serious gaming: public policy analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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The Gaming of Policy and the Politics of Gaming
© Dr. Igor Mayer [email protected]
Faculty Technology, Policy and Management (TPM) & Signature Games
Delft University of technology, The Netherlands
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References
1. Mayer, I. S. (2009). The Gaming of Policy and the Politics of Gaming: A Review. Simulation & Gaming,
40(6), 825–862. doi:10.1177/1046878109346456
2. Mayer, I. S. (2008). Gaming for policy analysis: learning about complex multi-actor systems. In L. De
Caluwé, G. J. Hofstede, & V. Peters (Eds.), Why do games work? (pp. 31–40). Deventer: Kluwer.
3. Mayer, I. S., Bekebrede, G., Bilsen, A. van, Zhou, Q., & van Bilsen, A. (2009). Beyond Simcity: Urban
Gaming and Multi-Actor Systems. In E. Stolk & M. te Brommelstroet (Eds.), Model Town. Using Urban
Simulation in New Town Planning (pp. 168–181). Amsterdam: SUN/INTI.
4. Duffhues, J., Mayer, I. S., Nefs, M., & van der Vliet, M. (2013). Breaking Barriers to Transit-Oriented
Development: Insights from the Serious Game SPRINTCITY. Environment and Planning B (in press).
5. Mayer, I. S., Zhou, Q., Lo, J., Abspoel, L., Keijser, X., Olsen, E., … Kannen, A. (2013). Integrated,
Ecosystem-based Marine Spatial Planning: Design and Results of a Game-based Quasi-Experiment.
Ocean and Coastal Management, 82, 7–26. doi:dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.04.006
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Simulation-games
Simulation:
purposeful and valid/accurate, dynamic representation of reality, formalized, often quantitative, computerized, etc.
Game:
based upon a rule-set, imaginative, creative, with social interaction (players), experiential, immersion, engagement etc.
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Evolution
1890-1940
War gaming• Krieg Spiel• Ad hoc
educational and political games
1940s
Operations research• Science for
decision making: mathematics, economics, engineering
• Optimization of Military Logistics (raids, etc.)
• Game theory• Operational
gaming
1950s
Systems Analysis• Think tanks• Complex systems
behavior by looking at the entities.
• Formal Gaming (= simulation)
• 1st business games
1960s
Policy analysis• Cold war• Social science perspective. • Free form gaming
1970-80s
Social change and critique•Environment, 3rd world, international relations crisis•Crisis in planning and modeling•System dynamics for complexity
1980s-90s
Interactive policy making•Interactive, participatory modeling and simulation•Strengthening the policy maker – modeler interface
2000s
Complexity• Infrastructure
planning• Reinventing
Serious gaming for military, health care
• Net generation:• Massive
Multiplayer Online Role Playing games
• Second Life, WoW, etc.
2010Social networks and mobility
•Game generation•Internet / Mobile gaming•Augmented and mixed reality
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Crisis in MSG for policy making (70s)
Many of the people in the US departments of Housing and Urban Development and Health, Education, and Welfare, who are directly responsible for the millions of dollars that have gone into some of the public sector models, simulations, and games, really could not care less what those MSGs produced as long as they, the research sponsors, got credit for having been modern, management-oriented and scientific.
Brewer, 1975: 3
(…) close inspection (...) reveals a divergence of purpose between those who build and those who use MSGs having a policy assisting intent; users are inadequately trained to know what they are buying from technical experts; and this inadequacy also exists with respect to the experts knowing or caring about the users. What results are ill-developed controls over the building and use of MSGs because (1) the actual users do not know how the information contained in the model was generated; and (2) the experts responsible for the information contained in the model have abnegated responsibility for the products through disinterest, contempt, and ignorance.
Brewer, 1975: iii
(...) none of the goals held out for large scale models have been achieved, and there is little reason to expect anything different in the future (…) Methods for long range planning—whether they are called comprehensive planning, large scale systems simulation, or something else—need to change drastically, if planners expect to have any influence on the long run.
Lee, 1973: 16
(Gaming) is perhaps the ultimate comedown, as it means using the models as heuristic aids in the context of operational gaming. Players make decisions in the synthetic city, observe the consequences and make new decisions.
Lee, 1973: 25
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(Over)optimism of SG policy making?
Given the importance of models and simulations in public policy making, and the need to improve their effectiveness, the governmental and non-governmental model and simulation building communities should be striving to explore and build on other existing model-building practices. Some of the most interesting work being done is within the interactive entertainment industry.
Ben Sawyer, 2002:1
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Founding fathers of serious gaming
Johan Huizinga
Roger Cailliois
Clark Abt
Dick Duke
Johan Huizinga: ‘Homo Ludens’ (1938)
Man is playful
Playing is stepping into a ‘magic circle’ (suspension of belief)
Culture emerges out of play(fulness)
Characteristics of play in judicial system, science, military, etc.
Play is a serious matter (een ‘ernstige zaak’)
Caillois (1958)
Clark Abt: ‘Serious games’ (1968 / 1970)
War gaming for non-military purposes, like education and science
Dick Duke: Gaming - the futures language (1974)
Increasing complexity of real world systems, policy making, organizations and planning
Traditional communication cannot cope with complexity
New language = holistic / gestalt language
Gaming = holistic language of complexity.
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Propositiona
Democracy 2 www.positech.co.uk/democracy2/ Player screen
Causal model Energy Ville
1. A fairly simple game model can
communicate Real World complexity
2. While playing with a model,
students/professionals learn about the
underlying model of complexity!
3. Games are (represent) complex (multi-
actor) systems.
4. Through gaming we can learn to
understand (manage) a complex
system.
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Energy Water Industry
Sea ports Air ports Rail
Complex multi actor systems
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Systems thinking: The worldview of S&G
Factors:Real world systems are based on many variables that interact with each other in dynamic feedback relations leading to uncertainty (..) many variables can not be quantified and there exists no proven conceptual model or precedent to base decision and action.
Actors:The social political context (..) shows many actors that may be strategic or a-rational and finally there is a futures context in the sense that the decision is irrevocable and the results will not be understood well into the future
Dick Duke, 1980
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A satelite view
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Two forms of complexity
•Many interdependent, loosely coupled stakeholders (policy network)
•Scientific disagreement and conflicts•Disputed knowledge, values & norms•Dynamic rounds and arena’s (fluidity)
•Political compromises
•Stakeholder participation•Process management•Negotiated knowledge•Soft tools – learning, persuasion.
•Reductionist approach:•Linear (steps, phases) or cyclical
(iterative) decision making•Decision support & computer simulation
•Optimization, quantification•Reduction, simplification, abstraction
•Etc.
•Many interconnected and interdependent technical-physical variables and systems.
• Incomplete information•Uncertainty: cognitive, deep core, long term
•Quantification problems•Lack of proven scientific models•Etc… Technical
physical complexity
Management of technical
physical complexity
Social political complexity
Management of social political complexity
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Combining technical and political complexities
First, on the nature of the phenomena handled by planners, it is increasingly recognized that the evolution of the urban development process is an extraordinarily complex and dynamic activity. In simple terms, it involves both physical and social systems; here lies the heart of the problem, namely the simultaneous handling of “both types” of system as they evolve and interact. On the one hand the physical system is relatively simple to measure and represent as tangible elements are involved. The components of the social system, on the other hand, are not so convenient to handle, as volatile human behavior is very much involved.
Taylor, 1971: 85
These two conventional methods can usefully address some knowledge needs of global change issues, but are systematically ill-equipped to address others. To address the knowledge needs that are not well met by conventional methods, the paper argues for the use of a set of alternative methods, known by various names, including policy exercises, simulation gaming, and scenario exercises.
Parson, 1997: 267
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E
D
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B C
F
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Mental maps, values, perceptions,
interests, etc.
Mental maps,
values, perceptions,. interests, etc.
Mental maps, values, perceptions
interests, etc.
Mental maps, values, perceptions,
interests, etc.
Mental maps, values, perceptions,
interests, etc.
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Mental maps,
values, perceptions, interests, etc.
Mental maps,
values, perceptions, interests, etc.
Mental maps, values, perceptions,
interests, etc.
Mental maps, values, perceptions,
interests, etc.
Mental maps,Values, perceptions,
interests, etc.
Mental maps,
values, perceptions, interests, etc.
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E
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B C
F
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A B C+ -
E.g. Energy label for houses Insulation Energy consumption
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Requirements for intervention tools
1. Integrative.• Considers aspects,
levels, networks, sectors disciplines in a holistic , integrative and systemic
way.
2. Dynamic.• shows alternatives over
time.
3. Interactive.• Supports interaction,
negotiation among multiple stakeholders.
4. Transparent.• Not a black box for
stakeholders , but insightful relations.
5. Flexible & Reusable.
• Adaptable, repeatable for similar contexts;
modifiable to different contexts.
6. Communicative & educational.
• Conveys meaning and insights.
7. Authoritative.• validity, reliability,
verification / justification, falsification.
• timeliness, protecting core values.