seasonal forecasts using objectively chosen analog years
DESCRIPTION
Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years. Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years. The Technique 2012-13 Verification Analogs for Upcoming Winter The Forecast. Analog Seasonal Forecasting. Look at this year so far…. Analog Seasonal Forecasting. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Seasonal Forecastsusing
Objectively Chosen Analog Years
Seasonal Forecastsusing
Objectively Chosen Analog Years
Seasonal Forecastsusing
Objectively Chosen Analog Years
Seasonal Forecastsusing
Objectively Chosen Analog Years
•The Technique
•2012-13 Verification
•Analogs for Upcoming Winter
•The Forecast
Analog Seasonal Forecasting
• Look at this year so far…• Look at this year so far…
Analog Seasonal Forecasting
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to this year …
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to this year …
Analog Seasonal Forecasting
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to this year …
• Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to this year …
• Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.
Analog Seasonal Forecasting
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to this year …
• Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.
• Look at this year so far…
• Look for past years that are similar to this year …
• Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.
Climate IndicesClimate IndicesPNA (Pacific North American Index)
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
Jones NAO
EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation)
TNH
ONI
NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index)
CAR (Caribbean Index)
MEI
BEST
Nino 3
Nino 1+2
Nino 3+4
Nino 4
Pacific Warm Pool
Tropical Pacific SST EOF
TNA
TSA
WHWP WP (West Pacific Index)
QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode)
NP (North Pacific Index)
PNA (Pacific North American Index)
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
Jones NAO
EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation)
TNH
ONI
NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index)
CAR (Caribbean Index)
MEI
BEST
Nino 3
Nino 1+2
Nino 3+4
Nino 4
Pacific Warm Pool
Tropical Pacific SST EOF
TNA
TSA
WHWP WP (West Pacific Index)
QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode)
NP (North Pacific Index)
NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone
Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular
momentum
NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone
Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular
momentum
Not just the index…But sensible weather…IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry
Not just the index…But sensible weather…IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry
Automate the ProcessAutomate the Process
• Compare each previous year to this year…
• Compute a “Goodness of Fit” number…
• Sort “Goodness of Fit”…
• Print/Save results…
• Do this for multiple indices…
• Find “Consensus” analog years
Last Year’s
2012/13 Forecast Summary2012/13 Forecast Summary
Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Near Near Above Near Near Near Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above NearBelow Above Below Near Above Near
2012/13 Forecast Summary2012/13 Forecast Summary
Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Near Near Above Near Near Near Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above NearBelow Above Below Near Above Near
Climate Division 2 – Willamette ValleyObserved:
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Near Below Near Above Near AboveNear Below Near Above Near AboveAbove Below Below Below Near Above Above Below Below Below Near Above
2012/13 Forecast Summary2012/13 Forecast Summary
Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Near Near Above Near Near Near Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above NearBelow Above Below Near Above Near
Climate Division 2 – Willamette ValleyObserved:
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Near Below Near Above Near AboveNear Below Near Above Near AboveAbove Below Below Below Near Above Above Below Below Below Near Above
2012/13 Verification2012/13 Verification
• 3 “Hits”
• 6 One-category errors
• 3 Two-category errors
On to Next Winter…
On to Next Winter…
On to Next Winter…
Last Year’s IndicesLast Year’s Indices
CPC SOI, MEI, ONI, CPC SOI, MEI, ONI, BOM SOI, Nino 3.4 Anom, BOM SOI, Nino 3.4 Anom, Nino 3 Temps, Nino 4 Temps, Nino 3 Temps, Nino 4 Temps, PNA, PDO, NAO, AO, WP, PNA, PDO, NAO, AO, WP, and the QBO.and the QBO.
This Year’s IndicesThis Year’s Indices
CPC SOICPC SOIMEIMEIONI ONI PDOPDO
Choosing AnalogsArt or Science?
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Choosing AnalogsArt or Science?
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06
Choosing AnalogsArt or Science?
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06
George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06
George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08
Choosing AnalogsArt or Science?
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06
George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08
Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06
George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08
Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07
Choosing AnalogsArt or Science?
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06
George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08
Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07
Jim Little: 1961/62 2007/08 1967/68 1996/97 1964/65 2001/02
Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09
Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06
George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08
Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07
Jim Little: 1961/62 2007/08 1967/68 1996/97 1964/65 2001/02
Choosing AnalogsArt or Science?
1959/601961/621962/63 1964/651967/68 1967/681970/711973/74 1975/76 1979/801980/81
1959/601961/621962/63 1964/651967/68 1967/681970/711973/74 1975/76 1979/801980/81
1981/821985/86 1985/861988/891990/911996/97 1996/972001/022005/062006/07 2007/08 2007/082008/09
Composites
November…
Composites
December…
Composites
January…
Composites
February…
Composites
March…
2013/14 Forecast Summary2013/14 Forecast Summary
Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near
CascadesCascades
2013/14 Forecast Summary2013/14 Forecast Summary
Climate Division 4 – North Cascades
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Below Below Near Near Near Below Below Below Near Near Near Below Near Above Above Below Above Above Near Above Above Below Above Above
23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 1st
1961 21 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 6
1964 6 0 1 12 22 28 18 14 14
1967 0 0 11 11 10 10 22 24 24
1996 26 24 24 24 24 28 29 30 34
2001 7 6 10 M M 27 30 30 48
2007 15 15 15 13 16 22 30 36 36
Government Camp SnowGovernment Camp SnowNovemberNovember
Snow Depth in Inches
Thanksgiving – Nov 28th
23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 1st
1961 21 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 6
1964 6 0 1 12 22 28 18 14 14
1967 0 0 11 11 10 10 22 24 24
1996 26 24 24 24 24 28 29 30 34
2001 7 6 10 M M 27 30 30 48
2007 15 15 15 13 16 22 30 36 36Snow Depth in Inches
Government Camp SnowGovernment Camp SnowNovemberNovember
Thanksgiving – Nov 28th
5 out of 6 years:
Thanksgiving or
Thanksgiving Weekend
Opening 5
out of 6 years:
Thanksgiving or
Thanksgiving Weekend
Opening
23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st
1961 28 26 31 40 36 30 29 28 27
1964 6 4 10 6 16 16 22 30 33
1967 22 20 16 12 9 4 3 2 1
1996 53 65 64 67 67 68 71 52 50
2001 56 56 54 52 50 50 50 50 48
2007 43 48 48 59 61 65 68 74 70
Government Camp SnowGovernment Camp SnowDecember
Snow Depth in Inches
Questions?Questions?
Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near
http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics
Questions?Questions?
Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near
http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics
Questions?Questions?
Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Temp:
Precip:
Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near
http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics