David Wood@dw2

londonfuturists.com

Scenarios for smart devices in 2025

Brave New Smartphone and/or Black Mirror?

deltawisdom.com Graphic adapted from Imperial College TMT event

@dw2 Page 2

Brave New Smartphone?Frightened into submission?

Distracted into triviality?

Manipulated into compliance?

2025 smartphone?

SOMA

Access to a fake worldthat’s more engagingthan the real world?

Something that deeply exploits human psychology?

@dw2 Page 3

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/11/09/facebooks-first-president-on-facebook-god-only-knows-what-its-doing-to-our-childrens-brains/

Facebook’s first president, on Facebook:

“You’re exploiting a vulnerability in human psychology…”

“God only knows what it’s doing to our children’s brains”

Mark Zuckerberg and Sean Parker

https://www.axios.com/sean-parker-unloads-on-facebook-2508036343.html

@dw2 Page 4https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/10/early-facebook-employees-

regret-the-monster-they-created

“Most of the early employees I knoware totally overwhelmed by whatthis thing has become”

“They look at the role Facebook now plays in society, and howRussia used it during the election to elect Trump, and they havethis sort of ‘Oh my God, what have I done’ moment.”

“I lie awake at night thinking about all the things we built in the early days and what we could have done to avoid the product being used this way”

“Some early Facebook employees regret the monster they created”

Think harder about the consequences in advance

@dw2 Page 5http://mashable.com/2014/04/30/facebooks-new-mantra-move-fast-with-stability/

@dw2 Page 6

Answers?Questions!

Trend analysis

Scenario analysis

Key skills:Imagination

CollaborationStrategyAgility

Enhancement

Futurist?Disappointmentahead of disruption

Envision future scenarios

Evaluate future scenarios

Overcome future shock

Tools1. Credible?2. Desirable?3. Actionable?

@dw2 Page 7

“History does not repeat itself,but it rhymes”

Attributed to

Mark Twain, novellist

http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

@dw2 Page 8

@dw2 Page 9Vision: June 1998

Positive

feedback

cycle

Spottedtrends

Anticipatedconvergence

Patiently built a platform for collaboration

@dw2 Page 10

Handset manufacturers

Consumers &

enterprises

DevelopersNetworksEnhanced 2.5G and 3G

networks:

packets, high bandwidth,

good roaming, low latency

Large volumes of

advanced open

programmable

mobile phones

Mobile services,content & apps:boost revenues

(both data & voice)

Rich

component technologies

(hardware & software)

Standard open mobile OS

The smartphone market virtuous cycle

@dw2 Page 11

facts and figures• Original (1998) business plan predicted profitability in 3 years (2001)

• In reality it took 7 years to become profitable (2005)– We needed three additional major rounds of investment

– It took longer than expected to evolve technical platform solutions

• 8 years to reach 100 million smartphones sold (96 months)

• Another 18 months to sell next 100 million (< 96 weeks)

• Another 36 months to sell next 300 million (to 2010)

• But by this time, the high-profile, high-profit smartphoneswere being powered by iOS and Android (“phase 2 smartphones”)

• Symbian and partners had been overtaken by faster, more nimble, more effective companies from Silicon Valley

@dw2 Page 12

Disruption in the last 12 years

@dw2 Page 13

Smartphone Capability

Time

Feature phones(phase 0)

Phase 1 smartphones

1990 2000 2010

Software relatively unimportant

Software important

Software critical

Mini-computers

Supercomputers

Phase 2 smartphones

(superphones)

“Software is eating the world”

The future arrives in waves

Transitions between waves are difficult

@dw2 Page 14

New platformcapability

Disappointment

FurtherDisappointment

Again!

Old platform no longer

competitive

Disruptions can take a long time in gestationEven though they may eventually seem to blossom quickly

Previousplatform

New processes,

skills & tools

critically important

New platform hype

Poor usability, hard to configure

Services & apps missing or inadequate

Prepare for the change!

Opportunity:Take charge of

the change!

Technologyenthusiasts

@dw2 Page 15

Not being able to act on spotting the change

Worldview Phone-centric(Smartphones phase 1)

Internet-centric(Smartphones phase 2)

Most important app

Most important partners

Third-party apps (openness)

Source of most innovation

US market Dramatic influencerA laggard (troublesome)

Mobile industry

“Nice to have”

Network operators

Telephony (phone app)

Silicon Valley (and similar)

Fundamental new value

Silicon Valley developers

Web-browser (& web apps)

Smartphone characteristic Expensive, powerful, data-richSmall, robust, low cost

Not anticipating the degree of change

@dw2 Page 16

Corporate inertia• It’s hard to turn around

an oil tanker• It’s even harder to turn

around a flotilla of oiltankers, all moving inclose formation– Doing things that used to make their company successful

• The company often knows what needs to be done… but is unable to implement these changes– Advice from analysts is often accepted but then ignored

http://www.largestships.com/seawise-giant/

Knowing-doing gap!

@dw2 Page 17

Scientific method Open society

1st Industrial RevolutionSteam, mechanisation

1760…

2nd Industrial RevolutionElectricity, chemicals, mass production1880…

3rd Industrial RevolutionComputers, electronics1960…

4th Industrial RevolutionNBIC convergence2010…

Technological change

+120 years

+80 years

+50 years

@dw2 Page 18

BN

CI

NBIC Convergence

The 4th Industrial Revolution

@dw2 Page 19

Atoms Genes

Bits Neurons

Bio-Tech

Nano-Tech

Cogno-Tech

Info-Tech

Software

Hardware

BiologyPhysical

New machines

New algorithms

New minds

New life

@dw2 Page 20

B: Biotech:Genetic editing

Stem cell therapiesLab-grown meatEnhanced pets

The abolition of aging

N: Nanotech:Molecular manufacturing

3D & 4D printingNanobots & nanosensorsNext gen Green Energy

Quantum computers

I: Infotech:Machine learning -> AGI

Artificial creativityAffective computing (EQ)

Wearable computersAugmented Reality

C: Cognotech:Brain Computer Interfaces

Next gen Virtual RealityNootropics (smart drugs)

Mind suspension (cryonics)Consciousness engineering

Socialtech:FinanceLedgersCloudsLaws

MarketsRegulations

PrivacySecurityPolitics

Planetary tech:Hyperloop

Drone swarmsGeo-engineeringAsteroid miningSpace habitation

@dw2 Page 21

Beyond smartphones?• 1990s: Basic phones -> Feature phones

• 2000s: PDAs -> Smartphones (phase 1)

• 2010s: Smartphones -> Superphones

• 2020s: ?

– Smart glasses (wearable computers)

– Superphones in which AI is the leading app

– SHAs: Smart Human Augmenters

@dw2 Page 22

SHAs that: (1) Keep an eye on us• Observe what we’re doing (not just what we type)

– Listening to us, and to what we’re listening to

– Seeing us, and what we’re seeing

– Feeling what we’re feeling

• Utilising– Speech recognition (and other sound recognition)

– Computer vision (recognise objects, facial micro-expressions)

– Information from IDs and sensors embedded in the environment

– Communications within the IoT

– Contextual knowledge

– Computer general common sense

more accurately than our own senses

=> The IoAI:Internet of AIs

@dw2 Page 23The Guardian, 21st May 2015

“Computers will have developed ‘common

sense’ within a decadeand we could be counting them among our friends

not long afterwards”

Geoffrey HintonUniversity of Toronto

“Godfather of deep learning”

@dw2 Page 24

SHAs that: (2) Act as our guardian angel• Prevent us doing things against our better interest

– Especially when we may be vulnerable

– Impulse purchases

– Actions likely to be injurious to our health

– When we’re about to be socially engineered

– Impulse votes or petition signatures

– People to spend time with or fall in love with

• Utilising– Knowledge about us, the environment, and general knowledge

“Don’t type your password into that

screen”

The evolution of our spam filters and our newsfeeds

@dw2 Page 25https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/golfscape-gps-rangefinder/id382051762

Augmented Reality (AR)

via smart glasses

@dw2 Page 26

SHAs that: (3) Augment our understanding• Provide us key real-time info about the real-world

– Smart glasses, whisperers, nudgers, voice of God

– While attending to work tasks

– When we’re touring or sight-seeing

– While interacting with speakers of foreign languages

– While learning new skills (or hobbies)

– In social settings (who exactly is this person?)

– While watching TV or browsing online

– Providing instant, personalised fact-checking

@dw2 Page 27

SHAs that: (4) Transact for us• Execute our intent, even without our direct involvement

– With increasing degrees of delegated authority

– Finding the best deals for us for goods we purchase

– Recommending books or films or restaurants

– Purchasing shares that match our investment interests

– Steering us towards the best companions at social events

– Rearranging our schedules and booking us into best parties

– Sending tailored versions of our CV to job opportunities

– Negotiating with the online AIs serving other humans

The evolution of comparison websites

@dw2 Page 28

SHAs that: (5) Become our best friends• Engage us in conversations that enrich and enhance us

– The evolution of present-day chatbots

– Know us better than we know ourselves

– Know the best time to broach various subjects

– Know the best style of interaction for us

– Avoid annoying us or boring us, or appearing to nag

– Know the subjects that most intrigue us

– Act as fascinating, enlightening conversationalists

– Connect to our innermost self

– Steering us towards important personal realisations

@dw2 Page 29

Online AIsSHAs

Provided we solve the issues of security, collective human interaction design, etc

Get the socialtech right

@dw2 Page 30https://deltawisdom.com/books/