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Event ManagementTraining & ConferencesKnowledge Development Center

seminar

P I L K A D A(Strategi & Taktik Pemenangannya)

OPINI PUBLIK & PEMILU KADA*Fenomena, Peran Media

dalam Membentuknya & Pengaruhnya

Effendi Gazali, Ph.D. MPS IDKoordinator Program Master Komunikasi

Politik UIKetua Yayasan Salemba School

(Institute for Media & Campaign Literacy)Anggota International Communication

Association (Divisi Political Communication)

[email protected]

KOMUNIKASI PUBLIK1. OF PUBLIC INTEREST2. INVOLVING PUBLIC

KOMUNIKASI POLITIK: Proses pengiriman pesan-pesan politik, mampumembuat pengaruh politik yang signifikan (bagiSENDER/ COMMUNICATOR), bersamaan denganproses sinambungnya well-informed citizen/ society

POLITICAL MARKETING(How to penetrate a political market, how to win, how to maintain a winning atmosphere)


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KONTEKS KOMUNIKASI POLITIK INDONESIA MUTAKHIR

Indonesia tiba pada ERA PEMILIHAN LANGSUNG yang sangat mengandalkanPOLITIK CITRA terhadap PERSONALITAS

Karenanya harus segera memasuki ERA 3-C 1. CONSUMERISM 2. CELEBRITY 3. CYNICISM

<Corner, J. and Pels, D. (eds) (2003) Media and the Restyling of Politics, London: Sage>

CONSUMERISM dalam komunikasi politik kita lebih parah karena kitamengadopsi gayanya, tapi belum ATURAN MAINNYA, misal: kita tidakmelaksanakan dengan SUNGGUH-SUNGGUH dan HATI-HATI PEMERIKSAAN terhadap DANA KAMPANYE

Akibatnya POLITIK CITRA dalam Pemilu 2004 & 2009 lebih ditentukan oleh(kombinasi, akumulatif): Seberapa banyak dana kampanye yang dimiliki & Seberapa hebat Anda menyusun pesan-pesan yang EMOSIONAL yang menjadikan Anda sebagai SELEBRITAS Politik (Communication Without Substance; Package Over Substance)

Saya sudah bertanya sejak 2004


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KONTEKS KOMUNIKASI POLITIK INDONESIAMUTAKHIR

PEMILU yang diragukan: Tidak ada yang tahu persis berapaDPS/DPT; Kandidat relatif tidak punya akses komprehensif terhadapIT KPU; Akuntan Publik “Angkat Tangan” terhadap audit Dana Pemilu; Panwasnya Antara Ada dan Tiada

Tak ada Audit Ilmiah yang Kredibel terhadap Polling Jelang Pemiludan Polling terhadap Komunikasi Politik/Publik

Yang berjaya adalah POLITICAL MARKETING: the Winner Rules: sehingga relatif gampang mengatakan: “yang menggoyang-goyangsekarang adalah BARISAN SAKIT HATI, tunggu dong 2014”

POLITICAL COMMUNICATION dan PUBLIC COMMUNICATION bertanya: Apakah Publik (Citizen) Well-Informed terhadap Proses-Proses Pemilu, apakah pakar bisa menjelaskan dan publik bisamengetahui mengapa The Winner Won?

Noelle Neumann, 1980:84

istilah Opini Publik muncul di tahun 1781Berhubungan dengan perbedaan yang bersifat umum dan yang bersifat pribadiOpini publik dibatasi sebagai sesuatu yang bersifat umum


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OPINI PUBLIKMEDIAMEDIA

PUBLIKPUBLIK

LEMBAGALEMBAGA

DIMANA OPINI PUBLIK BERADA?Dulu digambarkan begini

“Political Communication in Indonesia: Revisiting the Media Performance in Three Eras”, in Willnat & AW, Political Communication in Asia. Routledge: New York-London (2009)

Civil Society

Media

Government

Market

Gazali’s Model (2009): Peran Media makin signifikan


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Opinari berpikir atau menduga / harapanPublikus milik masyarakat luas

OPINI PUBLIK

Menyangkut hal seperti dugaan, perkiraan, harapan danpilihan yang dilakukan banyak orang banyak: jadi 1

OPINI PUBLIK diduga/ diperkirakan/ diharapkan jadi1 PILIHAN PUBLIK

x Frekuensi atau Kekuatan Representasinya

Campaign

Elected

Fit & ProperTest

Cabinet

100 days

Evaluation

Yearly

Reshuffle

POLITICAL PARTY (ies)CANDIDATE

•Selected Programs•Memorable•Beneficial•Populis•Timeline

•Strong leadership(assurable)

DONORs

CONSULTANTs

NGOs

CONSTITUENTs

MEDIA

Candidates & Programs Assessable


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Apa yang HARUS DILAKUKAN(a.l. Vraga, et.al. 2010; Dumitrescu, 2010; Ryan, 2010, Winter, 2008- all in Political Communication Vol. 27, 2010)

KLAIM ELEKTABILITAS & DAERAH PSIKOLOGISNYA TERLEBIH DAHULU!<ingat ini HORSE-RACES)RUMUS TEORI-TEORI PUBLIC RELATIONS & OPINION termutakhiradalah TEORI CO-CREATIONCIPTAKAN SATU ATAU DUA SIMBOL yang MEMORABLE!

PRAKTEK KOMUNIKASI POLITIK EMPIRIKNYA

Kandidat Konstituendi DapilRISET

RISETRISET

DATA KUAT(WOW! EFFECT)

KONSISTEN(....’S BILL)

STAFAHLI

HUB (S)

MEDIA DARLINGCONTROVERSIAL, BAD,

SELLING ISSUES

BICARA PENDEKSELIPAN HUMOR

+PERTAMA INVESTIGATIF

+PERTAMA ANTIGRATIFIKASI

Bicara diawali dari Konteks Konstituen


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TOUCHINGMempesona, WOW

REALISTIKDi sekitar kita, down to earth

PERSONALWhat is in

for me

3 LINGKARAN ISI PESAN MUTAKHIR

KAMPANYE

Strategi yang CEPAT membentukOPINI PUBLIK

SUBSTANSINYA RELATIF KECIL – tapi MENDESAKATAU FOKUS PADA SATU ISU – tapi AKURATTERDAPAT TIME FRAMEDIIKUTI DENGAN TRACK RECORD BISA JUGA DISERTAI ATTACKINGATAU CONTRASTINGJustru tujuannya untuk mempertajam PERBEDAANYang karena dicatat (to be traced) akan menjadiKONTRAK POLITIK


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Contoh SUBSTANSI yang FOKUS

HEALTH CARE PLANPemerintah mewajibkan Perusahaan melindungi segenap karyawannyadengan asuransi kesehatan yang memadai; di luar karyawanPemerintah akan menjaminterdapatnya sistem perpajakan yang memungkinkan terdapatnya danauntuk asuransi kesehatan bagi wargabiasa

Ngapain pemerintah mewajibkan danpunya mandat semacam itu?Kita beri saja masing-masing oranguang di bank senilai US $ 5,000, nantiterserah mau dibelikan asuransi dimana, bahkan kalau ada lebihnya, kanuangnya bisa diambilKalau apa-apa dipajakin, usaha kecildan menengah mati dong, Anda inimemang SOSIALIS yang mendistribusikan kesejahteraan

Contoh SUBSTANSI YANG FOKUS

Tidak benar dong!Kalau orang kecelakaan, kakinya retak sebelah,

biayanya kan bisa sampai US $ 15,000 darimananomboknya?

Kalau disuruh beli sendiri, pasti ada yang curang, menjual dari negara-negara bagian lain dengan hargamurah tapi tidak jelas servis-nya

Begini saja:dengan HEALTH CARE PLAN saya:Rakyat Amerika akan menikmati pelayanankesehatan yang persis sama dengan yang dinikmati Anggota Kongres di Washington DC; Yang dinikmati oleh saya maupun Senator McCain


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ANALISIS

PERUMUSAN STRATEGI

PRODUKSI PESAN

IMPLEMENTASIDAN

MONITORING

EVALUASI DAN PERENCANAAN ULANG

Tahapan Strategi MengelolaOPINI PUBLIK

Tentu MenggunakanPolling & Pollster

Biayanya MAHALHarus terus-terusan lagiBelum tentu ILMIAH (tidak ada AUDITOR yang KREDIBEL)Siapa tahu BEKERJA UNTUK BANYAK PIHAKPETAKAN POLLSTER YANG ADA PILIH SECARA EFISIENPATAHKAN SECARA SINGKAT DENGAN ALASAN & KREDIBILITASBERMAIN DI ISU TERTENTUALIANSI STRATEGIS DENGAN MEDIA & LSM (CIVIL SOCIETY)


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Contoh di USA, ada daftar JELAS: List of American Pollsters

DemocratsBruce LeeGeoff GarinStanley GreenbergPeter D. HartCelinda LakeMark MellmanMark Penn

NonpartisanScott RasmussenPew Research Center

RepublicansKellyanne ConwayEd GoeasFrank LuntzBill McInturffFred SteeperLance TarranceAlex GageChris Wilson

Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls

General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Obama +646522.02587 LV10/29 - 11/01Pew Research

Obama +746533.5714 LV10/30 - 11/01CNN/Opinion Research

Obama +746533.6760 LV10/30 - 11/02Ipsos/McClatchy

Obama +944532.52470 LV10/30 - 11/02ABC News/Wash Post

Obama +94251--714 LV10/31 - 11/02CBS News

Obama +545503.3887 LV10/31 - 11/02Diageo/Hotline

Obama +1144552.02472 LV10/31 - 11/02Gallup

Obama +843513.11011 LV11/01 - 11/02NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl

Obama +743503.0971 LV11/01 - 11/02FOX News

Obama +844523.2981 LV11/01 - 11/03IBD/TIPP

Obama +1143542.91201 LV11/01 - 11/03Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

Obama +646522.03000 LV11/01 - 11/03Rasmussen Reports

Obama +248503.5800 LV11/02 - 11/03Battleground (Tarrance)*

Obama +547523.5800 LV11/02 - 11/03Battleground (Lake)*

Obama +943524.0804 LV11/03 - 11/03Marist

Obama +7.644.552.1----10/29 - 11/3RCP Average

Obama +7.345.652.9------Final Results

SpreadMcCain (R)Obama (D)MoESampleDatePoll


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RASMUSSENRasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. As a media company, we make our money by selling advertising, title sponsorships, subscriptions, and content. One thing we don’t sell is polls. Because we value our independence and credibility, Rasmussen Reports cannot be hired to conduct a poll for anyone. For our reports, we decide the questions to ask based upon the needs and interests of our audience. If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls. One thing we’re very proud of during the political season is our bi-partisan audience. Rasmussen Reports is one of the few political sites to attract roughly equal numbers of Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated voters. However, we’re also excited about events beyond the realm of politics including business, current events, and lifestyle topics. Rasmussen Reports conducts a daily measure of consumer and investor confidence that was launched in October 2001, a monthly employment index that began in 2003, and a number of other business related index products. Rasmussen Reports’ campaign coverage has been praised for its independence, accuracy and reliability. Douglas E. Schoen, a pollster for President William J. Clinton, says "Rasmussen Reports is one of America's most insightful and analytical sources of data and analysis on U.S. public opinion. They are fearlessly independent, always ahead of the curve, and offer unique insights unavailable anywhere else. I rely on them to keep me informed about what is happening today and is likely to happen tomorrow." Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. Like the company he started, Scott maintains his independence and has never been a campaign pollster or consultant for candidates seeking office. Scott grew up in the broadcast business before turning to polling.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press is an independent, non-partisan public opinion research organization that studies attitudes toward politics, the press and public policy issues. In this role it serves as a valuable information resource for political leaders, journalists, scholars and citizens.

The Center conducts regular monthly polls on politics and major policy issues as well as the News Interest Index, a weekly survey aimed at gauging the public's interest in and reaction to major news events. Shorter commentaries are produced on a regular basis addressing the issues of the day from a public opinion perspective. In addition, the Center periodically fields major surveys on the news media, social issues and international affairs.

Formerly, the Times Mirror Center for the People & the Press (1990-1995), the Center has been sponsored by The Pew Charitable Trusts since 1996. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press is one of seven projects that make up the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan "fact tank" that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world.All of our current survey results are made available free of charge on our website: www.people-press.org.Andrew Kohut is president of the Pew Research Center and serves as director of both the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and the Pew Global Attitudes Project. He is the founder of Princeton Survey Research Associates and former President of the Gallup Organization.


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Kalau NON-PARTISAN, yang sediakanuangnya JELAS, contoh:The Pew Charitable Trusts

The Pew Charitable Trusts is driven by the power of knowledge to solve today's most challenging problems. It applies a rigorous, analytical approach to improve public policy, inform the public and stimulate civic life.The Trusts is led by President and CEO Rebecca W. Rimel, who has concentrated the organization's work on results-oriented, strategic investments. During Rimel's tenure, the organization has expanded its national programs, while maintaining a significant presence in its home city of Philadelphia.In fiscal year 2008, The Pew Charitable Trusts has invested about $300 million in initiatives to serve the public interest.The Pew Charitable Trusts took over sponsorship of our organization from the Times Mirror Company in 1995. In 2004, we became one of six projects that came together to form the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan "fact tank" that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world.The Pew Charitable Trusts provides the vast bulk of the Center's financial support. However, the Center is solely responsible for its own surveys, reports and findings. In order to preserve the Center's independence and impartiality, the Trusts maintains a wall of separation between its support for the Center's information work and its support for projects that seek to advance policy solutions, just as most newspapers separate their news operations from their editorial pages.

Hati-hati terhadapPUSH POLLING

In the case of a political push poll, the “polling” agency calls thousands of homes and asks voters a series of brief questions which tend to be framed in a very negative way. These questions sometimes contain obvious misinformation, but they plant the seeds of doubt in voters minds. For example, a push pollster might ask “Would you be less likely to vote for candidate Y if you knew that he was gay?” At the end of the “poll,” the voter has internalized the content of the brief survey, and this may influence the voter when he or she votes, endorses candidates, or talks about political issues.There are a number of different types of push polls. The most benign is merely designed to get people thinking about an issue, while more aggressive polls smear opposing candidates or points of view. The questions used in push polling are often very leading, and sometimes circuitous, because they are designed to subtly disseminate misinformation.The first sign that you are being involved in a push poll is the length of conversation you have with the alleged pollster. If a political poll takes around twenty minutes or more, it is probably a legitimate poll. It might even contain some negatively framed questions, but the questions will usually be repeated for each candidate or issue as part of research tool to learn more about voter opinions. The pollster in a push poll will also often fail to ask for demographic information, which is a key part of any real poll. In addition, push polling agencies rarely identify themselves or the campaigns they work with.


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Menyelesaikan Master dalam bidang Komunikasi di UIMaster (kedua) dalam bidang International Development (konsentrasi: International Communication), Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (2000);Ph.D. dengan disertasi “Communication of Politics & Politics of Communication in Indonesia: A Study on Media Performance, Responsibility, and Accountability” di Radboud University, Nijmegen, Belanda; Diterbitkanoleh universitasnya; Nijmegen: Radboud University Press (2004) Salah satu Peneliti Terbaik UI 2003, Bidang Social & Humanity, berdasarkanpublikasi di jurnal internasionalPenerima ICA (International Communication Association) Award, ICA AnnualConference, New Orleans Mei 2004 untuk Research, Teaching & Publication (dari the ICA Instructional & Developmental Division).Publikasi terakhir (2009). “Political Communication in Indonesia: Revisiting the Media Performance in Three Eras”, in Willnat & AW, Political Communication in Asia. Routledge: New York-London.Dewan Juri Anugerah Adiwarta Sampoerna, 2006-2007-2008-2009Salah satu Ikon Politik 2008 GATRASalah satu INTELLECTUALS IMPACTING SOCIETY 2008, oleh CAMPUS ASIA

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