 Max?

It is:- 6 feet in diameter or less than 50%.- 11.5 feet long or less than 40%.- Front fan is 5.8 feet in diameter or less than 45%.- The weight is 6,200 pounds or less than 2.8 times.

- Thrust is 23,000 pounds up to 28,000, or less than 4 times.

Some additional facts:- The low pressure section rotates at ~ 2,000 revs. / minute.- Internal temperatures range up to 800 degrees F.

- The high pressure turbine rotates at ~ 10,000 revs. / minute- Internal temperatures there range up to 2,500 degrees F.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2G6cQ63Z8c

The Leap 1B engine 2:17 Minutes

OLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2G6cQ63Z8c

23

Future: Near Term……………………and lots of great video’s on the history of Aviation

More than likely the airliners of the next 30 years, will look like more of the same, with incremental technology improvements and with the 797 as a variance of the 757 fulfilling a need for United, Delta and American, soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql0Op1VcELw

New airliner for the near term? – Boeing 797 10 Minutes

https://www.aerotime.aero/clement.charpentreau/24540-airbus-unveils-maveric

-the-airliner-of-the-future-video

Airbus unveils MAVERIC, the airliner of the future 1 Minute

GE Un-ducted Fan Engine from the 1980’s 6:55 Minutes + 2:50

Will supersonic transport make a comeback? Doubtful, but, never say never……

Companies in the United States and abroad are now taking a new look at supersonic air travel. Lighter and more efficient composite materials, combined with new engine and airframe designs, may offer the potential for introduction of a viable…………SST ?.

This concept was presented to the Commercial Airlines in the 1980’s to US and European Airlines. It was also presented to all the Airlines in Australia.

The fuel savings is amazing, however, the airlines were concerned with the image and felt passengers would refuse to fly in (UDF) airliners.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6Fe6O8w61Y

OLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os2_Idyr7Wo 5 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql0Op1VcELwhttps://www.aerotime.aero/clement.charpentreau/24540-airbus-unveils-maveric-the-airliner-of-the-future-videohttps://www.aerotime.aero/clement.charpentreau/24540-airbus-unveils-maveric-the-airliner-of-the-future-videohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6Fe6O8w61Yhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os2_Idyr7Wo

24

Interesting Information - Aerospace:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEiWwRyq_9E

Howie’s favorite – GE 9X – Separates into modules3 Minutes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osQGSFVEg2I

Engine Systems how they function 3:22 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-O4J9Cv8QU

HB Turbofan Engines – Story and History 6:32 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6HXMfMY_N0&list=PLSlru5PbHgUGVXLpX-mKUQOfUhu170vvM

Rick Kennedy of GE Aviation and so much more 6:16 + 4:45 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wlmQdmnuXI

The CFM 56 Engine Program was several weeks away from cancellation in 1979 and is now the leader in GTE engine sales worldwide. 6:49 Minutes

OLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnfse4NXo0k&t=248s

Why Planes Don't Fly Faster 10 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjYw0GdRpm0

How a CFM 56 Engine works 3:20 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEiWwRyq_9Ehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osQGSFVEg2Ihttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-O4J9Cv8QUhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6HXMfMY_N0&list=PLSlru5PbHgUGVXLpX-mKUQOfUhu170vvMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wlmQdmnuXIhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnfse4NXo0k&t=248shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjYw0GdRpm0

25

Interesting Information - Aerospace:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyHUWG4_pXc&feature=emb_rel_end

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfFZ2-Am-Zk

https://www.geaviation.com/commercial/engines/ge9x-commercial-aircraft-engine

A fascinating look at the new technologies of the GE9X – suggest all of it – make sure you go not only in the video’s, but, also the ENGINE circles on the ENGINE itself – displays all the significant improvements.

Why, all the rave about the new GE9X Engine

What is reverse thrust? 5:47 Minutes

Describe the functions of reverse thrust.

Lights on the wings of Commercial aircraft, different colors, why?

Wing lights are different colors 8:37 Minutes

OLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyHUWG4_pXc&feature=emb_rel_endhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfFZ2-Am-Zkhttps://www.geaviation.com/commercial/engines/ge9x-commercial-aircraft-engine

26

Interesting Information - Aerospace:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNqXf6t7e-w

What is the purpose of the white stripe on the fan center cone?

Winglets – why are they important 3:36 Minutes

Why are aircraft wings built to flex?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ai2HmvAXcU0

777 wing test reached its target 3:16 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbc4bPOkZHw

Noise stripes 6:30 Minutes

Why do most new airplane designs include the upward winglets on the wings

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_59gKkrTzY

What is an APU? 1:33 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLPgU6cC3I0

Do Airliners have Windscreen Wipers? 4.5 Minutes

OLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNqXf6t7e-whttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ai2HmvAXcU0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbc4bPOkZHwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_59gKkrTzYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLPgU6cC3I0

27

Interesting Information - Aerospace :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FogSAQ63f3Q

GEnx -2B | Boeing 747-8 Aircraft Engine | GE Aviation – 2 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpIs8Y9vgSs

Virus Grounded airliners 10:15 Minutes

How are large engines assembled?

The A380 Story, Airbus decision to launch 11 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv5C5I67SNA

Why was the A380 such a financial disaster for Airbus?How can an airplane weighing over 1 million pounds fly?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuQW8NA47pM

How do massive airplanes fly? 2:45 Minutes

What do all the V’s in an airplanes takeoff or rotation stand for?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p8Pqna4t7c

V1 – VR – V2: 7:17 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIkGBYZPDiU

What are some of the aircraft that never made it?

Ten aircraft that did not make it: 12:25 MinutesOLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FogSAQ63f3Qhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpIs8Y9vgSshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv5C5I67SNAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuQW8NA47pMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p8Pqna4t7chttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIkGBYZPDiU

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Interesting Information - Aerospace :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwxGDdsI_bU787 in flight 2.3 Minutes – a touch and go training

What is a touch and go?What is the world’s longest flight?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNUomfuWuA8

What is the landing “Flare Nose” 3:11 Minutes

The landing flare, also referred to as the round out, is a maneuver or stage during the landing of an aircraft. The flare follows the final approach phase and precedes the touchdown and roll-out phases of landing. In the flare, the nose of the plane is raised, slowing the descent rate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfFZ2-Am-ZkWhat is reverse thrust? 5:47 Minutes

What is reverse thrust?

What is the Flare Nose?

Longest Flights 12:32 Minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKc9xUjZMKg

OLLI Fall 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwxGDdsI_bUhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNUomfuWuA8https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfFZ2-Am-Zkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKc9xUjZMKg