scottish referendum: latest predictions media briefing · 2014-06-19 · latest predictions media...

Scottish Referendum: Latest Predictions

Media Briefing

Tuesday 17th June

The State of the Referendum Race

John Curtice

whatscotlandthinks.org

@whatscotsthink

The Two Halves

• What is the state of the race?

• What seems capable of shifting votes?

Recent Excitement - Survation

Downloaded from whatscotlandthinks.org. Don’t Knows excluded

Recent Excitement- Panelbase


Recent Excitement - ICM


44%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Latest Average

Yes No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes No

www.scotcen.org.uk

@ScotCen

www.whatscotlandthinks.org

@WhatScotsThink

Poll of Polls: 12/06/2014

The figure to the right shows the average Yes

and No vote in the last six polls to have been

conducted. The figure below shows how this

average has shifted during the campaign. 'Don't

know' responses are excluded and all

calculations have been rounded to the nearest

whole number.

Each dot on this graph represents the last reading of the average of six. Note that the spacing is not representative of the actual time between poll readings.

WST’s Poll of Polls Over Time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

29

.11

.13

5.1

2.1

3

10

.12

.13

24

.1.1

4

31

.1.1

4

7.2

.14

18

.2.1

4

21

.2.1

4

28

.2.1

4

7.3

.13

21

.3.1

4

2.4

.14

7.4

.14

15

.4.1

4

28

.4.1

4

8.5

.14

14

.5.1

4

28

.5.1

4

10

.6.1

4

12

.6.1

4

Yes No

Each entry is average of last six polls to be conducted by that date. Don’t Knows excluded

A Longer View

38 39 39 41 43 44

62 61 61 59 57 56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Feb-May13

July-Sept.13

Oct-Dec.13

Jan-midFeb. 14

Mid Feb-Mar 14

Apr - June14

% v

ote

Yes

No

Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May 13; 11 July-Oct 13; 8 Oct-Dec. 1;, 7 Jan-mid Feb 14; 12 mid-Feb-Mar 14; 15 Apr-June 14. Don’t Knows excluded

House Differences

46 45 44 41 40

38

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Panelbase ICM Survation TNS BMRB YouGov Ipsos MORI

% Y

es

Based on all polls since Jan. Don’t Knows excluded

The Don’t Knows

28

15

33

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

TNS Others YouGov - AV ICM - AV

First two columns based on polls conducted April & May

A Spectrum of Indecision

52

13

14

15

5

%

Definitely decided

Almost Decided

Have Idea, Not Final

Not Made Any Decision

Won't Vote

Source: TNS BMRB

Partly A Question of Identity

67

46

16 9 7

18

39

71

81 87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sc not Br More Sc thanBr

Equal More Br thanSc

Br not Sc

Yes

No

Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator

But Identity Largely Unchanging (and Dual)

24 23 24 23 22 24

30 27 28 26 25 24

33 33 33 34 33 34

4 5 5 7

6 6

7 9 8 8 9 9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb May Sept Dec Feb May

Sc not Br More Sc than Br Equal More Br than Sc Br not Sc

Source: Ipsos MORI

Scotland’s Future - Equality

27

31 33

36 33 33 34 34

31 32 30 31 31 28

20 21 19

16 16 16

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sept Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Less No Difference More

Source: ICM Research

Scotland’s Future - Economy

31 35 35

38 37 32

35

6 7 7 6 7 7 6

48

42 46

43 41 46 44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Better No Difference Worse

Source: ICM Research

Economy Matters More

88

1

63

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Better Worse

% Yes

Economy

Equality

Source: ICM Research June 2014. Don’t Knows included in denominator

And Tracks Ref VI Better

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


No Lead Net Economy Net Equality

Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows included in denominators

Summary

• The No lead narrowed in the winter – and may now have done so a bit more.

• Still important differences between polls.

• People’s sense of national identity provides a starting point, but is far from being a sole determinant

• Thus the importance of the debate about the economy (but less so equality). Yes progress on this issue helps explain the smaller No lead

Voting Intention and devolution preferences at the Scottish Referendum

Professor Ed Fieldhouse, University of Manchester

Political Studies Association June 17th 2014

Devolution splits the no vote

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Welfare NHS Schools Defence Taxes Police

UK Parliament should make most important decisions

Don’t know

No

Yes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Welfare NHS Schools Defence Taxes Police

Scottish Parliamant shoulds make most important decisions

Don’t know

No

Yes

Scottish constitutional preference Qs

• If Scotland votes to remain part of the United Kingdom, *should* the Scottish Parliament have more powers than it does at present, fewer powers, or should the Parliament's powers stay about the same as they are now.

• And if Scotland votes to remain part of the United Kingdom, do you think that the powers devolved to the Scottish parliament *will* change?

Think

devolution

will

happen

anyway

Want more devolution

NO YES

Vote no

11%

Vote yes

26%

Vote no

9%

Vote yes?

41%

YES

NO

Think

devolution

will

happen

anyway


NO YES

Vote no

11%

Vote yes

26%

Vote no

9%

Vote yes?

41%

YES

NO

Distribution of four groups within the Scottish sample

Think

devolution

will

happen

anyway


NO YES

Vote no

7%

Vote yes

71%

Vote no

3%

Vote yes?

35%

YES

NO

Intention to vote ‘yes’ in referendum by group in sample

Support for Independence

37.2 39.3

51.2 52.1

11.6 8.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

All voters Very likely tovote

Yes

No

Don’t know

British Election Study Internet Panel wave 1.

Question:

As you may know, a referendum on independence will be held in Scotland on 18th September 2014. Voters will be asked, "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Do you think you will vote "Yes" or "No"?

Data collected between 20th February and 9th March 2014

N = 4139

Devolution deficit?

• 42% of Scottish sample want more devolution than they expect to get if Scotland votes ‘No’

• Includes some who fear losing powers as well as those who want more powers

• Most will vote ‘Yes’ 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Expectationsmet

Expectationsunmet

Yes

No

Will not vote

Don’t know

Modelling the Yes vote: devolution matters but “it’s the economy stupid”

What matters?

1. General economy worse under independence

2. Personal economic impact 3. Scottish Government

approval 4. Uncertainty about

independence 5. Wants Scottish tax raising

powers 6. Devo expectations unmet 7. Born in Scotland 8. Believe can keep the £

And what doesn’t • Scottishness • Age • Gender

Note: logistic regression – will vote yes. % correctly ‘predicted’ 93%

Undecided voters: which will they lean?

• 8% of BES sample don’t know which way they will vote but say they are ‘very likely to vote’

• Less likely (29%) than the sample overall (44%) to expect devolution preferences to be met in Union

• Less likely (18%) to think general economic situation would be worse (46% overall)

But…. • Less likely (13%) to think

they would be personally better off (22% overall)

Additional information

Would you be Personally Economically Better

Off

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Very

unlikely

Fairly

unlikely

Neither Fairly

likely

Very likely Don't Know

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Will Vote No Will Vote Yes Will Not Vote Don't Know

Source: BES Panel Survey Data 20th Feb-9th March 2014 N=4,128

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Very unlikely Fairly unlikely Neither Fairly Likely Very Likely Don't Know

Pe

rce

nta

ge

The general economic situation in Scotland would be worse


Source: BES Internet Panel Survey Data 20th Feb-9th March 2014 N=4,129

Vote Intention & Approval of Scottish Government

0%10%

20%30%

40%50%

60%70%

80%90%

100%

Strongly

disapprove

Disapprove Neither Approve Strongly

Approve

Don't Know

Pe

rce

nta

ge


Source: BES Internet Panel Survey Data 20th Feb-9th March 2014

N=4,131

Risk and Attitudes to Constitutional Change

Ailsa Henderson, Politics & International Relations

University of Edinburgh

Liam Delaney, Stirling Management School

University of Stirling

Robert Lineira, Politics & International Relations

University of Edinburgh

Overview

• Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change – Behavioural section:

• Analysis of comparative data from previous referendums

• New data collection: – Survey of business leaders

– General population survey: Risk and Constitutional Attitudes Survey

– Lab experiments

• Political behaviour (vote choice), behavioural economics

• Processing of risk including economic risk – Risk perceptions

– Risk aversion

– Attitudes to and visions of future

• Administered by ICM in June 2014

• 1,188/2000 respondents (THESE ARE PRELIMINARY DATA)

• Questionnaire – Wide range of demographic variables & political controls

– Measures of risk aversion and future orientation validated in recent papers

– Constitutional preferences, vote choice and certainty of voting

– Attitudes to the referendum process

– Political knowledge

– Expectations in event of a Yes and No vote (assessments of risk)

– Behaviours to mitigate against risk

– Experiments

Survey

Likelihood of Voting

78%

12

4 1 2 2

Very likelythat I will

vote

Fairly likely Neitherlikely norunlikely

Fairlyunlikely

Veryunlikely that

I will vote

DK/NA

N=1188

% %

Yes. Scotland should be an independent country 35.0 42.1

No. Scotland should not be an independent country 48.1 57.9

I have not decided yet 11.5 --

Won’t vote/DK/NA 5.4 --

...and Voting Intention

Certainty of Vote Choice

1

6

30

63%

3 7

30

60%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

I have an idea how I willvote but it is very likely I

will change my mind

I have an idea how I willvote but it is likely I will

change my mind

I have an idea how I willvote but it is very unlikely

I will change my mind

I know how I will vote andI will absolutely not

change my mind

No voters Yes voters

N=1114

Assessments of the referendum process

Total agree

The independence debate is giving ordinary people a say in Scotland’s future

61.4

For the first time in a long time I’m paying attention to politics because of the

referendum campaign

40.4

The independence debate is so complicated, a person like me can’t make

much sense of it

28.8*

Extending the right to vote to 16 and 17 year olds is giving young people an

important opportunity to vote in the referendum

50.1

Both sides of the referendum debate have had a fair chance to represent their

point of view

56.1

The referendum campaign has been well regulated by the independent

Electoral Commission

25.0

N=1131, * neither agree nor disagree 49.1%

BUT …

Total agree

I’m not convinced either campaign side has been telling the

whole truth about the consequences of independence

58.4

I’m not sure either campaign can accurately estimate the true

consequences of independence

69.8

I don’t think anyone knows whether an independent Scotland

could become part of the European Union

58.0

Assessments of the referendum process

N=1131

Political knowledge

True False Don’t

Know

To continue to use UK pound sterling as its currency 46.4 3.4 47.5

To send MPs from an independent Scotland to Westminster 9.1 29.8 59.3

To continue to have the Queen as head of State 44.2 4.0 49.2

To establish a UK-wide oil revenue sharing commission 9.7 25.5 62.0

To join NATO 30.2 6.3 60.3

To lower the voting age to 16 33.0 6.9 57.2

To be protected by the UK Army 10.0 22.0 65.0

To move from metric back to imperial measures 3.1 37.7 56.1

To have monetary policy set by the Bank of England 18.5 18.5 60.0

To temporarily suspend voting rights for Scottish residents

in the 2015 UK General Election

6.5 25.4 64.7

Which of the following did the White Paper propose for an independent Scotland?

N=1188

Political Knowledge by Voting

No %

Yes %

To continue to use UK pound sterling as its currency - True 45 58

To continue to have the Queen as Head of State - True 44 53

To lower the voting age to 16 - True 33 41

To join NATO, the North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation - True 28 43

To have monetary policy set by the Bank of England - True 20 23

To establish a UK-wide oil revenue sharing commission - False 10 10

To be protected by the UK Army - False 10 12

To send MPs from an independent Scotland to Westminster - False 7 11

To temporarily suspend voting rights for Scottish residents in the 2015 UK General Election - False

7 8

To move from metric back to imperial measures - False 3 3

Which of the following did the White Paper propose for an independent Scotland?

Results are % of respondents identifying correct answer

Risk and Constitutional Attitudes

Relationship between visions of future and risk

• Risk aversion and constitutional preferences • Visions of future and constitutional preferences • Behaviours to mitigate risk

Risk Aversion & Vote

5%

4

8

10

8

15

14

20

8

4 3 3%

1

6 5

2

18

13

21

18

6 5

Unwillingto take

risks

5 Fullypreparedto take

risks

No vote

Yes vote

Yes N=426, No N=575

If Scotland became independent Total

Likely

Yes

voters

No

voters

The UK government would allow Scotland to keep the pound 35.4 64.5 14.2

The UK government would move nuclear weapons out of

Scotland

55.3 58.7 56.7

Scotland would be able to retain membership of the EU on

the same terms as the UK

32.1 61.5 11.0

The UK government would continue to build Royal Navy

ships in Scotland

27.2 43.0 14.3

There would be passport and border controls between

Scotland and England

27.6 13.9 40.5

Scotland and the UK would arrange a defence cooperation 53.0 67.8 41.7

Scotland would continue to contribute to and access services

of the BBC

52.0 63.0 44.6

N=786, Yes N=372, No N=414

If Scotland stayed in the UK

Total

Likely

Yes

voters

No

voters

A UK government would cut spending available for

Scottish public services

49.1 72.0 27.8

UK foreign policy would make Scotland a target for

terrorist attacks

15.5 26.7 7.1

The powers of the Scottish parliament will be reduced

24.9 42.9 10.0

The Conservative Party will win a majority government

in the 2015 UK General Election

26.1 36.1 22.5

The UK will vote itself out of Europe in a membership

referendum

37.0 47.0 31.1

N=880, Yes N=390, No N=490

I have

done

this

I have

looked

into this

I intend to

look into

this

I do not

intend to

look into

this

Moved pension outside Scotland 1.4 4.6 9.3 84.7

Moved bank deposits outside Scotland 2.2 4.3 12.4 81.1

Sought employment outside Scotland 0.6 6.5 8.6 84.3

Sought different employment within Scotland 1.4 5.1 6.3 87.2

Not made investment in stocks and shares 4.0 3.7 4.5 87.7

Not made an investment in a business

opportunity

3.3 2.0 5.4 89.3

Not drawn on savings 3.5 3.4 5.4 87.8

Prepared to move from Scotland 2.8 6.5 13.9 76.9

Behaviours to mitigate risk?

N=1034

Behaviours by vote intention (for those who predict a Yes win)

Yes includes all voters who believe the Yes side will win and intend to vote Yes N=216; No includes all voters who believe the Yes side will win and intend to vote No, N=56

No voters Yes voters

I have

done/

looked

into/

intend to

look into

I do not

intend

to look

into this

I have

done/

looked

into/

intend to

look into

I do not

intend to

look into

this

Prepared to move from Scotland 33.4 66.6 7.4 92.6

Sought employment outside Scotland 25.7 73.9 3.3 96.7

Not drawn on savings 12.9 87.1 8.9 91.1

Moved bank deposits outside Scotland 11.7 88.3 3.7 96.4

Not made investment in stocks and shares 9.3 90.7 4.4 95.6

Not made an investment in a business

opportunity

7.5 92.5 5.5 94.5

Moved pension outside Scotland 7.4 92.6 5.1 94.9

Sought different employment within Scotland 3.8 96.2 8.3 91.8

• Predicting support for independence

– National identity most important predictor

– Higher risk willingness substantially increases support for Independence

– Place of birth is important, but effect disappears once you control for national identity

– Younger (16-24) and older (45+) people less likely to support independence than those aged 25-44

Statistical Modelling

• Experiments – Risk priming

• Does thinking about effects of Yes/No on different policy areas affect certainty and vote intention?

– Risk scenarios • Under which conditions might people vote Yes/No

– Eg currency, Bank of England, if better/worse off individually

– Message vs messenger • How do people react to messages about risk and how is the effectiveness of

that message influenced by the messenger and the perceived credibility of the messenger

– Risk accumulator • At what point do risk messages become counterproductive? To what extent

does the effectiveness of mentioning risks decrease after a particular point?

Further Questions

Under 18-year olds’ views on the referendum PSA Media briefing | 17 June 2014

Dr Jan Eichhorn University of Edinburgh

School of Social and Political Science (Social Policy)

[email protected] @eichhorn_jan

Survey set up

Through randomness!

Random = equal chance for all cases to be selected

“Random Digit Dialing”

Original questions based on existing, high quality surveys

Questions piloted with 110 school students (14-17 years old) at Knox Academy (2013)

Feedback discussions with school students about applicability of questions adjustments made to 1/3 of questions

Consultation by think tank d|part experts regarding final survey design (also for 2014 revisions)

Revision of questions based on i) young person feedback, ii) interest in discussions

Consultation by survey company (MRUK) to increase suitability for telephone interviewing (also for 2014 revisions)

Briefing and feedback with final adjustments with interviewers

Sample selected by Random Digit Dialling

Stratification by 8 parliamentary regions and higher education attainment of parents

Weighting for education of parents

Referendum Question

“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

%

Yes 23.0

No 58.0

Undecided 19.0

Total (1014) 100.0

%

Yes 28.4

No 71.6

Total (817) 100.0

Weighted results from 2013 survey

%

Yes 29.2

No 52.0

Undecided 18.6

Total (724) 100.0

%

Yes 35.9

No 64.1

Total (589) 100.0

Weighted result for those able to vote 2014

Likelihood of voting: increase

2013 (%) 2014 (%) (eligible)

Very unlikely 7 6

Rather unlikely 6 6

Neither likely nor unlikely 19 15

Rather likely 26 21

Very likely 40 51

Don‘t know 2 2

N (100%) 1014 726

Information (still) need(ed)

“Thinking about the debate on Scottish independence so far, would you say…”

2013 (%) 2014 (%) - all -

2014 (%) - eligible -

I have enough information to make a decision 33 39 38

I‘d like more information before I finally decide 67 61 62

N (100%) 1014 1006 726

Information (still) need(ed)

“Thinking about the debate on Scottish independence so far, would you say…”

2013 (%) 2014 (%) - all -

2014 (%) - eligible -



N (100%) 1014 1006 726

2014 eligible voters Yes No Undecided



N (100%) 212 378 134

2013 Yes No Undecided



N (100%) 233 587 193

Information sources used

“Have you followed the news about the debate on Scotland’s future using any of the following sources? Name as many or few as apply.”

ALL (2014) ALL (eligible)

Social media, such as facebook or twitter 64 67

TV or radio programmes 63 63

Online news websites 46 48

Print newspapers 35 37

Publicity materials from the campaigns 30 32

None of the above 11 10

N (100%) 1006 726

Information sources used and perception of knowledge








N (100%) 1006 726

Elibile voters only ‘Enough knowledge‘ % of users

‘Enough knowledge‘ % of non-users







Information sources used and voting intention








N (100%) 1006 726

Elibile voters only ‘Yes‘ % of users ‘Yes‘ % of non-users







Referendum Question by economic expectation

“As a result of independence would Scotland’s economy become better, worse or would it make no difference?”

ALL (2014) Expectation about economy in an independent Scotland (%)

A lot of better

A little better

No difference

A little worse

A lot worse

Yes 92 65 33 3 1

No 4 13 39 89 95

Undecided 4 22 28 8 4

Total (100%) 77 194 186 243 167

National identity

12

39

45

3 1

15

38 39

5 2

31 29 30

4 5 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Scottish, not British More Scottish thanBritish

Equally Scottish andBritish

More British thanScottish

British, not Scottish

%

National identity by age group

14-17 (2013) 14-17 (2014) 18-24 (SSA 2013)

European outlook

“Which of the following statements comes closest to your view about what Britain’s long-term policy toward the European Union should be?”

5

22

44

19

4 5

35 37

16

4

19

40

25

8 3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

To leave the EU To stay in the EU andtry to reduce the

EU's powers

To leave things asthey are

To stay in the EU andtry to increase the

EU's powers

To work for theformation of a single

Europeangovernment

%

Views on the EU by age group

14-17 (2014) 18-24 (SSA 2013) All 18+ (SSA 2013)

European outlook and voting intention (eligible under 18-year olds)

Yes No Undecided Total %

To leave the European Union 37 49 14 (43) 100

To stay in the EU and try to reduce EU‘s powers 30 51 19 (167) 100

To leave things as they are 22 60 18 (324) 100

To stay in the EU and try to increase the EU‘s powers 37 46 17 (125) 100

To work for the formation of a single Euro government 55 40 5 (20) 100

“Which of the following statements comes closest to your view about what Britain’s long-term policy toward the European Union should be?”

scottish referendum: latest predictions media briefing · 2014-06-19 · latest predictions media...

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