seasonal rainfall prediction (srp)
TRANSCRIPT
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 12013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events such as floods, severe drought, heat waves, ocean surges, etc have been increasing in recent years all over the world. This trend has been attributed to Global Warming and Climate Change. Nigeria has been experiencing this global trend. In the northern parts of the country, drought and desertification have been encroaching on arable land, while soil erosion and landslide in the south destroy farmlands, houses, roads and other infrastructure. Also, communities in the coastal and riverine areas suffer from the menace of recurrent coastal inundation and soil water intrusion, resulting in environmental degradation and destruction of the ecosystem. Most parts of Nigeria, particularly those along river banks and coastal areas are often devastated by flooding.
Extreme weather and climate events are often accompanied by loss of lives and property, damage to critical infrastructure, disruption of socio-economic activities, and in some cases, displacement of persons in the affected areas.
A significant proportion of the Nigerian population is therefore vulnerable to the hazards of extreme weather and climate phenomena. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the lack of scientific knowledge and information about climate change and its consequences. This underscores the need for provision of weather and climate information. The early disemination of such information to the public is an effective strategy for disaster risk reduction.
In response to this need, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) produces the
In 2012 Nigeria experienced an unprecedented flood that affected about twenty-seven States of the Federation, killed over three hundred persons and displaced about two million people from their homes.
Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP)
In Nigeria, rainfall has profound impact on agriculture, air and land transportation, hydro-electric power generation, construction, water resources, etc.
NIMET's Seasonal Rainfall Prediction
and presents it to the public annually. The SRP provides information on the expected rainfall pattern for the year. It includes onset and cessation dates, length of rainy season as well as rainfall amounts for over 100 locations in Nigeria. Temperature forecasts for the months of January, February, March and April are also included in the SRP.
Normal rainfall is beneficial for agriculture and other economic activities. However, when it is excessive or above normal, it may result to flooding and the associated negative impacts. The timely information in
is therefore vital for planning and decision making in these key sectors of the economy.
The information contained in the 2013 SRP, if judiciously employed, will no doubt contribute towards enhanced performance in various sectors and also reduce the nation's vulnerability to weather-related natural hazards. I therefore strongly recommend it to all planners and decision-makers in the various sectors of the economy, as well as the general public.
Princess Stella Adaeze Oduah, OONHonourable Minister of AviationJanuary 2013
FOREWORD
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 22013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Nimet...Providing weather, climate and
water information for sustainable development and safety
Contact us at www.nimet-srp.comfor specialised weather and climate information
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 32013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Contents FFOREWORD 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
1.0 REVIEW OF 2012 SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION 91.1 TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS 91.2 SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS 131.3 STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX 15
2.0 2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION 162.1 TEMPERATURE PREDICTION FOR JAN-APRIL 162.2 RAINFALL PREDICTION IN 2013 18
2.2.1 ONSET OF RAINY SEASON 182.2.2 CESSATION OF RAINY SEASON 192.2.3 LENGTH OF RAINY SEASON 192.2.4 ANNUAL RAINFALL AMOUNT 202.2.5 COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND PREDICTED RAINFALL 20
3.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS 223.1 AVIATION 223.2 ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT 223.3 AGRICULTURE 23
3.3.1 CROPS 233.3.2 LIVESTOCK 233.3.3 PERISHABLE CARGO 24
3.4 COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR 243.5 HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES SECTOR 253.6 DISASTER MANAGEMENT 253.7 HEALTH 26
4.0 APPENDICES 27
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
he Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) has the mandate to monitor weather and Tclimate in Nigeria and provide meteorological
information for sustainable development and safety of life and property in the country. In response to this mandate therefore, the Agency produces the rainfall prediction annually and presents it as the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) in the first quarter of every year. In keeping with this practice, NIMET has produced the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction for 2013.
The NIMET SRP provides essential weather advisories and early warnings to planners, decision-makers and operators in the various rainfall-sensitive socio-economic sectors, such as air, land and marine transportation agriculture, water resources, power, construction, health, etc. NIMET presents the SRP early in the year, so as to create good lead-time for adequate preparation against risks and hazards associated with weather and climate extreme. It is expected that the early presentation will enable decision-makers and operators in the various sectors,
to take advantage of the information in the SRP to optimize productive activities in their respective operations.
The Prediction model is based on the strong tele-connection between El Nino/Southern Oscillations (ENSO), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and rain-bearing weather systems over Nigeria. (ENSO is a recurrent abnormal shift in winds and Ocean currents centered in the south Pacific region that produces extreme weather and climate conditions in many parts of the world). The model also incorporates phenological and soil information as well as historical daily weather data from 39-meteorological stations spatially distributed over Nigeria for 22 ENSO - Neutral years in the calculation of onset, cessation and length of rainy season for the different areas in the country.
The 2013 SRP is based on the Neutral Phase of the ENSO phenomenon. Chances are high that the neutral phase will continue up to 2013 peak rainy season. The other ENSO phases, that is, La-Nina and
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 42013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
...the predicted rainfall amount for the northwest areas of Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara and environs is likely to be above normal in comparison to 2012. Relevant authories are advised to use NIMET's updates issued regularly to control possible adverse impact.
NIMET presents the Seosonal Rainfall Prediction early in the year, so as to create good lead-time for adequate preparation against risks and hazards associated with weather and climate extreme
El-Nino all have less likelihood of occurring during this year's rainy season. The Neutral Phase is usually associated with normal weather and climate conditions in many parts of the country, particularly in the north. NIMET will continue to monitor closely the evolutions of the ENSO phenomenon as the year progresses and will review the predictions as changes make these necessary.
There is a 90 percent probability that this neutral phase condition will persist through February - March 2013 period, decreasing to 60 percent through April - June 2013 and further to 53 percent by July-September 2013. Based on this scenario, the 2013 rainfall in Nigeria is likely to be under the influence of Neutral phase till September 2013.
The predictions presented in this publication include:
(i) Onset and cessation dates;
(ii) Length of the rainy season;
(iii) Annual amount of rainfall;
(iv) Expected changes in the predictions of
these conditions; and
(v) Socio-economic implications of the
predictions.
The 2013 SRP includes the evaluation of the 2012 predictions. The evaluation shows that the observed temperature and rainfall pattern in most parts of the country were in reasonable agreement with the predictions.
In 2013 most parts of the country are expected to experience a normal harmattan and hot season during January – April period. The nights (minimum) and days (maximum) temperatures are expected to be generally normal.
Rainfall onset dates will vary between first week of
March (in the southernmost part of the country) and late June in the far northern parts. Most parts of the country are expected to have normal onset with the exception of parts of Niger state, Cross River, Anambra, Delta, and the Southwest. These areas are predicted to have early onset by about one (1) week. The chances of late onset of rains are low.
The rainy season is predicted to end between mid October in the North and mid-December in the south. The cessation period is expected to be normal in many parts of the country except for parts of Ondo, Delta and Cross River states where an early cessation is expected. However, parts of the Southwest are likely to experience late cessation.
In 2013, the length of rainy season is predicted to be normal in most parts of the North and South. However, longer than normal length of the season is likely for most of the central parts of the country and over parts of Yobe, northern Cross River and parts of the southwestern States.
Annual rainfall amount is predicted to be normal over most areas of the country with the exception of parts of Ogun State where rainfall amount is expected to be below normal; and Oyo and Kebbi States where it is likely to be above normal. In the
oextreme North (Lat. 12 – 14 N) of the country, rainfall amount is expected to range from 400 to 1000mm, while in the South, it is expected to be between 1500 and 3000mm.
The expected rainfall and temperature patterns over the country in 2013 have implications for various sectors of the economy. As a case in point, the predicted rainfall amount for the northwest areas of Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara and environs is likely to be above normal in comparison to 2012. Relevant authorities are advised to use NIMET's updates issued regularly to control possible adverse impact.
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In 2013, the length of rainy season is predicted to be normal in most parts of the North and South. However, longer than normal length of the season is likely for most of the central parts of the country and over parts of Yobe, northern Cross River and parts of the southwestern States.
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According to the prediction, the air transport sector may not experience significant negative impact during the harmattan season of 2013. However, minor delays in flights due to reduced horizontal visibility in dust haze in January and February may occur at some airports in the country. NIMET closely monitors visibility conditions and provides advisories during this season. Airline operators are therefore advised to regularly obtain
AVIATION
meteorological reports regularly in compliance with International Civil Aviation- Standard and Recommended Practices (ICAO-SARP).
pilots are advised to exercise great caution and heed the weather advisories provided by NIMET.
Similarly, during the onset and cessation periods of the rainy season when thunderstorms are prevalent and severe with associated turbulence,
Reduced visibility in dust haze and fog as described above constitute hazards in the road transport sector. Operators in this sector are therefore to adhere to speed limits and also use their fog lights when necessary. During the rainy season, the roads become slippery, and
Furthermore, high intensity rainfall may result in flooding and consequently lead
motorists are advised to take advantage of the advisories issued during such times for their safety.
to wash-out.
Even when the rainfall amount is normal, high intensity rainfall giving rise to flash floods may occur. The relevant authorities are therefore advised to maintain close watch particularly over vulnerable sections of roads and rail lines and put in place the necessary emergency repair plans timely.
ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT IN SUMMARY
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The predicted normal rainfall over most parts of the country is expected to favour crop and livestock production. The normal – to – early onset of the rains, normal season end, and normal – to – longer length of growing season with adequate rainfall amount is expected to support high production of agricultural products including cereals and root crops in the country.
The Federal Ministry of Aviation is implementing the construction of Perishable Cargo terminals across the country as part of the Transformation Agenda. The essence of this project
In order to optimize the benefits of the predicted rainfall patterns, the Ministries of Agriculture and associated agencies as well as farmers are advised to take advantage of the information in the SRP as well as agrometeorological products and services provided by NIMET.
is to unlock the largely untapped agricultural potentials of most parts
Perishable Cargo Project of the Federal Ministry of Aviation
of Nigeria to put the country on the World map of the multi-billion naira agricultural produce export business from Africa.
The information contained in the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction, as well as other Agro-meteorological products and services of NIMET can contribute significantly to optimizing and sustaining the production of perishable goods for export.
The Perishable Cargo initiative will create a farm-to-supermarket value chain, with a spin-off benefit of wealth creation for rural farmers and stemming of rural-to-urban population migration. Crop and animal production are very sensitive to weather and climate conditions. Cultivation, harvesting, processing, packaging, transportation to cargo airports and storage of perishable cargo for export are all affected by weather and climate conditions
NIMET will use the array of its specialized weather forecast products to contribute to the success of the Perishable Cargo and other aspects of the Transformation Agenda.
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT IN SUMMARY
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HEALTH
Temperatures peak gradually from February in the coastal areas to April in the north. In 2013, peak day temperature values are expected to remain high for comfort, and the excessive heat accompanying such high values may affect the people with heat-induced health challenges such as cerebrospinal meningitis, heatstroke, measles, etc. Temperature pattern and rainfall (moisture) conditions are likely to favour fast
breeding of mosquitoes, flies and other disease vectors. This may result in high prevalence of malaria, cholera, dengue fever, etc. Health workers are therefore advised to provide mosquito-treated nets, conduct vaccination activities, encourage people to clear their environment in order to reduce the incidence of these diseases.
The predicted rainfall over the central and southern parts of the country will be enough to support water availability for industrial and domestic use across the country. The rainfall amounts will also be sufficient to support stream flow and marine transport, particularly in the coastal areas. Furthermore, predicted rainfall patterns will be sufficient for water storage to be used for irrigation, livestock management and other uses. Although normal rainfall is predicted for most parts of the country, there is a likelihood of flash floods resulting from high intensity rainfall at the onset and cessation periods of the rainy season. In addition, the usual flooding associated with the peak of monsoon
period (July-September) may occur when the soil would have been saturated, coupled with poor environmental habits. Low-lying areas and flood plains of the central, western and eastern parts of the country are most susceptible. The general public is therefore advised to imbibe good environment practices which include avoiding the dumping of refuse in drainages, and the erection of structures in floodplains. Dam managers and other stakeholders are also advised to obtain NIMET's Drought and Flood Monitoring Bulletins which provide regular updates on soil moisture conditions and prospects of flooding or dry spells conditions across the country.
WATER MANAGEMENT
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT IN SUMMARY
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Observed night and day temperatures
Fig.1c: Deviation of observed night temperature from long term averages
Fig.1d: Deviation of observed day temperature from long term averages
Fig.1a: Deviation of predicted nighttemperature from long term averages
Fig.1b: Deviation of predicted daytemperature from long term averages
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1.0 REVIEW OF THE 2012 “SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION”
In 2012, the day and night temperatures for January to April were predicted along with the rainfall patterns for the entire season. These are now reviewed:
1.1.1 January 2012
Predicted night and day temperatures
1.1 TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS IN 2012
The predicted day and night temperatures were slightly colder than the Observed day and night temperatures. In addition, the observed night temperatures were warmer than predicted over parts of Adamawa and Taraba States.
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Observed night and day temperatures
Fig.2c: Deviation of observed night temperature from long term averages
Fig.2d: Deviation of observed day temperature from long term averages
1.1.2 February 2012
Predicted night and day temperatures
Fig.2b: Deviation of predicted daytemperature from long term averages
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REVIEW OF THE 2012 “SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION”
Both night and day observed temperatures were higher than the predicted, particularly in the North of the country. Day-time observations agreed better with the predictions in the South than in the North
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Observed night and day temperatures
Fig.3c: Deviation of observed night temperature from long term averages
Fig.3d: Deviation of observed day temperature from long term averages
1.1.3 March 2012
Predicted night and day temperatures
Fig.3b: Deviation of predicted daytemperature from long term averages
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Fig.3a: Deviation of predicted nighttemperature from long term averages
The observed night temperatures in the North were in agreement with the predictions. However, the daytime temperatures were warmer than predicted in many parts of the South and Central States but colder than predicted for the far northern areas.
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Observed night and day temperatures
Fig.4c: Deviation of observed night temperature from long term averages
Fig.4d: Deviation of observed day temperature from long term averages
1.1.4 April 2012
Predicted night and day temperatures
Fig.4b: Deviation of predicted daytemperature from long term averages
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Fig.4a: Deviation of predicted nighttemperature from long term averages
The observed night temperatures were warmer than the predicted in many parts of the North. In the remaining parts, the predicted was in good agreement with the observed. The observed day time temperatures were warmer in the North than predicted.
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1.2.2 2012 Cessation Dates in 2012
Fig.5b: Deviation of observed 2012 cessation dates from predicted
1.2.1 Onset Dates in 2012
1.2 SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS IN 2012
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In 2012, NIMET predicted normal onset of rains in many parts of the country. However, the rains were earlier in the Northeast and parts of the South.
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For end of season, a normal condition was predicted generally for most parts of the country. However, a later-than-normal end of season was also predicted later into the season when an update was issued around July 2012. These predictions were in agreement with observed end of rainy season
Fig.5a: Deviation of observed 2012 onset dates from predicted
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
REVIEW OF THE 2012 “SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION”
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In 2012, there was a fair agreement between the observed and the predicted length of rainy season. However, the observed was higher than the predicted over Borno, Kano, Plateau, Adamawa and Taraba States in the North and parts of the Southern States.
Normal – to – above normal rainfall amount was predicted for 2012. In the update released in early July 2012, it was clearly predicted that excessive rainfall and flooding were very likely to occur during July, August and September 2012 in many parts of the country as was observed.
1.2.3 Length of the Rainy Season in 2012
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Fig.5c: Deviation of the predicted from the observed 2012 length of rainy season
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1.2.4 Seasonal Rainfall Amount in 2012
Fig.5d: Deviation of the predicted from theobserved 2012 seasonal rainfall amount
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS IN 2012
In June 2012, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) showed wet and extremely wet conditions in areas coloured green and blue respectively. This provided enough lead time to issue update for the peak of the rainy season (July, August and September). It also enabled NIMET to issue early warning of the 2012 flooding that happened at the peak of the rainy season.
Fig. 5e: 3-, 6- and 12-month Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI)
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 152013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
1.3 STANDARDIZE PRECIPITATION INDEX
SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS IN 2012
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
BAU
BNI
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJBIKJ
IKO
ILR
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
LRF
MAI
MKD
MNA
NGU
OSH
OWE
PHC
POT
SOK
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-4
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0.5
1
1.5
2
4
0 220 440 660 880
EXTREME
SEVERE
MODERATE
MILD
NORMAL
MILD
MODERATE
SEVERE
EXTREMEW
ET
NE
SS
DR
YN
ES
S
APRIL - JUNE, 2012
3-months SPI
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
2
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
BAU
BNI
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJBIKJ
IKO
ILR
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
LRF
MAI
MKD
MNA
NGU
OSH
OWE
PHC
POT
SOK
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-4
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0.5
1
1.5
2
4
0 220 440 660 880
EXTREME
SEVERE
MODERATE
MILD
NORMAL
MILD
MODERATE
SEVERE
EXTREME
WE
TN
ES
SD
RY
NE
SS
JANUARY - JUNE, 2012
6-months SPI
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
2
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
BAU
BNI
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJBIKJ
IKO
ILR
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
LRF
MAI
MKD
MNA
NGU
OSH
OWE
PHC
POT
SOK
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-4
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0.5
1
1.5
2
4EXTREME
SEVERE
MODERATE
MILD
NORMAL
MILD
MODERATE
SEVERE
EXTREME
WE
TN
ES
SD
RY
NE
SS
0 220 440 660 880
JULY, 2011 - JUNE, 2012
12-months SPI
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 16
2.0 2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION2.1 TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY – APRIL The January – April night and day temperature predictions provide weather information on the expectedharmattan and the hot seasons across the country. This particular period has been considered due to the strong temperature variations and the associated health implications.
2.1.1 JANUARY 2013Temperature predictions for night and day in January 2013 are as shown in figure 6a and figure 6b respectively.
oWithin a tolerance of ±0.5 C from long term averages, However, parts of Ogun state are predicted to be slightly warmer
during the night.
most places are expected to remain in normal harmattan conditions during January.
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-1
-0.5
0.5
Legend
War
mer
Col
der
Nor
mal
Longitude (E)
Latit
ude
(N)
Fig 6a: Deviation of January night temperature From long term averages
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-1
-0.5
0.5
Legend
War
mer
Col
der
Nor
mal
Longitude (E)
Latit
ude
(N)
2.1.2 FEBRUARY 2013Figure 7 below shows that most areas in the country are predicted to have normal harmattan conditions at night and hot days in windy, hazy and hot weather during the day.
Fig 7a: Deviation of February night temperature From long term averages
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-1
-0.5
0.5
Legend
War
mer
Col
der
Nor
mal
Longitude (E)
Latit
ude
(N)
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-1
-0.5
0.5
Legend
War
mer
Col
der
Nor
mal
Longitude (E)
Latit
ude
(N)
Fig.7b: Deviation of February day temperaturefrom long term averages
Fig.6b: Deviation of January day temperature from long term averages
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 17
2.1.3 MARCH 2013In the night, parts of Borno state and environs are expected to be warmer; but colder during the day (figure 8). Elsewhere, normal March conditions will prevail. The impact of the harmattan is predicted to reduce considerably with the arrival of early rains in the South.
Fig 9a: Deviation of April night temperatureFrom long term averages
Fig.9b: Deviation of April day temperaturefrom long term averages
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-1
-0.5
0.5
Longitude (E)
La
titu
de
(N)
Cold
er
No
rma
lW
arm
er
Fig 8a: Deviation of March night temperatureFrom long term averages
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
Latit
ude(
N)
Longitude (E)
Fig.8b: Deviation of March day temperaturefrom long term averages
2.1.4 APRIL 2013The daytime temperatures are expected to continue to increase in the North, with associated heat and discomfort, while in the South, the effect of the onset of the rains will reduce the temperatures. This is represented in figure 9 below.
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
La
titu
de
(N)
Longitude (E)
-1
-0.5
0.5
Cold
er
No
rmal
Warm
er
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
La
titu
de
(N)
Longitude (E)
-1
-0.5
0.5
Cold
er
No
rmal
Warm
er
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 18
2.2 RAINFALL PREDICTION IN 2013
The prediction of rainfall pattern each year finds extensive uses in the key sectors of the economy that are known to be rainfall-sensitive. These include agriculture, water management, environment, health, and a host of other sectors.
The rainfall predictions consist of the following:
· Onset dates of rainy season
· Cessation dates of rainy season
· Length of the season
· Annual amount of rainfall.
In 2013, rainfall onset in Nigeria is expected between late February in the Southernmost parts of the country, third week of April in the Central parts and first week of June in the extreme North as shown in Figure 10a.
(Fig.10b. )
2.2.1 ONSET OF THE RAINY SEASONOnset date calculations were based on a daily analysis of the soil water balance obtained by using appropriate crop model which quantifies when the available water content of the root zone at the beginning of the cropping season reaches 50%.
Most parts of the country are expected to have normal onset with the exception of places in Niger, Anambra, Delta, Northern Cross River, parts of Ogun and Ondo States. These are predicted to have early onset
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
20-Feb
2-Mar
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun
12-Mar
22-Mar
11-Apr
21-Apr
11-May
21-May
11-Jun
21-Jun
Legend(dates)
Latit
ude
(N)
Longitude (E)
Fig.10a: Predicted 2013 onset dates
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGOOND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYOWAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-6
-5
-4
-3
3
Longitude (E)
Lat
itu
de
(N)
No
rm
al
Ea
rly
Legend(days)
La
te
.10b: Deviation of predicted 2013 onset dates from long term averages
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 19
Fig.11a: Predicted 2013 cessation dates Fig.11b: Deviation of predicted 2013 cessation dates from long term averages
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
Latit
ude
(N)
Longitude (E)
Dec-25
Nov-25
Oct-26
Dec-15
Dec-5
Nov-15
Nov-5
Oct-16
Oct-6Legend
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-6
-5
-4
-3
3
4
5
Latit
ude
(N)
Longitude (E)
Legend
Late
Nor
mal
Early
2.2.3 LENGTH OF RAINY SEASONThis is defined as the difference between the onset and the cessation dates. The length of rainy season for 2013 is predicted to be between 110 days in the extreme North and 300 days in the southernmost parts, as shown in figure 7a.
(fig7b). However, a shorter length of season is predicted for Calabar and environs.
A normal length of growing season is predicted in most parts of the North and South while longer than normal length of season is likely for most of the central parts of the country and over parts of Nguru, Ikom and environs as well as parts of the Southwest
Fig.12b: Deviation of predicted 2013 length of rainy season from long term means
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
110
140
170
200
230
260
300
Legend (Days)
Latit
ude
(N)
Longitude (E)
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-5
-3
3
5
7
Latit
ude
(N)
Longitude (E)
Nor
mal
Sho
rter
Leng
thLo
nger
Leng
th
LegendDays
Fig.12a: Predicted 2013 length of rainy
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
2.2.2 CESSATION OF RAINY SEASON Rainfall cessation period is crucial in Nigeria since it affects agriculture and other rainfall-sensitive sectors of the economy.
. In 2013, the cessation period is predicted to be between 8 October and 26 December over the country (Fig.11a).
Cessation date was calculated based on the daily analysis of the soil water balance using appropriate crop model, which is determined when the available water content at the root zone have dropped to 5%
The cessation dates of season are expected to be normal for many places in of the country except parts of Ondo, Delta and Cross River States. The rainy season is expected to end earlier in these locations when compared with long term normal (Fig.11b). It is also predicted to end later in parts of the Southwest.
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 20
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
400
1000
1500
2000
3000
Latit
ude
(N)
Longitude (E)
Legendmm
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-6
-4
4
6
8
La
titu
de
(N)
Longitude (E)
Bel
owN
orm
alN
orm
al
Ab
ov
eN
orm
al
Legend (% )
Fig.13a: Predicted 2013 annual rainfall Fig.13b: Deviation of predicted 2013 annual rainfall from long term means
The predicted rainfall amount for the northwest areas of Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara and environs is likely to be above normal in comparison to 2012. Relevant authories are advised to use NIMET's updates issued regularly to control possible adverse impact.
2.2.5 COMPARISON OF 2012 (ACTUAL) and 2013 (PREDICTED) RAINFALL
Fig.14a: Difference between 2012 observedrainfall and 2013 predicted rainfall
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-2500
-1000
-500
-250
-50
50
250
500
1000
2500
2013 FCST RR - 2012 ObsRR
Latit
ude
(N)
Longitude (E)
Normal
FCST
isM
ore
than
Obs
erve
dFC
STis
Less
than
Obs
erve
d
Legendmm
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OND
ONI
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
-5
5
10
20
30
FCS
TM
ore
than
2012
Rai
n
Normal
FCS
TLe
ssth
an20
12R
ain
Latit
ude
(N)
Longitude (E)
Legend%
FCST 2013 - OBS 2012 (% )
Fig,14b: Percentage difference between 2012observed rainfall and 2013 predicted rainfall.
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
2.2.4 ANNUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTFigure 13a shows the predicted variation in the amount of annual rainfall in 2013. The annual rainfall is expected to vary generally from 400 – 3000mm over the country, with the highest amount of between 2000 – 3000mm expected over the southernmost areas. Many parts of the central states are likely to have annual rainfall of between 1000 – 1500mm, and 400 – 1000mm over the extreme northern parts of the country.
2013 rainfall is predicted to be normal over large areas of the country (Fig.8b) This is likely to keep enough water in lakes, dams and rivers, for both hydroelectric power generations as well as for irrigation.
herefore, a near normal annual rainfall amount is predicted for this year.
The expected changes in the predicted annual rainfall are well below normal in Abeokuta and above normal over Ibadan and Yelwa. T
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 21
2.2.6 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2012 ACTUAL RAINFALL AND 2013 PREDICTED RAINFALL
Figure 15: Predicted excess rainfall in 2013 as compared with 2012 actual rainfall
Figure 15 showes cities that are likely to have predicted 2013 rainfall more than the 2012 observed. In summary Ilorin, Ondo and Gusau are expected to have an excess rainfall amount of between 112 and 160mm. The highest excess amount of 283mm is expected over Shaki and its environs.
Fig.16a shows that the predicted 2013 rainfall is expected to be normal except over parts of Edo, Enugu and Cross River States where above normal rainfall is expected. Also, below normal rainfall is likely over parts of Ogun, Oyo and River States. Fig. 16b is a comparison of 2013 expected rainfall with the past three-year (2010, 2011 and 2012) average. The figure indicates that the expected rainfall for 2013 will be less than the preceding three-year average.
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
2 4 6 8 10 12 142
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGO
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-100
-50
50
100
Lat
itude
(N)
Longitude (E)
Nor
mal
Abo
veN
orm
alB
elo
wN
orm
al
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
4
6
8
10
12
14
ABE
ABU
AKU
BAU
BEN
BID
CAL
ENU
GUS
IBA
IBI
IJEIKE
IKO
ILO
ISE
JOS
KAD
KAN
KAT
LOK
MAI
MAK
MIN
NGU
OGOOND
OSG
OWE
POR
POT
SHA
SOK
UYO
WAR
YEL
YOL
ZAR
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
Fig.16a: Deviation of predicted 2013 rainfallfrom 1981 – 2010 normal
Fig.16b: Deviation of predicted 2013 rainfall from past 3years average rainfall
2013 SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 22
3.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
3.1 AVIATIONFrom the prediction, the air transport sector may not experience significant negative impact during the harmattan season of 2013. However, minor delays in flights due to reduced horizontal visibility in dust haze in January and February may occur at some airports in the country. NIMET closely monitors visibility conditions and provides advisories during this season. Airline operators are therefore advised
to regularly obtain meteorological reports regularly in compliance with International Civil Aviation- Standard and Recommended Practices (ICAO-SARP). Similarly, during the onset and cessation periods of the rainy season when thunderstorms are prevalent and severe with associated turbulence, pilots are advised to exercise great caution and heed the weather advisories provided by NIMET.
3.2 ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORTReduced visibility in dust haze and fog as described above constitute hazard in the road transport sector. Operators in this sector are therefore to adhere to speed limits and also use their fog lights when necessary. During the rainy season, the roads become slippery, and
Furthermore, high intensity
motorists are advised to take advantage of the advisories issued during such times for their safety.
rainfall may result in flooding and consequently lead to wash-out.
Even when the rainfall amount is normal, high intensity rainfall giving rise to flash floods may occur and wash-out rail lines. The relevant authorities are therefore advised to maintain close watch particularly over vulnerable sections of roads and rail lines and put in place, the necessary emergency repair plans.
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 23
3.3 AGRICULTURE3.3.1 CROPS: The normal growing season predicted for 2013 is an indication of a likely good farming year across the country. Farmers are therefore advised to commence field establishment of their crops within the period when the rains have fully set in except fortuber and root crops.
Dry spells are likely to occur in Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Yobe and Borno States particularly in the month of June 2013. Farmers in these states are therefore advised to apply caution when planting and to seek guidance from appropriate authorities to prevent economic loss. In addition, plants in nursery and fields should be safeguarded through irrigation in order to reduce economic loss from the dry spells.
Substantial rainfall expected over the savannah regions would be enough to give high agricultural
,
yields crops while the predicted adequate rainfall over the South would be sufficient for a good yield of both cereal and root crops. Farmers in the southern and central parts of the country should plant tuber crops before the full establishment of rains.However, those in Kebbi, Taraba, Niger and the Anambra axis should also endeavour to plant early maturing crops.
In line with the Federal Government's Agricultural Transformation Agenda, which aims at increasing agricultural production in the country, other necessary agricultural inputs should be adequately provided to maximize potentials of the expected adequate rainfall amount for plants and livestock and reduce economic losses. For example, farmers should have access to low-interest credit sufficiently well ahead of the planting season to enable them source relevant farm inputs such as fertilizers, improved seeds and seedlings, agro-chemicals, and hire tractors and other services.
3.3.2 LIVESTOCK Livestock production would also be positively impacted by the expected normal rainfall. However, a good management of rangeland for improved pastures through effective use of the predicted rainfall is recommended. This is to facilitate production of fodder to be stored against the dry season (drought period) and thus prevent escalation of conflicts between farmers and herdsmen in 2013.
Rain harvesting especially in the North in form of field ponds should also be encouraged to avoid early water starvation.
Government at all levels is advised to provide livestock input such as improved breeds, feeds andvaccines on time to increase potential for livestock production.
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 24
3.3.3 PERISHABLE CARGO PROJECT OF THE FEDERAL MINISTRY OF AVIATIONThe Federal Ministry of Aviation is implementing the construction of Perishable Cargo terminals across the country as part of the Transformation Agenda. The essence of this project is
The Perishable Cargo initiative will create a farm-to-supermarket value chain, with a spin-off benefit of wealth creation for rural farmers and stemming of rural-to-urban population migration.
Crop and animal production are very sensitive to weather and climate conditions. Cultivation, harvesting, processing, packaging, transportation to cargo airports and storage of perishable cargo for export are all affected by weather and climate
to unlock the largely untapped agricultural potentials of most parts of Nigeria to put the country on the World map of the multi-billion naira agricultural produce export business from Africa.
conditions. In modern agricultural practices, weather and climate information are applied alongside other inputs to enhance yield. When applied scientifically, weather information will help the farmer in minimizing the negative impacts of adverse weather on crops, while taking advantage of favourable conditions to enhance crop yield. The information contained in the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction, as well as other Agro-meteorological products and services of NIMET can therefore contribute significantly to optimizing and sustaining the production of perishable goods for export. NIMET will use the array of its specialized weather forecast products to contribute to the success of the Perishable Cargo and other aspects of the Transformation Agenda.
Effective use of the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction will lead to safe sowing and enhanced crop and food production. It is advisable that this information be made available to all relevant agencies that have the responsibility of advising farmers on appropriate
3.4 COASTAL AND MARINE SECTORThere is prospect of good fish yields based on the predicted normal rainfall for 2013. However there is the possibility of rainstorms and gustiness at the onset of the season, which may disrupt activities of the fishing community, as well as those of the oil and
gas industry. This may also increase the prospect of flooding and erosion particularly around the coastal areas and may result in loss of lives and properties. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and other related organizations are therefore advised to ensure adequate preparedness for possible occurrence of emergencies.
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 25
3.5 HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES SECTORThe predicted normal rainfall for 2013 in most parts of the country will most likely impact positively on hydropower generation, which may result in increase in power production. However, the prospect of flooding and erosion particularly around the coastal areas as mentioned above may result in pollution of both surface and underground water, destruction to ecosystems and may lead to displacement of people. The magnitude of this impact will however vary from one hydrological area
to the other. The hydrology and water resource managers are therefore advised to be mindful of this forecast and take advantage of the opportunity it offers for proper Dams management and construction of buffer Dams. There is also the need for the National Orientation Agency and other related Agencies to sensitize communities and settlements living on flood plains on the possibility of flooding. It is also imperative that community-based early warning system required for effective grass root participation in the management of flood, be provided and installed.
3.6 DISASTER MANAGEMENTA high probability of normal rainfall has been predicted for the country, but this does not rule out chances of abnormal conditions in some states as experienced in the previous year.
The catchment areas of River Niger and parts of the Niger Delta in particular have higher chances of having more rains in 2013 than the previous year. People at such areas with high risks of flooding are therefore advised to ensure early planning with respect to sensitization, preparedness, mitigation and funding. This is necessary to reduce the risk of likely weather hazards (flooding and landslide) anticipated over such areas. Relevant Organizations and stakeholders should ensure that drainages are
cleared always.
Emphasis is made on the need to minimize all bureaucratic bottlenecks, which could delay timely communication of early warning messages. There is also need for adequate provision of logistics for the various response agencies or MDAs and the provision of other necessary tools needed for effective and efficient response by these Agencies to any challenges which may arise. This is necessary to ensure safety of lives and properties, including farmlands and crops and infrastructures as well as minimize the plight of victims usually displaced by extreme weather events such as flooding.
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 26
3.7 HEALTH The impact of dust particles in the air and that of weather parameters such as temperature, rainfall and relative humidity on health, especially during the first quarter of the year cannot be over-emphasized. Though normal maximum and minimum temperatures are expected in most part of the country during the dry season, day to day temperature variations could create some levels of discomfort. Few areas in the South-west, especially Ogun State and some parts of the north-east like Borno State are expected to experience above normal temperatures. There is also prospect of other air-borne diseases due to the harmattan dust haze during the dry season especially in the northern part of the country.
The health practitioners and government in these states should take advantage of this advisory to strengthen its contingency preparedness, against disease outbreak such as meningitis. Cold weather-related diseases such as pneumonia, cough and catarrh are likely in some states in the northeast, especia l ly Borno state where minimum temperatures are colder than normal.
Areas in the northwest, parts of the Niger Delta and Oyo State will experience flooding and people living in these areas could experience health challenges like cholera, diarrhea and other related water born diseases. There is also likelihood of stagnant water, which is breeding ground for mosquitoes thereby increase risk of malaria.
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 27
TABLE1. A DETAILED STATION-BY-STATION RESULTS OF LIKELY RAINFALL ONSET DATE, CESSATION DATE AND LENGTH OF SEASON IN DAYS ALONG WITH TOTAL SEASONAL RAINFALL IN MILLIMETERS EXPECTED IN 2013.
Station Onset End Of Season Length of Season Seasonal Rainfall
Likely
ME Days
Likely
ME Days
Likely
ME Days
Likely
ME mmABE 27-Mar
2
20-Nov
4
239
4
1134
51
ABU 16-Apr
2
16-Nov
3
215
3
1474
42
AKU 24-Mar
2
26-Nov
3
248
3
1424
46
BAU 22-May
3
26-Oct
3
158
4
1054
51
BEN 14-Mar
2
6-Dec
3
269
4
2226
106
BID 30-Apr
2
1-Nov
3
186
4
1095
42
CAL 9-Mar
3
15-Dec
5
283
5
2986
101
ENU 7-Apr
2
22-Nov
3
230
3
1839
51
GUS 18-May
2
21-Oct
3
156
4
884
38
IBA 27-Mar
2
25-Nov
3
244
3
1406
57
IBI 30-Apr
4
11-Nov
1
196
4
1094
45
IJE 27-Mar
2
1-Dec
3
250
3
1582
54
IKE 17-Mar
3
17-Dec
2
275
4
1470
54
IKO 19-Mar
3
28-Nov
3
255
3
2334
49
ILO 11-Apr
2
16-Nov
3
220
3
1191
38
ISE 29-Mar
3
17-Nov
3
234
3
1184
37
JOS 24-Apr
1
4-Nov
3
196
3
1244
33
KAD 13-May
1
28-Oct
3
169
3
1189
45
KAN 28-May
3
16-Oct
2
142
3
981
78
KAT 31-May
4
11-Oct
3
134
4
537
37
LOK 16-Apr
2
12-Nov
1
211
3
1169
41
MAI 18-Jun
3
21-Oct
2
127
3
552
39
MAK 21-Apr
2
17-Nov
2
210
3
1189
41
MIN 26-Apr
3
14-Nov
2
203
3
1185
34
NGU 24-Jun
2
23-Oct
1
122
3
421
23
OGO 21-Apr
1
10-Nov
0
204
1
1950
103
OND 9-Mar
3
30-Nov
4
267
4
1629
61
ONI 1-Apr
2
26-Nov
3
240
4
1883
48
OSG 29-Mar
2
27-Nov
2
244
3
1341
41
OWE 13-Mar
4
7-Dec
3
271
4
2386
57
POR 2-Mar
3
14-Dec
3
288
4
2231
47
POT 11-Jun
3
18-Oct
2
129
4
639
38
SHA 31-Mar
3
15-Nov
5
230
5
1123
48
SOK 29-May
3
11-Oct
2
136
4
617
22
UYO 16-Mar 3 11-Dec 3 271 4 2411 179
WAR 2-Mar 2 9-Dec 3 284 4 2798 61
YEL 13-May 3 25-Oct 1 167 3 1000 39
YOL 18-May 2 2-Nov 2 168 3 873 26
ZAR 14-May 1 21-Oct 2 161 3 1033 36
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
APPENDIX
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 28
TABLE 2: A DETAILED TOWN BY TOWN RESULTS OF RAINFALL ONSET, CESSATION, AND LENGTH OF SEASON ALONG WITH SEASONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN 2012 AND THEIR MARGIN OF ERRORS
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Onset date
Season end
Season Length
DaysAnnual
Rainfall mm
Abia
Aba
7.35
5.10
7-Mar
9-Dec
279
2356
Umuahia
7.48
5.52
12-Mar
6-Dec
270
2161
Adamawa
Michika
13.43
10.70
13-May
28-Oct
169
738
Mubi
13.25
10.27
8-May
31-Oct
177
787
Yola
12.45
9.23
18-May
2-Nov
168
873
Jada
12.10
8.72
19-Apr
12-Nov
208
1067
Akwa Ibom
Eket
7.95
4.40
27-Feb
15-Dec
292
2708
Ikot Ekpene
7.70
5.18
8-Mar
9-Dec
277
2318
Uyo
7.92
5.05
16-Mar
11-Dec
271
2411
Anambra
Ihiala
5.30
6.30
21-Mar
30-Nov
255
1831
Onitsha
6.78
6.15
1-Apr
26-Nov
240
1883
Awka
6.20
7.07
31-Mar
24-Nov
240
1545
Bauchi
Bauchi
9.82
10.28
22-May
26-Oct
158
1054
Azare
10.17
11.67
25-May
21-Oct
150
674
Alkaleri
10.25
10.32
9-May
31-Oct
176
781
Bayelsa
Yenogoa
6.25
4.92
5-Mar
11-Dec
282
2444
Nembe
6.37
4.48
28-Feb
14-Dec
291
2666
Brass
6.25
4.30
26-Feb
15-Dec
294
2761
Benue
Gboko
7.32
9.02
23-Apr
10-Nov
202
1000
Makurdi
9.00
8.00
21-Apr
17-Nov
210
1189
Oturkpo
7.18
8.13
12-Apr
16-Nov
219
1217
Borno
Biu
10.58
12.18
31-May
17-Oct
140
666
Maiduguri
13.08
11.85
27-May
19-Oct
146
669
Kukawa
12.92
13.57
17-Jun
6-Oct
112
733
Cross River
Calabar
8.35
4.97
9-Mar
15-Dec
283
2986
Ikom
8.72
5.97
19-Mar
28-Nov
255
2334
Ogoja
8.80
6.70
21-Apr
10-Nov
204
1950
Delta
Asaba
6.82
6.23
20-Mar
1-Dec
257
1859
Sapele
5.88
5.67
14-Mar
5-Dec
268
2095
Warri
5.73
5.52
2-Mar
9-Dec
284
2798
Ebonyi Abakaliki 6.33 8.08 12-Apr 17-Nov 220 1230
Afikpo 5.88 7.91 10-Apr 18-Nov 223 1278
Edo Benin 5.60 6.33 14-Mar 6-Dec 269 2226
Auchi 7.07 6.25 21-Mar 1-Dec 256 1851
Margin of error
Margin of error
Margin of error
Margin of error
1-3 Days 1-4 Days 1-5 Days 21-179 mm
State City Long Lat
APPENDIX
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 29
2013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Onset date
Season end
Season Length
DaysAnnual
Rainfall mmState City Long Lat
Ekiti Ado Ekiti 7.60 5.20 8-Mar 9-Dec 277 2309
Ikere Ekiti 7.50 5.22 8-Mar 8-Dec 276 2299
Ilawe Ekiti
7.37
5.05
6-Mar
10-Dec
280
2381
Enugu
Enugu
7.00
6.50
7-Apr
22-Nov
230
1839
Nsukka
6.85
7.38
3-Apr
22-Nov
234
1441
Awgu
6.07
7.47
4-Apr
21-Nov
232
1412
Gombe
Gombe
11.17
10.27
8-May
31-Oct
177
787
Nafada
11.30
11.10
18-May
25-Oct
161
704
Kaltungo
11.32
9.80
2-May
4-Nov
186
855
Imo
Okigwe
5.83
7.35
3-Apr
22-Nov
234
1451
Owerri
7.03
5.48
13-Mar
7-Dec
271
2386
Jigawa
Gumel
9.37
12.62
6-Jun
14-Oct
131
673
Hadejia
10.03
12.42
3-Jun
15-Oct
135
668
Dutse
9.33
11.80
27-May
20-Oct
147
670
Kaduna
Kaduna
7.45
10.60
13-May
28-Oct
169
1189
Kafanchan
9.57
8.28
14-Apr
15-Nov
216
1176
Zaria
7.75
11.07
14-May
21-Oct
161
1033
Kano
Kano
8.53
12.05
28-May
16-Oct
142
981
Gaya
9.00
11.83
27-May
19-Oct
146
669
Rano
8.57
11.53
23-May
22-Oct
152
679
Katsina
Funtua
7.30
11.52
23-May
22-Oct
153
679
Katsina
7.68
13.02
31-May
11-Oct
134
537
Daura
8.30
13.00
10-Jun
11-Oct
123
689
Musawa
7.67
12.11
30-May
17-Oct
141
666
Kebbi
Jega
4.43
12.20
31-May
17-Oct
139
666
Argungu
4.52
12.72
7-Jun
13-Oct
129
676
Birnin Kebbi
4.20
12.43
3-Jun
15-Oct
135
668
Yelwa
4.50
11.00
13-May
25-Oct
167
1000
Kogi
Lokoja
6.73
7.80
16-Apr
12-Nov
211
1169
Okene
6.22
7.55
5-Apr
21-Nov
231
1387
Idah
6.72
7.10
31-Mar
24-Nov
239
1534
Kwara
Ilorin
4.58
8.48
11-Apr
16-Nov
220
1191
Lafiaji
6.52
9.08
24-Apr
9-Nov
200
988
Offa
4.70
8.12
12-Apr
17-Nov
219
1219
Lagos
Ikeja
3.33
6.58
17-Mar
17-Dec
275
1722
Ikorodu
3.50
6.60
25-Mar
28-Nov
249
1714
Badagry
2.88
6.37
22-Mar
30-Nov
254
1803
Nasarawa
Lafia
8.47
8.50
17-Apr
14-Nov
212
1120
Akwanga
8.90
8.40
16-Apr
14-Nov
214
1145
Keffi
8.83
7.87
9-Apr
18-Nov
224
1290
Niger
Kontogora
5.45
10.40
10-May
30-Oct
175
771
Minna 6.54 9.56 26-Apr 14-Nov 203 1185
Bida 6.00 9.80 30-Apr 1-Nov 186 1095
Ogun Ijebu-Ode 3.93 6.83 27-Mar 1-Dec 250 1582
Abeokuta 3.33 7.20 27-Mar 20-Nov 239 1500
Sagamu 3.63 6.83 28-Mar 26-Nov 245 1629
Ondo Akure 5.30 7.20 24-Mar 26-Nov 248 1424
Ondo 4.83 7.10 9-Mar 30-Nov 267 1629
APPENDIX
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 302013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Osun
Ila
4.90
8.00
11-Apr
17-Nov 222
1253
Oshogbo
4.50
7.82
29-Mar
27-Nov 244
1341
Ilesa
4.73
7.62
6-Apr
20-Nov
229
1365
Oyo Shaki 3.47 8.35 31-Mar 15-Nov 230 1123
Iseyin 3.60 7.97 29-Mar 17-Nov 234 1184
Ibadan 3.90 7.43 27-Mar 25-Nov 244 1406
Plateau Jos 8.90 9.87 24-Apr 4-Nov 196 1244
Bokkos 9.28 8.98 23-Apr 10-Nov 202 1009
Pankshin 9.30 9.43 28-Apr 7-Nov 194 919
Rivers
Port-hacourt
7.12
4.85
2-Mar
14-Dec 288
2478
Opobo
7.55
4.62
1-Mar
13-Dec 288
2594
Bonny
7.15
4.42
28-Feb
14-Dec 292
2698
Sokoto
Gada
5.65
13.73
19-Jun 5-Oct
109
749
Lema
4.22
12.93
9-Jun
11-Oct
125
686
Sokoto
5.20
12.92
29-May
11-Oct
136
617
Taraba
Ibi
8.17
9.73
30-Apr
11-Nov
196
1094
Wukari
7.87
9.77
2-May
4-Nov
187
859
Gembu
11.25
6.70
26-Mar
27-Nov
247
1677
Yobe
Nguru
10.47
12.88
24-Jun
23-Oct
122
421
Potiskun
11.03
11.70
11-Jun
18-Oct
129
639
Damaturu
11.75
11.95
28-May
19-Oct
144
667
Zamfara
Gummi
5.10
12.13
31-May
17-Oct
141
666
Talata Mafara
6.07
12.55
5-Jun
14-Oct
132
671
Gusau
6.77
12.17
18-May
21-Oct
156
884
FCT
Abuja
7.00
9.25
16-Apr
16-Nov
215
1474
Kwali 6.98 8.85 21-Apr 11-Nov 205 1037
Karshi 7.55 8.82 21-Apr 11-Nov 206 1044
Onset date
Season end
Season Length
DaysAnnual
Rainfall mmState City Long Lat
APPENDIX
Like a doctor, NIMET prescribes the weather and climatic requirements
for the Aviation sector...
SKIES
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 312013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
agriculture We enhance agriculture productivity
and food security through the prescription of climatic requirements...
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 322013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Activities in this sector are bolstered by the relevant
predictions of the weatherman...
Tourism
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 332013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Telecommunications
Competition in the telecoms sectoris fierce. A smart service provideruses weather data... the masts are
quite susceptible to the vagaries of weather...
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 342013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Our specialized weather forecast provides the construction industry with weather and climate information which guarantees the stability of their structures...
CONSTRUCTION
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 352013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
MARINEOur climatic requirementprescriptions for the maritimesector enhances safety andsecurity at sea...
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 362013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
oil & gas
To achieve synergy withnature in the Oil and Gassector, NIMET is a formidable ally in business...
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 372013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
Facilities in the power & energy sectors are affected by adverse weather like thunder, lightening, hurricane and
tornadoes... you might want to play safe...
POWER & ENERGY
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 382013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
social events
You do not want to work all the way and not play, be WEATHER-WISE ...
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 392013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
sports sports We worked with CHOGM, and the U17
Fifa World Cup Local Organizing Committee... get listed ...
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 402013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
COMMERCE
Times have changed, vision has transformed, action has evolved but what will remain constant is the importance of weather
in socio-economic activity ...
Commerceand Industry
Commerceand Industry
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 412013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
DEFENCE We can go on and on... strategize better today with weather data so
that weather incidents storms do not constitute a danger to life or a disadvantage to defense strategies ...
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 422013 SEASONAL RA INFALL PREDICT ION
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY 43
S/N
NAMES
STATES
PHONE NUMBER
1.
Mr. O.O. Ufor
Abia
08068183876
2.
Mr. C. Igbo
Abuja
08038775707
3.
Mr. Buba A.M.
Adamawa
08058368711
4.
Mr. I.J. Akpan
Akwa Ibom
08037609966*
08026394336
5.
Mr.
Omenikolo F.C.
Anambra
08036142236
6.
Mr. Adikwu, E.P.
Bauchi
08034824468
7.
Mr. W.N. Uriah
Bayelsa
08028693332
08038822237
8.
Mr. M.O. Ikwujelan
Benue
08065351517
08057461691
9.
Mr. B. Sule
Borno
08057275915
10.
Mr. E.O. Effiong
Cross River
08023832965,
08064476782
11.
Mr. K. Osawaru
Delta
08023311111
12.
Mr. S. O. Nwachukwu
Ebonyi
08069426580
13.
Mr. Eric Mmumu
Edo
08077884077
14.
Mr. L.U. Ugwu
Enugu
08056828883
15
Mrs. M.A. Olatunji
Ekiti 08034257790
16. Mr. E.E. Abassi Gombe 08059534934
08036231223 [email protected]
17. Mrs. M.N. Osakwe Imo 08065518281 [email protected] 18. Mr. J.O. Noah Jigawa 08036820716 [email protected]
19. Mr. Orih Kaduna 08051320307 [email protected] 20. Mr. J.J. Abui Kano
08060765244 [email protected] 21.
Mr. G.M. Eya
Katsina
08032656396 [email protected]
22.
Mr. O.A. Osunlalu
Kogi
08036820685
23.
Mr. D.I. Ojediran
Kwara
08033859232
24.
Mr. A.O. Adeniyi
Lagos
08028625370
Mr. Udezor
Niger
08077185673
26.
Mr. Azi, J.I.
Nasarawa
07034634544
27.
Mr. A.D. Ogunleye
Ogun
08080421881
28.
Mr. Okoghenu
Ondo
08077543106
29.
Mr. Adenle
Osun
08032900145
30.
Mr. Olayiwola, M.A.
Oyo
08034825509
31.
Mr. Ihekandu
Plateau
08054415845
32.
Mr. I.S. Frank
Rivers
08037650208
33.
Kiorgwu, M.O.
Sokoto
08036287884
34.
Mr. E.L. Samuel
Taraba
08074159493
35.
Mr. H.K. Peters
Yobe
07057573007
08036851974
36.
Mr. Ageda, W.
Zamfara
08050449784
37.
Mr. A.O. Salami
Kebbi
08036208810
38
Mrs Eze Matina
IKJ F.O.
08038982468,
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