semicon japan 2009 - semiconductor equipment and materials outlook

SEMI Market Seminar, SEMICON Japan 20091

Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook

Dan TracySEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group

December 2, 2009


Outline

Update on current market and forecast for,

Semiconductor Equipment

Semiconductor Materials

Summary


Silicon Area Shipment Index

Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group November 2009

Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index(Three-month moving average)

507090

110130150170190210230250

Jan-

98M

ay-9

8Se

p-98

Jan-

99M

ay-9

9Se

p-99

Jan-

00M

ay-0

0Se

p-00

Jan-

01M

ay-0

1Se

p-01

Jan-

02M

ay-0

2Se

p-02

Jan-

03M

ay-0

3Se

p-03

Jan-

04M

ay-0

4Se

p-04

Jan-

05M

ay-0

5Se

p-05

Jan-

06M

ay-0

6Se

p-06

Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Se

p-07

Jan-

08M

ay-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09


Semiconductor Equipment


Semiconductor Equipment Spending by Region

Europe, 7%

Japan, 16%

North America,

25%Korea, 15%

Taiwan, 23%

China, 6%

Rest of World, 8%

Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009

2009 Year-to-date through SeptemberMarket Billings = $10.2B

2008 Market Billings = $29.5B

Europe, 8%

Japan, 24%

North America,

19%

Korea, 17%

Taiwan, 17%

China, 6%

Rest of World, 9%


0.45

0.550.650.750.850.951.051.15

Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 (f) Oct-09 (p)

Boo

k-to

-Bill

Rat

io

Source: SEMI November 2009

SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 (f) Oct-09 (p)

US$

Mill

ions

Bookings Billings

North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)


SEAJ Japan Book-to-Bill Ratio

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09

US$

Mill

ions

Bookings Billings

Source: SEAJ October 2009

Japanese Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09

Boo

k-to

-Bill

Rat

io


Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Assembly) Equipment Trends

Worldwide Bookings and Billings forSemiconductor Equipment

(based on 3-month averages)

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

Jan-

97A

pr-9

7Ju

l-97

Oct

-97

Jan-

98A

pr-9

8Ju

l-98

Oct

-98

Jan-

99A

pr-9

9Ju

l-99

Oct

-99

Jan-

00A

pr-0

0Ju

l-00

Oct

-00

Jan-

01A

pr-0

1Ju

l-01

Oct

-01

Jan-

02A

pr-0

2Ju

l-02

Oct

-02

Jan-

03A

pr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct

-03

Jan-

04A

pr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct

-04

Jan-

05A

pr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06A

pr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07A

pr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08A

pr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

US$

Bill

ions

Billings Bookings

Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009


Orders- First year-over-year improvement since 1Q 2007

Equipment Order Trends

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%1Q

200

7

2Q 2

007

3Q 2

007

4Q 2

007

1Q 2

008

2Q 2

008

3Q 2

008

4Q 2

008

1Q 2

009

2Q 2

009

3Q 2

009%

Cha

nge

Quarter-over-Quarter Year-over-Year

Source: SEMI/SEAJ


SEMI® 2009 Year-End Equipment Forecast By Market Region

Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2009 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, December 2009

Totals may not add due to rounding

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35

N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW

ROW 2.61 1.40 2.31 2.96China 1.89 1.05 1.87 2.56S.Korea 4.89 2.95 4.47 5.90Europe 2.45 1.01 1.87 2.15Taiwan 5.01 4.04 5.92 7.76Japan 7.04 2.25 3.64 4.50N. America 5.63 3.33 4.41 5.39

2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011F

US$

Bill

ions

$16.03

$24.49


$29.52 $31.22


SEMI® 2009 Year-End EquipmentForecast By Segment

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other

Other 2.00 1.14 1.63 2.02Test 3.45 1.57 2.54 3.27Assembly & Pack. 2.04 1.36 1.95 2.38Wafer Process 22.03 11.95 18.37 23.55

2008 (A) 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011 (F)

US$

Bill

ions

$29.52

$16.03

$24.49

$31.22


Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2009 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, December 2009


Equipment Spending Trends

16%

13%15%

17%

20% 20%

17%

20%

14% 13%

17%

14%12%

16%

12%

24%

17%

13%

17%

7%

10%$139.0$140.7$166.6

$213.0$227.5

$262.3

$204.4

$125.6

$149.4$137.2

$132.0

$144.4$102.0

$77.0$60.0$55.0

$247.7$255.6

$248.6$219.6

$242.1

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

F20

10F

2011

F

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

US$

Bill

ions

Equipment Spending % of Semiconductor Revenue

Semiconductor Revenue ($B) WSTS

Source: SEMI and SIA November 2009

Line ChartBar Charts


Semiconductor Materials


Photoresist Market Trends

$0$25$50$75

$100$125$150$175$200$225

Glo

bal R

even

ues

$US

Mill

ions

1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09

Advanced Positive NegativeSource: SEMI CGMG November 2009


Anti-Reflective Coatings Markets

104117 116

89

61

95 100

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130

1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09

Rev

enue

s $U

S M

illio

ns

Global Anti-Reflective Coatings Market

*Total may differ slightly due to roundingSource: SEMI CGMG November 2009

America16%

Europe8%

Japan21%

Taiwan21%

Korea22%

Other Asia12%

2009 Market (year to date) = $256M


Leadframes-Shipments return to year ago levels

Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription

Global Leadframe Shipments

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep

-06

Nov

-06

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep

-07

Nov

-07

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep

-08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep

-09

Mill

ions

of U

nits

IC Discrete


Gold Bonding Wire- Clear Transition to Smaller Diameter

% Share of Gold Wire Market by Diameter

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E

>30 micron 25-30 micron <25 micron

Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook


Packaging Materials Outlook

160.7

18.0

343

7,055

20107,4796,5737,574Organic Substrates

(K square meters)

171.3137.4158.0Mold Compound (millions of kg)

20.315.415.8Bonding Wire (billions of meters)

365300331Leadframes(billions of units)

201120092008Segment

Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook


Trends in China:

Packaging houses- More than 15 companies are capable of substrate-based packaging technology- Seven bumping fabs with wafer size arranged from 125mm to 300mm- TSV for CIS is under mass production

Packaging Materials- China is estimated to represent about 14% of the market in 2009- Substrate drives the growth of packaging material market in the next several years- China headquartered packaging material suppliers have made progress in leadframe, bonding wire, mold compound, and solder ball area

China Semiconductor Packaging Market

Source: SEMI China Semiconductor Packaging Market Overview


SEMI® 2009 Materials Forecast By Market Region

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50

N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia 6.90 5.97 7.09 7.57China 3.57 3.26 3.75 4.10S.Korea 5.90 4.68 5.14 5.58Europe 3.29 2.47 2.86 3.08Taiwan 7.90 6.76 7.85 8.55Japan 9.98 7.67 8.72 9.40N. America 4.93 3.68 4.27 4.63

2008 2009F 2010F 2011F

US$

Bill

ions

$42.47

$34.50

Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription Novmeber 2009

$42.91$39.69


Materials Forecast By Segment

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Fab Packaging

Packaging 18.32 16.73 18.65 19.58Fab 24.14 17.77 21.04 23.33

2008 2009F 2010F 2011F

US$

Bill

ions

Totals may not add due to rounding.

$42.47

$34.50

$39.69

Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2009

$42.91


Summary• Unit shipment trends

– Bottomed in January/February– Strong rebound into the third quarter

• Semiconductor Equipment Market– At the beginning of 2009, bookings fell to levels last reported in the early

1990s.– Bookings are improving from this bottom– Market forecast

• a -46% decline in 2009• +53% growth in 2010 and +28% growth in 2011

• Semiconductor Materials Market– 2009 forecasted to decline -19%– 2010 outlook to be inline with overall semiconductor market growth

semicon japan 2009 - semiconductor equipment and materials outlook

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