sea level & ice sheets concern about the future of inhabited coastlines presented by beth...
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Sea Level & Ice SheetsSea Level & Ice SheetsConcern about the Future of Inhabited CoastlinesConcern about the Future of Inhabited Coastlines
Presented byPresented byBeth CaissieBeth Caissie
(thanks to Ken Miller, Rutgers, for many of his slides)
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Sources: Petit et al. (1999) Nature 399, 429-436 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA
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Source: Labeyrie et al (2003) In: Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future, Springer.
Sea level history over the past 450,000 years
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Lambeck et al., 2002, based on tropical & subtropical records
TODAY
Last interglacial
Ful
l Gla
cial
Global Sea Level
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Ice from the Ocean makes ice sheets, so
sea level drops
When Ice sheets melt,
sea level goes up.
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Antarctica
West East
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Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today?
.
Melting Ice Caps and Glaciers:• Melting land ice adds to ocean volume (sea ice does not)
• Greenland is thinning today, but didn’t disappear during the Last Interglacial
• IPCC2001: near 0
• Cazenave & Nerem (2004): >0.15 mm/yr
• Sterns & Hamilton (2007): 0.57 mm/y
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Muir Glacier
1941, William Field
2004, Bruce Molnia
From the Glacier photograph collection. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology.http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/repeat_photography.html
Glacial Retreat•Most glaciers world-wide are in retreat•Alpine glaciers contribute 0.6 mm/yr to sea level rise•Why are some advancing?
•Increased snow
Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today?
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Why Is Global Sea Level Rising Today?Thermal Expansion:
• ocean has gained heat
• Warmer water less dense global 20th century warming ~0.6°C • 1.6 mm/yr sea-level rise
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Brazil
Atlantic City NJ
Should I Sell My Shore House?Should I Sell My Shore House?
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Fi gure 5. 13•Overall 10-20cm rise in 20th century•20th century average rate of sea level rise: 1.7±0.3mm/yr •1950-2000 1.8±0.3mm/yr•1993-2003 accelerated to 3.1±0.7 mm/yr
ObservationsObservations(Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry Data)(Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry Data)
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Sea-Level Forecast: IPCC 200740 cm (1.25 ft) rise by 2100
1 m (3.3 ft) by 2200 IPCC 2007 error: 20-60 cm (does not include ice sheet melting)
http://www.realclimate.org/images/sealevel_1.jpg
2007
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Recent Global Sea Level Rise Estimates
Del
ta C
omm
.
WB
GU
Data
Data:Church and White (2006)Scenarios 2100:50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007)55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008)Scenarios 2200:150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008)Scenarios 2300:250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on
Global Change, WBGU, 2006)
Slide from Rahmstorf web site
Best Estimate = 80 cm of SL Rise by 2100, 1 m is not out of the question
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Human stabilized
Natural movement400 m
Long Beach Island, NJ
Courtesy N. Psuty
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http://www.learnnc.org/lp/editions/cede_smsandvol/323
Sea Level Rise – like this?No !
Gradual sea level rise and storm events causing this?Highly likely!
(from Day After Tomorrow)
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The Nile River Delta
1 m SL Rise would impact
6.1 Million people
4500 km2 cropland
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http://www.geo.umass.edu/stategeologist/frame_maps.htm
Boston