Session 20 1

Risk Evaluation

Determines the relative seriousness of hazard risks

as they affect the local community

Session 20 2

“[The] public [is] willing to accept voluntary risks

approximately 1,000 times greater than involuntary risks”

Keith Smith, in Environmental Hazards: Assessing and Reducing Disaster

Session 20 3

3 Methods Used to Evaluate Risk

• Creating a risk matrix

• Comparing hazard risks against levels of risk estimated during the analysis process with previously established risk evaluation criteria

• Evaluating risks according the SMAUG methodology

Session 20 4

FEMA Risk Matrix Values• Class A: High-risk condition with highest priority for

mitigation and contingency planning (immediate action)

• Class B: Moderate-to-high-risk condition with risk addressed by mitigation and contingency planning (prompt action)

• Class C: Risk condition sufficiently high to give consideration for further mitigation and planning (planned action)

• Class D: Low-risk condition with additional mitigation contingency planning (advisory in nature)

Session 20 5

Risk Matrix Example

Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency. 1997. MultiHazard: Identification and Risk Assessment. FEMA. Washington, DC. P.315

Session 20 6

Risk Register

• Name of the Risk

• Qualitative likelihood value

• Qualitative consequences value

• Level of risk as determined by evaluation on the risk matrix

• Priority rating

• Additional information

Session 20 7

Risk Evaluation Criteria

• Loss of life and harm to people’s health

• Economic loss

• Environmental harm

• Lifeline damage

• Social infrastructure damage

• Loss of heritage

Session 20 8

Hazards Risk Management Analysis Context

• Legal requirements

• Cost and equity

• Risks that are clearly unacceptable

• Risks that should be kept as low as reasonably practicable

Session 20 9

SMAUG Prioritization ProcessThe SMAUG Prioritization Process

Factor Description Priority Rating

S – Seriousness The risk will affect the most people and/or will cost the most money

It will affect the least number of people or cost the least dollars.

High Priority

Low Priority

M - Manageability The risk could be most affected by intervention

We can do little to affect the risk.

High Priority

Low Priority

A – Acceptability The risk is the least acceptable in terms of the political, social, or economic impact

It will have little political, social, or economic impact

High Priority

Low Priority

U – Urgency The risk urgently needs to be fixed

It could be fixed next year

High Priority

Low Priority

G – Growth The risk will increase quickly

The risk will remain static

High Priority

Low PriorityFrom Lunn, John. 2003. “Community Consultation: The Foundation of Effective Risk Management.” Journal of Emergency Management. V.1, No.1, Spring. Pp. 39-48.