second project meeting - breda 13-14 september 2007 mu ltiplying s ustainable e nergy c ommunities...

Second project Meeting - Breda 13-14 September 2007

MUltiplying Sustainable Energy Communities – A Blueprint for action

WP2Energy Baseline Assessment

and Target Setting



Objective of WP2

Carry out an energy baseline assessment within the community boundaries

Define the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources

Set own individual project objectives

Monitor progress of the project objectives



Energy accounting procedure

It is important that local communities carry out an overall energy accounting procedure in order to understand thoroughly the real state of energy flows and, thus, the effectiveness of implemented actions to change such flows.

It is known that the variability of situations among the communities will give a broader base for the choice and evaluation of a generic baseline assessment and monitoring method.

Notwithstanding this, it is considered important that some common rules are assumed by each community, through a common energy assessment baseline methodology.



Evolution in time of energy consumptions


Analysis should be carried out in the most complete way as possible, for the year closest to the time of drafting of the account and according to the availability of data.

It is however essential to gather information even from previous years, in order to be able to establish a historical track of energy flows. In this way it is possible to unravel trends which, presumably, can provide useful information for future developments of the energy system and to average yearly fluctuations due to external factors

Guidelines were implemented for the energy accounting procedure, leaving to each community the possibility to adapt the baseline assessment according to its own characteristics and requirement.Some points are considered important in the procedure.



Energy consumptions disaggregated by sectors


Energy consumption should be split according to given activity sectors, since this allows to specify the behaviour of each sector and to enhance particular actions.

The suggested partitioning is: residential, tertiary, Industrial & agricolture, transports.

Energy consumptions disaggregated by vectors

Final energy use should concern all energy vectors (gas, oil, coal, electricity, etc.) that are consumed by each analyzed sector during a year.



The final energy balance can be expressed, for each year, through the following matrix


Consumption (TJ) Year Energy vector Residential Tertiary Industry Transport Total

Electricity Natural Gas Gasoline Gas/Diesel Oil Kerosene Fuel Oil LPG Petroleum Coke Refinery Gas Anthracite Coal Lignite Peat Gas Coke Waste Biomass District heating … Total



According to what efficiency actions the local community intends to carry out, it could be useful to gain a more in-depth quantitative outline in the chosen sector.It may be therefore necessary to integrate earlier analysis with a review of energy demand for each sector. This can be obtained by assessing final energy uses.


In-depth assessment

Thermal consumptions

Electric consumptions

Transports

Building heating Lightning Private transport

Hot water production Office equipment Public transport

Cooking Conditioning Railways

Process heat Electric motors …..

……….. ……… …..



Potential scenarioPotential scenarioMaximum improvement potentials of the system through the large application of RES/RUE initiatives (potential assessments)

Target scenarioTarget scenarioImprovement targets of the local energy system through the selection of a set of actions (target setting)

Business as usual scenarioBusiness as usual scenarioEvolution of the system according to standard mechanisms; no particular strategy aimed at changing the energy system

Target setting procedureto define a reference short-medium time horizon and to analyze the development of the energy system within this frame (~2015)



The definition of this scenario considers any future change regarding the energy demand and supply

Business as usual scenario

Future population and demographic structure;

Future house offer;

Future services and industrial activities;

Future buildings energy consumption and needs;

Future mobility needs;

Future use/diffusion of energy consuming devices among end-users;

Future efficiency of energy consuming devices;

Future use/diffusion of different energy production technologies.

Changes will be quantified on the basis of the future urban structure of the area and according to the weight, on energy consumptions, of European national and local plans and of the development of technological and socio-economical factors and parameters such as:

Target setting procedure



After the identification of the standard scenario, the potential scenario will has to be carried on a detailed survey of the available resources at local level, considering both the offer of energy sources and the potential of energy savings. The aim of the survey is the quantification of the improvement potentials of the system through the large application of RES/RUE initiatives.

The potential assessments clearly gives a scenario which is feasible only theoretically, without defining any time frame.It describes a limit situation which is compatible with the technical feasibility of the interventions and it gives an idea of the maximum possible results.It is highlighted that, notwithstanding the term “potential”, this scenario has to be related to real conditions.

Potential scenario




Target scenario

The identification of the business as usual and of the potential scenario gives the range of the impacts of RES and RUE actions. It is then requested to perform an analysis in order to:

target settingtarget settingDefinition of the improvement targets of the local energy system and selection of a set of actions feasible within the short-medium time horizon that will identify the frame of the local energy plan choices (SEC strategy)

–identify and analyze factors that may halt the realization of the actions defined in the potential scenario;–identify the suitable tools for the overcoming of the halting factors;–verify the availability of the tools and the needed procedures (of any type: managerial, legislative, technical...) for their activation.




The improvement targets must be characterized by technological innovation and by the diffusion of good practises in large sectors, starting from those showing the highest potential of success.

The final target must transform best practises into “standardizedstandardized” actions.

This goal springs from the awareness that the evolution of the energy system towards higher consumptions and emissions levels, can only be halted by the implementation of extensive actions, involving the highest possible number of subjects, areas and technologies.

Target scenario




Local administrations can contribute to the definition of targets, strategic lines and tools considering their role distributed according to three different levels. It is useful to maintain such a distribution while defining targets.

A precise definition and quantification of targets must be done simultaneously with the definition of strategic lines and tools.

Target scenario


Local Local administrationadministration

Planner & regulatorPlanner & regulatorOwnerOwner & manager& manager Promoter & coordinatorPromoter & coordinator

TargetsTargets

StrategyStrategy ToolsTools



Monitoring procedure

The monitoring process is needed to follow progresses toward the defined targets, starting from the present situation. It helps to make corrections in case reality is not moving in the target direction.

The monitoring procedure has to take into account:what to monitorhow to monitorwhen to monitor

What to monitor

The real success of the implemented strategy to reach the targets is based on quantitative results. Results can be reached through a complex process that require the preparation of proper tools.



How to monitor

Results:The minitoring process needs to be related to the energy assessment process, which can be considered a monitoring at time 0.As a general rule it is proposed that the following three steps be performed:–the monitoring of the energy balance of the whole communal area (divided by sectors and vectors);–the monitoring of the single implemented actions;–the comparison and evaluation of the effect of single action on the total energy balance.

Tools:A list of tools needed to implement the action has to be draft at the beginning of the planning process. Such tools need to be monitored in terms of their effectiveness.




When to monitor

The frecuency of monitoring depends on the actions that are going to be implemented (duration, complexity, etc.).

Monitoring of the energy balance of the whole communal area can be done each year or two years.

Indicators are going to be developed in order to help the monitoring process.




Energy accounting procedure Main results

Community Reference

period Sectors Sub-sectors Energy sources

Civil Sector Public buildings and lightening Electricity, natural gas, oil products Industry Electricity, natural gas, oil products Agricolture Electricity, oil products

Foggia 1995-2005

Transports Gasoline, LPG, diesel oil, natural gas Residential Electricity, natural gas, oil products Terziary Public buildings Electricity, natural gas, oil products Productive activities Electricity, natural gas, oil products

Asti 1995-2003

Transports Gasoline, LPG, diesel oil Residential Electricity, natural gas, LPG, gas oil Tertiary Public buildings and lightening Electricity, natural gas, LPG, gas oil Productive activities Electricity, natural gas, gas oil, fuel oil

Ravenna 1998-2004

Transports Electricity, natural gas, gasoline, LPG, diesel oil Residential Electricity, natural gas, oil products, biomass

Tertiary

Communication, financial institute, commerce, governmental activities, health institutes, education

Electricity, natural gas, oil products, biomass

Productive activities

Agricolture and fishing, manufacturing, energetic industry, construction, trade and repair

Electricity, natural gas, oil products

Breda 2006

Transports Oil products Residential Electricity, natural gas, coal, wood Services Electricity, natural gas Industry Electricity, natural gas

Dobrich 1998-2000 2005-2006

Transports

Electricity, petrol, diesel

Households Fuel oil, wood, solar thermal, electricity, natural gas, liquid gas, district heating

Public buildings Fuel oil, electricity, natural gas, district heating Commerce, services, agricolture

Fuel oil, motor fuels, wood, electricity, natural gas, district heating

Industry Fuel oil, electricity, natural gas, liquid gas, district heating

Creilsheim 2005

Individual traffic

Motor fuels, natural gas

Housing Electricity Commerce Electricity Public Electricity Service and entertainement Electricity

Valby ?

Industry

Electricity




Foggia Asti Ravenna Breda Dobrich Creilsheim

Civil Sector

Residential

Tertiary

Productive activities

industry

agricolture

Transports

Total final energy consumptions (TJ)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Foggia 9.289 9.579 10.004 9.579 9.550 9.814 9.428 9.774 9.639 9.562 9.929

Asti 7.116 7.242 7.074 7.242 7.284 7.033 7.242 7.409 7.493

Ravenna 15.110 17.519 18.052 17.578 19.361 19.458 20.098

Breda 36.344 (?)

Dobrich 908 1.012 1.058 1.918 2.086

Creilsheim 5.843




Foggia Asti Ravenna Breda Dobrich Creilsheim Valby

Electricity

Natural gas

Liquid gas

Oil products

gasoline

Gas/diesel oil

Fuel oil

LPG

Motor fuels

Coal

Biomass/wood

Solar thermal

District heating

second project meeting - breda 13-14 september 2007 mu ltiplying s ustainable e nergy c ommunities...

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