seismic risk assessment in urban areas - …ares.tu.chiba-u.jp/workshop/peru2005/07 olarte...

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT IN URBAN AREASSEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT IN URBAN AREAS

Dr. Ing. Jorge Olarte NDr. Ing. Jorge Olarte NavarroavarroDirector Director -- CISMIDCISMID

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE INGENIERIA UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE INGENIERIA Facultad de Ingeniería CivilFacultad de Ingeniería Civil

CENTRO PERUANO JAPONES DE INVESTIGACIONESCENTRO PERUANO JAPONES DE INVESTIGACIONESSISMICAS Y MITIGACION DE DESASTRES SISMICAS Y MITIGACION DE DESASTRES -- CISMIDCISMID

JapanJapan--PeruPeru WorkshopWorkshop onon EarthquakeEarthquake DisasterDisaster MitigationMitigation, Lima 2005, Lima 2005

1. Methodology to Vulnerability and Seismic Risk Assessment

2. Studies on Vulnerability and Seismic Risk in Marginal-UrbanAreas, Essential Buildings, Historical Building and InsuranceIndustry

PRESENTATION OUTLINEPRESENTATION OUTLINE

1. Methodology to Vulnerability and SeismicRisk Assessment

Seismic Risk Assessment

MethodologyMethodology toto VulnerabilityVulnerability andand SeismicSeismic RiskRisk AssessmentAssessment

)(4

)(2

24321 TSNh

Nai π

ηββββγρ

=

E γ( ) 1 eln 0.5( )

γ

γo

ε

⋅

−:= γo

BSH Log Pr 60%≥( )−

Ie= Eo.G.Sd.T

Ιv=ΣΚj Wj (Benedetti y Petrini)

(Hirosawa)

(ATC-FEMA)

(Miranda y Ordaz)

ComputationalComputational ModelModel DiagramDiagram

MethodologyMethodology toto VulnerabilityVulnerability andand SeismicSeismic RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment

2. Studies on Vulnerability and Seismic Riskin Marginal-Urban Areas, EssentialBuildings, Historical Buildings andInsurance Industry

StudyStudy onon SeismicSeismic VulnerabilityVulnerability ofof thetheLima Marginal Lima Marginal AreaArea ““El AltilloEl Altillo--RimacRimac””

StudyStudy onon SeismicSeismic VulnerabilityVulnerability ofof thethe Lima Lima Marginal Marginal AreaArea “El Altillo“El Altillo--Rimac”Rimac”

PLANO DE UBICACION

SeismicSeismic VulnerabilityVulnerability ofof RimacRimac

El Altillo-Rimac

SeismicSeismic VulnerabilityVulnerability ofof El AltilloEl Altillo--RimacRimac

Vulnerability Index (Benedetti y Petrini) Degree of Damage caused by a strongearthquake intensity (350 gals)

SeismicSeismic VulnerabilityVulnerability ininLima Lima CenterCenter (Mesa Redonda)(Mesa Redonda)

FEMAFEMA--ATCATC

Photo

Croquis

Modifiers

Final Score Evaluation required ?

Occupants

Personal background

Generalfeatures

of theBuilding

EvaluationFormat

FEMA-ATC

Type

Obtained Damage Factors (ATC-21)

BSHAdobe

BSH; 2.00

BSH; 1.50

BSH; 0.50

BSH; 0.000.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

VI VII VIII IX

Tesis Vulnerabilidad Sismica en Mesa RedondaBach. Roberto Rojas Castro (2003)

BSH

Exponencial (BSH)

BSHAdobe

BSH; 2.00

BSH; 1.50

BSH; 0.50

BSH; 0.000.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

VI VII VIII IX


BSH

Exponencial (BSH)

BSHAlbañileria

BSH; 4.00

BSH; 2.50

BSH; 1.00

BSH; 0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

VI VII VIII IX


BSH

Exponencial (BSH)

BSHAlbañileria

BSH; 4.00

BSH; 2.50

BSH; 1.00

BSH; 0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

VI VII VIII IX


BSH

Exponencial (BSH)

BSHPorticos de Concreto

BSH; 4.00

BSH; 1.50

BSH; 1.00

BSH; 6.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

VI VII VIII IX


BSH

Exponencial (BSH)

BSHPorticos de Concreto

BSH; 4.00

BSH; 1.50

BSH; 1.00

BSH; 6.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

VI VII VIII IX


BSH

Exponencial (BSH)

BSHAlbañileria No Confinada

BSH; 2.00

BSH; 0.50

BSH; 0.00

BSH; 3.00

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

VI VII VIII IX


BSH

Exponencial (BSH)

BSHAlbañileria No Confinada

BSH; 2.00

BSH; 0.50

BSH; 0.00

BSH; 3.00

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

VI VII VIII IX


BSH

Exponencial (BSH)

BSH Values and Modifiers

Reporte para unSismo Leve

_

ACAC 0% 0%

ANCANC 0% 0%

PCP C 0% 0.72%

QAQ A 5.04% 5.04%

TIPO BSHL<0.5 BSHL<1.0

TIPOLOGIAS

Quincha - AdobeQA

Porticos de ConcretoPC

Albañileria No ConfinadaANC

Albañileria ConfinadaAC

LIGHT EARTHQUAKE

Evaluación con BSHMayor BSH menor vulnerabilidad.BSH = 1.0, Prob. 1/10 sea VulnerabilidadBSH = 0.5, Prob. 1/3 sea VulnerabilidadLas Edificaciones con BSH:• Menor a 1.0 necesitan una evaluación mas rigurosa, con gran posibilidad de necesitar reforzamiento.• Menor a 0.5 se encuentran en peligro de colapso.

LIGHT EARTHQUAKE

Reporte para unSismo Moderado

ACAC 0% 0.000

ANCANC 2.88% 2.880

PCPC 7.19% 10.790

QAQA 5.04% 16.550

TIPO BSHM<0.5 BSHM<1.0

TIPOLOGIAS

Quincha - AdobeQA




TIPOLOGIAS

Quincha - AdobeQA




SISMO MODERADO


MODERATE EARTHQUAKE

MODERATE EARTHQUAKE

Reporte para unSismo Severo

ACAC 8.63% 28.06%

ANCANC 11.51% 11.51%

PCPC 16.55% 25.18%

Q AQA 22.3% 22.3%

TIPO BSHS<0.5 BSHS<1.0

TIPOLOGIAS

Quincha - AdobeQA




TIPOLOGIAS

Quincha - AdobeQA





SEVERE EARTHQUAKE

SEVERE EARTHQUAKE

StudyStudy onon SeismicSeismic VulnerabilityVulnerability ofofHistoricalHistorical BuildingBuilding

SeismicSeismic VulnerabilityVulnerability AssessmentAssessmentofof Lima Lima CathedralCathedral

SponsoredSponsored by BCPby BCP

Painting “Panorama de Monroy” (Cusco Cathedral) 31 / 03 / 1650 earthquake

SeismicSeismic VulnerabilityVulnerability AssessmentAssessmentofof Cuzco Cuzco CathedralCathedral

SponsoredSponsored by by TelefonicaTelefonica

Seismic Risk And VulnerabilityAssessment of Insured Buildings

In Lima and Callao(8,000 insured buildings)

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT (PML) OF INSURED BUILDINGS IN SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT (PML) OF INSURED BUILDINGS IN LIMA AND CALLAOLIMA AND CALLAO

The project was carried out by 80 peopleamong researchers, professionals, graduates,technical personal and administrationpersonal.

Five Task-Groups:- Seismic Hazard – Geotechnical Studies- Vulnerability and Field-Work- Structual Analysis- Informatic - GIS- Seismic Risk.

2 international experts:- Dr. Mario Ordaz-UNAM (México)- Dr. Miguel Herraiz-U Complutense (España)

Spectral Relation(El Remanso-Molina Vieja)

Foto 5. Medicion de Microtrepidaciones en un area libre en el cruce de los jironesMoquegua, Dansey, y Cañete.

Environmental Vibration Measurement(Microtremors)

Spectral Relation H/V San Isidro)

Geothecnical-SeismicZonification of Lima City

(2004)

Ate-Vitarte District and Soil Type

Chorrillos District and Soil Type

Insured Buildings in San Isidro

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF INSURED BUILDINGS IN LIMA AND CALLAOSEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF INSURED BUILDINGS IN LIMA AND CALLAO

EDIFICACIONES POR TIPO DE ESTRUCTURA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

TIPO DE ESTRUCTURA

NU

ME

RO

DE

ED

IFIC

AC

ION

ES

EDIFICACIONES POR NUMERO DE PISOS

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

NUMERO DE PISOS

EDIFICACIONES POR CONSERVACION

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

B R M NE

ESTADO DE CONSERVACION

EDIFICACIONES POR AÑO DE CONSTRUCCION

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

-25 26-30

31-35

36-40

41-45

46-50

51-55

56-60

61-65

66-70

71-75

76-80

81-85

86-90

91-95

96-00

01- NE

AÑO DE CONSTRUCCION

NU

ME

RO

DE

ED

IFIC

AC

ION

ES

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

NO

IDE

NT

IFIC

AD

OS

CURVA PML Lima-Perú (42 Distritos)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

PERIODO DE RETORNO (Años)

PM

L (%

)

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF INSURED BUILDINGS IN LIMA AND CALLAOSEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF INSURED BUILDINGS IN LIMA AND CALLAO

• It will be possible to count on a reliable informationsource to analyse and to estimate the vulnerabilityand risk conditions in metropolitan scope, which allowto adress the growing process of the city in betterlevel of safety.

• The study above is a powerful tool to be incorporatedinto the Field Planning and Urban DevelopmentProjects in districtal and provincial level.

Benefits to Lima and Callao Councils :BenefitsBenefits toto Lima Lima andand Callao Callao CouncilsCouncils ::

Benefits to Lima and Callao Councils :BenefitsBenefits toto Lima Lima andand Callao Callao CouncilsCouncils ::

• Base Information to the incorporation of the DisastersPrevention Issues in the Development Projects.

• Currently, International Financial Institutions (BID) demand Prevention studies as a requirement to theDevelopment Projects Evaluation.

• It will be possible to start policies, which consider the“Risk Transfer” (Insurance) in benefit of the local Population.

ConclusionsConclusions

1. Integral studies on vulnerability and seismic risk are required for essential buildings in Lima and other cities.

2. These tasks should be carried out by regional and local governments and scientific institutions related to Preventionand Disasters Mitigation.

3. The outcomes in Lima show the necessity of developmentprojects on seismic vulnerability reduction in essentialbuildings.

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

CISMID:CISMID:

www.cismidwww.cismid--uni.orguni.org

[email protected]@uni.edu.pe

seismic risk assessment in urban areas - …ares.tu.chiba-u.jp/workshop/peru2005/07 olarte...

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