Kedar NEUPANE

Joint Secretary, MoHA

26th April 2018

Session 4 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance

through implementation of Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP)

and Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction

3rd Commemoration Seminar of Gorkha Earthquake

2

Basic Concept of Sendai Framework for DRR

Understanding Disaster Risk

Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance

Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction

Towards implementation of DRR Measures

Contents

3

7 Global Targets

4 Priorities for Action Priority 1

Understanding disaster risk

Priority 2 Strengthening

disaster risk governance

Priority 3 Investment

for DRR

Priority 4 Enhancing disaster preparedness and

“Build Back Better”

(a) Reduce mortality

(b) Reduce affected people

(d) Reduce damage to critical

infrastructure (e) Increase number of countries with national & local DRR strategies

(f) Enhance International Cooperation

(g) Enhance Access to the Disaster Information

(c) Reduce economic loss

Sendai Framework for DRR

4

Understanding Disaster Risk

5

Seismic Gap Kathmandu

2015 Gorkha EQ

Seismic Potential in Nepal

Still much Possibility of Big Earthquake

6

Risk Assessment in Kathmandu Valley Scenario Earthquake and Estimated Shaking level

Scenario Earthquake

Other Facilities Critical Facilities and

Infrastructures

Shaking in KV

2 times 3 times

7

Safe

Resilience

Critical Infrastructure (School, hospital, government building, bridge, etc.)

Other facilities (Residential, Commercial residential mixed buildings)

Severe shaking

Moderate shaking level

Safe and Resilience by Type of Facilities To keep functions at the time of disaster

8

30.6 % of total buildings!

28.9 % of total school buildings!

26.7 % of total Bridges

Human Casualty 0.3% Death

3.32 % Injured 42.92 % Evacuee!

Economic Loss NPR765,675 Mil

36% of National GDP

Result of Risk Assessment

To maintain urban function at the event of disaster, important to secure safety of critical facilities and

infrastructures

What should be done to reduce estimated damages?

9

Strengthening

Disaster Risk Governance

Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP)

Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP)

10 For Residents

KVRP

LDRRP

National DRR Plan

Provence, District, Municipality

Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance ～Relationship with KVRP and LDRRP～

11

Comprehensive Policy Framework

Measures to Avoid Worst Case Scenario

Concept of Build Back Better (BBB)

Overall Guideline for Development

The time frame: 20 years

Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) ～Objectives of the KVRP～

12

Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) ～Road Map～

2020 (Short) Strategy and Planning

2025 (Medium) Implementation mainly

for critical infrastructures

2030 (Long) Revision of Plans

Key Milestone

13

Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ～Formulation Flow of LDRRP～

②Setting DRR Target and Measures

①Risk Identification

③ Clarify Roles and Responsibilities between National and Local government

④Priority Measures for DRR

14

Building Damage (Heavy)

Flood and Fire Landslide

① Risk Assessment and Identification (Understanding Risk)

Example: Lalitpur MC

Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ～①Risk Identification～

Risk Map (Flood and Fire)

15

④ Plan and Prioritize Actions for DRR, Budgeting, and Implement

Example: Lalitpur MC

Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ～④Priority Measures for DRR～

16

Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) DRR Activities

17

Investment for DRR

National Level Efforts

Improve Seismic Resistance of School Buildings

Local Level Efforts

Building Permit and Promotion to improve

Seismic Resistance of Residential Houses

Designation and Development of Open Spaces

for Evacuation

18

Moderate:810 (14.1%) Heavy: 1,654 (28.9%) Total: 2,464 (43.0%)

Investment for Retrofitting and Re-building is

Necessary to Mitigate Damages

Very High! Reason necessary to take action

Note: Total No. of School Buildings: 5,731 (2,115 schools)

Investment for DRR (National Level Efforts) ～School Building Strengthening～

19

Rebuild Vulnerable School Bldgs to Reduce Damage

-167 (51%)

Structure Type

Current situation Rebuild Vulnerable building

No. of building

No. of heavy damage

No. of death

No. of building

No. of heavy damage

No. of death

Adobe 9 7 36 Rebuild to brick masonry

with cement mortar BM with mud mortar, > 20 yr 305 214 369

BM with mud mortar, < 20 yr 212 105 183

BM with cement mortar 526 159 268

Total 526 326 588 526 159 268

-320 (54%)

Rebuild

Construction cost: 12,868 mil. NPR

(1.23% of National Budget)

Case of Rebuilding (Adobe, Brick Masonry with mud mortar)

20

Progress of School Building Strengthening in Japan

Progress of Retrofitting of Public School Buildings

Source: MEXT, 2016

More than 20 Years to achieve in Japan

21

Rough Estimation of costs for Seismic Retrofitting of Buildings

Enforcement of

Building Permit System

Building damage

Economic loss (mil. NPR)

Building (2016) (Total:

52,821)

Heavy damage 9,603(18.2%) 57,355

Moderate damage 6,277(11.9%)

Slight damage 9,322(17.6%)

Building damage & Economic Loss (Reconstruction cost)

×20% (Rough estimate for Retrofitting)

11,471 (mil. NPR)

1,085

(mil. NPR)

10.5 times

Annual Budget of Lalitpur Metropolitan City = (Actual Income 2072/2073 (2016-2017))

Not possible to implement only with local Government

Investment for DRR (Local Level Efforts) Example: Lalitpur MC

Strengthening of Residential Buildings

=

22

Designation and Development of Open Spaces as Evacuation Place and DRR bases

Local Government can manage

Investment for DRR (Local Level Efforts)

Evacuation and Development of Open Space

Example: Lalitpur MC

23

Challenges for Investment for DRR

How to implement Risk Assessment

How to speed up formulation of LDRRP

How to secure budget for DRR

How to coordinate related Ministries

How to prioritize necessary DRR Projects and implemented

24

Towards

Implementation of DRR Measures

25

Implementation of DRR Measures ～New Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act～

Natural Calamity Relief Act, 1982⇒1989⇒1992

Response oriented to DRR

National Level • National Council for DRRM⇒Chaired by Prime Minister

• Executive Committee⇒Chaired by Minister of MoHA • Experts Committee⇒5 members with various fields of expertise

• National DRRM Authority⇒under MoHA

Local Level • Province Disaster Management Committee⇒Chaired by Chief Ministers • District Disaster Management Committee ⇒Chaired by Chief District Officer • Local (Municipality and Similar) Disaster Management Committee⇒Chaired by

Mayor/Chairperson

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act, 2017

Response Oriented

Comprehensive and DRR Oriented

With coordination of NCDRRM and EC, NDRRMA expected to coordinate Line Ministries to speed up

implementation of DRR Measures

26

Issues on Implementation of KVRP and LDRRP

National Council for DRRM (Prime Minister)

Executive Committee (Minister of MoHA)

National DRRM Authority (Chief Executive)

Line Ministries

・・・・・ Line

Ministries Line

Ministries Line

Ministries

Local Gov.

Local Gov.

Local Gov.

Local Gov.

Local Gov.

Local Gov.

・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・

Budgeting for Implementation

Clarification of Roles/Responsibility, and Demarcation of Works between National and Local Gov.

Formulation of Operation Plan by each Line Ministries

Formulation of Plans for each Measures based on Operation Plan (E.g. Seismic Performance Improvement

Plan of Schools by MoEdu, and Bridge by MoPIT

Coordination among Ministries and MoHA will coordinate

27

Implementation of DRR Measures

Nepal’s Efforts to be disseminated to Asia and World

Tremendous efforts have been made by the Government of Nepal in cooperation of JICA

and other partners and it is the time to disseminate efforts made to other Asian

Countries and then to the World

In Mongolia July 3-6, 2018

28

Media

Lifeline Agencies/Comp

anies

Business Entrepreneurs

Volunteers

Private Sectors

Citizen Societies Citizens

/Communities

Engineers, Consultants

Donor Agencies

Government

National Government

Provincial Governments

Local Governments

Security Agencies

Fire Brigades

DCC

Research Institutes/Unive

rsities

Schools Teachers, Students

Hospitals, Health Facilities

NGOs/INGOs

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management is

EVERYONE’S BUSINESS

30

Reference

31

District Municipality CNS-1 CNS-2 CNS-3 WN

BHAKTAPUR

Bhaktapur 11,570 22,392 31,529 4,536

Changunarayan 11,128 24,543 37,062 3,726

Madhyapur Thimi 11,378 23,877 34,396 3,426

Suryabinayak 15,769 32,751 47,208 4,260

Total (BHAKTAPUR) 49,845 103,563 150,195 15,947

KATHMANDU

Budhanilkantha 7,490 21,198 36,607 4,279

Chandragiri 25,664 48,190 64,429 8,275

Dakshinkali 6,016 11,976 16,947 1,583

Gokarneshwar 7,981 20,586 34,319 4,117

Kageshwori Manohara 6,045 15,452 25,248 2,622

Kathmandu Metropolitan City 118,000 244,421 352,694 49,390

Kirtipur 18,771 33,123 42,936 5,833

Nagarjuna 14,650 31,653 46,616 5,959

Shankharapur 1,441 3,931 7,090 939

Tarkeshwar 6,875 17,998 30,095 4,521

Tokha 5,911 15,983 27,094 3,396

Total（KATHMANDU） 218,844 464,511 684,075 90,914

LALITPUR

Bardeu Rural Municipality 383 839 1,286 70

Bagmati Rural Municipality 272 574 860 67

Godawari 27,257 51,396 69,725 6,227

Lalitpur Metropolitan City 57,355 107,349 145,934 15,861

Mahalaxmi 16,670 32,493 45,053 3,837

Konjyosom Rural Municipality 378 810 1,225 77

Total （Lalitpur） 102,314 193,460 264,083 26,138

Grand Total 371,003 761,534 1,098,353 132,999

Estimated Total Damage Amount Each Municipality (Unit: Million NPR)

32

Scenario ground motion School Health

Facility Government

Building Historical

Architecture

WN 20,462 22,534 2,444 1,321

CNS-1 51,231 68,588 8,669 1,925

CNS-2 98,171 165,683 16,514 2,267

CNS-3 134,932 232,782 22,708 2,377

Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Each Critical Facilities (School, Hospital, Government, Historical Buildings)

(Unit: Million NPR)

33

Scenario ground motion

Road Bridge Water Sewage Power Mobile BTS

Total

WN 0 377 36 76 19 82 590

0.0% 63.9% 6.1% 12.9% 3.2% 13.9% 100.0%

CNS-1 471 898 71 135 56 272 1,903

24.8% 47.2% 3.7% 7.1% 2.9% 14.3% 100.0%

CNS-2 1,620 1,359 129 200 129 707 4,144

39.1% 32.8% 3.1% 4.8% 3.1% 17.1% 100.0%

CNS-3 2,878 1,914 191 290 197 1,142 6,612

43.5% 28.9% 2.9% 4.4% 3.0% 17.3% 100.0%

Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Each Critical Infrastructures (road, bridge, sewage, power distribution and mobile BTS

(Unit: Million NPR)

34

Scenario ground motion

Building Infrastructure Total

WN 132,999 590 133,589

99.4% 0.6% 100.0%

CNS-1 371,003 1,903 371,275

99.5% 0.5% 100.0%

CNS-2 761,531 4,144 765,675

99.5% 0.5% 100.0%

CNS-3 1,098,353 6,612 1,104,965

99.6% 0.4% 100.0%

Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Building and Infrastructure

(Unit: Million NPR)

35

Human Casualty

Scenario Ground Motion

Earthquake Occurrence Scene

Weekend (18:00) Weekday (12:00) Night

Number Ratio Number Ratio Number Ratio

Death

WN 2,123 0.1% 2,784 0.1% 3,034 0.1%

CNS-1 6,393 0.2% 8,282 0.3% 9,133 0.3%

CNS-2 15,526 0.6% 19,959 0.7% 22,179 0.8%

CNS-3 25,008 0.9% 31,956 1.1% 35,726 1.3%

Injured

WN 8,316 0.3% 10,905 0.4% 11,880 0.4%

CNS-1 25,036 0.9% 32,435 1.2% 35,766 1.3%

CNS-2 60,803 2.2% 78,168 2.8% 86,861 3.1%

CNS-3 97,940 3.5% 125,152 4.5% 139,914 5.0%

Evacuee

WN 279,942 10.0% 285,850 10.3% 279,031 10.0%

CNS-1 645,483 23.2% 652,798 23.4% 642,743 23.1%

CNS-2 1,202,734 43.2% 1,206,530 43.3% 1,196,080 42.9%

CNS-3 1,624,032 58.3% 1,619,792 58.1% 1,613,314 57.9%

Estimated Human Causality Death, Injured, and Evacuee