scenarios s and x
DESCRIPTION
Shows parameters and modeling results of Scenario S and XTRANSCRIPT
Scenario S: Preferred Alternative
Scenario S:Creating Mixed-use Centers Around Major Transportation Areas Is The Primary Driver Of Improved Transportation Performance
• Plan a range of mixed use centers around transit– A few regional
centers– Many neighborhood
centers– Close access to
centers throughout the Vistas
Scenario S:Creating Mixed-use Centers Around Major Transportation Areas Is The Primary Driver Of Improved Transportation Performance
• Plan a range of mixed use centers around transit– A few regional
centers– Many neighborhood
centers– Close access to
centers throughout the Vistas
Scenario S:Creating Mixed-use Centers Around Major Transportation Areas Is The Primary Driver Of Improved Transportation Performance
• Plan a range of mixed use centers around transit– A few regional
centers– Many neighborhood
centers– Close access to
centers throughout the Vistas
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Scen
ario S
Scen
ario S+Households
Jobs
Scenario S: Enhanced Network• 7 Bus corridors• Within ½ mile of transit:
– 30% Households
– 47% Jobs
+19%
+28%
Scenario X: Basecase
Scenario X Land Use Parameters
• Half the housing units and jobs of Scenario A– 202,500 Housing Units
• 80% single family housing• Averaging about ~6 dwelling units per net acre (3-4 per gross), similar to
single family prevalent in the Gold Canyon and San Tan Valley areas– 150,000 Jobs
• Primarily strip commercial with some office • Retail and employment centers located at freeway and arterial
intersections• Small amount of multi-family located around interchanges and
employment centers• Less environmental sensitivity and open space
– More encroachment into washes– Development on slopes– Fewer parks, more golf courses
Scenario X Transportation Parameters
• No regional transit, limited local transit
• Freeways built as planned
• Highway 60 and 79 expanded to 6 lane expressways, but with surface intersections
• Extension of existing major arterials – Follow conventional arterial
pattern of one arterial per mile (use section lines)
Comparing Scenario S and X
Scenario X: BasecaseScenario S: Preferred Alternative
Total Population
1,060,563
510,651
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Scenario S Scenario X
Total Housing Units
407,909
196,404
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Scenario S Scenario X
Total Jobs
544,836
150,245
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Scenario S Scenario X
Developed Acres% of site
47%55%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Scenario S Scenario X
Vehicle Miles Traveled(per person per day)
23
11
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
U.S. A
vera
ge
Scen
ario S
Scen
ario X
Walk/Bike Trips(% of Total)
6%
19%
4%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
U.S. A
vera
ge
Scen
ario S
Scen
ario X
Daily Transit Ridership372,000
40,167
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Scen
ario S
Scen
ario X
Transportation Emissions (CO2)
Tons of CO2 per Year
0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000
Scen
ario
S
Scen
ario
X
Fleet 1: 22.5 MPG, 0%Electric
Fleet 4: 60 MPG, 20%Electric or RenewableFuel
Transportation Emissions (CO2)
Tons of CO2 per Year Per Capita
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Scen
ario
S
Scen
ario
X
Fleet 1: 22.5 MPG, 0%Electric
Fleet 4: 60 MPG, 20%Electric or RenewableFuel
Transportation Energy UseGallons of Gas per Day per Person
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Scen
ario
S
Scen
ario
X
Fleet 1: 22.5 MPG, 0%Electric
Fleet 4: 60 MPG, 20%Electric or RenewableFuel
Jobs-Housing Balance
1.34
0.76
0 0.5 1 1.5
Scenario S
Scenario X
Housing Mix Comparison
58%
14%
28%
80%
5%
15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Scenario S Scenario X
Multi-Family
Townhouse
Single Family
Scenario X continues current trends, Scenario S anticipates future demographic shifts and changing housing needs.
Employment Mix Comparison
23%
59%
18%
31%
59%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Scenario S Scenario X
Industrial
Office
Retail
Building Emissions (CO2)Annual CO2 (ton/yr)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Scen
ario S
Scen
ario X
BaselineGoodBetterBest
Building emissions are lower in Scenario X because employment buildings use more energy
Building Emissions (CO2)Annual CO2 (ton/yr) Per Capita
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Scen
ario S
Scen
ario X
BaselineGoodBetterBest
Building emissions are lower in Scenario X because employment buildings use more energy
Total Water Demand(Gallons/day - Building and Landscaping)
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Scen
ario S
Scen
ario S
BaselineGoodBetterBest
Total Water Demand(Gallons/day - Building and Landscaping) Per Capita
020406080
100120140160180
Scen
ario S
Scen
ario S
BaselineGoodBetterBest