science r eality

1. . Nature, the entire physical world, natural Resources (R); . Nature, very highly organized: H. sapiens (H); . Nature, modified/disorganized by H. sapiens: Products (P); +P +H = -R, -P -H = R, R+P / H, etc. Nature Darwin Resources Humans Products closedmasssyste m (U+pV)/TQ/T=S nature selects unfit don tsurvice

2. Laws Nature Man Products closedmasssyste m (U+pV)/TQ/T=S Einstein In any contest with nature, man will loose. The laws of man must obey the laws of nature - which science discovers. inanyc ontest with science politics willloose 3. Earthhigh-level REALITIES +H +P = -R 1. No extraterrestrial imports except sunlight For sustainable human development, half of all products currently consumed should be imported to Earth. Excepting freshwater, this would require 8.9 million containers arriving on 1,800 extraterrestrial ships - every day. 2. No extraterrestrial emigrations To keep the current terrestrial human population from increasing, 1 ferry carrying 1,000 people would have to leave Earth every 7 minutes - thats 80 million extraterrestrial emigrations per year. entropy, usefulness made unavailable closed mass system - finite resources -H +P R 4. Homo sapiens - Science Politics Reality My Planet 772 m forestland 702m grazingland 472 m cropland 202 m shrubland 182 m barrenland 80 meters Clo sed mass system Entropy- usefuln essmadeunavailable My Planet is very small - yours is too - 80 meters across, thats the size of the average humans land and freshwater - 80 meters, to make every thing, for all time. My goal for my planet is another 5,000 years of civilizations, so my Laws will be those of nature-science: 1. Dont make Products-Babies (closed mass, entropy, etc.). 2. If you must, make one, the best (minimize mass-energy use) that lasts and is shared (maximize time-space). What laws will you make for your planet?... 5. 1 ATMOSPHERE science initiative endorsed by eminent scientists from every discipline and part of the planet (see partial list below), about whom IPCC Chair Dr. Rajendra Pachauri wrote: 'In conclusion let me say I greatly admire what you are doing, which makes you not only unique scientists but great leaders of human society." Dr. Yuan Lee, Nobel Prize winner and President of the International Council for Science (ICSU) Dr. Olive Shisana, President of the International Social Sciences Council (ISSC) Dr. Ivo Slaus, President of the World Academy of Arts and Sciences (WAAS) Dr. Jacob Palis, I.P. President of The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) Dr. Mohamed Hassan, co-Chair Global Network of Academies of Science (IAP) Dr. Daya Reddy, co-Chair of the InterAcademy Panel (IAC) (+ Pres SAAS) Dr. Gunter Stock, President of All European Academies (ALLEA) Dr Lars Walloe, President of the Academia Europaea Dr. Won-Hoon Park, President of the Association of Academies and Societies of Sciences in Asia (AASSA) Dr. Ahmadou Ndiaye, President of the African Academy of Science (AAS) Dr. Berhanu Abegaz, Executive Director of the African Academy of Science (AAS) Dr. Robin Crewe, President of the Network of African Science Academies (NASAc) Dr. Juan Asenjo, co-Chair InterAmerican Network of Academies of Science (IANAS) Dr. Claudio Bifano, President Academia de Ciencias de America Latina (ACAL) Dr. Keto Mshigeni, Vice President of The World Academy of Science (TWAS) Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Network of Academies of Sciences in Islamic Countries (NASIC) Dr. Abdel Salam Majali, President of the Islamic World Academy of Sciences (IAS) Dr. Mouneef Zo'ubi, Secretary General Islamic World Academy of Sciences (IAS); Dr. Trevor Alleyne, President of the Caribbean Academy of Sciences (CAS) Dr. Nelson Moreno Ceballos, President of the Caribbean Scientific Union (CCC) Dr. Kazu-yuki Tatsumi, President International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) Dr. Alik T.Ismail-Zadeh, Secretary General of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG); Dr. Nils Stenseth, President of the International Union of Biology (IUB) Dr. Gregory Petsko, President International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Dr. Roland Oberhnsli President International Union of Geological Sciences Dr. Michael Burawoy, President of the International Sociological Association (ISA) Dr. Sathasivian Saths Cooper, President of the International Union of Psychological Science (IUPsyS) Dr. Andrew Spiegel, Vice President of the International Union of Anthropological and Ethnological Sciences (IUAES) Dr. Thomas Reuter, Founding chair World Council of Anthropological Associations Dr. Roseanne Diab, Executive Officer Academy of Science South Africa (ASSAf) Dr. Oyewale Tomori, President of the Nigerian Academy of Science (NAS) Dr. Francis Allotey, President of the Ghana Academy of Arts & Sciences (GAAS) Dr Ahmedou Ndiaye, President Senegal Academie des Sciences et Techniques (SAST) Dr. Samuel Domngang, President of the Cameroon Academy of Sciences (CAS) Dr. Rafael Munavu, President of the Kenya National Academy of Science (KNAS) Dr. Ester Mwaikambo, President of the Tanzania Academy of Sciences (TAAS) Dr. Demissie Habte, President of the Ethiopia Academy of Sciences (EAS) Dr. Paul Mugambi, President of the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS) Dr David Mutekanga, Executive Secr. Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS) Dr. Mwananyanda Mbikusita Lewanika, President Zambia Academy of Science (ZaAS) Dr. Christopher Mutambirwa, President of the Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences (ZAS) Dr. Rajaona Andriamananjara, President Madagascar National Academy of Arts, Letters and Sciences Dr. Jorg Hacker, President of the German Academy of Sciences Dr. Nils Stenseth, President of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters Dr. Olavi Nevanllina, President of the Council of Finish Academies Dr. Gunter Stock, President of the Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities and President of the Berlin Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences (PAS) Dr. Sung Hyun Park, President Korean Academy of Science and Technology (KAST) Dr. Mesbahuddin Ahmad, President Bangladesh Academy of Science (BAS) Dr. Surendra Raj Kafle, Chancellor Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) Dr Batbold Enkhtuvshin, President of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS) Dr Imad Khatib, Secretary General of the Palestine Academy of Sciences Dr. Ruth Arnon, President of the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities Dr. William Padolina, President National Academy of Science and Technology Philippines (NASTP) Dr. James McCarthy, President of the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Dr. Jacob Palis, President of the Brazilian Academy of Science (BAS) Dr. Juan Asenjo, President of the Academia de Ciencias Chilena Dr. Claudio Bifano, President of the Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas and Naturales Venezuala Dr. Jos Franco, President Mexico Academia of Ciencias (MAC) Dr. Enrique Acevedo, President of the Guatamala Academia de Ciencias, Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales Dr. Roberto Cignoli, President of the Academa Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Fsicas y Naturales Argentina Dr. Milciades Mejia, President of the Dominican Republic Academia de Ciencias Dr. Jorge A. Huete-Prez, President Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences Dr. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, President Club of Rome Dr. Bill McKibben, President 350.org Dr Eric Chivian, recipient Nobel Peace Prize, Center for Health and Global Environment... among many other eminent global scientists Biology 6. THE RIGHT TO KNOW 7. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014 8. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014 2C 247,535,143,119,442 9. 2C 2C the solution the problem 2C emission limit - gigatonnes kilograms C 400% over limit - zero 2035 247,535,143,152,323 10. we are part of the problemLimit global warming to 2C solutionLimit our national emissions to 2C 11. Dr. Rajendra Pachauri IPCC Chair 65% of our carbon limit compatible with a 2C goal already used AR5 WGI SPM Amount Used 1870-2011: 515 GtC Amount Remaining: 275 GtCTotal Carbon Limit: 790 GtC 247 543 2014 69% The window for action is rapidly closing closed = 2035 1 Dec 2014 UNFCCC COP20 IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report 247,535,143,112,129 12. Science: CLIMATE CHANGE is the urgent, defining, imperative issue of our time - because it is destabilization and destruction of the life support system upon which everything depends - food, water, air, temperature, health, safety, security, jobs, economic growth, everything. + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 0.0 2C 13. Dr. Thomas Stocker IPCC co-chair Physical Science Dr. Reto Knutti IPCC coordinating lead author Physical Science Dr. Shreekant Gupta IPCC coordinating lead author Mitigation Dr. Youba Sokona IPCC co-chair Mitigation Dr. Rajendra Pachauri IPCC chair Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientists Solutions have been available for 114 years! Act now... 2C H O -+ 1900: electric cars solar cells wind turbines hydro power geothermal energy hydrogen fuel cells 1900, a scientist wrote: The Suns Powers gathered by photo-electric cells into electrical storehouses, the total extinction of combustion engines, filth and smoke - a Blessed Vision! 14. THIS BABY WILL LIVE TO BE It is science that brings our medicines and our long life - and our smart phones, computers, cars, planes, satellites, space travel, nearly everything of modern life. And the same science now warns that unless humanity stops emissions now, we will destroy our life support system upon which everything depends - food water, air, temperature, health, safety, security, jobs, economic growth, everything. So heed the doctors, the scientists - get well, survive and thrive, live long, happy lives. *because of SCIENCE - knowledge, evidence, consensus. Climate change - heed doctors scientists + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 0.0 2C 15. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014 Limit global warming to 2C* 2C *2010 COP16 Cancn agreements: future global warming should be limited to below 2C (3.6F) relative to preindustrial level,1.5C dangerous destabilization has already happened, see following. + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 0.0 16. For 2C, limit all anthropogenic emissions from now to 2100 to: 2C Climate change has 1 cause: emissions 1 solution: limit gigatonnes kilograms carbon 247,535,143,196,781 17. 2C Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2C To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon 247,535,143,197,764 18. 2C 2C To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon solution DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis 27 Sep 2013 IPCC, approved by the governments of the world: To likely limit global warming to 2C over preindustrial levels, accounting for non-CO2 forcings, limit all anthropogenic emissions to 260 gigatonnes of carbon between 27 Sep 2013 and 2100. Per human this means a limit of about 30,800 kgs in emissions from consumption of goods and services. problem gigatonnes C 247,535,143,190,096 247 19. 1.5C dangerous destabilization has already happened To avoid catastrophe for everyone there is now 1 objective: 2C 2C increasing 1 gigatonne every 34 days gigatonnes kilograms carbon In 2013, COP19, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were such, that unless removed, 1.5C global warming will happen. To likely limit global warming to 1.5C, emit nothing, & remove from the atmosphere 12,464,856,863,837 20. 2C It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014, to put about 540 gigatonnes C in the atmosphere; at current trends it will take a mere 21 years to put up another 247. Cumulative emissions 1860 to now Cumulative emissions are the cause of climate change 1860, President Abraham Lincoln and officers, American Civil War 155 years - gigatonnes kg C 21 years - gigatonnes kg C 542,972,506,033,015 247,027,493,693,215 21. 2C 1.1 million Eiffel Towers 1 gigatonne = 100,000 Eiffel Towers, every minute 2 Eiffel Towers are emitted At current trends, from COP20 2014 to COP21 2015, 11 gigatonnes of carbon will be emitted, destabilizing the human life support system upon which everything depends. From Lima to Paris in equivalent emissions C gigatonnes kilograms C 247,027,493,696,520 22. every minute 20 million kg C emissions every hour 1.2 billion kg every day 30 billion kg every 34 days 1 gigatonne every year 11 gigatonnes in 21 years 247 gigatonnes - time is up: 2C The clock is ticking time is running out 2C ,535,143,110,441247 23. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - Conference 2014 too much realityPresentationMichael Wadleigh, scientist Oscar winner 247,535,143,159,962 24. 2C *2010 COP16 Cancn agreements: future global warming should be limited to below 2C (3.6F) relative to preindustrial level. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change For 20 years gas concentrations have not been stabilized, dangerous interference has not been prevented, no progress has been made toward the Objective, only regress... There is only 1 objective UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To limit global warming to 2C* limit emissions to *COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon 247,535,143,143,736 25. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Emissions reached a new record high in 2013. Between 1990 and 2013 there was a 34% increase in the warming effect on our climate. CO2 levels increased more between 2012 and 2013 than during any other year since UNFCCC began, 1992. Far from falling, emissions increased last year at the fastest rate since UNFCCCs founding. We must reverse this trend, reign in the relent- less rise by cutting emissions across the board, which has not been done in the time of UNFCCC. We are running out of time. There are only about 20 years until there will be enough emissions in the atmosphere, which if not removed will cause 2C warming. IPCC and WMO provide the science for deci- sion making. We have the knowledge and the tools for action to keep temperature increase within 2C. Laws of physics are not negotiable, laws of man are. Agree and limit emissions for 2C now. Give our children and grandchildren a future. Use the science. Pleading ignorance can no longer be an excuse for not acting... Give our children a future... Pleading ignorance can no longer be an excuse for inaction... Laws of physics are not negotiable Dr Michel Jarraud WMO Secretary General 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Long-lived greenhouse gases CO21.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.0 Year Radiativeforcing(W/m2 ) WMO 9 Sep 2014 26. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Long-livedgreenhousegases UNFCCC Conference Year Location Negotiation Outcome Emission Outcome CO2 parts per million Emission Outcome Gigatonnes of Carbon per year Emission Outcome Limit for 2C Gigatonnes of Carbon COP 1 1995 Berlin Berlin Mandate 360 8 415 COP 2 1996 Geneva Geneva Ministerial Declaration Noted 362 8 407 COP 3 1997 Kyoto Kyoto Protocol 363 9 400 COP 4 1998 Buenos Aires Buenos Aires Plan of Action 365 8 391 COP 5 1999 Bonn Bonn Agreement 368 8 383 COP 6 2000 The Hague Bonn Agreements Consensus 369 8 375 COP 7 2001 Marrakesh Marrakesh Ministerial Declaration Adopted 370 8 367 COP 8 2002 Delhi Declaration on Climate Change & Sustainable Development 373 8 359 COP 9 2003 Milan Climate Change Fund & Least Development Countries Fund 375 8 351 COP 10 2004 Buenos Aires Complete Marrakesh Accords 377 9 343 COP 11 2005 Montreal Global Environmental Facility Guidelines 378 9 334 COP 12 2006 Nairobi Nairobi Framework Welcomed 381 9 325 COP 13 2007 Bali Bali Roadmap 382 10 316 COP 14 2008 Poznan Adaptation Fund 385 9 307 COP 15 2009 Copenhagen Copenhagen Accord 387 9 297 COP 16 2010 Cancun Cancun Agreements 389 10 288 COP 17 2011 Durban Durban Platform for Enhanced Action 391 10 278 COP 18 2012 Doha Doha Amendments to the Kyoto Protocol 393 11 268 COP 19 2013 Warsaw Warsaw Outcomes Objective Progress ? 396 11 257 COP 20 2014 Lima 400 11 247 1.5C GHG concentrations likely reached in 2013 UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 27. Islamic State Ebola Immigration Recession 2C Terrorism, instability, inequality, disease - there is one issue that will define this century, the catastrophe of climate change... and we do nothing to stop it. There is 1 Objective Destabilization 28. catastrophe - and we do nothing to stop it There is 1 Objective Destabilization 29. ALIVE DEAD 2C is the difference between life and death. Save your childs life - get the temperature down now: the medicine: 1 kg C per person per day to 2100 - now 4 kg. Life threatening emergency 400% over limit > 100% on limit + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 0.0 2C F C37 98.6 40 104 1 kg C / cap / day to 2100 2C 247,535,143,109,130 30. 2C F C37 98.6 40 104 makes all the difference in life: 37C is normal human temperature, 40C is death. 247 gigatonnes of emissions is a lot: 1 kilogram of carbon per person per day from now until 2100, 86 years. 1 kg C / cap / day to 2100 31. Listen to the best scientists: climate change is deadly, life-threatening. To limit the change to 2C, limit emissions per person per day to 1 kg C between now and 2100. 1 kg C / cap / day to 2100 400 % overlimit 2C 247,535,143,149,458 32. UN Climate Conference 2014 2CPeru cannot, Peru must not fail - if we continue as we are, climate change will be a catastrophe. UNFCCC has 1 Objective: Opening ceremony The Objective reality is that for 20 years we have not stabilized emissions - but the greater reality is that highly profitable solutions have been available for decades - to build a non- emission, non-destruction economy that can last for centuries. Now finally lets do it... TO SUCCEED ADMIT FAILURE UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To limit global warming to 2C* limit emissions to *COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon COP20 President Manuel Pulgar-Vidal 247,535,143,141,743 33. There is 1 Objective STABILIZATION 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 DE-STABILIZATIONgigatonnes C per year long-lived greenhouse gases +8 +8 +9 +8 +8 +8 +8 +8 +9 +9 +9 +9 +10 +9 +9 +10 +10 +11 +11 +11 ? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 COP 20 + 10 ? + 9 ? + 8 ? COP 2C gigatonnes kilograms carbon Humanity is 400% over limit for 2C, zero is 2035, 21 years. At current trends +1.1%/yr emission increase: 247,535,143,140,562 34. Guide to Lima COP20: there is 1 Objective UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To limit global warming to 2C* limit emissions to 400% over limit - zero 2035 *COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon 2C Lima cannot, must not fail. Forests Cities Oceans Gender Adaptation Health Indiginous Finance MountainsRenewables Jobs IndustryAgriculture Poverty Economy Water Efficiency Energy 247,535,143,141,386 35. Guide to UNFCCC: there is 1 Objective2C Forests Cities Oceans Gender Adaptation Health Indiginous Finance MountainsRenewables Jobs IndustryAgriculture Poverty Economy Water Efficiency Energy stabilize gases prevent danger 400% over limit 2C emission limit gigatonnes kg C 247,535,143,140,253 36. 2C Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2C. At current trends +1.1%/yr emission increase: Humanity is 400% over limit, zero is 2035, only 21 years. To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon EMISSION LIMIT 2C Im for Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General gigatonnes C 247,535,143,195,727 247 37. 2C 193 Gross National Incomes add up to 1 Global $GNI. Humanitys economy is growing 2.2% per year. ECONOMIC GROWTH Im for Global Gross National Income $ increasing 2.2% /yr $99+trillion 99,342,602,450,348 38. 2C President Barack Obama United States Chancelor Angela Merkel Germany Prime Minister Narendra Modi India President Xi Jinping China President Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria My GNI /cap is $ 52,308 My GNI /cap is $ 43,049 My GNI /cap is $ 11,477 My GNI /cap is $ 5,150 My GNI /cap is $ 5,353 Global Gross National Income $ 193 Gross National Incomes add up to 1 Global $GNI Humanity: $13,723 GNI /cap, economic growth 2.2% per year increasing 2.2% /yr VoicesVoices99,342,602,451,169 39. 2C To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2C. Humanity is 400% over limit, zero is 2035, only 21 years. President Barack Obama United States Chancelor Angela Merkel Germany Prime Minister Narendra Modi India President Xi Jinping China President Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria Im 888% over limit for 2oC Im 468% over limit for 2oC Im 134% over limit for 2oC Im 30% of the limit for 2oC Im 1,398% over limit for 2oC VoicesVoices,535,143,182,371247 40. Americas priority is jobs, economic growth. If a dome were put over America, US emissions are so great that at current trends atmospheric gas concentrations causing 2C warming would happen in just 6 years, 2020 - then rapidly 4C, 8C warming, the end of the US as we know it. If high per capita emitting countries could not export their emissions and had to stew in their own juices, it seems certain they would stop their climate changing emissions immediately. What if there were no emission exports? Stewing in ones own juices 2C 41. No emission imports If a dome had been put over Africa a few years ago to protect it from emissions from other continents, African emissions are so small that global warming might never happen there. Of course there is no dome - and disastrous climate changes are already happening to Africans, the deaths and destructions are caused by other nations exported emissions... 42. 2C Energy use is the principle source of climate changing emissions. By 1900 solar cells, wind turbines, hydro power, geothermal energy, hydrogen fuel cells, electric cars (to name a few) were all in use. In 1990, 90 years later all solar, wind, hydro, geothermal NON- emitting energy had risen to be only a very small 3% of total primary energy supply (tpes). Currently, extraordinarily, all global solar-wind-hydro-geo energy remains just 3% of tpes: a zero increase in 25 years. In 1990 NON-emitting nuclear energy was 6%, currently it has fallen to just 5% of tpes. This means that currently global coal, oil, gas, bio* EMITTING energy has risen to be an overwhelming 92% of global tpes. * Bio energy, 10% tpes, as practiced is NOT sustainable with substantial emission, pollution and health hazards. coal 29% oil 32% gas 21% bio 10%* EMITTING energy 92% tpes (25 years) solar wind hydro geo 3% nuclear 5% NON-EMITTING energy 8% tpes To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon 2C 1900 247,535,143,185,323 43. To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon 2C Climate change has 1 cause: emissions 1 solution: limit. coal 29% oil 32% gas 21% bio 10% EMITTING energy 92% tpes solar wind hydro geo 3% NON-EMITTING energy 8% tpes for humanity President Barack Obama United States Chancelor Angela Merkel Germany Prime Minister Narendra Modi India President Xi Jinping China President Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria 2% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is 3% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is 3% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is 2% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is 1% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is nuclear 5% VoicesVoices247,535,143,180,547 44. EMISSION REDUCTION NOW example: In just 5 years, high technology pro- duction of US WWII aircraft increased from 2,141 to 96,318 per year, 4,500%. The war was won - the worlds most advanced, high tech economy was built. The same can happen now - rapidly build an innovative, robust, inexhaust- ible, renewable economy that will last. solar wind hydro geo nuclearNON-EMISSION ENERGY PISTOL PACKIN MAMAS 1,400% over 2C limit, my non-emitting energy is only 10% No problem! Increase non-emitting energy only 1,200%! 2C ROSIE RIVETERS 247,535,143,150,107 45. 2C Combustion, emission coal-oil-gas-bio energy - the principle cause of climate change - currently causes nearly a half million deaths per year from extreme weather-temperature, floods, storms, food-water shortages, disease increase,etc. Additionally coal-oil-gas-bio energy accidents cause thousands of deaths each year. Long-life climate changing gases last thousands of years - and 14.9 million times more waste just in CO2, to Carbon-Capture-Store, than nuclear since 1960. coal oil gas bio 92%: emitting energy nuclear 5%: non-emitting energy Nuclear vs coal-oil-gas-bio energy 419,000+ 0 70 deaths per year - radiation, etc. Non-combustion, non-emission nuclear energy causes no climate change deaths. Since its inception in 1960, nuclear energy has caused an average of 70 deaths per year due to accidents, radiation. Long-life radiation lasts thousands-millions of years - but a fraction of the waste of CO2. climate change deaths per year 46. 2C All climate actions must add up to 1 global emission limit for 2C To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon & Forests INCLUSION ENERGY 30,600 Peruvians provided with solar. Fight energy poverty. Forests Cities Oceans Gender Adaptation Health Indiginous Finance MountainsRenewables Jobs IndustryAgriculture Poverty Economic Growth Water Efficiency There is 1 Objective: stabilization Energy 247,535,143,188,955 47. To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon UN Very High Developed live 21 years longer, have 2.8 times the education, 32 times the money - and caused an extraordinary 73 times the emissions of Low Developed. 16.6% of humanity - the best educated, healthiest, wealthiest, the Highest Developed - cause 62% of cumulative emissions, the cause of climate change. The 16% Least Developed humans cause a miniscule 0.8%. 57% of humanity - in 141 African, Latin American and Southern Asian countries - cause only 21% of emissions. High - Medium - Low Developed Michael Bloomberg United States Ban Ki-moon South Korea Mary Robinson Ireland John Kufour Ghana Barack Obama United States Angela Merkel Germany Narendra Modi India Xi Jinping China Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria Very High Developed Very High Developed are 977% over limit Very High Development VoicesVoices 247,535,143,178,142 48. Envoy Michael Bloomberg United States UN Sec.Gen. Ban Ki-moon South Korea Envoy Mary Robinson Ireland Envoy John Kufour Ghana Donation day: $.27 + 14 kg year: $100 + 4,962 kg Donation day: $.10 + 11 kg year: $36 + 3,934 kg Donation day: $.50 + 9 kg year: $182 + 3,274 kg to adapt to Very High emissions: 1/4 of 1 cent per person I donate 14 kgs and 27 cents each day I donate 11 kgs and 10 cents each day I donate 9 kgs and 50 cents each day I receive 1/4 of 1 cent each day Each day on average UN Very High Developed donate 36 cents in total Official Development Assistance, plus a donation of 10 kilograms of climate changing emissions (see data / maps). Each day for climate change compensation, the Most Vulnerable and Exposed, including Africans, receive 1/4 of one cent per person from the Very High Developed. This may increase 10 fold (to $100 billion), each person will then get 2.5 cents per day. Emissions and Money 2C VoicesVoices 49. China India Nigeria Brazil Germany EU28 Humanity Human Development - UNDP 2014 Very High High Medium Low High Very High Very High Education - school expectancy 16.5 years 12.9 years 11.7 years 9.0 years 15.2 years 16.3 years 16.1 years 12.2 years Health - life expectancy 78.9 years 75.3 years 66.4 years 52.5 years 73.9 years 80.7 years 80.1 years 70.8 years Living standards - $ GNI / year $ 52,308 $ 11,477 $ 5,150 $ 5,353 $ 14,275 $ 43,049 $ 33,844 $ 13,723 Emissions cumulative - kgs / cap Emission limit 2oC - % of limit1 1,398% 468% 134% 30% 195% 888% 745% 401% Emission limit 2oC - year limit zero1 2020 2033 2081 2315 2060 2023 2025 2035 Non-emitting energy - % tpes2 10% > 12% 1% > 4% 2% > 3% 0.6% > 0.4% 6% > 14% 12% > 11% 14% > 17% 9% > 8% Solar-Wind-Hydro-Geo 2% > 2% 1% > 3% 2% > 2% 1% > 0.4% 0% > 1% 0% > 3% 2.3% > 3.6% 3% > 3% Nuclear 8% > 10% 0% > 1% 0.5% > 1% 0% > 0% 6% > 13% 11% > 8% 12% > 13.5% 6% > 5% Emitting energy - % tpes2 90% > 88% 99% > 96% 98% > 97% 99% > 99.6% 94% > 86% 88% > 89% 86% > 83% 91% > 92% Bio 3% > 4% 23% > 7% 42% > 23% 80% > 81% 44% > 29% 1% > 9% 3% > 8% 10% > 10% Gas 23% > 27% 2% > 4% 3% > 6% 5% > 9% 0% > 9% 15% > 21% 18% > 23% 19% > 21% Oil 40% > 37% 13% > 17% 20% > 23% 16% > 9% 46% > 43% 36% > 34% 38% > 34% 37% > 32% Coal 24% > 20% 61% > 67% 33% > 45% 0% > 0% 3% > 5% 36% > 25% 27% > 18% 25% > 29% Energy total primary supply - Mtoe 1,915 > 2,171 865 > 2,922 318 > 794 67 > 134 82 > 293 357 > 323 1,667 > 1,683 8,774 > 13,172 195 national emission limit laws must add up to the 1 global limit To limit global warming to 2oC limit emissions to Humanity is 400% over limit1, zero is 2035, energy supply is 92% emittives2 decreasing emission limit gigatonnes kilograms carbon1 1IPCC & 195 governments: To likely limit global warming to 2 o C above preindustrial levels, limit emissions to 260 gigatonnes 2013-2100. Above in real-time is the limit now. To be on-limit, emissions should be minus 3% per year; however at current trends, plus 1.1%, zero will be reached, not in 2100 but in 2035, only 21 years from now. Humanity is 396% over limit to likely limit global warming to 2 o C. Per human this means a limit of about 30,800 kilograms of carbon emissions from consumption of goods and services, 2013- 2100. 2The 1st number is 1990 % of total primary energy supply (tpes), the 2nd number is current % tpes: for 25 years total primary energy supply has been a miniscule 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo non-emitting energy; plus currently 5% nuclear non-emitting energy, plus an overwhelming 92% coal-oil-gas-bio emitting energy, the principal cause of climate change. Note: bio energy as practiced is not sustainable with substantial emission, pollution and health hazards; carbon capture & storage, geoengineering, etc. are not yet significant / realities - and may never be. 1 E mission Lim it 1 A tmosphe re 195 Countries USA Medium Emissions consumption - kgs/cap/yr1 (1990> 2012) (1990> 2012) 2C Pragmatic and practical... The goal is to know what national emissions are... The essential task is to transform energy from high to low carbon... in developed and developing countries. Todd Stern, US Special Envoy on Climate Change 247,535,143,117,601 317,728 32,886 9,636 4,366 17,724 283,761 324,967 50,529 25,907 28,995 30,266 30,015 29,980 27,177 27,488 29,253 50. If every Chinese lives like Americans, it will be a disaster for the world. Dr. Dahe Qin, co-chair Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WGI, Physical Science 62 persons / auto Human development: living standards - climate changing emissions 1 Cumulative emissions per capita / 2 Emissions from consumption of goods & services, limit remaining for 2oC per capita - in kg/mgC Americans Chinese Indians 20 50 living standard 1 Very High Developed set the standards all follow Per capita: $ GNI Emissions Solutions 1 2 1 2 VoicesVoices 317,728,026,507,796 32,886,022,037,680 9,636,386,197,194 25,907,158,807,784 28,995,498,042,963 30,266,869,473,463 51. 2C To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2C. Humanity is 400% over limit, zero is 2035, only 21 years. President Barack Obama United States Im 1,398% over limit for 2C President Xi Jinping China Im 468% over limit for 2C VoicesVoices US-China sign historic emission pledge Americans will cut emissions 26%-28% by 2025 com- pared to 2005, Chinese will peak emissions by 2030. 12 Nov 2014 No mention of 2C or 247 GtC limit, what do the pledges mean?: Americas over limit will go down 198%, from 1,398% to 1,200%. Chinas over limit will go up 82%, from 468% to 550%. US will reach its emission limit not in 2100 but 2021, China in 2028. By 2025 Americans, 4.5% of the population, will have emitted 7% of the global limit for humanity to last till 2100 in just 11 years. By 2030 Chinese, 19% of the population, will have emitted 23% of the global limit for humanity to last till 2100 in just 16 years. By 2025 US, 4.5%, will have emitted 16 gigatonnes of carbon. By 2030 China, 19%, will have emitted 51 gigatonnes of carbon. 1,200% 550% ,535,143,182,371247 52. Agreement = Lima COP20 Climate Conference 2014 Outcome 2CLimit = = emission limit for 2C gigatonnes kilograms carbon247,535,143,176,167 53. 2C Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2C To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon EMISSIONBOARD 247,535,143,197,764 54. 2C Cumulative emissions per capita in tons Carbon (tC)(from energy use by 2013) 18% of humanity cause 71% of emissions, 267 GtC, >80 tC / cap, 46 countries 30% of humanity cause 21% of emissions, 78 GtC, 23-79 tC / cap, 44 countries 30% of humanity cause 6% of emissions, 23 GtC, 7-22 tC / cap, 33 countries 22% of humanity cause 1% of emissions, 4 GtC, regained ! preserve the life support system 2C emission limit gigatonnes kilograms C 99,342,602,449,210 247,027,493,694,004 64. 2C Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2C To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbonIt is a race against time.Franois Hollande, President France Everything must be done to reduce emissions radically to limit global warming to below 2C. Humanity is 400% over limit, zero is 2035, only 21 years. Solutions have been available for decades, act now. 247,535,143,197,764 65. Noproblem!2C limit 2C 2035 - 400% over limit 2C 247,535,143,151,523 66. Bruce Springsteen i am part of the problemLimit global warming to 2C Limit my national emissions to 2C solution 67. problem i am part of the solutionLimit global warming to 2C Limit my national emissions to 2C 68. we are part of the problem / solutionlimit global warming to 2C limit our national emissions to 2C 69. Best educated, healthiest, wealthiest, highest emitters Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C Limit my nations emissions to 2C 70. Emit unto others as you would have them emit unto you 71. Climate change global warming There is 1 Objective: Stabilization 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2C Destabilization 247,535,143,135,515 72. Peru will succeed 2C 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 There is 1 Objective: Stabilization Destabilization 247,535,143,142,853 73. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014 2C 247,535,143,119,442 74. [email protected] +44 7-8557 1-8557 75. 247,535,143,084,132 12,464,856,702,522 Start Stop 76. OUTCOME AGREEMENT = 2C LIMIT = = emission limit for 2C gigatonneskilograms carbon UN Climate Conference 2014 247,535,143,179,293 77. UN Climate Change Conference PARTIES Negotiations Venue 2C Emissions of 196 Parties must add up to 1 global limit for 2C To limit global warming to 2C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon Mountains & Water Forests Sustainable Cities Energy OceansObservers & Press Indiginous Peoples VOICES Knowledge Pavilions UNFCCC objective: stabilization gases prevention danger247,535,143,149,700 78. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis (do the math, 2C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C Jose Barroso, EC President 23 Sep 2014 IPCC scientists tell us that 2C is possible - but only if we get serious... and lead. It is a test we cannot afford to fail. 79. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis (do the math, 2C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C Jean-Claude Juncker, EC President I want the European Union to lead the fight against global warming We owe this to future generations. 80. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis Franois Hollande, President France Everything must be done to reduce emissions radically to limit global warming to 2C... to give the worlds young people hope. 23 Sep 2014 (do the math, 2C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C 81. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis Angela Merkel, Chancellor Germany To limit global warming to less than 2C we need to act quickly and decisively... it is quite literally a question of survival... (do the math, 2C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C 82. When offered clear scientific advice to safeguard the long- term future of our planet and our people, we should seize it. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis David Cameron, UK Prime Minister 23 Sep 2014 (do the math, 2C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C 83. We cannot condemn our children... We know what we have to do to avoid irreparable harm. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis Barack Obama, US President 23 Sep 2014 (do the math, 2C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C 84. we are part of the problemLimit global warming to 2C solutionLimit our national emissions to 2C 85. THE RIGHT TO KNOW 86. 2C Emission limit now to limit global warming to 2C Gigatonnes kilograms Carbon GtC EMISSION RATE The rate of climate change is increasing not decreasing: GHG emissions growth in the last decade, 2000-2010, was larger than in the previous 3 decades, +2.2%/yr vs +1.3%/yr. Far from falling, atmospheric CO2 increased last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years. 1990 20352014 0 250 450 1860:790GtC* Greenhousegasemissions EMISSION LIMIT 2C 1860-1990, 130 years, 340 GtC* emitted 1990-2014, 25 years, 200 GtC emitted - an unmitigated disaster 2014-2035, 21 years, 250 GtC at current trends = +2C *GtC, gigatonnes of carbon NON-EMISSION ENERGY 1900-1990, 90 years, 0 > 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo tpes 1990-2014, 25 years, 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo, no increase 1990-2014, 25 years, 6% nuclear declined to 5% 2014 EMITTING ENERGY: 92% IN SUM 1990-2014 is an unmitigated disaster Solutions have been in place for decades To prevent catastrophe act now... 247,535,143,185,451 87. prof itable solutions Limiting global warming to 2C is highly profitable Economic growth is initially reduced by only 0.06%, from projected 1.6 - 3% growth. -0.06% is delayed growth, benefits then increase building a non-combustion, non-emitting, robust, high technology economy that will last. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report