scottish crime and justice survey, 2008-09
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Scottish Crime and Justice Survey, 2008-09. Catherine Millington. Overview. Survey methodology Estimating victimisation National Indicator 30: Reduce overall crime victimisation rates by 2 percentage points by 2011 Perceptions of crime - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Catherine Millington
Scottish Crime and Justice Survey, 2008-09
Overview• Survey methodology
• Estimating victimisation– National Indicator 30: Reduce overall crime
victimisation rates by 2 percentage points by 2011
• Perceptions of crime– National Indicator 35: Increase positive public
perception of the general crime rate in the local area
• Police and criminal justice system
Survey Methodology
• Large-scale continuous survey measuring people’s experience & perceptions of crime in Scotland
• 16,003 face-to-face interviews with Scottish adults (aged 16+) in private households
Large sample size:
• More accurate measurement of less prevalent crimes e.g. serious assault
• Sub-national estimates at police force area (PFA) & community justice authority area (CJAA)
• Combining 2009/10 & 2010/11 will give LA results
• Allowed questionnaire to be split into modules, extending topic coverage while retaining reliable reporting at national level
SCJS 2008/09 - QUESTIONNAIRE STRUCTURE
Full sample module (16,000 respondents)
Main screener
Victim form
Community sentencing
Scottish criminal justice system
Split sample modules (4,000 respondents each)
• Fear of crime
• Workplace abuse
• Criminal justice system
• Insulted, pestered, intimidated
• Card and Identity fraud
• Civil justice
• Civil justice
• Safety cameras
Self completion section (asked of 16,000 respondents, completed by 10,974)
Drugs
Partner abuse and sexual victimisation
Limitations of the SCJS• Coverage - excludes businesses, those under
16yrs, those living in institutions, e.g. student accommodation, ‘victimless’ crimes, e.g. speeding
• Respondent recall error
• Sampling error – to indicate the extent, key results presented with their calculated confidence intervals. These are bands within which there is confidence that the ‘true’ value lies 95 % of the time.
Estimating victimisation - the extent of crime
• 1.04 million crimes in Scotland from SCJS 08/09
• The same as in 2005/06• 0.73 million property crimes (70% of
crime) involving theft or damage to personal or household property;
• 0.32 million violent crimes of assault or robbery (30% of crime).
Estimating victimisation - the extent of crime
Vandalism35%
Other h'hold theft (inc cycles)
17%
Assault28%
Housebreaking2%
Personal theft (excl robbery)
9%
Robbery2%
All motor vehicle theft7%
PROPERTY CRIME(70%)
VIOLENT CRIME(30%)
34%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Est
imat
es o
f cr
ime
Vandalism Other h'hold theft (inc cycles) All motor vehicle theft
Housebreaking Personal theft (excl robbery) Assault
Robbery
Estimating victimisation - the extent of crime over time
Estimating victimisation National Indicator 30: Reduce overall crime victimisation
rates by 2 percentage points by 2011
• The proportion of Scottish adults who were the victim of one or more crime is 20.4%– this compares with 21.3% in 2005/06 (decrease 0.9%)– performance is “maintaining”
• Although the last year on year change was not statistically significant it was part of a steady downward trend in the victimisation rate since the early 90s.
Varying risk of crime – population characteristics
1926
2936
10
2532
2021
20
20
0 10 20 30 40
Rest of Scotland
15% most deprived
Female 16-24
Male 16-24
60+
45-59
25-44
16-24
Female
Male
Total
% of adults who were the victim of one or more crime
Varying risk of crime -Crime types
0.4
4
2
0.3
9
18
0.8
4
5
0 5 10 15 20
Robbery
Assault
VIOLENT CRIME
Personal theft
Housebreaking
All motor vehicle theft
Other household theft
Vandalism
PROPERTY CRIME
% of adults/households who were the victim of one or more crime
Comparison with England & Wales
• The risk of being a victim of crime:– Scotland: 20.4% (SCJS 2008/09) – E&W: 23% (BCS 2008/09)
• The risk of being a victim of violent crime:– Scotland: 4.1%– E&W: 3.2%
• The proportion of crime– Scotland: 30% of crime is violent crime– E&W: 20% of crime is violent crime
Violent crime, alcohol & weapons
• In 58% of violent crime the victim thought the perpetrator was under the influence of alcohol
• In 29% of violent crime the victim was under the influence of alcohol
• A weapon was used (or threatened to be used) in 28% of violent crimes
• 1/3 of these weapons were knives• 1/4 were bottles
Was what happened a crime?
24
19
57
12
18
69
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Just somethingthat happens
Wrong but not acrime
A crime
Property crime
Violent crime
% of crime
Reported to the police?
• An estimated 38% of crime is reported to the police
• Most common reasons for unreported crime:– 41% too trivial / not worth reporting– 29% police could not have done anything – 16% police would not have bothered or been
interested
National Indicator 35: Increase positive public perception of the general crime rate in the local area
• 69% of adults perceived the general crime rate in their local area to have stayed the same or reduced in the past 2 years– this compares with 65% in 2005/06– performance is “improving”
• Fewer adults (28%) thought that the crime rate in their area had increased over the last two years – this compares with 32% in 2005/06
Perceptions of crime
0
1
2
2
3
4
3
7
8
17
13
3
6
8
12
15
15
17
20
25
29
33
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
People being sexually assaulted
People being physically attacked because of their skincolour etc
People being mugged or robbed
People having their car or other vehicles stolen
People's homes being broken into
People being physically assaulted or attacked in thestreet or other public places
People having things stolen from their car or othervehicles
Violence between groups of individuals or gangs
Deliberate damage to property or vehicles
Drug dealing and drug abuse
People behaving in an anti-social manner in public
% of adults answering module A
Very Common Fairly common
How common are crimes in your local area?
70
33
34
17
8
1
3
49
64
29
19
6
8
3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Other people talking about it
I have seen it happening
Local newspaper/ local radio news and documentaries
Experience of someone you know
National newspapers/ radio/TV news and documentaries
It has happened to me
Information direct from the local police
% of adults answering module A who think a certain crime is common
Drug dealing and drug abuse People behaving in an antisocial manner in public
How are these impressions formed?
Perceived risk ‘vs’ actual risk
2.8
2.1
3.9
0.4
3.8
0.9
6.3
5
6
6
6
7
9
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Vehicle will be stolen
Theft from vehicle
Vandalism to home
Mugged or robbed
Physically assaulted
Home will be broken into
Vandalism to vehicle
Perceived risk
Actual risk
% of adults
Do the police in your area do a good job?
5
11
17
47
14
0 10 20 30 40 50
Very poor
Fairly poor
Neither good norpoor
Fairly good
Very good
% of adults
Confidence in the police:
Other topics from the survey
Injuries sustained through violent crime
Attitudes to sentencing
Monetary impacts of crime
Civil justice
Workplace abuse
Emotional responses to
crime
Safety cameras
Card and identity fraud
Community sentencing
To view• SCJS 2008-2009 Reports, including - First findings, Partner
abuse, Sexual victimisation, Illegal drug use & Technical report• SCJS 2008-2009 Data tables and regional resultsPlease see the following website:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/by-topic/crime-and-justice/crime-and-justice-survey/publications
• Full data sets are available to download on the UK Data Archive:
http://www.data-archive.ac.uk/findingData/scsTitles.asp
Thank you, Questions?