11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE

Paulo NobreCPTEC/INPE

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Current operational runs

• AGCM– KUO, RAS, GRELL, DERF– FCST SSTA, PRESCRIBED SSTA– 15 Members each: 120 total– 4 months forecast

• CGCM – seasonal climate– T062L28, RAS– 10 Members per month– 7 months forecast

• CGCM – extended weather– T126L28, RAS, – 2 members per day– 30 days forecast

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Evaluation of CGCM.1.0 climatology & FCST skill

• AGCM: CPTEC.1.0 RAS T062L28• OGCM: MOM3, 40S-40N, ¼ x ¼ deep tropics,

L20, rigid lid • Ensemble size: 10 members• From each month of the year• Prediction length: 7 months• Period of integration: 1982 - 2001• Atmos IC: NCEP reanalysis• Ocean IC: Restart files from OGCM forced run

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Development of CPTEC’s CGCM 2.0

• AGCM: – CPTEC.2.0 MPI, T126L64– RAS, Grell deep cumulus convection – Shallow cumulus convection (diurnal cycle related…), – improved solar radiation algorithm

• OGCM: – MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 tropics, L50, free sfc, fresh water flux,– Dynamical ice model– MOM4’s FSM coupler

• Parallel computer with 1000 processors

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

CPTEC’s Coupled GCMCPTEC’s Coupled GCM CPTEC’s Coupled GCMCPTEC’s Coupled GCM

InitializationInitialization

OGCM

Tau &Heat

IC

Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast

AtmosFCSTs

SFCFluxes

SST

OGCM

AGCM

daily

ICNCEPIC

NCEPIC

NCEPICs

NCEP

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

OGCM Grid

High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

DJF Precipitation Forecastsanomaly correlations

Nobre et al. (2006)

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Experiment Design: Vegetation Changes

CONTROL

100% BARE SOIL50% SAVANNAH SM

50% SAVANNAH LM

Nob

re e

t al

. (2

007)

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES50% SAVANNAH LARGE MESH

Nobre et al. (2007)

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Rainfall reduction over the Amazon amplified by O-A coupling

Nobre et al. (2007)

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Amazon deforestation increases ENSO-related climate variability

Nobre et al. (2007)

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

CGCM Niño 3.4 SST Drift

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

MOM4 Atlantic Meridional Transport (Sv)

NADW

NADW

AABW

AAIW

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Ventilation of the EUCVentilation of the EUC

Adapted from Schott et al. (TACE white paper)Diferent origins?Diferent origins?

STC subduction regionsUpwelling regionsEkman transports (Me)

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Lagrangian analysisLagrangian analysis

• Trace back particles from the EUC at 20W to the deepest mixed layer depth (De Vries & Döös 2001, Hazeleger & al. 2003)

• Distinguish between parcels from T > 20C and T <= 20C

11.7 Sv

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

EUC ventilationEUC ventilation

1.9 Sv

7.8 Sv

0.04 Sv

1.8 Sv

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 200426 March 2004

11th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer

climate?

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