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VegasInsider.com

Volume 30, Issue 2 September 3-7, 2015

COLLEGE FOOTBALL KICKOFF ISSUE!

Exclusive NCAA Football Over/Under Breakdown!

• ‘Betcha Didn’t Know’ Handicapping Article

• Awesome Angle & Tremendous Trends

• Incredible Stat of the Week

• Analysis on Every Lined Game

• Best Bets and Key Plays

• Full Schedule with Opening Lines

100% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE!

T R I V I A T E A S E R

This coach had won his season-opening game 21 years in a row – until suffering a rare defeat last season. In a win situation this week,

and 8-2 ATS when not favored by 20 or more points in season openers, who is this mad-as-hell-and-not-going-to-take-it-anymore coach?

For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 4

THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY

T R I V I A T E A S E R

2015 Amway Coaches Poll Preseason Top 25:1 OHIO ST2 TCU3 ALABAMA4 BAYLOR5 OREGON6 MICHIGAN ST7 AUBURN

8 FLORIDA ST9 GEORGIA10 USC11 NOTRE DAME12 CLEMSON13 LSU

14 UCLA15 MISSISSIPPI16 ARIZONA ST17 GA TECH18 WISCONSIN19 OKLAHOMA

20 ARKANSAS21 STANFORD22 ARIZONA23 MISSOURI24 BOISE ST25 TENNESSEE

page 2 • www.VegasInsider.com

ONE MORE TIME…IMPROVED DEFENSES

A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping

Marc Lawrence's

BETCHADIDN'TKNOW

PLAY ON any college football team in Game One through Four

in a conference game if they improved their defense by 100 or more yards last season from the previous year and are seeking

revenge from a loss in their last meeting versus today’s foe…

Improvement. No matter how it’s measured it still comes out the same. That’s because forward progress is

always preferred. No one ever likes taking a step backward – unless, of course, it’s from a fi ring squad.

One of a handicapper’s main priorities is measuring a team’s value. By discerning whether a team is improving or declining, we can ferret out any remaining benefi ts in making a case for our team. And because statistics don’t lie, the measure is easier to gauge as the season wears on.

The opening month of the season makes it extremely diffi cult to determine whether a team is ascending or descending. Without results or opponents to grade against, we are perilously shooting in the blind as we attempt to formulate any kind of reliable power rating throughout September.

What we can do, however, is to look

back on last year’s performance and weigh it against the previous year’s effort. Remembering that ‘improvement’ is the operative word, we can attempt to calculate whether a team actually improved or declined on the season.

Betterment can be determined in numerous manners. It can be measured either from an ATS (Against The Spread) and/or a SU (Straight-Up) aspect, or from a statistical view. When we look at a team statistically, we look to weigh offensive and defensive progress. To help guide us through the fi rst four games of the season, we will look to concentrate on teams who improved substantially on the defensive front last season. That’s because if we were to –

we would own a nifty 47-33-1 ATS winning mark since 1990. By putting our ‘improved defenses’ up against a quality opponent that managed 7 or more wins last season (the bigger they, are the harder they fall), they zoom to 33-14-1 ATS.

That’s a rock-solid 70% winning angle on its own. By making sure we are not outclassed in this matchup (team is either a favorite or a dog of 13 or less points), we improve to a super-sharp 27-5-1 ATS.

This year fi nds two FBS teams qualifying with 100-yard improved defenses, namely San Jose State and Temple. The Owls are a qualifying play against Cincinnati on next week’s card (9/12) while the Spartans qualify at home versus Fresno State on 9/26. And for what it’s worth, the two qualifying teams with 100-yard improved defenses last year were Baylor and Louisiana Tech, teams that were 20-7 SU and 18-7 ATS combined on the season.

In the meantime, Temple and San Jose State, you know what to do… do it to me one more time!

“Do that to me one more time… once is never enough…

Pass that by me one more time… once just isn’t enough

Tell it to me one more time… I can never hear enough…”

ATS W-L Record Since 1990:

7-0(100%)

RED-FACED BOWLERS

PLAY ON any college team in its season opener provided they are not a double-digit favorite

and they lost SU as a bowl favorite of 7 or more points

the previous season.

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

Play ON: ALABAMA (Saturday, 9/5)

2-MINUTE HANDICAP ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog

F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up

A QUICK CHECK OF STATS AND TRENDS INSIDE SELECT GAMES ON THIS WEEK’S CARD

College Football GamesAll results are ATS – Against The Spread – and most recent, unless noted otherwise.

Content contained in this report remains the exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™, PLAYBOOK.COM™ and PLAYBOOK.CUBE™, and may not be reused

or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.

The underdog is 31-6 ATS in Michigan’s road openers since 1978, including 7-0 ATS

in season-opening games.Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

www.VegasInsider.com • page 3

SMARTBOX

Thursday, September 3S Carolina 6-1 as favs 4 < pts… 6-1 as non-conf favs 14 < ptsN Carolina SERIES: 1-5 L6… 5-1 Weekdays… 2-5 bef BBB HG’s

Michigan 4-1 Game One… 8-3 as non-conf dogs < 13 ptsUTAH SERIES: 3-0 L3… 0-3 bef Utah St… 2-5 Game One

Tcu 1-4 as RF’s 13 > pts… 2-6 vs non-conf revengeMINNESOTA 7-0 w/ non-conf revenge… 6-0 L6 as DD HD’s

Utsa 2-0-1 as dogs 24 > pts… 6-1 away vs non-conf oppARIZONA 2-5 vs non-conf revenge… 2-5 as favs 28 > pts

Friday, September 4Baylor SERIES: 11-0 L11… 5-0 as RF’s 20 > pts… 4-0 Game OneSMU 0-3 Weekdays… 1-8 Game One… 1-7 in 1st of BB HG’s

Michigan St 3-0 as non-conf RF’s 10 > pts… 1-4 bef BBB HG’sW MICHIGAN 6-1 Weekdays… 1-6 as HD’s 10 > pts… 3-9 L12 vs Big 10

Washington SERIES: 3-0 L3… 0-3 Weekdays… 3-8 Game OneBOISE ST 3-1 home vs Pac 12… 1-3 bef BYU… 2-5 Weekdays

Saturday, September 5Virginia 1-6 bef BBB HG’s… 1-3 in 1st RGUCLA 9-3 home vs non-conf opp… 7-3 Game One

Stanford 3-1-1 Game One away… 1-3 L4 vs Big 10N’WESTERN 4-1 as non-conf HD’s 6 > pts… 8-2 Game One

Louisville 6-1 as non-conf dogs 7 > pts… 4-1 as dogs vs SECAuburn 0-6 L6 vs ACC… 1-4 Game One… 2-6 neutral site favs

Arizona St 0-2 at neutral sites… 1-4 as non-conf dogs < 13 ptsTexas A&M 4-1 away bef BB HG’s… 1-4 L5 vs Pac-12

Byu 9-2 as non-conf dogs < 9 pts… 12-3 Game OneNEBRASKA 8-1-1 Game One… 5-2 L7 non-conf HG’s

Bowl Green 7-1 Game One… 1-4 as dogs in 1st of BB RG’sTennessee 5-2 bef BB HG’s… 0-4 as non-conf favs > 14 pts

Utep 0-7 L7 vs SEC… 1-6 as RD’s 24 > ptsARKANSAS 4-1 in 1st of BB HG’s… 3-1-1 as non-conf HFs 31 > pts

Texas 15-0 SU Game One… 2-5 as non-conf dogs 6 > pts NOTRE DAME 1-3 L4 vs Big 12… 4-10 as HF’s 10 < pts

Wisconsin 1-4 bef BBB HG’s… 1-3 L4 at neutral sitesAlabama 4-0 as non-conf favs 14 < pts… 4-0 L4 vs Big 10

Arkansas St 6-1 as non-conf dogs 24 > pts… 6-2 away before BB HG’sUSC 0-4 as non-conf favs 24 > pts… 1-3 in 1st of 3+ HG’s

Monday, September 7Ohio St 14-1 L15 w/ revenge… 4-1 away bef BBB HG’sVA TECH 1-5-1 vs non-conf revenge…2-5 in 1st of BB HG’s

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

The underdog is 31-6 ATS in Michigan’s road openers since 1978, including 7-0 ATS

in season-opening games.Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

SEPTEMBER SIX

NOTE: Next week’s PLAYBOOK (issue #3) will include a complete slate of NFL writeups and will be available after 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, 9/8.

Opening week of a new football season is like the proverbial box of chocolates: you never know what you’re going to get. If you agree, then why not cautiously

wade into battle by backing teams led by head coaches who are proven winners in season-opening contests? Any coach can run up a gaudy SU record playing FCS foes in Game One of a new season. Troy Calhoun of Air Force, for example, has NEVER played a lined game to open the season in eight years (he’s set to make it nine straight with Morgan State on 9/5).

With that mind, we opened our 2015 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide Magazine and listed every head coach who has been with his current program for at least two seasons, plus the team’s ATS win-loss record against lined opponents in Game One. Then we eliminated the coaches who did not have at least two results in such games. Finally, we checked the Week One schedules on each team page to see if there were any valid plays – and here’s what we got (current lines courtesy of SportsOptions.com):

DATE TEAMS AND ATS W-L9/3 (3-0) HAWAII (+7.5) over Colorado (1-1)9/3 (2-0) Utsa (+31.5) over ARIZONA (1-1)9/5 (3-1) Miss State (-21) over SOUTHERN MISS (0-2)9/5 (5-2) NORTHWESTERN (+11.5) over Stanford (1-2)9/6 (1-1) Purdue (+7.5) over MARSHALL (1-3)9/7 (2-1) Ohio State (-11) over VA TECH (1-6 L10 yrs)

We also found three quality head coaches – Mike Gundy, Art Briles and Nick Saban – with strong season-opener numbers who will take on teams led by a new head coach and staff:

9/3 (5-2) Oklahoma State (-24.5) over C MICHIGAN 9/4 (4-1) Baylor (-35.5) over SMU9/5 (6-1) Alabama (-10.5) over Wisconsin

Since road favorites aren’t exactly our cup of tea, we’ll be keeping a closer eye on the four underdogs shown above to see if the coaches involved play to form – and cash a season-opening ticket!

This material was taken from the ‘Football Fact Of The Day’ on the Playbook.com website and ‘ATS Fast Facts’ on the all-new Playbook CUBE app.

• www.VegasInsider.com

Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 6 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line

Seared Bison On The Menu For Thursday Night Luau...Bucky Heads For Higher Ground As The Tide Rolls In...

2015 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE

Thursday, September 3

GAME OF THE WEEKUPSETUPSET UPSETUPSET

Michigan over UTAH by 6 After posting only one outstanding season in the seven years since head coach Lloyd Carr left the program, the Wolverines are no longer a serious threat to win the Big Ten championship, much less mount a challenge for national honors. Desperate to restore the luster to college football’s all-time winningest program, the Michigan brass reached out to a favorite son, and thus the Jim Harbaugh era begins for UM. Consider this from our well oiled machine: while at Stanford, Harbaugh was 3-1 SUATS in road openers, including a SU win at USC as a 39.5-point dog (not a misprint) in his debut season with the Cardinal. While we’re not keen on new coaches in season-opening games, we’re also not all that keen on Utah this campaign. The Utes bring name and reputation into this contest but the fact is they have struggled since joining the Pac-12, out-gained in 35 of their last 50 games while allowing more yards than they have gained each of the last four seasons. We realize the Wolves are riding a 2-7 SU and 0-9 ATS overall mark against Pac-12 foes, and that only three FBS teams were worse than Michigan in net TO’s (-16 last season), but those are just two of the reasons why ‘The Jaw’ was lured back to Ann Arbor. Utah upset UM, 26-10, at the Big House last season – despite being out-gained, 308-286 – and with the Utes just 1-5 ATS as chalk before facing rival Utah State and 1-4-1 ATS in lined home openers, a payback looks to be in order today. From a fundamental handicapping standpoint, the Maize-and-Blue returns nine starters from a defense that ranked 10th overall in yards per game last season. From a trend standpoint, our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3 provides The Clincher: The underdog is 31-6 ATS in Michigan’s road openers since 1978, including 7-0 ATS in season-opening games.

South Carolina over North Carolina by 8 While we wholeheartedly agree with 1920’s songwriter Gus Kahn that ‘nothing could be fi ner than to be in Carolina’ for the kickoff of the 2015 NCAA football season, our second verse would vary slightly and go something like this: “Nothing could be sweeter than to ride Playbook’s TRIVIA TEASER if you hate mourning.” And we’ll do just that tonight in Charlotte as the Ol’ Ball Coach himself, Steve Spurrier, answers the bell on page 2 with that well-prepared 21-1 SU mark in NCAA season openers since 1990. Spurrier is also 8-2 SUATS in his last 10 contests versus ACC opposition, including a 27-10 win (and cover) over the Tar Heels in the 2013 season lid-lifter. Now while we don’t expect the ‘Cocks’ suspect defense to completely shut down a UNC squad that returns 10 starters from an offense that averaged over 33 PPG last season, the addition of defensive coordinator Jon Hoke (brother of Brady) – along with the return of nine starters – gives hope for a much-needed defensive turnaround as the Gamecocks were torched for 30 PPG in 2014 (“We can’t get much worse,” grumbled Spurrier when asked about last year’s stop-unit). The Heels had even bigger problems on ‘D’ last year, allowing just under 40 points per contest, so they turn to former Auburn head coach, Gene Chizik, as well as seven returning starters, to plug the leaks. Though Chizik was 2-0 SUATS against the Gamecocks while roaming the Tigers’ sidelines, we still can’t overlook the fact that UNC head coach Larry Fedora is 1-6 ATS in the fi rst lined game of the season and 0-3 ATS versus the SEC – with every loss coming by 14 or more points. Hence, we’ll favor the pedigree of a hungry SEC team over an ACC wannabe in this battle of Carolina border rivals. A must lay… in the evening.

UCF over Florida International by 11Now in his 12th year as head coach at Central Florida, George O’Leary normally plays at least six freshmen in his rotation each season. This year, however, the number fi gures to rise dramatically due to the high rate of attrition of veteran players at key positions from last season’s team. “There’s a lot of raw talent here, especially from the young guys,” said just-turned 20-year old junior CB D.J. Klings. The Knights should also benefi t from the return of QB Justin Holman, RB William Stanback and four starters on the O-line. But our guess is next week’s showdown with Stanford ranks higher on UCF’s priority list than do the lowly Panthers. In Ron Turner’s two years with Florida International, his squad has been out-yarded in 22 of its 24 games. FIU’s two victims? Wagner (last year) and a Southern Miss squad in 2013 that was 1-27 in the previous 28 games entering its contest with the Panthers. Ouch! Turner certainly remembers the last meeting between these two clubs: in his FIU home debut two years ago in Miami, UCF dominated the Panthers in a 38-0 shutout. Based on that outcome, the current line of UCF -16.5 looks enticing – especially when we get a gander at the Knights’ golden 9-0 ATS mark as weekday favorites of 27 or less points. Still, the seemingly pushover Panthers fi nished 2014 with the nation’s most improved scoring offense, increasing from 9.8 to 23.0 PPG, plus they return 15 starters, including three linemen on both sides of the ball. And with next week’s trip to California looming on the horizon for UCF, expect O’Leary and company to keep more than a few things under wraps tonight. Knights prevail but fail to get the money.

Oklahoma St over C MICHIGAN by 27If the old sports adage that players make their greatest strides from their fi rst year to the second year is true, look for vast improvement from Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State team this campaign. The Cowboys fi elded the least experienced team in the nation last year but the new kids on the block fi nished the 2014 season with a fl urry, posting straight-up underdog victories over Oklahoma (+19.5) and Washington (bowl). With 19 starters back – and Gundy touting this season’s defensive unit as one of his best ever – they look to be a promising proposition to backers in 2015. As for tonight’s matchup, our mean machine points out that double-digit dogs with new head coaches are just 4-108 SU since 1990, including 0-21 SU and 7-14 ATS when debuting at home (1-5 ATS +21 or more points). With

history like that to overcome, fi rst-year CMU coach John Bonamego might as well mail it in here and prepare instead for next week’s meeting with not-so-mighty Monmouth. Yes, we realize the Chippewas have won their home openers each of the last eight years in a row, but the last seven came against the likes of Chattanooga, New Hampshire, SE Missouri State, South Carolina State, Hampton, Alcorn State and Eastern Illinois. Yikes! As much as we love home dogs, CMU’s recent 1-6 ATS run as a double-digit dog at Mount Pleasant means we’ll keep this one leashed and confi ned to its house. And like all Big 12 teams with an eye on an eventual playoff spot, the Pokes know they not only have to win each week but win BIG – starting here.

VANDERBILT over W Kentucky by 6Move over, Thundering Herd… there’s a new ‘Marshall’ in town this season. Western Kentucky, who ruined the Herd’s chance at an unbeaten regular season and possible playoff appearance with last year’s shocking 67-66 win at Huntington, broke or tied 50 individual and team records in 2014. Led by shining star QB Brandon Doughty and 1,500-yard RB Leon Allen, the Hilltoppers amassed 6,672 total yards of offense last season – the most in NCAA history – and they appear loaded again in 2015. Hilltopper hysteria has also grabbed hold of the betting public, who pounded this game from the opening line of Vandy -2.5 to WKU -2.5. But as much fun as it is to latch onto the next big thing, we have a real problem with backing a C-USA team as a road favorite over an SEC school! Sure, the Commodores slipped from nine wins to three last season, due largely to the fact that 26 players made their fi rst FBS start (most in the nation). But a Vanderbilt rushing attack that managed only 109 YPG last season should be re-energized by the arrival of new OC Andy Ludwig, who comes from Wisconsin with 26 years of experience where he directed the Badgers to record-book production the last two seasons. The return of 13 of the team’s top 14 tacklers on defense should also pay major dividends tonight in Nashville. Maybe WKU head coach Jeff Brohm will continue to attract attention from larger programs as the year unfolds but tonight we’ll stick with the home-dog Commies in a mild upset.

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a

strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.(continued on next page)


Tcu over MINNESOTA by 7So the question begs: how long does that giant chip remain on the Frogs’ shoulder-legs following last year’s slap in the face by the College Playoffs committee? You remember: with one week remaining in the regular season, TCU was third in the playoff rankings and the Froggies looked to remain there after routing Iowa State, 55-3, in their fi nal game. But with no Big 12 Championship contest to further pad its resumé, TCU fell out of the Final Four when Ohio State won the Big Ten by crushing Wisconsin, 59-0, and leap-frogged the boys from Fort Worth. One year later, with a whopping 62 lettermen back, including 17 returning starters (10 on offense), head coach Gary Patterson hopes the chip remains fi rmly attached all season long. The problem here is the Frogs were a 10-2 spread team in 2014 and with everyone jumping on board for a ride this season, the weight fi gures to get a tad too heavy for our liking. Jerry Kill’s Gophers are another team similar to Utah in that they have been to six bowl games since 2006 and were out-gained every one of those years, including last season. Such smoke-and-mirrors results make it diffi cult to snap the rubber band here, though our database refutes the notion, espousing this mighty Minny stat: 17-3 SU and 10-3 ATS in home openers since 1995, with the three losses by a combined total of 11 points – while scoring an average 40 PPG in these games, If that’s not enough, the Golden Gang is 6-0 ATS the last six as double-digit home dogs and 7-0 ATS when seeking revenge in non-conference games! The Frogs hammered Minnesota at home last season, 30-7, but that lop-sided result was largely due to the Gophers committing fi ve costly turnovers. With TCU’s Patterson just 7-14 ATS as road chalk of -14 or more points, including 2-11 ATS before Game Nine of the season, and the Frogs just 3-9 ATS in weekday affairs, we say take it or leave it in this Thursday night barn-burner at Minneapolis.

Duke over TULANE by 11 We’re sure Coach ‘C’ won’t be confused with Coach ‘K’ anytime soon around the Durham area but David Cutcliffe has the Blue Devils off three straight bowl games for the fi rst time in school history. Yes, quarterback Anthony Boone must be replaced but Cutcliffe is looked upon as a QB whisperer in these parts, having mentored the likes of both Peyton and Eli Manning. Though we’re a bit leery of his 4-8-2 ATS log in road openers, his 4-0 SU career record over the Wave (including 47-13 LY) – along with Tulane’s 7-16 ATS mark in home openers – throws less caution to the wind, especially considering the Green Wave took a step back last season. And that’s not to forget Duke’s 2-0 SUATS mark in this series by an average winning score of 48-20. However, Curtis Johnson’s crew is not so ‘Green’ in the returning-starter department, with 16 starters back, including seven from a defense that ranked No. 2 in the nation in red-zone effi ciency. Still, we’ll give a slight lean to the Du’K’ies, or in this case the Du’C’ies, as there’ll be no look-ahead with NC Central next up on the docket. Slight lean to the Devils.

Ohio U over IDAHO by 1 It appears Ohio HC Frank Solich may be on the hot seat as the Bobcats have regressed each of the last three years and failed to go bowling for the fi rst time in six seasons in 2014. And Solich’s buns aren’t the only things on fi re in Athens as the Bobbies are a money-burning 5-10-1 ATS over their last 17 contests. Much of that can be attributed to a rash of injuries the ‘Cats suffered last season but Solich will have no excuses this year as he welcomes back 17 starters, including the ENTIRE offensive line. That should be the difference tonight in Moscow, though we’re not about to lay double-digits on the road… not even against an Idaho squad that is coming off three straight one-win seasons! Talk about the proverbial hot seat: Vandals’ boss Paul Petrino must be squatting over a furnace while dialing up JUCO’s at a maddening pace. However, keep this in mind: despite the lone victory, the Spuds did make major strides on both sides of the ball in 2014, improving 51 YPG on offense and 66 YPG on ‘D’. And the return of star WR Dezmon Epps (suspended for drunken driving last season) should be a big boost for an attack that has improved signifi cantly each of the last three seasons. Thus, we’ll bob for potatoes tonight in the Kibbie Dome.

ARIZONA over Utsa by 27Recommending the Roadrunners tonight in Tucson could prove to be dangerous. After all, it’s the 22nd-ranked Wildcats – and not Wile E. Coyote – providing the opposition. However, our ‘wily’ SMART BOX suggests Larry’s Coker’s crew should avoid the ACME, err Arizona, bombs and deliver the cover. In fact, not only has UTSA brought home the bacon in its three openers as an FBS member, it has won all three games in straight-

up fashion, including a 27-7 win last season at Houston as 8-point dogs. Granted, the SU win won’t happen tonight but the Roadrunners’ 2-0-1 ATS log as dogs of 24 or more points – and 6-1 ATS mark away versus non-conference opposition – should keep Rich Rod on alert, especially since his ‘Cats are 2-5 ATS of late versus non-conference foes and 2-5 ATS as chalk of 28 or more points. In fact, our only hesitation in snapping the ‘Giant Rubber Band’ comes courtesy of ‘Zona’s 4-0 ATS mark as Game One favorites of 17 or more points and 5-2 ATS record in weekday home games. Yes, for once the Roadrunners may not leave the desert unscathed but they should get away with the loot. Take it or leave it.

5� BEST BET

With 16 returning starters from both an offense and defense that improved in 2014 (despite winning two less games), the Buffs may very well keep third-year head coach Mike MacIntyre out of the fi re. However, we still can’t trust them laying wood in a game that will kick off at 11:00 PM back home in Boulder. Not when they’re 0-7 ATS in their last seven attempts as non-conference road chalk, 5-0 ATS in their last fi ve lined home openers and currently at the top of our SMART BOX don’t-play list. Making matters worse for Ralphie is the fact that USC QB transfer Max Wittek makes his Warrior debut, which is about as big as it gets on the Island. If you’re still uneasy about backing a Hawaii squad that has looked like it’s been playing in grass skirts since the days of Bryant Moniz, chew on this: in Norm Chow’s fi rst year in Hawaii in 2013, the Warriors’ nine losses were by an average of 31.1 PPG. Setbacks the past two seasons have been by an average of 11.4 PPG, marking a nearly 20 PPG improvement. That has us drooling over the home dogs along with this savory CLINCHER: Colorado is 5-43 SU in its last 48 games as a visitor, with only ONE WIN coming by more than 5 points.

HAWAII over Colorado by 7

Friday, September 4Baylor over SMU by 39

Time to renew the discussion about powerhouse spread offenses that score a gazillion points per game: is it the quarterback or the system that matters most? After watching QB Bryce Petty dissect opposing defenses for the last two seasons – the Bears averaged 50 PPG with Petty calling signals – Baylor fans are hoping new QB Seth Russell won’t miss a beat when he takes over Art Briles’ non-stop attack machine. Good news: Russell was the MVP at the recent Manning QB Academy, so his transition to new offensive leader should not be a concern for Briles. As we called out in the Oklahoma State-Central Michigan write-up on Thursday, new SMU head coach Chad Morris fully realizes this is little more than a scrimmage for Baylor given the fact that double-digit dogs are just 4-108 SU with new mentors since 1990, including 0-21 SU and 7-14 ATS when starting their tenure at home. At least Morris will be welcomed in Dallas after former SMU head coach June Jones resigned after just two games in 2014 and the Mustangs barely avoided a winless season by upsetting UConn the fi nal week of the season. A check of the ATS history books points out the lop-sided nature of tonight’s matchup. Baylor has cashed fi ve straight tickets as road chalk of 20 or more points, gone 4-0 ATS of late in lined Game One contests and posted a 5-1 ATS mark in weekday games. On the fl ip side, the Ponies are 0-7 ATS when playing with non-conference revenge (lost 45-0 to Baylor LY), 1-8 ATS in Game One and 1-7 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back home games. Look, you won’t normally fi nd us backing big road chalk but at the insistence of the SMART BOX – and the fact that the Bears are on an 11-0 ATS run against SMU – and 5-0 ATS as road chalk of 20 or more points – we’re making an exception here. Get the scoreboard ready…

GEORGIA ST over Charlotte by 10So how bad does a team have to be to open as a 4-point underdog to a squad that’s won only ONE GAME in the past two seasons? Considering the public looked at that opening spot and quickly drove the number to

Marc Lawrence’s award-winning football selections are available all season long at:

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+8, we’d say pretty darn bad! Meet the latest team to make the jump to the big board, the Charlotte 49ers, who take on Georgia State in their FBS debut. Don’t read too much into the Niners’ 10-12 SU record over the past two seasons: the bulk of those wins came over teams that largely looked past them as a start-up squad. All fi ve of their wins in 2014 were against either NAIA programs or three of the bottom 125 FCS teams. And when we learned that Charlotte was out-gained by Elon, Charleston Southern, Gardner-Webb, The Citadel, James Madison, Coastal Carolina and Wesley College last year… well, let’s just say we wouldn’t touch the 49ers with a 10-foot pole here tonight. In a strange case of coincidence, GSU head coach Trent Miles fi nds himself in a role almost identical to the one he was in at Indiana State: 1-22 after two years with ISU; now 1-23 SU after fi rst two years with the Panthers (FYI: he went on to lead the Sycamores to three consecutive winning seasons). Should Georgia State win outright, it will mark the program’s fi rst FBS win, and our database provides support by noting that season-opening favorites of 4 or more points are 7-4-1 ATS since 1984. Word is the 49ers will dedicate this game to Offensive Line Coach Phil Ratliff, who died of a heart attack on August 9th at the age of 44. But the reality of moving up to the big-time – and playing its fi rst game in a dome stadium – will be too much for Charlotte to overcome.

Michigan St over W MICHIGAN by 14With Sparty on a 24-3 SU run the past two seasons, and a preseason No. 6 ranking to kick off 2015, Michigan State should have no trouble covering the 18-point line against a MAC team, right? Western Michigan has lost all eight meetings on the scoreboard with MSU since 1980 and the visitors currently ride a 3-0 ATS streak as non-conference road favorites of 10 or more points. But as Lee Corso might say, “Not so fast, my friend.” The Spartans will be making the trek to Kalamazoo for the fi rst time in series history, and in their last 19 road openers, Michigan State has won only ONE game by more than 17 points! Thanks to signing the best recruiting class in the MAC, 34-year old P.J. Fleck took the Broncos from a one-win season in 2013 to eight wins and a bowl appearance last year. Fleck sure has a tough row to hoe to open the new season, tackling the Spartans, Georgia Southern and Ohio State in September, a gauntlet that will toughen them considerably before conference play starts in October. WMU’s ATS numbers are not encouraging – 1-7 ATS in season openers, 1-6 ATS as home dogs of 10 or more points and 3-9 ATS the last 12 versus Big Ten foes – but with 16 returning starters, including nine on offense, we fi nd ourselves in a ‘take it or leave it’ state of mind. And as we mentioned in Michigan State’s team writeup in the 2015 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide Magazine, this will be the fi rst time ever that Spartans HC Mark Dantonio walks the sidelines without former DC (and new Pitt HC) Pat Narduzzi as a member of his coaching staff. With mega-revenge against Oregon on deck for Michigan State, we prefer to ride with the Broncos here.

ILLINOIS over Kent St by 6Well, we didn’t see this coming. And apparently neither did Illinois HC Tim Beckman. One minute he’s at practice trying to motivate the good-for-nothings that have sabotaged his Big Ten career and the next he’s being called to the offi ce and presented a pink slip for “failing to protect players and foster their success on and off the fi eld.” Translation: Beckman pressured injured players to stay on the fi eld while often giving them misleading information about their medical condition (he declared the accusations to be “utterly false” and has threatened legal action). All this may not sound like much but when added to the dead weight of Beckman’s 12-25 SU mark (4-20 in Big Ten play), the fi ndings of an internal investigation left AD Mike Thomas little choice but to send his head coach packing. Fortunately for the Illini, OC Bill Cubit moves into the interim coach spot. Cubit spent seven seasons as head man at Western Michigan and compiled a 36-27 record with the Broncos while leading them to three bowl appearances (2-0 as chalk versus Kent State). The problem here is the Illini’s woes go well beyond who’s leading the team. Yes, well-traveled QB Wes Lunt is back but star WR Mike Dudek tore his ACL in spring practice and is out until at least October. This is just the fi rst of a cushy 7-game home slate this season but it can’t mask the fact that the Illinois defense has been in rapid decline since Beckman arrived in 2012. Enter today’s Game One sacrifi cial lamb, Kent State, an opponent hand-picked for its dreadful 0-7 SUATS mark versus the Big Ten since 2004, outscored 304-24 – including 100-0 the last two years! But you know something? Ugly stats lead to ugly dogs, and we like the looks of this hungry canine. KSU returns 16 starters, including the best linebacking corps in the MAC, from a squad that cashed each of its fi nal three games last season. And head coach Paul Haynes, who

coached in the Big Ten with Michigan State and Ohio State from 2003-2011, knows his team can at least be competitive with a bottom-feeder like Illinois. Hey, we liked the Flashes and the points BEFORE Beckman got the boot… so this BUD (Big Ugly Dog) is for you! The Illini may get the SU win but they’ll likely fall to 5-10 ATS as double-digit non-conference chalk here tonight.

BOISE ST over Washington by 3We wonder what’s going through Washington HC Chris Petersen’s mind right now. For eight seasons, he called the shots at Boise State and compiled an incredible 92-12 SU mark before leaving last year to take over for Steve Sarkisian at Seattle. But after a not-so-Petersen-like 8-6 debut at U-Dub, the head Husky fi nds himself back on the blue turf at Boise to start the new campaign – as a double-digit underdog! Okay, we’ll admit that Petersen’s replacement, former BSU alum Bryan Harsin, did an outstanding job in his rookie season, leading the Broncos to a 12-2 record that included a 38-30 win over Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. But some key pieces to that puzzle are gone now: QB Grant Hedrick is in the CFL, RB Jay Ajayi plays for the Miami Dolphins and Offensive Coordinator Mike Sanford has moved on to Notre Dame. Sophomore QB Ryan Finley won a four-way race to earn starting honors but we think he’ll be hard-pressed to improve Boise’s 8-13 SU record against Pac-12 opponents. The Huskies have covered three straight in this series and coach Petersen owns a 12-6 ATS career record as an underdog, including 7-1 ATS when taking 7 or more points. And if anyone can point out the quirks of Albertsons Stadium to a group of players that have never set foot on the blue turf, it’s Petersen. Remember, the Huskies came this-close to qualifying as a RED-FACED BOWLER (see AWESOME ANGLE on page 2) when they lost as 6.5-point chalk to Oklahoma State in last year’s Cactus Bowl. All things considered, we’ll take the points with Washington and a man who should one day be immortalized in bronze at the entrance to one of college football’s most unique venues.

Saturday, September 5E MICHIGAN over Old Dominion by 3

Hey, if this pick doesn’t land us on Eagle Nation’s Christmas list, we don’t know what will! After two years of building a team from the ground up, head coach Bobby Wilder enters his seventh season on the Old Dominion sidelines. But this year he’ll have to compete without the services of 4-year star QB Taylor Heinicke – a major hit for such a small program. So our question is this – how does a Monarchs team with only one FBS road victory by more than 3 points (at Idaho) in nine tries warrant an appearance as 7-point chalk? We don’t think it happens here, not with ODU 0-3 ATS in its FBS history as a favorite, and Wilder planning to slow down the game so he can get Heinicke’s replacement at QB (likely to be redshirt freshman Shuler Bentley) settled in. That task may not be so easy considering Eastern Michigan owns arguably the best defense in the MAC. The Eagles also cashed handily in their fi rst two tries as home dogs last year (won SU over Buffalo as a 14.5 point dog) before injuries ravaged the team during the last half of the season. And here’s a truly incredible stat for a team that’s gone 6-30 SU the last three years: EMU allowed a combined 22 points during the 3rd quarter of play over the last seven games of the 2014 campaign. Time to grab the nose plugs or the clothespin – we’re fl ying like an Eagle on the new season’s fi rst Saturday.

FLORIDA over New Mexico St by 31So how bad did Florida want rid of former HC Will Muschamp? Enough to buy out Jim McElwain’s contract at Colorado State for $5 million cash, plus $2 million for a single CSU game at Florida in the future – the largest buyout in college football history according to ESPN’s Joe Schad. Unfortunately for Gator fans looking for a quick fi x, McElwain inherits an offensive line, a running game, and a receiving game in different states of disarray. UF had the third-most players (8) of all college teams drafted this year, including four of Florida’s starting offensive linemen. RB Adam Lane, the MVP in last year’s Birmingham Bowl win, has left the team for family reasons and the WR’s were not on the same page with highly-recruited QB’s Will Grier and Treon Harris during spring practice. As if that’s not enough, the team suspended three players – including starters DE Alex McAlister and S Marcus May – for disciplinary reasons for this game. McElwain insists he’s ”never been one of this those to worry about who’s not there” but when your squad is laying 37 points on opening weekend, a little concern seems to be in order! Granted, we’re not about to give you a lengthy sales pitch for the Aggies, not when they’ve gone 10-23 ATS the last three seasons. But NMSU coach Doug Martin is in his third year at Las Cruces and fi elds the deepest team in his tenure (80 scholarship players), including six players on an experienced offensive line (90 career starts). Which is just our way of saying we can’t lay points with wobbly chalk looking to identify a new personality…

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a

strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

(continued on next page)


3� BEST BET

We’re caught in a bit of a conundrum here as we feel by season’s end each of these two teams will be vastly improved over last year’s editions. However, we have the Owls projected as the Surprise Team of the Year so we’ll open the campaign with them as a 3* BEST BET. A whopping 19 returning starters dot the roster, including all 11 from a stop-unit that ranked in the Top 25 nationally in many defensive categories. Most of all, though, after Temple became bowl-eligible with a heart-stopping win over Tulane in last season’s fi nal game – then failed to receive a bid – “Leave No Doubt” has become the Owls’ new motto, and they are 100% driven to become a bowl squad. Meanwhile, many a pundit has tabbed Penn State to be this year’s Big Ten sleeper after the Lions fi elded the second-best defense in the land (279 YPG) and were awarded a 2015 schedule that will not see them leave the state of Pennsylvania until a trip to Columbus on October 17. PSU defeated the Owls, 30-13, in Happy Valley last year and with a 5-game home stand waiting on deck, a win here would put them on easy street to start the season. But covering the 7-point spot? Maybe not, says our all-knowing database: the Lions are just 1-6 ATS as single-digit favorites in their fi rst road game and 1-3 SUATS in their last four away versus revenge-seeking foes. Equally troubling is second-year head coach James Franklin’s 1-3 SUATS mark in road openers. Hey, we like the Lions this season, just not here today against a vengeful squad that opened the 2014 campaign by beating an SEC team for the fi rst time in 75 years (blasted Vandy, 37-7). But if Marc’s BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2 just isn’t enough, there’s always The Clincher: The Owls are 16-4 ATS as home dogs with revenge, including 9-0 ATS in Games One thru Five.

TEMPLE over Penn St by 6

TULSA over Florida Atlantic by 3Here’s a real head-scratcher: Tulsa, a 5-19 SU and 8-16 ATS team over the past two years, laying 6 points to Florida Atlantic in the Golden Hurricane’s season opener. WTF? We realize that Tulsa returns 16 starters, including QB Dane Evans (3,102 yards last season) and top WR Keenan Lewis (101 receptions and 1,219 yards), but these guys won only two games in 2014, a 7-point decision over Tulane (3-9) and a 10-point win over SMU (1-11). The Hurricane also welcome a new head coach, and even though it’s Phil Montgomery, former QB coach at Baylor with Art Briles, he’s still a newbie and his team will be learning a new system under a new staff. As for FAU, last year’s squad took a tip from the team’s mascot, Owlsley the burrowing owl, and regressed on both sides of the ball under rookie head coach Charlie Partridge. Fortunately for this latest incarnation of the Partridge Family, triple-threat QB Jaquez Johnson (led the team in rushing and passing yardage in 2014) is back, and six 3-star newcomers will be taking up residence in Boca Raton. Not much ATS history surrounding this matchup but the world’s most powerful database delivers once again with this little gem: the dog was 10-0 ATS in the Florida Atlantic’s fi nal ten games last season. Simply put, Tulsa’s prospects for rebounding in 2015 are good but a 487-yard defense and a rookie head coach makes them major fade material today.

UCLA over Virginia by 24It’s become an annual event in Charlottesville: Virginia head coach Mike London begins the new season on a new hot seat. That’s what happens when you’ve had only ONE winning effort in fi ve years, and frankly we’re wondering how this guy wasn’t drop-kicked all the way to I-81 after slogging to his third consecutive losing campaign last season. To make matters worse – and yes, they can always get worse – the Cavs will face only one opponent in 2015 with a losing record that was NOT in a bowl game last season! We realize the UVA defense showed considerable improvement under DC Jon Tenuta in 2014, but London’s 0-4 SU mark versus Pac-12 foes – with the average loss by 25.7 PPG – prompts us to look the other way here. And why not? As we’ve come to expect since the arrival of Jim Mora at UCLA, this team is loaded – 18 starters return, including 10 on offense and all fi ve offensive linemen, with 239 returning starts back (the most in the Pac-12). Yes, the Bruins will have to break in a new QB to replace the departed Brett Hundley but a full complement of O-linemen and budding superstar RB Paul Perkins should make the transition less painful. UCLA also holds all the ATS cards in this matchup, going 9-3 ATS at the Rose Bowl when taking on non-conference foes and 7-3 ATS in season openers. The Wahoos limp into town with a 1-6 ATS record before playing a 3-game home stand, plus they’re just 1-3 ATS of late in their fi rst road game of the year. The price is by no means cheap but we say “Bruins or bust” if you decide to get involved.

Stanford over NORTHWESTERN by 6 Despite owning the third best defense in the land last year, the Cardinal enter 2015 off a disappointing 8-5 campaign (all fi ve losses were at the hands of ranked opponents) and many (including us) look for a major rebound this season as QB Kevin Hogan and his 32 starts return off the best season of his career. However, the problem with laying the road lumber tonight in Evanston is Stanford’s 0-3 ATS mark in road openers the last three seasons and 1-3 ATS log against the Big Ten of late. Even our SMART BOX sides with the hosts in what could be deemed the Brainiac Bowl. And when you toss in the fact that the Wildcats come armed with a bevy of returning letterman (62, tops in the conference), you can see why another nail-biter could be in store (the ‘Cats have lost FIVE contests on the fi nal play of the game dating back to 2012) under the Ryan Field lights. Adding fuel to the host’s fi re is a 4-1 ATS log as non-conference home dogs of 6 or more points and an 8-2 ATS mark in Game One. And remember this: the last three times that Northwestern failed to go bowling in successive years, they earned a bowl bid the following season. Now that was a rather SMART analysis, if we do say so ourselves! You know what to do.

Auburn over Louisville by 8 A lot of sharp handicappers at the Westgate SuperContest seminar in Las Vegas this year expect the Cardinals to have a big season – starting tonight in the Georgia Dome. And we can see why: Louie is 3-0 ATS in Game One of the season, 6-1 ATS as a non-conference dog of 7 or more points and 4-1 ATS as pups versus the SEC. Meanwhile, double-digit favorite Aubbie is a brutal 0-6 ATS in its last six against ACC opposition, 1-4 ATS in Game One’s and 2-6 ATS as neutral-site favorites. Complicating matters is the fact that Auburn’s leading receiver, D’haquille “Duke” Williams (you’d call yourself Duke, too, if your mother named you D’haquille), is at the bottom of the depth chart after serving a seven-day suspension for disciplinary reasons. So why isn’t Bobby Petrino and his 86-14 SU record in games in which his team scores at least 20 points (courtesy of the 2015 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide) bolded and underlined, you ask? Well, as outlined in this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2, the Tigers are oh-so-close to qualifying as a RED-FACED BOWLER (lost SU to Wisky as 6.5-point chalk in last year’s Outback Bowl). That alone keeps us at bay tonight in Hotlanta. However, since Vegas knows best, well lean slightly to Petrino’s defensive dogs.

Texas A&M over Arizona St by 10 Tonight’s battle at NRG Stadium in Houston (home of the Texans) is about as ‘neutral’ as a shill in a three-card monte game. While the Sun Devils travel almost 1,200 miles for this non-conference clash, the Aggies’ trek down US-290 West is less than 100 miles. That’s not a good sign for an ASU team that is already 0-2 in its last two neutral venues and 1-4 ATS as non-conference dogs of less than 13 points. And though the Devils have improved record-wise every season under 4th-year HC Todd Graham, both the offense and defense declined in scoring AND total yards. History – if you follow PLAYBOOK – tells us that’s a sure sign for reversal of fortune the following campaign! That doesn’t appear to be the case in Aggie-land. A&M looks to be primed to breakout after slipping each of the past two seasons with 15 starters, including QB Kyle Allen, returning to appropriately named Kyle Feld. The addition of a pair of new coordinators (Dave Christensen on offense and John Chavis, former LSU DC, on defense) can only help. So step right up and lay the small number as the Aggies improve to 5-1 ATS away before back-to-back home games.

NEBRASKA over Byu by 8Though we’re big fans of new Nebraska boss Mike Riley, head coaches in debut games are notable money-burners and that will most likely keep us from shucking any corn this weekend in Lincoln. However, Riley (41 years of coaching experience) and his 10-assistant staff (244 combined years of football knowledge) are far from newbies. As is QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. who brings a 16-5 SU record in 21 career starts with Big Red. However, the Cougars staff is also a tight-knit unit as HC Bronco Mendenhall is one of only fi ve FBS coaches with the same 10 full-time assistants. More importantly, All-American candidate QB Taysom Hill (the Cougs were off to a 4-0 start and averaging 37 PPG last year before he suffered a season-ending leg injury) is back at the helm. And he’ll be needed as the Mormons face a ‘polygamous’ September slate (Boise State, at UCLA and at Michigan follow). So, once again, the question becomes: do the kids of the corn improve to 9-1-1 ATS in Game One of the season or fall to 2-6 ATS as favorites of 7 or more points. We’ll let you decide.

NC STATE over Troy by 34It’s the end of a golden era in Troy, Alabama. The man who damn near invented football, taking the Trojans from a Division II program to a respectable Sun Belt resident, called it quits after 24 years. And with that,


Larry Blakeney hands the keys over to former assistant Neal Brown. The 35-year-old Brown is the second youngest coach in the FBS this season and a descendant of the Hal Mumme spread offense. I.E. – their football will have more airtime than the Kardashian girls (and maybe Caitlyn, too) this season. Thus, it’s a good thing that QB Brandon Silvers set an FBS freshman mark, completing 71% of his passes in 2014. Unfortunately for Silvers, the Wolfpack return eight starters from a defense that made terrifi c strides in 2014. They also return dual-threat QB Jacoby Brissett (2,606 yards/26 TDs/5 INTs last season) who led as well-balanced an attack as there was in college football last season (2,659 passing yards/2,652 rushing yards). And don’t forget State’s stable of quality running backs led by Shadrach Thornton and Matthew Dayes, each of whom averaged 5.5 yards per rush in 2014. The Pack played 74 underclassmen last year (third most in the nation), making their ACC title aspirations actually legit. Thus, the ‘Brown’ era gets off to a rocky start in Raleigh. A must lay.

NO ILLINOIS over Unlv by 27Another new head coach makes his FBS debut. Tony Sanchez, former HC at high school power Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas where he went 85-5, replaces Bobby Hauck, who compiled a 15-49 record in fi ve seasons at UNLV. Only two other head coaches have jumped from high school to college football and the results were not pretty: Todd Dodge (6-37 at North Texas) and Gerry Faust (30-26-1 at Notre Dame). So does Sanchez get to square off against Slippery Rock or another such beatable foe in his fi rst FBS contest? Nope. He’s tasked with beating the winningest program in the state of Illinois and in the MAC over the last decade – the Huskies of NIU. In fact, head coach Rod Carey has compiled more wins in his fi rst two seasons as a MAC coach at Northern Illinois than heralded Urban Meyer, Gary Pinkel, Jerry Kill or Brian Kelly! Sanchez is up against even more intimidating history: UNLV has looked like road kill when playing away from Glitter Gulch, posting a 6-57 SU and 18-43-2 ATS mark since 2004. And road openers have been particularly unkind to the Rebels, who have struggled to a 3-30 SU and 6-12 ATS record. As for the Huskies, they’ve posted a jaw-dropping 44-1 SU log in games in which they allow 24 or less points (Rebs managed 22 PPG on offense LY). As M.C. Hammer might say, “You can’t touch this”, and with only Murray State on deck for NIU, look for an all-out effort from the hosts at Huskie Stadium tonight.

OKLAHOMA over Akron by 39OU head coach Bob Stoops probably breathed a sigh of relief when he saw his Sooners ranked No. 19 in the preseason coaches poll. Last year, Oklahoma debuted at No. 3 in the poll but a shaky defense directed by Bob’s brother Mike – who limped back to Norman after losing his job as head coach at Arizona in 2011 – doomed the Sooners to a disappointing 8-5 fi nish, which included a mind-boggling no-show against Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl (lost 40-6 as 6.5-point chalk). In fact, Oklahoma has given up 30 or more points in 17 of its 39 games since Mike returned as defensive coordinator, and last year his defense folded in four losses to the Big 12’s best, yielding 37 points to TCU, 31 to Kansas State, 48 to Baylor and 38 to Oklahoma State. You can bet big brother will be keeping a close eye on the ‘D’ when OU takes the fi eld tonight against Akron, the Sooners’ 99th consecutive home sellout. As for the Zips, a pair of 5-7 seasons under HC Terry Bowden is actually a vast improvement over the three one-win teams he inherited when he took over these fl at tires. And to his credit, Bowden has stuck through the hard times and brought in 3 and 4-star recruits which will pay big dividends in the near future. Today, though, with 16 straight road-opening losses – and riding an 8-55 road skid in non-conference clashes – this could degenerate into blowout city. Oklahoma came very close to showing up as a RED-FACED BOWLER (AWESOME ANGLE on page 2) and after last year’s lackluster effort, look for Big Game Bob to have his troops hitting on all cylinders here.

Tennessee over Bowling Green by 16Slowly but effi ciently, HC Butch Jones is bringing back the Tennessee program from the train wreck of Derek Dooley’s three seasons in Knoxville. And with a whopping 19 starters returning and a preseason No. 25 ranking, the Vols look poised to challenge in the SEC East this year. But looks can be deceiving. Less than a week before this afternoon’s game, Tennessee’s starting combinations on the offensive line still remained a mystery – not a good sign for a unit that allowed 43 sacks last season and lost their most experienced lineman when Marcus Jackson went down with a biceps injury in training camp. Factor in the suspension of dynamic WR Pig Howard and the loss of numerous other key players to injury, and suddenly the promise of last year’s dramatic fi nish – 4-1 SU in the fi nal fi ve games – is no longer a given. Tennessee has also struggled against the spread of late in its role here, going 0-4 ATS as non-conference favorites of more than 14 points and failing to cash in four of its last

fi ve meetings with MAC foes. Bowling Green HC Dino Babers delivered the goods in his fi rst season with the Falcons, going 8-6 with a bowl victory, and his “basketball on turf” returns all 11 starters form last year’s up-tempo, explosive offense. Granted, the Bee Gees’ 33 PPG defense is a concern, but their 16-8 ATS mark as double-digit non-conference underdogs – including 4-0 ATS in their last four season openers – has us leaning in Dino’s direction. Don’t get us wrong – we expect considerable improvement from the Vols in 2015. But we simply can’t lay this kind of wood based on potential, especially with a huge Oklahoma revenger on deck. Take it or leave it.

GEORGIA over UL-Monroe by 36 The last time UL-Monroe opened the season against an SEC squad, they promptly beat Arkansas, 34-31, as 30-point dogs. In fact, the Warhawks are 4-2 ATS against the mighty SEC in season lid-lifters. They’re also 4-1 ATS when taking 31 or more points in the initial game of the campaign. However, the problem with backing Monroe today ‘between the hedges’ is they played more like Marilyn down the stretch in 2014, dropping seven of their last eight. They have also been shut out in four of the last fi ve seasons (even Idaho hasn’t done that) and it wouldn’t surprise us if Georgia’s stop-unit, which improved 8 points and 38 YPG last year, have their sights set on a goose egg. UGA’s offense also improved from a scoring standpoint (41 PPG) and fi gures to only get better as new OC Brian Schottenheimer has all-SEC RB Nick Chubb at his disposal, but loses QB Hutson Mason (fi nished second in SEC passing effi ciency last year). Thus, at 17-1 SU in home openers the only question becomes does Mark Richt – who only trails Bob Stoops, Tom Osborne and Barry Switzer for most wins in their fi rst 14 seasons as a head coach – improve on his 81-41-2 ATS career mark in SU victories? We’ll observe.

KENTUCKY over UL-Lafayette by 21 The other UL teams opens up against another SEC foe, only this one could be in their wheelhouse. Then again… maybe not. Sure, four straight 9-4 seasons puts HC Mark Hudspeth on the Power Five radar screen but the Cajuns’ 0-29 SU and 6-12 ATS mark versus the SEC makes them nothing more than a blip tonight in Lexington. Furthermore, the problem facing Hudspeth this season is a rash of senior-starter losses, including a three-year starting QB, RB, two WR’s, three offensive lineman and six starters on defense. That’s NOT the case for the Wildcats as 15 starters make their way back to Commonweatlh Stadium, including QB Patrick Towles (Jim Bunning’s grandson) and a near-intact offensive line. Meanwhile, a fi fth-straight losing campaign in 2014 (despite improving on both sides of the ball) should have the ‘Cats clawing early this season. Remember, they smoked ULL’s cousin, ULM, 48-14 in this building last season. Thus, we say lay it and play it as UK improves to 5-0 ATS in home openers and 8-1 ATS as non-conference chalk of 14 or more points.

ARKANSAS over UTEP by 31 Sure, the Miners barely missed joining the 100-yard Defensive Improvement Club last season, surrendering 370 YPG as opposed to 468 in 2013. However, that may just appear to be fool’s gold today in Fayetteville as the Hogs closed out the 2014 campaign on a 9-2 ATS run, including a 31-7 bowl rout of Texas Tech. Arky is also a comfortable 4-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back homers and 3-1-1 ATS as non-conference home favorites of 31 or more points. Meanwhile, UTEP is 0-7 ATS in their last seven versus the SEC and 1-6 ATS as road dogs of 24 or more points. However, the loss of star RB Jonathon Williams for an extended period of time with a foot injury is a huge blow for the Razorbacks as he paired with Alex Collins to form the only FBS tandem to each rush for over 1,00 yards last season. A deeper check on El Paso also fi nds them mining at a 3-0 ATS clip before tangling with Texas Tech and a 4-1 ATS pace as Game One dogs. Hence, we’ll leave the Pyrite for someone else. Pass.

WEST VIRGINIA over Ga Southern by 17The Mountaineers may have faced the toughest schedule in school history last season en route to a seven-win bowl campaign but they didn’t face a ground attack like Georgia Southern’s. The Eagles averaged a whopping 7.2 YPR in 2014 while tallying 383 RYPG and the Mounties’ 4.4 DYPR doesn’t lend much confi dence that they can slow down the Eagles’ ground attack. The Hillbillies do return a combined 321 games of staring experience and are 30-4-1 SU in home openers, including 6-1 ATS as double-digit chalk. But is that enough to stop Southern from, once again, ‘puttin’ on the Fritz’? In his rookie season last year, Willie Fritz led the Eagles to nine wins and a Sun Belt title as they made their inaugural voyage in FBS waters. The problem, though, was all nine of their victories came against either a conference foe or FCS school (albeit two of their three losses were by a combined fi ve points). We have no doubt the Mountaineers will be improved but this Georgia Southern team is too dangerous to be given this many points. Yet another case of take it or leave it.


NOTRE DAME over Texas by 6Despite the transfer of QB Everett Golson to FSU, the Irish appear to be loaded. Seventeen starters, including 10 on defense, return to South Bend. In fact, Brian Kelly used 20 different starters on ‘D’ last season and of those 143 total starts, 127 return. Malik Zaire takes over for the aforementioned Golson under center and he’ll look to improve on ND’s recent 1-3 ATS log versus the Big 12 and 4-10 ATS mark as home favorites of 10 or less points. He’ll also look to stop Texas’ 15-game winning streak in openers. The problem facing the Longhorns today is a nasty 0-5 ATS mark before three straight home games and 2-5 ATS log as non-conference dogs of 6 or more points. They’re also likely to split time at the QB position with Tyrone Swoops (just 1-9 as a starter in his senior year in high school) and Jerrod Heard (won numerous state titles). And unless you’re Ohio State, you know what they say about having two quarterbacks! However, in a chess match pitting two top-notch stop-units, the points become the play… especially if this number reaches double-digits.

FLORIDA ST over Texas St by 27Bobby Bowden can fi nally relax… QB ‘Shamus’ Winston is no longer around to embarrass the Florida State program. But relaxation is not on current HC Jimbo Fisher’s to-do list as he tries to fi t new signal-caller Everett Goldson, the former Notre Dame QB, into Winston’s Heisman-winning shoes. After being humiliated by Oregon in last year’s College Playoffs and having the most players taken in the NFL draft (11), we’re somewhat surprised to see the Seminoles land at No. 8 in the preseason coaches poll. FSU continually underachieved in 2014: not only were the ‘Noles the worst team in the land in failing to convert 4th downs (11), they fi nished with a dreadful 3-10 ATS log, a mirror-opposite of the 10-3 ATS mark they posted in 2013’s national championship-winning season. But Fisher hasn’t gone 58-11 SU in fi ve years at Tallahassee without quality players and great depth, so don’t be fooled by the lack of returning starters (10) – there is always talent waiting in the wings. Still, we’re not anxious to lay this big number until we see how new QB Golson fi ts into the mix. Savvy veteran coach Dennis Franchione arrives with a Texas State team off its fi rst winning season as an FBS squad, and the Bobcats are loaded with experienced players. The offensive line features no less than seven players with multiple starts and 10 of the top 12 defensive linemen are back, along with three of the top four LBs and eight of the top ten DBs in 2015. Whoa! But this ain’t the Sun Belt and TSU will be hard-pressed to hang with a foe of this caliber. Even so, Franchione’s Bobcats closed last season on a 6-0 ATS run and we think they can squeeze out a tight spread win here.

4� BEST BET

Love him or hate him, you’ve gotta hand it to Alabama HC Nick Saban for not shying away from season-openers against competitive opponents. In fi ve of his eight seasons with the Tide, Saban has taken on West Virginia, Virginia Tech (twice), Michigan and Clemson to start a new year – and he’s gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in those games. But for the second straight season, Bama suits up after being stunned in a season-ending bowl game, so the boys from Tuscaloosa should be all business tonight at Jerry’s World in Arlington, Texas. Wisconsin, however, was not merely stunned in its Big Ten title game loss to Ohio State – the Badgers were so convincingly destroyed in the 59-0 rout that then-head coach Gary Andersen walked off the fi eld and didn’t stop until he reached Corvallis, Oregon. Enter former Bret Bielema assistant Paul Chryst, who makes his Wisconsin debut after recording a mediocre 19-20 mark in three seasons as head Panther at Pittsburgh. Our well-oiled machine reminds us that it’s never a good idea to back newbies in season openers on the road as they’re a measly 66-90-6 ATS in this role since 1990 when not playing in front of the hometown faithful. Big Ten teams are also a puny 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS (0-4 ATS this millennium) in season openers when taking on an SEC foe. No such negativism for the Tide. They’re 4-0 ATS as regular season non-conference chalk of 14 or less points and Saban was 4-0 SUATS versus Big Ten foes – with an average win by 28.5 points – until last year’s playoff loss to Ohio State. Our SMART BOX also insists that Saban is the side, and who are we to argue with the Sagacious Square? Check today’s line as the Tide’s red-faced embarrassment in the College Football Playoffs sets up The Clincher: See this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2.

Alabama over Wisconsin by 21

Mississippi St over SO MISS by 21We want no part of this Magnolia State mess. Mississippi State could still be reeling from an up-and-down season that saw the Bulldogs start 9-0 and grab the No. 1 ranking before losing two of their fi nal three SEC

Sunday, September 6MARSHALL over Purdue by 1

At fi rst glance the Boilermakers have the look of an improved unit in 2015 with 16 returning starters back from a team that improved its numbers on both sides of the ball (offense +62 YPG; defense +44 YPG). In addition, 6’ 5” QB Austin Appleby and all fi ve of his offensive linemen return. On the fl ip side, the Herd was hit hard by graduation losses. Gone is all-everything QB Rakeem Cato and WR Tommy Shuler, his prime go-to target. Also departed is all-conference center Chris Japerse, along with the team’s top three DBs and three of its four top LBs. Thankfully, a trio of RBs who rushed for 3,111 yards last year returns this year for Marshall. The bottom line, though, is we can’t lay a touchdown with a softened C-USA squad into an improving Big Ten bully. Not one that is 13-3 SU in season openers the past sixteen years. Just Due it!

Monday, September 7Ohio St over VIRGINIA TECH by 16

It’s strange but for all of everything the Buckeyes accomplished last season, THIS was supposed to be their year – Urban Meyer’s fourth year with the program, featuring the prime load of his initial recruiting class. Were it not for a stunning 35-21 home-opening loss to the Hokies last season it would have been perfection to the max for OSU last season. That sets the table for this battle with the Buckeyes bringing a stunning 14-1 ATS mark in their last 15 revenge games into this game. And it doesn’t stop there. Check out Meyer’s jaw-dropping numbers: 12-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in road openers, 27-6 SU and 23-9-1 ATS in revenge games, 52-6 SU and 38-12-1 ATS in non-conference games, including 4-0 SUATS with revenge. Oh, and did we mention the fact that defending national champions are 28-2 SU and 18-12 ATS as favorites in season-opening games? In addition, AP preseason No.1 ranked teams are 24-0 SU and 12-7-1 ATS in season openers since 1990. Granted, Frank Beamer’s bunch fi gures to be vastly improved in 2015, but the fact is they bring an 0-6 ATS record in season openers into this fray. Yes, the Techsters own a stellar 10-1-1 ATS mark as double-digit home dogs, but that only stops us from snapping the rubber band. Remember, the Hokies are just 22-17 SU and 13-22-1 ATS in all games since 2012. Granted, there is a lot of name and reputation at work for Beamer today… but we’re not buying it.

games and getting bounced from playoff contention. Meanwhile, after going 1-23 SU the previous two campaigns, Southern Miss ‘improved’ to 3-9 last year. The Golden Eagles can also boast a 17-3 SU record in their last 20 home openers, though few of those opponents, if any, were in MSU’s class. While we see a downward fall for the Bulldogs in 2015, it may not be apparent here as Dan Mullen wins the backing of the SMART BOX in State’s lid-lifter. However, despite our unbridled affection for the Box, we just can’t go agree here as the Dogs are a ‘Green Team’ (fi ve or fewer returning starters on both sides of the ball) with 14 starters lost from last year’s 10-win squad. A whopping 22 players made their FBS debut last year for Smissy (third most in the nation) and as the complexion of these players clears, we defi nitely see better days ahead for these birds… just not here. And with the heavily-favored Bulldogs just 5-9 SUATS of late in road openers – and looking to fry signifi cantly bigger fi sh against LSU next week – we’ll take a pass tonight.

USC over Arkansas St by 24Well, thanks to the intrusive presence of a camera in everybody’s phone these days, USC’s Steve Sarkisian has been outed as a coach who refuses to drink responsibly. Seems that Sark got hammered on booze and pills before slurring his way through an expletive-laden speech at a recent Southern Cal booster event. To which we say, so what??? Now operating at full strength after playing through sanctions levied because of ‘improprieties’ during the Pete Carroll era, today’s Trojans are a PLAYBOOK choice to make the College Football Playoffs this season. That being said, we can’t get behind them here simply because they’re faced with a plethora of bad numbers: 0-4 ATS as non-conference chalk of 24 or more points, 1-4 ATS in recent Game One’s and 1-3 ATS in the fi rst of three or more consecutive home games. Probably the most amazing fact about this game is that Arkansas State returns its same head coach for the fi rst time in fi ve years! Second-year leader Blake Anderson welcomes back nine starters from an offense that averaged 37 PPG and 477 YPG en route to the school’s fourth straight winning season and bowl appearance. Arky State also arrives at the left coast with some decent ATS history for today’s matchup, going 6-0 ATS in Game One’s, 6-1 as non-conference dogs of 24 or more points and 9-3 as road dogs over the last four years. Should be fun to see if the Trojans’ vaunted defense can shut down a Red Wolves ground attack that’s picked up an average of 4.8 yards per carry over the past three seasons. Slightest of leans to the underdogs from Jonesboro.


2015 College Football OVER/UNDER Breakdown

COMPILED BY VICTOR KING OF KING CREOLE SPORTS

Best ‘OVER’ teams:Tulsa (10-2 O/U)… Nebraska (9-2-1 O/U)… Ohio State (12-3 O/U)… Michigan State, Western Kentucky (10-3 O/U)… Georgia State (8-3-1 O/U)… Boise State (10-4 O/U)… Buffalo (7-3 O/U)… BYU, Georgia, Louisiana Tech, Oklahoma (9-4 O/U)… Army, Florida, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, SMU, Western Michigan (8-4 O/U)… Arkansas State, Wisconsin (8-4-1 O/U).

Best ‘UNDER’ teams:San Diego State (1-12 O/U)… Mississippi, Syracuse (2-10 O/U)… Ohio University (2-9-1 O/U)… Clemson, Stanford (3-9 O/U)… Kansas, Temple, Virginia (3-8 O/U)… Nevada, Texas, Utah (4-9 O/U)… Akron, Duke, La-Monroe, Louisville, Miami-Fla, South Florida, Texas-San Antonio, West Virginia (4-8 O/U).

MOST combined PPG (offense + defense):Western Kentucky (84.3 ppg)… California (77.9)… Baylor (73.7)… North Carolina (72.2)… Texas Tech (71.7)… Old Dominion (70.7)… Washington State (70.4)… Oregon (70.0)… Colorado (67.5)… Arkansas State (67.2)… Toledo (67.1)… Marshall (66.6)… Boise State (66.5)… Ohio State (66.3)… Georgia State (66.0)… TCU (65.5).

LEAST combined PPG (offense + defense):Penn State (39.4 ppg)… Temple (40.6)… Wake Forest (41.2)… Syracuse (41.4)… Texas-San Antonio (43.0)… Michigan (43.3)… Stanford (43.6)… South Florida (44.2)… Mississippi, Virginia Tech (44.3)… Tulane (44.4)… San Diego State (44.8)… LSU (45.1)… Texas (45.2)… Connecticut, Ohio University (45.3)… Kent State (45.4)… Akron (45.7).

With the 2015 College Football season commencing play on September 3rd, KING CREOLE has dissected last year’s OU results for all Division 1-A schools (see chart on next page).

The teams are listed in alphabetical order. The fi rst column is each team’s OU results with OVERS listed fi rst and UNDERS listed second (along with any OU ties). All teams that went Over or Under 67% of the time or greater are in a BOLD font. Columns two and three list each team’s average points scored on offense and allowed on defense. Column four lists the total amount of points scored and allowed. Column fi ve lists the average Over/Under line. And the last column lists the average Over/Under MARGIN for each team. Signifi cant Over/Under average margins will also appear in a BOLD font.

NOW, LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE TOP TEAMS IN VARIOUS OU CATEGORIES:

HIGHEST average OU line:Oregon (69.7)… Baylor (69.5)… Texas Tech (68.3)… Western Kentucky (67.9)… California (67.5)… Old Dominion (67.0)… Arizona (66.2)… Washington State (65.8)… Marshall (65.5)… North Carolina (64.9)… West Virginia (64.2)… Bowling Green (63.8)… Texas A&M (63.7)… Arizona State (63.6)… South Carolina (62.9).

LOWEST average OU line:Wake Forest (44.9)… Penn State (45.5)… Virginia Tech (46.9)… Connecticut (47.2)… Central Florida (47.4)… Michigan (48.3)… Iowa (48.4)… Louisville, Texas, Virginia (48.7)… Florida International (48.8)… Texas-San Antonio (48.9)… Utah State (49.3)… LSU (49.5)… South Florida (49.6)… Stanford (49.8).

HIGHEST average OU MARGIN:Western Kentucky (+16.4 ppg!)… Michigan State (+11.4)… California (+10.4)… Boise State, Ohio State (+9.0)… Arkansas State (+8.8)… Nebraska (+8.2)… Colorado (+7.9)… Kentucky, Texas State (+7.8)… North Carolina (+7.3)… Tulsa (+7.1)… Buffalo (+7.0)… Western Michigan (+6.6)… TCU (+6.6)… Notre Dame (+6.5).

LOWEST average OU MARGIN:Temple (-10.2 ppg)… Ohio University, Syracuse (-9.2)… Mississippi (-8.4)… San Diego State (-8.3)… South Alabama (-8.0)… Hawaii, Kent State (-6.6)… Stanford (-6.2)… Akron, La-Monroe, Penn State (-6.1)… Texas-San Antonio (-5.9)… Tulane (-5.6)… San Jose State (-5.4)… Clemson (-5.3)… Michigan (-5.0).

P L A Y B O O K ’ S A N N U A L

WISE GUYS CONTEST

2014 WISE GUYS TOP FINISHERS

2015A $10,000 WINNERS-TAKE-ALL BEST BET CONTEST!

Now in its 30th year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winners-take-all contest. The TOP THREE fi nishers, the BEST BET champion and the FINAL 4-WEEK winner will take home the money, with each winning pick printed in the

PLAYBOOK Newsletter carrying a value of one point, all winning DOUBLE PLAYS worth two points, and a one-time TOP PLAY OF THE YEAR (noted with an asterisk) worth three points. All selections are graded against the lines posted after 1:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS CONTEST page at PLAYBOOK.com. Congratulations to 2014 Champion Steve Merril. Remember, you can follow the selections of each week’s Top 20 contestants, along with notable pros like: Billy The Kid, Coast2Coast Sports, Doc’s Sports, Fairway Jay, James Patrick, JB Sports, Jersey Kid, JH-Sportsline, Jim Feist, Joe Nelson, Ken Thomson, Marc Lawrence, Mike Muzyka, Mr. East, Okie Sports, Norm Hitzges, Peter Brown, Richard Witt, Rob Vinciletti, Robbie Gainous, Robert Ferringo, Rocketman Sports, Ross Benjamin, Scott Landau, Special K Sports, Statfox Dave, Stormin’ Norman, Victor King, TD Tony, and more – every week in the 2015 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

STARTS NEXT WEEK IN ISSUE #3!

CONTESTANT W-L/BEST BETS PTSSteve Merril 26-10 / *15-3 42Marc Lawrence 26-10 / 14-4* 40Stormin Norman 24-12 / *14-4 39JH-Sportsline 25-11 / 13-5* 38Okie Sports 23-13 / *14-4 38Billy The Kid 21-14 / *10-7 32Coast2Coast Sports 21-14 / * 9-8 31 JB Sports 21-14 / * 9-8 31Jersey Kid 22-13 / 9-9* 31Mr. East 21-15 / 10-8* 31Statfox Dave 20-15 / 11-7* 31

1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.

Best Bet Champion: Steve Merril (31 pts)Final 4-Week Champion: Steve Merril (13 pts)

– ALL ATS TIES OMITTED / * W-L RESULT FOR 3� PICK –


AIR FORCEAKRONALABAMAAPPALACHIAN STARIZONAARIZONA STARKANSASARKANSAS STARMYAUBURNBALL STBAYLORBOISE STBOSTON COLLBOWL GREENBUFFALOBYUC FLORIDAC MICHIGANCALIFORNIACINCINNATICLEMSONCOLORADOCOLORADO STCONNECTICUTDUKEE CAROLINAE MICHIGANFLA ATLANTICFLA INT’LFLORIDAFLORIDA STFRESNO STGA SOUTHERNGEORGIAGEORGIA STGEORGIA TECHHAWAIIHOUSTONIDAHOILLINOISINDIANAIOWAIOWA STKANSASKANSAS STKENT STKENTUCKYLA LAFAYETTELA MONROELA TECHLOUISVILLELSUMARSHALLMARYLANDMASSACHUSETTSMEMPHISMIAMI FLAMIAMI OHIOMICHIGANMICHIGAN STMIDDLE TENNMINNESOTA

5-7-14-87-66-45-97-65-7

8-4-18-4

7-5-16-67-5

10-44-7-17-67-39-47-56-76-5

5-7-13-97-56-75-64-86-76-5

6-5-15-5-18-46-76-75-69-4

8-3-18-65-85-77-47-66-68-55-73-88-55-68-46-74-89-44-85-7

7-5-17-68-48-54-85-65-7

10-37-5

6-6-1

31.522.636.935.734.536.931.936.724.935.527.748.239.726.230.032.337.128.126.938.234.030.828.533.915.532.435.815.224.023.030.233.726.539.141.322.737.920.929.825.025.925.128.223.217.835.816.429.229.520.137.431.227.645.628.527.336.229.222.320.943.031.628.4

24.223.118.427.328.227.919.230.532.926.727.225.526.821.333.531.527.519.225.239.727.216.739.025.129.821.825.840.934.424.821.125.632.423.420.743.325.726.820.637.334.032.825.638.833.223.229.031.226.026.224.721.817.521.030.233.019.524.331.822.421.531.524.2

56.745.755.363.062.764.851.167.257.862.254.973.766.547.563.563.864.647.352.177.961.247.567.559.045.354.261.656.158.447.851.359.358.962.562.066.063.647.750.462.359.957.953.862.051.059.045.460.455.546.362.153.045.166.658.760.355.753.554.143.364.563.152.6

56.751.853.159.266.263.654.758.456.861.656.469.557.548.663.856.858.247.453.467.560.052.859.658.147.255.760.557.055.248.850.758.861.659.757.862.558.254.353.360.857.860.948.459.853.258.952.052.660.152.456.548.749.565.553.156.652.357.155.748.353.159.549.9

-0--6.1+2.2+3.8-3.5+1.2-3.6+8.8+1.0+0.6-1.5+4.2+9.0-1.1-0.3+7.0+6.4-0.1-1.3

+10.4+1.2-5.3+7.9+0.9-1.9-1.5+1.1-0.9+3.2-1.0+0.6+0.5-2.7+2.8+4.2+3.5+5.4-6.6-2.9+1.5+2.1-3.0+5.4+2.2-2.2+0.1-6.6+7.8-4.6-6.1+5.6+4.3-4.4+1.0+5.6+3.7+3.4-3.6-1.6-5.0

+11.4+3.6+2.7

AVGMARG

AVGLINE

TOTPPGPAPFO/UTEAM

A TEAM-BY-TEAM LOOK AT LAST SEASON’S COLLEGE O/U STATS

MISSISSIPPIMISSISSIPPI STMISSOURIN CAROLINAN ILLINOISNAVYNC STATENEBRASKANEVADANEW MEXICONEW MEX STNORTH TEXASNORTHWESTERNNOTRE DAMEOHIO STOHIO UOKLAHOMAOKLAHOMA STOLD DOMINIONOREGONOREGON STPENN STPITTSBURGHPURDUERICERUTGERSS ALABAMAS CAROLINAS FLORIDASAN DIEGO STSAN JOSE STSMUSOUTHERN MISSSTANFORDSYRACUSETCUTEMPLETENNESSEETEXASTEXAS A&MTEXAS STTEXAS TECHTOLEDOTROYTULANETULSAUCLAUNLVUSCUTAHUTAH STUTEPUTSAVANDERBILTVIRGINIAVIRGINIA TECHW KENTUCKYW MICHIGANW VIRGINIAWAKE FORESTWASHINGTONWASHINGTON STWISCONSINWYOMING

2-106-77-75-75-9

4-7-16-6

9-2-14-96-68-47-45-68-5

12-32-9-19-46-66-67-85-76-7

7-5-16-57-66-65-86-64-81-125-6-18-45-63-92-108-53-86-64-96-6

7-4-16-68-56-65-7

10-25-87-56-74-9

6-6-15-84-85-73-8

4-7-110-38-44-84-7

3-106-6

8-4-16-5-1

28.336.927.833.231.531.830.237.829.227.724.527.223.032.844.320.536.427.632.745.425.720.631.823.828.826.722.532.617.225.019.311.119.027.217.146.523.128.921.435.233.830.536.621.816.024.733.521.935.831.326.926.617.117.225.824.144.433.833.514.830.231.834.621.1

16.021.721.139.025.627.327.026.427.235.939.129.825.229.222.024.825.931.238.023.631.618.626.331.728.530.226.430.427.019.829.441.335.416.424.319.017.524.223.828.127.741.230.536.228.439.228.138.525.224.919.728.125.933.224.120.239.924.927.626.424.838.620.832.8

44.358.648.972.257.159.157.264.256.463.663.657.048.262.066.345.362.458.870.770.057.339.458.155.557.356.946.963.044.244.848.752.454.443.641.465.540.653.145.263.361.571.767.158.044.463.961.660.461.056.246.654.743.050.449.944.384.362.761.141.255.070.455.453.9

52.757.152.564.960.756.256.656.058.259.661.850.650.755.557.354.557.359.567.069.757.645.552.552.255.556.554.962.949.653.154.253.656.449.850.658.950.852.148.763.753.768.361.862.250.056.861.059.461.155.949.355.148.950.048.746.967.955.964.244.659.265.854.052.8

-8.4+1.5-3.6+7.3-3.6+2.9+0.6+8.2-1.8+4.0+1.8+6.4-2.5+6.5+9.0-9.2+5.1-0.7+3.7+0.3-0.3-6.1+5.6+3.3+1.8+0.4-8.0+0.1-5.4-8.3-5.4-1.2-2.0-6.2-9.2+6.6-10.2+1.0-3.5+0.4+7.8+3.4+5.3-4.2-5.6+7.1+0.6+1.0-0.1+0.3-2.7-0.4-5.9+0.4+1.2-2.6

+16.4+6.8-3.1-3.4-4.2+4.6+1.4+1.1

AVGMARG

AVGLINE

TOTPPGPAPFO/UTEAM


SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

OLD DOMINION3:00 PM TIME CHANGE E MICHIGAN

NEW MEXICO ST7:30 PM TIME CHANGE FLORIDA SEC

PENN ST3:30 PM TIME CHANGE TEMPLE ESPN

FLA ATLANTIC3:30 PM TULSA CBSSN

10 1

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONSTHIS WEEK'S BEST BETS

FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY,SEPTEMBER 7, 2015 4� BEST BET3� BEST BET 5� BEST BET

2015 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: TEMPLE ALABAMA HAWAII

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

OHIO ST8:00 PM VA TECH ESPN

209 210

UTEP3:30 PM TIME CHANGE ARKANSAS ESPNU GA SOUTHERN7:30 PM WEST VIRGINA

TEXAS7:30 PM NOTRE DAME NBC

TEXAS ST8:00 PM FLORIDA ST ESPNN

WISCONSIN8:00 PM @ Arlington, TX ALABAMA ABC

MISSISSIPPI ST10:00 PM SO MISS FOXS1

ARKANSAS ST11:00 PM USC PAC12

193 194

195 196

197 198

199 200

201 202

203 204

205 206

2015 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE

All times listed are Eastern Standard Time • Games in Offi cial International Rotation sequence • Dates & times subject to change

Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the SportsOptions.com opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin on the game. You have a PLAYBOOK BEST BET whenever our predicted margin of victory is 6 or more points in favor of your line. Remember, opening lines

are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a play.

OL PB

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

S CAROLINA6:00 PM @ Charlotte, NC N CAROLINA ESPN

FLORIDA INT’L6:00 PM UCF CBSSN

OKLAHOMA ST7:00 PM C MICHIGAN ESPNU

W KENTUCKY8:00 PM TIME CHANGE VANDERBILT SEC

MICHIGAN8:30 PM UTAH FOXS1

TCU9:00 PM MINNESOTA ESPN

DUKE9:30 PM TULANE CBSSN

OHIO U9:00 PM TIME CHANGE IDAHO

UTSA10:00 PM ARIZONA PAC12

COLORADO1:00 AM HAWAII CBSSN

133 134

135 136

137 138

211 212

139 140

141 142

143 144

145 146

147 148

149 150

BAYLOR7:00 PM SMU ESPN

CHARLOTTE3:30 PM TIME CHANGE GEORGIA ST ESPNU

MICHIGAN ST7:00 PM TIME CHANGE W MICH ESPNU

KENT ST9:00 PM ILLINOIS BTN

WASHINGTON10:15 PM BOISE ST ESPN

151 152

153 154

155 156

157 158

159 160

OL PB

1 8

VIRGINIA3:30 PM UCLA FOX

STANFORD12:00 PM TIME CHANGE N’WESTERN ESPN

LOUISVILLE 3:30 PM @ Atlanta, GA AUBURN CBS ARIZONA ST ESPN 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE TEX A&M @ Houston, TX

BYU3:30 PM NEBRASKA ABC

TROY6:00 PM NC STATE

UNLV 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE NO ILLINOIS

AKRON7:00 PMOKLAHOMA

BOWL GREEN SEC4:00 PM TIME CHANGE TENN @ Nashville, TN

UL-MONROE12:00 PM TIME CHANGE GEORGIA SEC

UL-LAFAYETTE7:00 PM KENTUCKY ESPNU

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PURDUE 3:00 PM MARSHALL FOXS1

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UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK: MICHIGAN SUBSCRIBE TO PLAYBOOK TODAY: 1.800.752.9266

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FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

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