Sea Shore Flow Enlisted Career Paths

Unclassified 03DEC12

Information Brief

NAVADMIN 2012 Update

2

Evolution of Sea Shore FlowNone … Close Enough … Optimal

Seavey Shorevey Sea Shore Rotation Sea Shore Flow

TACOMA CLASS (PF-3) 900 Ship Navy – 775K Personnel

Policy: 1957 – 1974Sailors remained at sea indefinitelyand rolled ashore based on time in grade and shore billet availability

Catalyst: Centralized Distribution-Previous decentralized system caused large scale “bottle necks” in moving inventory across the Navy - First computer based “fair share” personnel assignment system - Sea Survey and Shore Survey rotation program

O.H. PERRY CLASS (FFG-7)600 Ship Navy – 600K Personnel

Policy: 1974 – 2008Sailors’ sea tour length determined by a ratio of sea billets to shore billets for each particular rating and paygrade

Catalyst: All Volunteer Force- Fixed PRD required to calculate inventory projections- Predictable sea tour lengths needed to recruit and retain volunteer Sailors - Sea-shore billet ratio provided a close enough approximation for tour lengths

FREEDOM CLASS (LCS-1)313 Ship Navy – 322K Personnel

Policy: 2008 – 20XXSailors’ sea tour length determinedby an optimal career path for eachenlisted community

Catalyst: Sea-Centric Force- Reduced shore billet structure driven by fiscal constraints - SSR billet ratio metric lacksfidelity needed to manage a sea-centric force - SSF provides optimal sea tourlengths

3

Sea Shore FlowOptimizing Enlisted Career Paths

Billets Alignedto Sea Tours

=

4

1nf (E, C, G, T) dt

t n end

t n start0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30

f (E, C, G, T)

Billets Aligned to Sea Tours

Objective Function 1: Minimize Total Time at Sea

Objective Function 2: Minimize Deviation from User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Lengths

4

1n

tn endtn start

_( )Z1= MIN[ ]

Constraint: Billets aligned to Sea Tours = Sea EPA

4

1n

tn endtn start

_(( )Z2= MIN[ ]– ISTn)| |

Objective Function 1: Minimize Total Time at Sea

Objective Function 2: Minimize Deviation from User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Lengths

4

1n

tn endtn start

_( )Z1= MIN[ ]

4

1n

tn endtn end

tn starttn start

_( )Z1= MIN[ ]

Constraint: Billets aligned to Sea Tours = Sea EPA

4

1n

tn endtn end

tn starttn start

_(( )Z2= MIN[ ]– ISTn)| |

t

tn start

n end

ISTn

E - EPA

C - Continuation Rate

G - Gain Distribution

T - Time

n - Sea Tour Index

{Sea Tour 1, Sea Tour 2, …}

- Sea Tour ‘n’ start month

- Sea Tour ‘n’ end month

- User Defined Ideal

Sea Tour Length

30 year LOS Profile

Objective Function 1: Minimize Total Time at Sea

Objective Function 2: Minimize Deviation from User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Lengths

4

1n

tn endtn start

_( )Z1= MIN[ ]

Constraint: Billets aligned to Sea Tours = Sea EPA

4

1n

tn endtn start

_(( )Z2= MIN[ ]– ISTn)| |

Objective Function 1: Minimize Total Time at Sea

Objective Function 2: Minimize Deviation from User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Lengths

4

1n

tn endtn start

_( )Z1= MIN[ ]

4

1n

tn endtn end

tn starttn start

_( )Z1= MIN[ ]

Constraint: Billets aligned to Sea Tours = Sea EPA

4

1n

tn endtn end

tn starttn start

_(( )Z2= MIN[ ]– ISTn)| |

Objective Function 1: Minimize Total Time at Sea

Objective Function 2: Minimize Deviation from User Defined Ideal Sea Tour Lengths

Constraint:

Billets Aligned to Sea Tours = Sea EPA

What Has Changed RecentlyRevisions Incorporated in the 2011 SSF NAVADMIN

Changes from the 2008 SSF NAVADMIN include:• 36 ratings have longer sea tour lengths• 6 ratings have shorter sea tour lengths• 3 ratings have shorter shore tour lengths• 2 ratings have longer shore tour lengths• 4 ratings have been added to the sea-intensive category• 1 rating has been removed from the sea-intensive category• PSs have reverted from INUS/OUTUS back to Sea/Shore• MAs have been granted OUTUS duty credit for completing SWF duty

assignment• ITSs have been added as a new rating• Verbiage defining maximum sea tour lengths is based on Years of

Service (YOS)

4

Sailors Will Serve Longer at Sea Due to

More Sea Duty, Less Shore Duty, Higher Friction

What Will ChangeProposed Revisions Incorporated in the 2012 SSF NAVADMIN

Changes from the 2011 SSF NAVADMIN include:• 4 ratings have longer sea tour lengths• 2 ratings have shorter sea tour lengths• 2 ratings have shorter shore tour lengths• 1 rating has shorter shore tour and sea tour lengths• 1 rating has shorter sea tour and longer shore tour lengths• 15 ratings included in T+X program• PRD grandfather period set to August 2013

5

Adjusting Tour Lengths to Account for Changes in the Billet Base

Proposed Tour Length ChangesRevisions to the SSF NAVADMIN for 2012

EMC Rating Proposed Change

B130 MMSW Increase sea tour 1 by 12 months

C126 ETSRF Increase sea tour 2 by 12 months

C151 MMSSW Increase sea tour 2 by 6 months

C180 MT Increase sea tour 2 by 6 months

 

B640 MA Decrease all tours to 36 months

B710 PS Decrease sea tour 2 by 6 months

B730 SH Decrease sea tours 2, and 4 by 6 months each

B750 YN Decrease all shore tours to 48 months

E100 ND Decrease all shore tours to 36 months

 

B670 NC Reduce all sea tours to 36 months and

Increase all shore tours to 42 months

612 Ratings with Recommended Tour Length Changes for 2012

ACCTI

CTR

NCCR AGCTM LN YN ND IS RP

NCM

RLS

SS AD PSM

N ITS BU AE HT LS SW

EMNUCSS

ETNUCSS

MM

NUCSS

ELTNUCSS

MM

SSW OSSTG EO

MM

SW FT CM

EMSW

GSM

QMSW

ABF

ENSWIC

SW

FCAEGIS SO

132

144

156

168

180

192

204

216

228

240

252

264

Tim

e at

Sea

Ove

r 30

-yr

Car

eer

(mo

nth

s)

Shore-Intensive Ratings

Sea-Intensive Ratings

SOs andSBs serve back to back sea tours to man all

sea duty billets

7

POM 13 partially restored Sea Shore Flow Balance by• Adding 196 in-rate shore billets for sea-intensive

ratings at ATG and RMC• Reducing sea duty billets with force structure cuts• Realigning 1062 General Duty (FAC-G) billets

from non-sea-intensive to sea-intensive ratingsPOM 14 continued Sea Shore Flow Balancing by• Adding 600 in-rate shore duty billets for sea-intensive

ratings at ATG, RMC, FRC, FRS, and NMC• Adding 500 Student Individuals Account billets• Adding 1200 TPPH billets• Realigning 165 FAC-G General Duty (FAC-G) billets

Sea Shore Flow SpectrumShore-Intensive to Sea-Intensive

Sea Tour Length Limit – 18 yrs

Sea Shore Flow Balance Obtainable in POM-15

T+X Reduces 1st Sea Tour Length

8

Sea Shore Flow CategoriesDefinitions and Ratings

Sea-Intensive (17 Ratings) Those ratings whose SSF career paths have been set to the maximum sea tour lengths allowed by policy resulting in 216 months (18 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon:

ABE, ABF, ABH, AO, ENSW, GSE, GSM, DC, EMSW, ICSW, FC, FCAEGIS, BM, QMSW, EOD, SO, SB Sea-Centric (30 Ratings) Those ratings whose SSF career paths result in at least 180 months (15 years) but less than 216 months (18 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon:

AM, AE, AT, AW, MMSW, HT, GM, STG, OS, CS, SH, LCAC, LS, ETSNV, FT, MMSS, MMSSW, CSSS, STS, EMNUCSS, EMNUCSW, ETNUCSS, ETNUCSW, MMNUCSS, MMNUCSW, ELTNUCSS, ELTNUCSW, CM, EO, SW

Shore-Centric (30 Ratings) Those ratings whose SSF career paths result in less than 180 months (15 years) at sea over a 30-year time horizon:

AD, AME, AG, AS, AZ, PR, MR, ETSW, IT, CTM, CTT, IS, MC, LN, MA, NC, PS, RP, YN, ETSRF, MN, MT, LSSS, YNSS, ITS, ND, BU, CE, EA, UT

Shore-Intensive (7 Ratings) Those ratings that do not have career paths defined by SSF:

AC, CTI, CTN, CTR, MU, NCCR, HM Notes:SEAL (SO) and SWCC (SB) follow special career paths and remain operational for over 10 yearsNuclear power trained ratings follow career paths as designated by Naval Reactors

ABE 166 ABE 180

ABF 75 ABF 91

ABF 33 ABF 31

ABH 246ABH 267

ABH 69

AO 234AO 224

AO 259

AO 246 AO 226 AO 198 AO 133

ENSW 184ENSW 222

ENSW 151

ENSW 35 ENSW 55 ENSW 79 ENSW 110

GSE 16

GSE 50GSM 172

GSM 231

GSM 175

GSM 61 GSM 68 GSM 72 GSM 98

DC 114

DC 156

DC 116

DC 4 DC 11 DC 24 DC 30

EMSW 145

EMSW 287

EMSW 149

ICSW 33

ICSW 48

ICSW 23

FC 50

FC 76

FC 66

FCAEGIS 35

FCAEGIS 63

FCAEGIS 99

FCAEGIS 4 FCAEGIS 17 FCAEGIS 30

BM 114

BM 246

BM 157

QMSW 5

QMSW 50

QMSW 59

SH 6

SH 59

SH 62

EOD 12

EOD 6

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

FY12(1607 Gaps)

FY13(2256 Gaps)

FY14(1418 Gaps)

FY15(346 Gaps)

FY16(364 Gaps)

FY17(390 Gaps)

FY18(432 Gaps)

Sea Shore Flow Gap AnalysisSystemic Gaps for Sea-Intensive Ratings

9

Pro

ject

ed S

yste

mic

Sea

Du

ty B

ille

t G

aps

Sh

ore

Du

ty B

ille

ts N

eed

ed t

o B

alan

ce S

SF

Sea Shore Flow Balancing …reduces over 1900 systemic sea duty billet gaps Sea Shore Flow Balance Was Partially Restored by …realigning 1227 general duty (FAC-G) billets from non-sea-intensive ratings to sea-intensive ratings …adding ~800 in-rate shore duty billets for sea-intensive ratings in RMC’s, ATG’s, FRC’s, FRS’s, and NMC’s …reducing force structure as part of POM-13

10

Sea Shore FlowLeaky Bucket Analogy

Tour 4

Tour 1

Tour 3

Tour 2

Sea Shore Flow Model Projects flow from sea to shore, using- EPA Length of Service Spread- Continuation Rates- Gain DistributionsFlow projection used to set tour lengths to sustain 100% manning.

Attrition Rate

Accessions

Sea Tour 1

Shore Tour 1

Sea Tour 2

Flow Rate EPA

Continuation Rate

Improve SSF by Increasing Retention and/or Accessions