sell-off risk high - longview economics€¦ · 07/08/2019 · august outlook (published 31st july...

Tactical Equity Asset Allocation No. 187, 31st July 2019 1 Copyright © 2004-2019 Longview Economics. All Rights Reserved

LV Longview Economics

Investments. Trades. Macro.

Tactical Equity Asset Allocation No. 187, August Outlook (published 31st July 2019) (1 – 4 month outlook for risk assets) Written by: Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist: dl+44 (0) 207 062 8804

SELL-off Risk High a.k.a. position cautiously (in tactical portfolios)

Summary Extract: “…Globally, markets have risen sharply over the course of 2019. US large cap indices have typically been some of the best performers (with the S&P500 up 20% YTD). With that strong move higher, though, and from a risk appetite perspective, markets are now somewhat priced for perfection (in the near term)…” Table of Contents

1 Section 1: Overview & Summary p. 2 - 3 2 Section 2: The message of the models p. 3 - 11 3 Section 3: Longview Scoring Systems p. 12 – 14 4 Section 3i: Longview Scoring Systems – Key Sub Categories p. 15 – 17 5 Appendix A: Equity Recommendation – for Various Portfolio Strategies p. 18 – 19 6 Appendix B: Historical Performance – TEAA Equity Recommendations p. 20

Important disclosures are included at the end of this report

This publication is for the use of named recipients only and is protected by U.K. and International Copyright laws. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify us immediately. It is an offence to copy or distribute this publication, in any form or by any means, without the prior written consent of Longview Economics Ltd. All rights are reserved. No license is granted to the user except for the user's personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted, or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means, except with prior written permission from Longview Economics Ltd. Longview Economics Ltd. is an appointed representative of Messels Limited. Messels Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.




SELL-off Risk High a.k.a. position cautiously (in tactical portfolios) 31st July 2019 Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics Direct Line: +44 (0) 207 062 8804 Email: [email protected]

Section 1: Overview and summary A period of consolidation, or more probably some noteworthy weakness, is likely in US and global equity markets over the course of the next 1 – 3 months. That’s the message of a variety of different types of our models including risk appetite, market timing and technical models (see section 2 for ‘the message of the models’). Globally, markets have risen sharply over the course of 2019. US large cap indices have typically been some of the best performers (with the S&P500 up 20% YTD). With that strong move higher, though, and from a risk appetite perspective, markets are now somewhat priced for perfection (in the near term). While over the longer term markets are driven by fundamentals, monetary policy/liquidity and similar factors. Over the short to medium term fear and greed, positioning and measures of complacency are much better determinants of multi week market direction. It’s from that perspective that markets are vulnerable. FIG 1: Longview SELL-off indicator vs. S&P500 (last 20 months)




As such, we recommend removing tactical equity overweight positions. We don’t, however, anticipate a major SELL-off (more likely a 3 – 5% wobble in the S&P500 – and equivalent beta adjusted moves in other parts of the global financial market). In other words, we don’t view this as a major ‘eat, sleep, rinse, repeat’ pullback (similar to those experienced in Q4 2018, end 2015/early 2016 and during the Euro crisis). Those more major SELL-offs (i.e. with the S&P500 down 10% – 20% from local high to local low) typically occur: i) when global financial conditions (and central banks) have been tightening (not loosening in the build-up to the pullback); ii) when global breadth deteriorates whilst the S&P500 continues to make new highs (i.e. divergence of global breadth and US price momentum); iii) when there is broad based overweight positioning in risk assets in the significant majority of portfolios (i.e. the majority of market participants are overly committed and overly exposed to the upside), & consistent with that; iv) when sentiment readings are high, and typically have been for a while (i.e. with OW equities/risk having become consensus). Anecdotally, the tone of market commentary also tends to be overly optimistic whereas today the tone is notably mixed (i.e. with widespread bearish commentary and concerns about this market still present). None of these factors are currently present – hence our expectation of a minor, not major, pullback. Added to the above, August and September are two of the seasonally most vulnerable months of the calendar year. On average the S&P500 is 1.5% lower in August and 0.6% lower in September (over the past 60 years). As a result, while we are removing tactical equity OW positions (i.e. in this publication – see Appendix A), we remain overweight risk assets in our longer term (6 month to 2 year) strategic global asset allocation recommended portfolio (see Quarterly Global Asset Allocation No. 38, 5th July 2019: “Keep BUILDing ‘Risk-On’ Exposure in

Strategic Portfolios), as we don’t regard the likely pullback as significant enough to warrant adjusting the longer term portfolios.

Section 2: The Message of the Models On pages 4 to 11, we have outlined four key categories of indicators and their messages. Below we have summarised that message for each key category. SELL-off indicator: Generating a signal warning of the heightened likelihood

of a major pullback and highlighting the excessive appetite for risk in global financial markets.

Risk appetite models: At high levels/on SELL largely across the board. Supportive of anticipated equity market weakness over the next 1 -3 months.

General Risk Barometers: Other measures of market risk are also generating some warning signals. US high yield credit spreads, for example, have been in an uptrend these past 18 months (similar in euro zone). Bitcoin, an interesting




liquidity indicator, has peaked in recent weeks, while various other indicators are highlighting complacency in market prices.

Technical Models: A variety of technical models are signalling the overextended nature of the US equity market, whether from an index, sector or single stock basis.

FIG 2: Bitcoin price (BTC, USD) vs. S&P500

FIG 2a: Colvin model (global over-extendedness indicator) vs. S&P500




Section 2i: SELL-off Indicator (signs of exuberance)

The Longview SELL-off indicator yesterday started to warn of a heightened potential for a wave of risk aversion (i.e. major pullback). This indicator measures excessive exuberance in global financial markets. It’s a second derivative of our daily risk appetite indicators (i.e. which measure fear and greed in global financial markets). Once those ‘fear and greed’ models start to indicate that markets are greedy (in the short term), then the SELL-off indicator starts to build, counting the number of days that the underlying model signals continued greediness. Once that reaches +20 (i.e. approx. one month of trading days), then we judge that the market has become excessively greedy. That environment is typically present prior to a major pullback (as well as sometimes just prior to prolonged periods of consolidation or ‘mini wobbles’). FIG 2b: List and analysis of all ‘live’ SELL-off indicator signals

Source: Longview Economics

All 26 live examples of signals from this model are detailed and analysed in FIG 2b (on following page). On average the size of the pullback (in the S&P500) from our signal date to the local low is 6.2% (with a range of zero to 18.5%), while the average size of SELL-offs associated with these signals (i.e. from local high to local low) is 7.5%. Of the 26 signals: 4 have been patently false; 11 warned of a pullback of 5% or greater (from the signal date); while another 11 resulted in smaller wobbles/periods

Signal

No.

SELL-off indicator

signal date

SELL-off indicator

peak date

Local High Date

(S&P500 index)

Size of SELL-off from

date of signal (%)

Size of SELL-off

from date of peak

in indicator (%)

Size of SELL-off

from local high

to local low (%)

No of trading

days from +20

signal date to

local high

No of trading days

from date of SELL-

off indicator peak

to local high

27 30-Jul-19 o/s o/s o/s o/s o/s o/s o/s

26 05-Oct-18 22-Oct-18 20-Sep-18 18.5 14.7 19.8 -11 -22

25 20-Dec-17 26-Jan-18 26-Jan-18 5.9 11.8 11.8 24 0

24 27-Jul-17 18-Aug-17 08-Aug-17 2.1 2.2 2.2 8 -8

23 15-Nov-16 16-Dec-16 13-Dec-16 nm

22 20-Apr-15 25-May-15 21-May-15 nm 2.3 3.9 23 -2

21 16-Jan-15 28-Jan-15 22-Jan-15 1.3 0.4 3.3 4 -4

20 09-Dec-14 09-Dec-14 07-Dec-14 4.2 4.2 4.9 -2 -2

19 12-Sep-14 12-Sep-14 19-Sep-14 6.7 6.7 7.3 5 5

18 21-May-14 04-Jul-14 24-Jul-14 nm 3.8 3.9 47 15

17 08-Jan-14 20-Jan-14 15-Jan-14 5.2 5.3 5.8 5 -3

16 12-Sep-13 25-Sep-13 18-Sep-13 1.7 2.2 4.0 4 -5

15 26-Jul-13 26-Jul-13 02-Aug-13 3.6 3.6 4.8 5 5

14 13-May-13 13-May-13 21-May-13 3.7 3.7 6.1 7 6

13 24-Dec-12 20-Feb-13 19-Feb-13 nm

12 01-Feb-12 14-Feb-12 02-Apr-12 3.5

11 03-Jan-11 07-Jan-11 21-Feb-11 1.2 1.1 6.4 34 30

10 04-Nov-10 11-Nov-10 05-Nov-10 3.5 2.9 3.9 1 -4

9 27-Apr-10 04-May-10 23-Apr-10 13.7 12.9 16 -1 -7

8 12-Mar-10 23-Mar-10 23-Apr-10 11.1

7 12-Jan-10 25-Jan-10 19-Jan-10 7.0 3.7 8.1 5 -4

6 21-Sep-09 18-Sep-09 22-Sep-09 3.7 4.0 4.3 1 -2

5 16-May-08 21-May-08 19-May-08 14.8 12.6 14.8 1 -2

4 20-Sep-07 15-Oct-07 09-Oct-07 7.3 9.1 10.1 13 -4

3 05-Jun-07 07-Jun-07 19-Jul-07 8.1 5.6 9.4 32 30

2 12-Feb-07 28-Feb-07 20-Feb-07 4.9 2.3 5.9 5 -6

1 12-Apr-06 16-May-06 05-May-06 5.0 5.3 7.7 17 -7

average: 6.2 5.5 7.5 10 0

median 5.0 3.9 6.0 5 -3

False Signal

False/Early Signal

False/Early Signal

False Signal




of consolidation (i.e. pullbacks of up to 5% from the signal date). As such 22 out of 26 times, a removal of an overweight position would have protected relative performance or been NEUTRAL (only in 4 instances would there have been any loss of relative performance – and even then mostly minor loss). Consistent with the message of the SELL-off indicator, which is signalling that certain parts of the global financial markets have become excessively greedy, our medium term risk appetite models are also generating SELL signals. In section 2ii below, we show two of our key risk appetite models – i.e. the Longview aggregated ‘four scoring system’ model and the medium term (fast moving) risk appetite scoring system. The four scoring model aggregates the message of our key four market timing models: i) the SELL-off indicator (FIG 1); ii) the medium term/fast moving risk appetite scoring system (FIG 3 in Section 3); iii) the slow moving market environment scoring system (FIG 3a in Section 3); and iv) the short term (1 – 2 week) risk appetite scoring system (as published each day in the Daily RAG). As FIG 2a shows, the aggregated model is currently on SELL over +1 standard deviation. As is to be expected, the message of these models is consistent with that of the SELL-off indicator. FIG 2c: Longview SELL-off indicator vs. S&P500 (2013 – 2016)




Section 2ii: Risk appetite models

FIG 2d: Longview aggregated four scoring system model vs. S&P500

FIG 2e: Longview medium term ‘risk appetite’ scoring system vs. S&P500




Section 2iii: (other) General Market Risk Barometers

Other more general barometers of risk are also signalling caution. Bitcoin, for example, has been in recent months acting as a leading indicator of liquidity (despite the fact that its role in the financial system remains uncertain). As FIG 2 shows, it has made major changes of direction a few weeks prior to major highs/lows in the S&P500. Given its highly speculative nature, this would seem logical. Of note, in that respect, it recently peaked in late June and had been trending lower since then. Elsewhere other risk barometers are generating similar messages, while there are also numerous signs of complacency in asset pricing. The VIX curve, for example, in the past few trading sessions has been at notably steep levels. This generally reflects low spot volatility (which last week was at YTD lows). A more broad based sign of complacency is generated by our global volatility model which is close to record lows (FIG 2g). This model measures short term realised volatility across a wide range of global risk assets. The US small and mid-caps have underperformed the broader market (i.e. S&P500) since February this year. Whilst not a good market timing indicator, it highlights the narrowness of the breadth of this recent rally. Consistent with that the US (& EZ) high yield corporate bond spreads have remained in a widening trend, following major spread lows in early/mid 2018. FIG 2f: Steepness of VIX curve (6 futures less spot index) vs. S&P500




FIG 2g: Longview global volatility indicator (%), shown with 200 day moving av.

FIG 2h: Relative performance of US small & mid caps (S&P600 & Russell2000) vs. the S&P500




Section 2iv: Breadth Models

From a variety of perspectives, US equities are overbought: Using a stand-alone medium term RSI, the S&P500 was overbought at +1 standard deviation as of mid-July. Relative to US 10 year sovereign bonds (FIG 2i), the S&P500 is close to +1 standard deviation overbought. In recent years, that’s been an effective SELL signal for equities. Looking under the surface of the headline index, at the sector and single stock level, the S&P500’s 24 industry groups are stretched relative to their medium term trend lines (FIG 2j), while the percentage of (western) single stocks trading above their 50 day moving averages also reached SELL in early July and has since drifted lower, implying that there is deteriorating breadth in this advance. FIG 2i: Medium term RSI equities relative to bonds vs S&P500




FIG 2j: Relative positions of S&P500 industry groups to their 50 day moving averages (normalised & aggregated) vs. S&P500

FIG 2k: Percentage of western stocks above their 50 day moving averages vs. S&P500




Section 3: Longview Scoring Systems Methodology overview: In the short term (i.e. 1 – 4 months) the trend in equity markets is driven by the ebb and flow of ‘greed and fear’ (i.e. positioning). That’s why we rely heavily on our key models and scoring systems in determining our recommended monthly tactical asset allocation. The monthly tactical decision is approximately 60% models based and 40% discretion. Our models are primarily price based/price related in their composition. They draw on a wide list of global inputs across all asset classes. There are 3 main model inputs into the monthly tactical asset allocation process. They are: i) The ‘fast moving’ TAA scoring system (fig 3); ii) The ‘slow moving’ market environment scoring system (fig 3a); & iii) the ‘SELL-off’ indicator (fig 3d). The ‘fast moving’ scoring system is timely and efficacious and helpful for pinpointing specific weeks for market timing moves. It relies primarily on risk appetite based indicators. The slow moving scoring system is designed to generate an overall picture of the general ‘market environment’ (including general sentiment, technical positioning, complacency measures and so on). It achieves this by incorporating a larger number and broader range of indicators than the fast moving model (e.g. including sentiment models, technical models, bond spreads and so on). We combine the message of all three model inputs (plus any other models that are of occasional interest) and couple that with judgment (and over a decade of experience using these models) to determine a recommended tactical asset allocation. Models Summary: The Longview ‘fast moving’ scoring system is NEUTRAL (but close to SELL). The Longview ‘slow moving’ market environment scoring system is also NEUTRAL and close to SELL. All five of the component indicators are currently NEUTRAL but close to the SELL threshold (in particular, Bond Spreads and Technicals are very close to SELL). Fig 3: Longview ‘fast moving’ TAA scoring system vs. S&P500

The Longview ‘fast moving’ scoring system generates more frequent signals aimed at shorter time frames than the ‘slow moving’ scoring system. It’s more effective in picking turning points, especially local market highs. The choice of indicators is tighter (it includes only 8 models in total). We deliberately exclude slower moving models which often generate signals (especially SELL signals) significantly early, for example sentiment and overbought technical indicators. The key models are risk appetite based. Some models also measure overexuberance (excessive risk taking).

Our medium term ‘fast moving’ scoring system is currently close to SELL (having been on BUY in early June) This scoring system is comprised of eight models, with each scored daily and individually.




Fig 3a: Longview ‘slow moving’ market environment scoring system vs. S&P500

Fig 3b: Longview ‘slow moving’ Market Environment scoring system – key categories

Our slow moving ‘market environment’ scoring system (fig 3) aggregates a suite of models across a number of categories (namely: Technicals, Bond Spreads, Volatility, Risk Appetite & Sentiment). This scoring system is entirely mechanistic. Typically, a score of -3.5 (i.e. -1 std deviation) indicates a BUY signal (within a cyclical bull market) and +3.5 a SELL signal. The individual categories are scored and then aggregated to create the scoring system (see fig 3a). The ‘fast moving’ TAA scoring system (fig 3b) is an aggregation of 8 faster moving indicators, and is used to finesse entry points into medium term trades. For further detail/explanation of any of the models within this section, please see ‘models explanation’ at the back of this publication, or contact us via email.




Fig 3c: Combined Slow Moving & Fast Moving Scoring systems vs. S&P500

Fig 3d: Longview SELL-off Indicator vs. S&P500

The combined slow & fast moving scoring system is NEUTRAL (having been on SELL in early July)

The SELL-off indicator is an indicator derived from the Longview short term risk appetite model. It highlights phases of excessive greed in global financial markets – i.e. phases of overexuberance. It generates a signal when it reaches +20. At that time, the probability of a near term 5 – 10% pullback in the S&P500 is high.

The Longview SELL-off indicator is now warning of a heightened chance of a wave or risk aversion (N.B. +20 is the SELL threshold).




Section 3i: Longview Scoring Systems – Key Sub Categories

Fig 3e: The ‘Technicals*’ scoring system vs. S&P500 index

*The ‘technicals’ scoring system scores and aggregates the signals from 9 different technical type indicators including overbought-oversold models, breadth models and put to call models

Fig 3f: ‘Bond Spreads’* scoring system vs. S&P500 index

*Bond spreads measures, scores and aggregates risk premium in the credit markets across corporates and EM debt

Technical factors summary: Technical models are NEUTRAL – but just below the SELL threshold

Bond Spreads Summary: This model is NEUTRAL (having been on BUY in June)




Fig 3g: ‘Volatility’ scoring system* vs. S&P500 index

*The volatility scoring system aggregates the signals from a variety of volatility measures/models drawing upon a variety of types of financial assets across various geographies

Fig 3h: ‘Risk Appetite’ scoring system* vs. S&P500 index

*The risk appetite scoring system aggregates the scores of 3 Longview in-house medium term risk appetite models

Volatility summary: Volatility model is NEUTRAL

Risk appetite Summary: NEUTRAL having recently been on SELL




Fig 3i: ‘Sentiment’ scoring system* vs. S&P500 index

*This scoring system scores and aggregates the message from 4 sentiment indicators including: AAII retail sentiment, US Equity Advisory Optimism and Consensus Bullish Sentiment (which is based on market opinion published by brokerage houses and available at: http://www.consensus-inc.com/)

Sentiment models summary: The sentiment scoring system is NEUTRAL




Appendix A: Equity Recommendation – for various portfolio strategies

Table A: Asset Allocation Recommendation – for Tactical Asset Allocators

US Equities* (%

weighting)

US government Bonds

(% weighting)

Cash (%

weighting) Permitted Range +/-10pp +/-10pp +/-10pp

Longview benchmark 45.0 45.0 10.0

Over-under weight +0.0 +0.0 +0.0

Current recommendation

45.0 45.0 10.0

Source: Longview Economics Table Ai: Equity Strategy for the Simulated Global Macro Fund Product

US Equities Equity Strategy for Simulated Global Macro Fund: net (SHORT)/LONG Permitted Range (aggressive) -100% to +150% Current recommendation (for global macro fund) FLAT


N.B. Table Ai used to be an Equity Long-Short recommendation. These have been changed as of 1st February 2017. These recommendations in Table Ai above will now be part of the simulated macro fund (and subsumed into that performance). The aim is to create a 1 – 4 month equity market weighting for a global macro hedge fund, thereby taking advantage of market pullbacks and market rallies (on a 1 – 4 month basis). Shorter term market movements (i.e. 1 – 2 weeks) are picked up in the Daily RAG product.

We recommend moving flat all asset classes, having been overweight for the majority of 2019 and given our concerns re: a potential phase of giveback in global equity markets

The tactical asset allocation (TAA) decision is between US equities*, government bonds & cash with a 1 – 6 month time frame. The aim is to mimic an institutional approach to US (mainstream) tactical asset allocation. That typically requires outperformance from a TAA overlay of between 20 – 50bps (and in some cases higher). For the purpose of performance measurement, the allocation is assumed to be implemented at the close of trading on the business day immediately prior to publication of the report. The permitted range on the allocation to each asset class is as in Table 1 above. Performance history is shown below on an annual basis and on a monthly basis. *US equities are measured using an S&P500 total return index; US 10 year government bonds are measured using a JP Morgan total return 10 year government bond index. Cash is measured using US 3 month T Bills.




Table Aii: Top level Strategy Recommendation – for LONG ONLY Equity Portfolios

Global Equities

(S&P1200) Global Cash

Range 85 – 100% 0 – 15% Longview benchmark: 92.5% 7.5% Over-under weight 0.0 0.0

Current recommendation 92.5% 7.5%

Sector split of Equity allocation:

S&P1200 Cyclicals vs. Defensives* S&P1200 Cyclical sectors S&P1200 Defensive Sectors

Range +/-10pp +/-10pp

Longview benchmark: 72.0% 28.0%

Over-under weight +0.0pp -0.0pp

Current recommendation 66.6% (i.e. 72% of 92.5%) 25.9% (i.e. 28% of 92.5%) Source: Longview Economics, Standard & Poors

Table Aiii: Global S&P1200 sector heatmap****

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates, S&P, Longview Economics

***re: Sector choices – please see Global sector heat map laid out above showing relative PE ratios of all sectors versus each other. This is published monthly with further quantitative analysis each month (at the start of the month). To receive this product, please email [email protected]. Of note, relatively cheap sectors include financials and, to a lesser extent, healthcare and industrials. Relatively expensive sectors include utilities & communication services (and to a lesser degree, IT). ****NB this table should be read as ‘columns versus rows’ – i.e. the sector name above, relative to the sector name to the left.

30/07/2019 10:36 Cons disc. Cons staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Info tech MaterialsComm.

ServicesUtilities Index

Cons disc. 42 35 4 21 11 70 38 69 88 41

Cons staples 59 47 18 30 34 77 48 79 92 60

Energy 66 54 27 34 42 71 58 75 88 60

Financials 97 83 74 70 85 82 83 84 98 94

Healthcare 80 71 68 32 65 81 66 87 96 80

Industrials 90 67 59 16 37 76 64 78 95 77

Info tech 31 24 30 19 20 25 35 57 64 32

Materials 63 53 43 18 35 37 66 69 86 58

Comm. Services 32 22 26 17 14 23 44 32 50 24

Utilities 13 9 13 3 5 6 37 15 51 8

Index 60 42 41 7 21 24 69 43 77 93

The aim of the strategy recommendation for long only equity portfolios is to make the top level strategy call (not to make sector strategy recommendations). That top level call can primarily be captured in 2 key ways: i) cash levels within a portfolio; and ii) top level sector strategy asset allocation – i.e. defensives vs. cyclical sectors. Hence we show in this table both a recommended cash weighting (between 0 and 15%) as well as a split of the equity weighting between defensive and cyclical sectors. We use the S&P1200 global index as the basis for evaluation of our recommendations. *The classification of cyclical sectors includes the following sectors: IT, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Energy, Financials and Industrials. Defensive sectors are Telecoms; Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Staples.




Appendix B: Historical Performance – Equity Recommendations

Fig B: Monthly performance of Longview TAA portfolio vs. benchmark (bps)

Source: Longview Economics Table Bi: Historical performance* of Longview Economics’ asset allocation recommendations

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 bps bps bps bps bps bps bps Benchmark 958 1101 147 553 1049 -131 1271 Longview absolute 1,029 1116 105 571 1086 -94 1317 Longview rel. to benchmark

+71 +15 -42 +18 +37 +37 +46

* N.B. sums may not add due to rounding NB Longer history available on request (i.e. back to ’04)

Fig Bii: Historical performance of Tactical Asset Allocation recommendations (last 10 yrs)


2019 performance is currently +46bps above benchmark 2018 performance was +37bps (vs. benchmark). NB annual target is +20 – 50bps




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sell-off risk high - longview economics€¦ · 07/08/2019 · august outlook (published 31st july...

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