Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD

District Housing

Activity Report 1Q 2017

Solutions Through Demographics

2

GREATER SAN ANTONIO NEW HOME STARTS, CLOSINGS,

& LOT DELIVERIES

Year-Over-Year Change

Annual Starts +3.1%

Annual Closings +5.1%

Annual Starts: 10,811

Annual Closings: 10,204

Start = Foundation started

Closing = Occupied home

In 1Q17, Greater San Antonio homebuilders produced more than 3,000 starts in a quarter for the

first time this cycle (3,076 total homes)

Region’s annual starts rate climbs to 10,811 (+3.1% vs. same period a year ago)

10,204 annual closings is a new record for the current housing cycle and most since early 2008

Developers delivered 11,819 new single-family lots over the past 12 months (+6.8% YoY)

Current Cycle

3

Greater San Antonio New

Home Closings by School

District: 5 Year Aggregate

Total (2012-2016)

Rank District 5-Year Total

1 Northside 15,496

2 Comal 6,671

3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 3,542

4 Judson 3,250

5 North East 2,913

6 Boerne 2,563

7 New Braunfels 2,363

8 East Central 2,115

9 Southwest 1,889

10 Medina Valley 1,650

3rd Most

4

Greater San Antonio School

District Enrollment Growth:

5 Year Aggregate Total

2011/12 - 2016/17 S.Y.

Rank District 5-Year Total

1 Northside 8,035

2 Comal 4,423

3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 2,437

4 Boerne 1,547

5 Southwest 1,432

6 Medina Valley 1,162

7 East Central 765

8 New Braunfels 600

9 San Marcos Con. 577

10 Judson 534

Source: Texas Education Agency PEIMS Standard Reports

3rd Most

5

GROWTH DRIVERS: GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL JOB GROWTH(8 county MSA: Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendell, Medina, Wilson counties)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Current Employment Survey (CES)

Unemployment Rates – March 2017

San Antonio: 4.1%

Austin: 3.6%, DFW: 4.0%, Houston: 5.7%

Texas: 5.0%, US: 4.6%

Annual Job Growth =

+24,500 (+2.4% Y-o-Y)

25-year Avg. =18,023

6

GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL CHANGE IN

EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

March 2017Annual

Change% Change

Mining and Logging -300 -10.5%

Construction +1,900 +4.9%

Manufacturing +1,600 -2.8%

Trade, Transp, Util +3,000 +0.5%

Information -400 -1.4%

Financial Activities +300 +0.8%

Prof & Bus Services +4,900 +3.1%

Edu. & Health Serv. +9,700 +2.8%

Leisure & Hospitality +500 +2.9%

Other Services +1,200 +10.4%

Government +2,100 +2.4%Source: TWC

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Freddie Mac

April 27,2017

30YR : 4.03%

15YR : 3.27%

1YR ARM : 3.12%

30-Yr Fixed Rate Outlook

Mortgage Bankers

AssociationConforming Rates: 4/18/17 Forecast

2Q17 4.3%

3Q17 4.4%

4Q17 4.6%

1Q18 4.7%

30-Yr Conforming Rates (Freddie Mac)

Rates subside

slightly as market

enters 2Q17

7

GROWTH DRIVERS: 30-YR MORTGAGE RATES

GROWTH DRIVERS: SAN ANTONIO MSA EXISTING

HOME SALES

Annual Resale Rate (3/17) 31,757+7.5% vs. 1 Year Ago

Month Supply of Listings: 3.0

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

8

Pre-owned sales in the region continue to increase; however, the supply of

listings remains extremely tight at 3.0 months (6 months considered normal)

9

S.C.U.C. ISD PRE-OWNED HOME SALES

• 316 existing home sales in

the 1st quarter of 2017

• 1,665 total resales from

2Q16-1Q17 (+10.4% YoY)

• District’s median resale sold

price for the past 12 months

was $215,000 (+4.9% YoY)

• Greater San Antonio Median

Resale Price currently $200K

(+8.1% YoY)

Source: SABORSF Sales Only

10

S.C.U.C. ISD QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

Builders start 194 and close 189 new homes in the district during the 1st quarter

Most 1st quarter starts in 9 years

Starts 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1Q 156 151 173 158 170 159 194 1Q 178 150 154 119 149 238 189

2Q 211 197 198 195 231 193 2Q 208 139 181 179 176 248

3Q 184 174 215 184 286 200 3Q 231 183 177 163 224 216

4Q 151 159 136 165 247 147 4Q 178 178 170 163 162 173

Total 702 681 722 702 934 699 194 Total 795 650 682 624 711 875 189

11

S.C.U.C. ISD ANNUAL NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

Annual Starts: 734

Annual Closings: 826

Year-Over-Year Change

Annual Starts -20.5%

Annual Closings +3.3%

Annual starts are down 20.5% compared to this time last year (734 total starts)

District closings are up 3.3% over the past 12 months to 826 homes

Since 2Q11, district builders have produced an average of 745 starts & 725 closings per yr.

Developers delivered 960 new single-family lots (SF) over the past year

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

Rank District

Total Starts

2Q16-1Q17

Total Closings

2Q16-1Q17

1 Northside 3,647 3,533

2 Comal 1,799 1,660

3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 734 826

4 Judson 919 763

5 Boerne 662 654

6 New Braunfels 653 561

7 North East 488 535

8 Medina Valley 464 483

9 Southwest 369 360

10 East Central 403 331

11 San Marcos Con. 256 164

12 Seguin 128 134

13 Southside 91 89

14 Navarro 87 89

15 San Antonio 158 49

16 South San Antonio 46 38

17 Harlandale 59 47

12

GREATER SAN ANTONIO SCHOOL DISTRICT RANKINGS

BY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

• SCUC ISD continues

to rank 3rd in annual

new home closings

among all Greater

San Antonio school

districts

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

13

S.C.U.C. ISD NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION BY CITY

2Q16-1Q17 District Closings: 49% Cibolo, 33% Schertz, 13% Selma, 5% Converse

Closing = Occupied home

1. Turning Stone (All) 131 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2019

2. Kensington Ranch (All) 104 Paschal/Schertz Wilder Schertz/Selma 2017

3. Saratoga 94 Green Valley Schlather Cibolo 2021

4. Riata Terrace 64 Sippel Schlather Schertz 2020

5. Landmark Pointe 61 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2022

6. The Crossvine 56 Rose Garden Jordan Schertz 2040

7. Willow Grove (All) 54 Rose Garden Wilder Schertz 2019

8. Rhine Valley 47 Watts Wilder Schertz 2023

9. Cibolo Vista (All) 46 Cibolo Valley Jordan Cibolo 2018

10. Saddle Creek Ranch 39 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2024

11. MacArthur Park 39 Rose Garden Jordan Converse 2016

12. Fairway Ridge 21 Sippel Schlather Schertz 2018

13. Heights of Cibolo 20 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2021

14

S.C.U.C. ISD TOP PRODUCING NEW HOME SUBDIVISIONS

Annual

Closings

2Q16-1Q17

Elementary

Attendance

Zone

4 of the top 10 producers are located in the Cibolo Valley ES zone

Intermediate

Attendance

ZoneCity

Projected

Build-out

15

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY ELEMENTARY ZONE

• 36% of new homes occupied

over the past 12 months were

located in the Cibolo Valley ES

zone

• Paschal, Schertz, and Rose

Garden zones (combined)

produced 32% of new home

occupancies over the past year

• Annual closings in the Green

Valley ES zone increase to 112

units

16

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY INTERMEDIATE ZONE

The Schlather zone continues to be the most active zone in the district with

53% of annual closings over the past 12 months

17

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY

JUNIOR HIGH/HIGH SCHOOL ZONE

Activity continues to shift back to the Dobie JH/Steele HS zones

61% of the district’s closings over the past 12 months occurred in the Dobie

JH/Steele HS zones

18

DISTRICT MEDIAN NEW HOME PRICE

67% of new homes are being

built in neighborhoods priced

between $201K and $300K

Annual activity over $300K is up

144% compared to same period

last year

The district’s median new home

price increases to a new high of

$273,357 in 1Q17 (+5.8% Y-o-Y)

Greater San Antonio median

new home price now $262K

(+2.8% Y-o-Y)

Median New Home Price by City

Cibolo = $271,679

Schertz = $289,150

Selma = $218,640

Converse = $225,500

19

SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD

NEW RESIDENTIAL LOTS DELIVERIES

189 new lots delivered in 1Q 2017

1,816 vacant developed lots remaining as of March 31, 2017

(29.7 month supply)

Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City

Mesa at Turning Stone

6 22 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Saratoga 2, 5 94 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Cypress Point 4 73 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz

20

SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD

RESIDENTIAL LOTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT

396 future lots under development as of March 2017

Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City

Landmark Pointe 5 46 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Saratoga 6 49 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Bindseil Farms 1 84 Schertz/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

The Crossvine 1-4B 67 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

The Homestead 3B, 4 124 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz

Hunter’s Way 1 26 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens St. Hedwig

95 lots are in Cibolo

275 lots are in Schertz

21

AERIAL PHOTOS

APRIL 4, 2017

22

HUNTER’S WAY (St. Hedwig)

Future Asher Place

Future Heather’s Place

23

KENSINGTON RANCH

FM 1518

Schertz ESPaschal ES

Green Valley ES

48 lots left to close (Schertz ES zone)

Schertz ES

24

ESTATES AT MESA OAKS / MISTY WOODS /

BINDSEIL FARMS

Misty Woods – 36 lots (Paschal ES)

Bindseil Farms – 85 lots (Schertz ES zone)

Estates at Mesa Oaks – 56 lots (Paschal ES)

25

RHINE VALLEY

Corbett JH

26

THE CROSSVINE (Northwest Side)

Sedona

27

THE CROSSVINE (South Side)

28

NEW ROSE GARDEN ELEMENTARY

CONSTRUCTION

29

SARATOGA

30

TURNING STONE

Dean Rd.

31

LANDMARK POINTE

Green Valley Rd.

32

HOMESTEAD

FutureSCUC ISD

School Site

SCUC ISD

Comal ISD

33

CYPRESS POINT

SCUC ISD

Comal ISD

34

RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY ELEM. ZONE 1Q17

ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS

2Q16-1Q17

VACANT DEVELOPED

LOTS REMAINING

PLANNED

FUTURE

SINGLE FAMILY LOTS

PLANNED FUTURE

APARTMENT UNITS

CIBOLO VALLEY 256 458 376 0

GREEN VALLEY 124 242 219 0

PASCHAL 29 66 0 0

ROSE GARDEN 105 328 2,575 0

SCHERTZ 77 20 230 0

SIPPEL 109 526 1,303 0

WATTS 30 160 202 0

WIEDERSTEIN 4 16 2,648 600

TOTAL 734 1,816 7,553 600

Future apartment total has increased from 288 (Silverfin) to 600 total

units with the addition of the Trophy Oaks development in Red River Ranch

(312 units); both projects are currently in the Wiederstein ES zone

35

S.C.U.C ISD RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY IS, JH, AND HS ZONE

ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS2Q16-1Q17

VACANT

DEVELOPED

LOTS REMAINING

PLANNEDFUTURE

SINGLE FAMILY LOTS

PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENT

UNITS

JORDAN 108 298 5,223 600

SCHLATHER 430 1,112 1,816 0

WILDER 196 406 514 0

TOTAL 734 1,816 7,553 600

ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS2Q16-1Q17

VACANT

DEVELOPED

LOTS REMAINING

PLANNEDFUTURE

SINGLE FAMILY LOTS

PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENT

UNITS

CORBETT/CLEMENS 255 661 4,524 312

DOBIE/STEELE 479 1,155 3,029 288

TOTAL 734 1,816 7,553 600

36

DISTRICT NEW HOME OCCUPANCY FORECAST(Based on known projects as of 1Q 2017)

SCUC ISD poised to see an average of 745 new home

occupancies per year over the next five years

New apartment developments projected to open in

2018

Annual Period = 4Q-3Q

District is averaging 0.78 students per new

home occupancy

S.C.U.C. ISD continues to see an average of

0.33 students per multi-family unit

37

DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST (FALL 2017- FALL 2026) Moderate:

2.9% avg.

annual

growth over

the next 5

years before

leveling off

near 2.5%

Low:

2.1% Avg.

Annual

Growth

Projected Net Student Growth

3 Yrs: 1,3395 Yrs: 2,28610 Yrs: 4,167

38

DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST MODERATE CAMPUS PROJECTIONS VS. MAX CAPACITY

Max Capacity = 5,968

Max Capacity = 2,700 Max Capacity = 2,644

Max Capacity = 4,630

39

S.C.U.C. ISD 1Q17 SUMMARY• The district continues to see the 3rd most annual new home construction among Greater

San Antonio’s 32 school districts

• Since the 2011/12 school year, SCUC ISD has seen the 3rd most total enrollment growth among all Greater San Antonio school districts

• District new home builders produced 194 starts and 189 closings in 1Q17

Most 1st quarter starts in 9 years

• 734 new homes started and 826 occupied in the district over the past 12 months

SCUC ISD has averaged 725 closings per year since 2Q11 (start of current housing cycle)

• 49% of new home construction occurred in the City of Cibolo and 33% in Schertz

• Cibolo Valley ES attendance zone remains the most active with 36% of annual closings

• Rose Garden, Paschal, and Schertz zones combined to produce 32% of district closings

• District’s median new home price now a record $273,357 (+5.8% Y-o-Y)

• Developers delivered 960 new lots over the past 12 months

• 1,816 fully developed vacant single family lots remaining as of March 31, 2017

• 396 future lots under development (275 lots located in Schertz, 95 in Cibolo)

• Another 7,157 future single-family residential lots are planned plus 600 apartments

• SCUC ISD is projected to average 745 new homes per year over the next 5 years

• District enrollment is projected to increase by 2-3% annually over the next 5 years

Copyright 2017 School District Strategies

40

Copyright 2017 School District Strategies.

Although School District Strategies (SDS) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources it believes to be reliable and accurate, SDS

does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information. Information presented in this report represents SDS’s estimates as of the date of the report

and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or endorsement of any action taken by you or any third party in regard to

the subject matter of this report or any other real estate activity. SDS WILL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR SPECIAL DAMAGES,

INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) LOST PROFITS, OR DIMINUTION IN VALUE OF YOUR BUSINESS OR PROPERTY, ARISING FROM OR RELATING TO SDS’S SERVICES

HEREUNDER, REGARDLESS OF ANY NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES AND WHETHER OR NOT SUCH DAMAGES ARE REASONABLE OR FORESEEABLE UNDER

THE APPLICABLE CIRCUMSTANCES. SDS’S LIABILITY ON ANY CLAIM OF ANY KIND, INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE, FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ARISING OUT OF, CONNECTED

WITH, OR RESULTING FROM THIS REPORT OR THE SERVICES PROVIDED BY SDS SHALL IN NO SINGLE CASE, OR IN THE AGGREGATE, EXCEED THE AMOUNTS ACTUALLY

PAID TO SDS IN CONNECTION WITH THE REPORT.

The following contingencies and limiting conditions are noted as fundamental assumptions that may affect the accuracy or validity of the analysis and conclusions set

forth in this report. Specifically, the parties assume: that the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area, the State of Texas, and the nation as a whole will not suffer any

major economic shock during the time period of the forecast contained in this report; that general population levels will continue to increase at or above the rate

forecast; that the public and third party sources of statistical data and estimates used in this analysis are accurate and complete in all material respects, and that

such information is a reasonable resource for project planning purposes; the proposed real estate development projects described herein, when completed, will be

designed, promoted, and managed in a manner that will have an impact on the local market that is reasonably consistent with other similar projects in the past; and

that the recommendations set forth in this report will be acted upon within a reasonable period of time to preclude major changes in the factual conditions

evaluated.

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www.schooldistrictstrategies.com