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Travis Larkin Seafood Exchange United States Travis Larkin is president of Seafood Exchange, a seafood-importing and wholesale company based in Raleigh, North Carolina USA. Previously, he handled shrimp procurement for Darden Restaurants until 1997. Larkin is actively involved in GAA and the National Fisheries Institute, where he currently serves as chairman of its Nominating Committee and previously served on its Executive Committee. He also served as president of the National Shrimp Industry Association.

Closing Remarks Travis Larkin

President, Seafood Exchange Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

GOAL 2013 “Join the Journey”

What have we learned on our journey together this week?

First, that this is a beautiful city

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Five Major Challenges (+1)

1.  Health and Disease Management

2.  Feeds

3.  Environmental/Social Accountability

4.  Investment Capital

5.  Market Support

6.  Leadership

Examples of Leadership in Our Community

•  Responsible Aquaculture Foundation –  Initially focused on Africa

• Education • Training • Support

•  Seafood Industry Research Foundation (SIRF)

•  Seafood Nutrition Partnership

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Seafood is Essential Nutrition Solution

Ea#ng  8  oz.  of  seafood  a  week  reduces  the  risk  of  dying  from  

heart  disease  by    

 36%  

Moms-­‐to-­‐be  that  eat  8  to  12  oz.  of  seafood  a  week  

have    

be'er  outcome  for  baby  brain  and  

eye  health  

Older  adults  who  had  the  highest  

blood  levels  of  the  faAy  acids  found  in  

fish  lived,  on  average  

2.2  years  longer    

Source: JAMA Source: JAND Source: Annals of Internal Medicine

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Projected seafood consumption by source through 2050

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-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 19

50

1953

19

56

1959

19

62

1965

19

68

1971

19

74

1977

19

80

1983

19

86

1989

19

92

1995

19

98

2001

20

04

2007

20

10

2013

20

16

2019

20

22

2025

20

28

2031

20

34

2037

20

40

2043

20

46

2049

MM

T

Source: FAO, HighQuest Analysis

Wild Catch Aquaculture

HQP estimate based on linear growth rate (1980-2011) of production for wild catch(1.0%) and aquaculture(8.1%): •   2013 - 2021 at historical growth rate •   2022 - 2031 at 75% of historical growth rate •   2032 - 2041 at 50% of historical growth rate •   2042 - 2050 at 25% of historical growth rate

Insights from Ole-Eirik Lerøy

•  By 2030: Additional 40 million MT of aquatic food needed

•  We have a great story to tell! –  Time for transparency and a straight telling of

our story…Remember doctors and “internet patients.”

–  Blue is the new green!

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World Shrimp Aquaculture by Species: 1991-2015 EMS takes a bite out of supply

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.6

4.2

Million MT

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other

12%  

59%  

67%  65%  

71%  

Percentages  indicate  the  share  of  P.  vannamei.  

16%  

72%  

45%  

76%  

Sources: FAO (2013) for 1991-2011; GOAL (2013) for 2012-2015.

U.S. Shrimp Imports Down Over 15% Since 2011

0  

80  

160  

240  

320  

400  

480  

560  

640  

1997   1999   2001   2003   2005   2007   2009   2011   2013*  

Thou

sand

 MT  

 Other    

 Honduras    

 Malaysia    

 Mexico    

 China    

 Vietnam    

 India    

 Indonesia    

 Ecuador    

 Thailand    

Source: USDC/NMFS (2013) * Estimate

After peaking in 2010 at 203,000 tons, imports from Thailand declined in 2011 and 2012

and are expected to fall even further in 2013 to around 90,000 tons. Ecuador, Indonesia,

and India are picking up some of the slack. Imports from Mexico have also fallen.

Spanish Shrimp Imports Down 22% since 2011 First a weak economy, now high prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013*

Thou

sand

 MT

 Others    India    Honduras    Morocco    Senegal    Thailand    Nicaragua    China    Ecuador    Argentina  

Source: Eurostat (2013) * Estimate

Reflecting the difficult economic conditions in the country, the Spanish market

contracted substantially in 2012 and is expected to contract even further in 2013 (-20%

relative to 2011). Argentina and Ecuador currently supply around 50% of the market.

Prices Rising Sharply P. monodon vs. P. vannamei (U.S. Wholesale)

Source: Urner Barry (2013)

 (2.00)

 (1.00)

 -­‐

 1.00

 2.00

 3.00

 4.00

 5.00

 6.00

 7.00

 8.00

 9.00

Jan-­‐99 Jan-­‐00 Jan-­‐01 Jan-­‐02 Jan-­‐03 Jan-­‐04 Jan-­‐05 Jan-­‐06 Jan-­‐07 Jan-­‐08 Jan-­‐09 Jan-­‐10 Jan-­‐11 Jan-­‐12 Jan-­‐13

USD/

lb

Farmed,  Ecuador  White,  26-­‐30 Farmed,  SE  Asian  Tiger,  26-­‐30 Premium  (White  minus  Tiger)

Wholesale shrimp prices have been rising since 2010 but increased sharply during 2013, reflecting the reduced

availability of imported shrimp in the U.S. market as a result of EMS/AHPNS.

Diseases***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Access to disease-free broodstock***International market prices

Seed stock quality & availabilityProduction costs - Others

Environmental managementFeed quality and availability

Product quality controlProduction costs - Fuel

Access to CreditBanned chemicals / antibiotic use

***International trade barriersMarket coordination

InfrastructureConflicts with other users

Public Relations Management

Not Important Extremely Important

Moderately Important

GOAL 2013 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture

All Countries

Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

EMS: “It’s Complicated” - Robins McIntosh

A Perfect Killer??? •  It grows extremely fast (competitive). •  It is a colonizer (very sticky). •  It produces a potent toxin. •  Quorum Sensing (coordination of activity).

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Market Impacts of EMS

1.  Trade flow shift from West to East (China a key new net importer)

2.  Demand contraction to accelerate in the west

3.  Lack of quality information available to the public

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Thailand's Recovery Scenarios

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0  

100,000  

200,000  

300,000  

400,000  

500,000  

600,000  

700,000  

2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018  

U  recovery  

PessimisOc  scenario  

V  recovery  

Aquaculture Fish

•  Production expected stable or down for 2013 and 2014

•  Double in a decade? Yes for some species from 2003 to 2013, but slower growth rates now

•  Growth trend declining in general

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Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp in China 2002-2014

2.1   2.6   3.1   3.7   4.3   5.5  6.8   6.9   7.8   8.5   9.3   9.1   9.1  

1.7   1.7   1.9   1.9  2.0  

2.2  2.4   2.3  

2.3  2.5  

3.0   3.0   3.0  

0.2   0.2  0.2  

0.3  0.4  

0.4  0.4   0.4  

0.4  0.4  

0.4   0.5   0.4  

0.0  

2.0  

4.0  

6.0  

8.0  

10.0  

12.0  

14.0  

2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Mill.  M

etric

 Ton

s  

Marine  Diadromous  Freshwater  

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Growth Rates by Species Groups excl. Carp in China

(2003-2013 average growth rate in parenthesis)

-­‐10.0  

-­‐5.0  

0.0  

5.0  

10.0  

15.0  

20.0  

25.0  

30.0  

35.0  

2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

%  growth  

Freshwater  (13.5%)  Diadromous  (5.8%  Marine  (6.9%)  

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New Opportunities: Arabian Peninsula

•  Ample coastline and superb waters, governments beginning to offer support

•  Opportunities for partners with technical expertise and capital to invest

•  Jim Greenberg: “Don’t lump all these countries together.”

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New Opportunities: Africa •  Positives: Favorable conditions, thousands of km of

coastline, growing domestic markets

•  Constraints: Limited growth capital and lack of political will/systematic approach for aquaculture

•  Intl. Finance Corp: Looking for sponsors with “deep experience and strong track record”

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Feed Sustainability: Where to get protein for feed?

•  70-80% of global supplies of fish meal and fish oil currently used in aqua feeds

•  Alternatives to fish protein needed: Soy protein forecast to supply one-half of global aqua feed requirements by 2020

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Emerging Protein Sources… Time to Get Creative!

Algae

Krill

Insects

2

3

2

4

3

Fish Meal Challenge: Standards Example (from Sustainable Fisheries Partnership):

•  Standards established in western countries to suit known production systems may not work elsewhere.

•  Asia is the engine room of world aquaculture

production with a huge demand for fish meal. It needs systems that work there.

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 Tropical  Asian  purse  seine  catch:  40+  species,  including  benthic  species  lured  by  FADs  and/or  lights  (not  all  species  may  go  to  fish  meal).  Trawl  is  even  more  diverse.  

Purse  seine  catch  in  Panama  

Standards Challenges (cont.) •  In this case traceability is very difficult—if not

impossible—and further complicated by species diversity.

•  Solution: –  Accept that “one size does not fit all” in

standards development. –  Diverse stakeholders must work together for

improvements that work for that producer community.

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Wrapping Up: Today’s Issues

•  Carl-Christian Schmidt: “Green Growth and Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture”

•  Health and Nutrition: Seafood Nutrition Partnership

•  Retail and Foodservice Panels

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Health and Nutrition: Addressing Public Health Crisis through Public-Private Partnerships

Seafood Industry

Healthcare Industry

Nonprofits & Foundations

Gov’t Agencies

Corporations Media

Local Communities

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Doubling Consumption: Seafood Nutrition Partnership

Year 2

A. Provide Seafood Nutrition Education. Strategy: Partner w/ Health Influencers

B. Shape the American Palate. Strategy: Partner w/ Tastemakers

C. Inspire a Healthier America

Feb. Heart Health Month

Feb. Heart Health Month

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Year 3 Year 1

Feb. Heart Health Month

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In Summary: We have work to do

1.  Health and Disease Management

2.  Feeds

3.  Environmental/Social Accountability

4.  Investment Capital

5.  Market Support

6.  Leadership

See you in Vietnam for GOAL 2014!

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