Scenarios for 2010 Scenarios for 2010 -- 2025 & Beyond: 2025 & Beyond: Analyzing the Impacts of Policies and Analyzing the Impacts of Policies and Technological Change Using Technological Change Using HyTransHyTrans

David L. Greene, ORNLDavid L. Greene, ORNLPaul N. Leiby, ORNLPaul N. Leiby, ORNL

David Bowman, David Bowman, EconotechEconotechElzbieta Tworek, StrataElzbieta Tworek, Strata--GG

20102010--2025 Scenario Analysis Workshop2025 Scenario Analysis WorkshopAugust 9August 9--10, 200610, 2006Washington, DCWashington, DC

HyTransHyTrans merges the 2010merges the 2010--2025 scenarios with 2025 scenarios with longerlonger--term policies to simulate durable transitions.term policies to simulate durable transitions.

Through 2025 the model is constrained to meet the Through 2025 the model is constrained to meet the scenario sales targets.scenario sales targets.

Estimates costs of vehicles and hydrogen, infrastructure Estimates costs of vehicles and hydrogen, infrastructure investments and implicit subsidies.investments and implicit subsidies.Estimates benefits of learningEstimates benefits of learning--byby--doing, scale economies, fuel doing, scale economies, fuel availability and market diversity.availability and market diversity.2010 DOE targets met, further progress beyond 2010.2010 DOE targets met, further progress beyond 2010.

In the later period (2025In the later period (2025--2050) vehicle and fuel 2050) vehicle and fuel subsidies might be needed for a durable transition.subsidies might be needed for a durable transition.

Price of oil a key factorPrice of oil a key factorCompetition with other advanced technologies also importantCompetition with other advanced technologies also importantHow will societal benefits be taken into account?How will societal benefits be taken into account?

Reduced oil dependenceReduced oil dependenceOpportunity to reduce GHG emissionsOpportunity to reduce GHG emissionsElimination of vehicle pollutant emissionsElimination of vehicle pollutant emissions

HyTransHyTrans integrates supply and demand in a integrates supply and demand in a dynamic market model to 2050.dynamic market model to 2050.

H2AH2AHydrogen ProductionHydrogen ProductionHydrogen DeliveryHydrogen Delivery

PSAT & ASCM PSAT & ASCM Fuel economyFuel economyCostCost

NMNL Vehicle Choice ModelNMNL Vehicle Choice ModelFuel availabilityFuel availabilityMake & model diversityMake & model diversityPrice, fuel economy, etc.Price, fuel economy, etc.

Vehicle ManufacturingVehicle ManufacturingScale EconomiesScale EconomiesLearningLearning--byby--doingdoing

GREET GHG emissions GREET GHG emissions Calibrated to Calibrated to NEMS AEO 2006NEMS AEO 2006 through 2030through 2030

For the 2010For the 2010--2025 analysis, two regions 2025 analysis, two regions were added: Pacific & Northeast.were added: Pacific & Northeast.

The 2 regions were subdivided: LA/NYC, The 2 regions were subdivided: LA/NYC, medium, and lower fuel use density.medium, and lower fuel use density.

Ten percent of merchant hydrogen Ten percent of merchant hydrogen production in the LA region was assumed to production in the LA region was assumed to be available for vehicles at $1/kg, plant gate.be available for vehicles at $1/kg, plant gate.

Technology cost and performance assumptions Technology cost and performance assumptions are based on the PSAT/ASCM analysis by are based on the PSAT/ASCM analysis by Rousseau, Sharer, Rousseau, Sharer, PageritPagerit & Das, 2005.& Das, 2005.MORE PSAT SCENAIROS NEEDED.MORE PSAT SCENAIROS NEEDED.

DOE 2010 GoalsDOE 2010 Goals AverageAverage Intermediate GoalsIntermediate Goals

Fuel Cell SystemFuel Cell System$/KW$/KW

$45$45 $60$60 $75$75

Hydrogen StorageHydrogen Storage$/kWh$/kWh

$4/$10$4/$10 -- --

Motor $/kWMotor $/kW $4$4 $4.50$4.50 $5$5

Batteries $/kWBatteries $/kW $20$20 $25$25 $30$30

Gasoline ICE $/kWGasoline ICE $/kW $21$21 $22$22 $23$23

Diesel ICE $/kWDiesel ICE $/kW $21$21 $24$24 $27$27

Two technology cost scenarios were taken from Rousseau Two technology cost scenarios were taken from Rousseau et al.et al.’’s PSAT + ASCM simulations. The average case s PSAT + ASCM simulations. The average case

represents substantial technologic progress.represents substantial technologic progress.

Effect of Technological Change on the Retail Price Equivalent Cost of Advanced Drivetrains

Full Scale Economies, Down the Learning CurveAverage Goals Scenario

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Ret

ail P

rice

Equ

ival

ent

Future Hydrogen FCV

Future Hydrogen HEV

Advanced Diesel HEV

Future Hydrogen SI ICE

Advanced Gasoline HEV

Advanced Diesel CI ICE

Advanced Gasoline SI ICE

In the DOE 2010 Goals scenario, all In the DOE 2010 Goals scenario, all technologies meet technologies meet FreedomCarFreedomCar 20102010 goals.goals.

Effect of Technological Change on the Retail Price Equivalent Cost of Advanced Drivetrains

Full Scale Economies, Down the Learning CurveDOE Freedom Car Goals Scenario

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Ret

ail P

rice

Equ

ival

ent Future Hydrogen FCV

Future Hydrogen HEV

Advanced Diesel HEV

Future Hydrogen SI ICE

Advanced Gasoline HEV

Advanced Diesel CI ICE

Advanced Gasoline SI ICE

Component efficiency assumptions also Component efficiency assumptions also reflect a combination of DOE 2010 program reflect a combination of DOE 2010 program

goals and judgment (Intermediate case).goals and judgment (Intermediate case).

DOE 2010 GoalsDOE 2010 Goals AverageAverage Intermediate GoalsIntermediate Goals

Fuel CellFuel Cell 60%60% 57.5%57.5% 55%55%

Gasoline ICEGasoline ICE 38%38% 36.5%36.5% 35%35%

Diesel ICEDiesel ICE 45%45% 42.5%42.5% 40.5%40.5%

Hydrogen ICEHydrogen ICE 42%42% 40%40% 38%38%

The DOE 2010 Goals scenario estimates higher The DOE 2010 Goals scenario estimates higher MPG, especially for electronic drive systems.MPG, especially for electronic drive systems.

PSAT Fuel Economy Estimates for Advanced Vehicles(Base LDV = 24.0 MPG)

31.7 33.4

46.1

58.2

33.4

51.9 49.8

62.9

28.331.9

39.5

48.9

31.9

43.6 42.7

52.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

AdvancedGasolineSI ICE

AdvancedDiesel CI

ICE

AdvancedGasoline

HEV

AdvancedDieselHEV

FutureHydrogen

SI ICE

FutureHydrogen

HEV

FutureGasoline

FCV

FutureHydrogen

FCV

Com

bine

d M

PG

HIGH AVE

Our hydrogen Our hydrogen ““fuel cell successfuel cell success”” scenario scenario combines DOE 2010 goals for combines DOE 2010 goals for FCVsFCVs with with ““averageaverage”” progress for other technologies.progress for other technologies.

AEO 2006 High World Oil Price Case: AEO 2006 High World Oil Price Case: $90/bbl by 2030$90/bbl by 2030

May not need postMay not need post--2025 policies 2025 policies equivalent to:equivalent to:

$1,000/vehicle for 10 years$1,000/vehicle for 10 yearsExemption from motor fuel excise tax for H2Exemption from motor fuel excise tax for H2

Greenhouse gas restrictions equivalent to:Greenhouse gas restrictions equivalent to:$50/ton CO$50/ton CO22 from 2015from 2015--20302030$100/ton CO$100/ton CO22 from 2030 onfrom 2030 on

In scenarios 1 and In scenarios 1 and 2 L.A. and N.Y.C. 2 L.A. and N.Y.C. get most of the get most of the early early FCVsFCVs. In . In

scenario 3 scenario 3 FCVsFCVsare distributed to are distributed to cities across the cities across the

U.S.U.S.

Vehicle Sales by Region

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Thou

sand

s of

Veh

icle

s

USA TotalRest US HDENSReg. 9 L.A.N.E. N.Y.C.Rest US MDENSRest US LDENSReg. 9 MDENSReg. 9 LDENSN.E. MDENSN.E. LDENS

Scenario 2

Vehicle Sales by Region

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Thou

sand

s of

Veh

icle

s

USA TotalRest US HDENSReg. 9 L.A.N.E. N.Y.C.Rest US MDENSRest US LDENSReg. 9 MDENSReg. 9 LDENSN.E. MDENSN.E. LDENS

Scenario 1Vehicle Sales by Region

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Thou

sand

s of

Veh

icle

sUSA TotalRest US HDENSReg. 9 L.A.N.E. N.Y.C.Rest US MDENSRest US LDENSReg. 9 MDENSReg. 9 LDENSN.E. MDENSN.E. LDENS

Scenario 3

In addition to more stations overall, Scenario 3 In addition to more stations overall, Scenario 3 gives a greater role to cities other than NY and LA.gives a greater role to cities other than NY and LA.

Estimated Station Deployment, Scenario 1

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Ref

uelin

g St

atio

ns

Rest of USALANYCRest of PacificRest of Northeast

Estimated Station Deployment, Scenario 3

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Ref

uelin

g St

atio

ns

Rest of USALARest of NortheastNYCRest of Pacific

Estimated Station Deployment, Scenario 2

-100100300500700900

110013001500

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Ref

uelin

g St

atio

ns

Rest of USALANYCRest of NortheastRest of Pacific

The 2010The 2010--2025 scenarios reduce the costs of hydrogen 2025 scenarios reduce the costs of hydrogen vehicles via learningvehicles via learning--byby--doing & scale economies.doing & scale economies.

(Progress ratio = 0.95)(Progress ratio = 0.95)Impacts of Time, Learning and Scale Economies on Technology

Costs in the Three Scenarios

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Driv

etra

in c

osts

($1,

000s

/veh

icle

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

H2-

FCV

Sale

s (1

,000

s)

Scenario 0 PriceScenario 1 PriceScenario 2 PriceScenario 3 PriceScenario 0 SalesScenario 1 SalesScenario 2 SalesScenario 3 Sales

They increase hydrogen availability within the lighthouse regionThey increase hydrogen availability within the lighthouse regions s to 10%to 10%--15% by 2020 in scenarios 1 & 2 and by 2025 in scenario 15% by 2020 in scenarios 1 & 2 and by 2025 in scenario

3. Levels somewhere between 10% and 30% are considered 3. Levels somewhere between 10% and 30% are considered acceptable to most consumers.acceptable to most consumers.

Hydrogen Fuel Availability in Los Angeles by Scenario

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Hyd

roge

n St

atio

ns a

s a

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al

Scenario 3

Scenario 2

Scenario 1R

Estimated program costs begin at about $250Estimated program costs begin at about $250--$500 million per year in 2012 and increase to $2$500 million per year in 2012 and increase to $2--

$4B per year in 2025.$4B per year in 2025.

Estimated Total Additional Costs by Scenario

$13.7

$23.1

$27.6

$5.6$9.5 $10.1

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Bill

ions

of 2

004

Dol

lars

Cumulative TotalDiscounted

Implicit vehicles subsidies reflect far more Implicit vehicles subsidies reflect far more learninglearning--byby--doing and scale economies.doing and scale economies.

Implicit Subsidies for FCVs and Hydrogen: Scenario 1

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180$200

2010 2014 2016 2020 2024

$1,0

00/V

ehic

le

$0.00$0.20$0.40$0.60$0.80$1.00$1.20$1.40$1.60$1.80$2.00

VehicleHydrogen

If world oil prices go to $90/bbl and If world oil prices go to $90/bbl and FCVsFCVs are are superior, Scenario 3 alone may be enough.superior, Scenario 3 alone may be enough.

U.S. Vehicle Sales, AEO 2006 High World Oil Prices, Scenario 3, Fuel Cell Success, No Subsidies After 2025

0

4

8

12

16

20

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ions

H2 Fuel CellGasoline HybridGasoline ICE

If oil prices remain high and all technologies meet If oil prices remain high and all technologies meet their 2010 targets, their 2010 targets, FCVsFCVs may share the market.may share the market.

U.S. Vehicle Sales, AEO 2006 High Oil Prices, Scenario 3, All Technologies Meet 2010 Targets

No Subsidies After 2025

0

4

8

12

16

20

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ions

H2 Fuel CellGasoline HybridGasoline ICE

If oil is $50/bbl in 2030, subsidies may be required If oil is $50/bbl in 2030, subsidies may be required to achieve a durable transition to hydrogen.to achieve a durable transition to hydrogen.

U.S. Vehicle Sales, AEO 2006 Reference Oil Prices, Scenario 3, Fuel Cell Success, H2 Tax Exemption and

$1,000 Subsidy to 2040

0

4

8

12

16

20

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ions

H2 Fuel CellGasoline HybridGasoline ICE

Higher onHigher on--board board storage costs storage costs

affect the affect the competition with competition with

hybrids.hybrids.

U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, AEO 2006 High World Oil Prices, Scenario 3, Fuel Cell Success, $4/kWhr On-board Storage Cost

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ions

Gasoline ICEGasoline HEVHydrogen FCV

U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, AEO 2006 High World Oil Prices, Scenario 3, Fuel Cell Success, $10/kWhr On-board Storage Cost

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ions

Gasoline ICEGasoline HEVHydrogen FCV

Several pathways are able to deliver hydrogen at nearly Several pathways are able to deliver hydrogen at nearly equal costs. This scenario shares production among four.equal costs. This scenario shares production among four.

Hydrogen Production by Pathway, DOE 2010 Goals Met,2006 AEO High World Oil Prices

Excise Tax Exemption, $1,000 Subsidy to 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ions

of k

g/yr

SMR

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Wind

Refineries

SMR Dist

Elec Dist

Pipeline

Tube Truck

Cryo Truck

In this scenario, for example coal does not appear In this scenario, for example coal does not appear but there is no impact on the cost of hydrogen.but there is no impact on the cost of hydrogen.

Hydrogen Production by Pathway, Fuel Cell Success, 2006 AEO High World Oil Prices

No Subsidies after 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ions

of k

g/yr

SMR

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Wind

Refineries

SMR Dist

Elec Dist

Pipeline

Tube Truck

Cryo Truck

By 2050, advanced By 2050, advanced HEVsHEVs and H2FCVs cut and H2FCVs cut car and light truck petroleum use to less car and light truck petroleum use to less

than than ¼¼ the current level.the current level.Fuel Use in Fuel Cell Success Scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ions

of G

allo

ns G

E

GasolineHydrogenTotal

With strong GHG policies, carbon dioxide With strong GHG policies, carbon dioxide emissions reductions of 1.6 emissions reductions of 1.6 GtGt COCO22 versus versus

extrapolated 2050 LDV emissions are achievable.extrapolated 2050 LDV emissions are achievable.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Gigatons CO2/yr.

2005 2050(0.9%/yr)

2050 w/oFCVs

2050 FCVs+C policy

Strong constraints ($50Strong constraints ($50--$90/tCO$90/tCO22) on GHG emissions shift ) on GHG emissions shift hydrogen production to low or negative net emissions hydrogen production to low or negative net emissions

processes, surprisingly to distributed SMR.processes, surprisingly to distributed SMR.

H2 Production by Source Under Large GHG Tax

0102030405060708090

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2060

Bill

Kg/

year

SMR-DistribBio w/ Seq. - PipelineBio w/ Seq. - Liq. TruckSMR-Liq TruckOther

Given that the Given that the FreedomCarFreedomCar goals are met in goals are met in 2010, a durable transition to hydrogen fuel 2010, a durable transition to hydrogen fuel

cell vehicles can be achieved by 2050.cell vehicles can be achieved by 2050.

The 2010The 2010--2025 scenarios,2025 scenarios,drive costs down the learning curve and establish scale drive costs down the learning curve and establish scale economieseconomiesinduce fuel availability of 10% to 30% in induce fuel availability of 10% to 30% in ““lighthouselighthouse”” regionsregions

Depending on technical success, policies equivalent to Depending on technical success, policies equivalent to subsidies of $1subsidies of $1--$2,000/vehicle over a decade combined with $2,000/vehicle over a decade combined with a motor fuel excise tax exemption for hydrogen should a motor fuel excise tax exemption for hydrogen should induce a complete or nearly complete transition.induce a complete or nearly complete transition.Several hydrogen pathways can supply hydrogen at a Several hydrogen pathways can supply hydrogen at a competitive price (<$3/kg).competitive price (<$3/kg).Oil use by lightOil use by light--duty vehicles would be cut by 75% by 2050.duty vehicles would be cut by 75% by 2050.With strong GHG policies, energy efficiency and hydrogen With strong GHG policies, energy efficiency and hydrogen from renewable resources or fossil fuels with sequestration, from renewable resources or fossil fuels with sequestration, could reduce lightcould reduce light--duty vehicle C emissions by 65% by 2050.duty vehicle C emissions by 65% by 2050.

Key factors contributing to a Key factors contributing to a successful transition include:successful transition include:

Meeting the Meeting the FreedomCarFreedomCar technology goals technology goals for for FCVsFCVs (Rousseau et al., 2005).(Rousseau et al., 2005).Incentives comparable to those extended to Incentives comparable to those extended to hybrid vehicles (~$1hybrid vehicles (~$1--2,000/vehicle) but at a 2,000/vehicle) but at a much larger scale (all new much larger scale (all new LDVsLDVs for 10 years) or for 10 years) or equivalent regulations.equivalent regulations.Recognition of the lower societal costs of Recognition of the lower societal costs of hydrogen equivalent to a motor fuel excise tax hydrogen equivalent to a motor fuel excise tax exemption (or continued high world oil prices).exemption (or continued high world oil prices).Strong policies to constrain C emissions Strong policies to constrain C emissions (equivalent to $50(equivalent to $50--$100/tC) to shift the mix of $100/tC) to shift the mix of hydrogen production to sustainable fuel cycles.hydrogen production to sustainable fuel cycles.

THANK YOU.THANK YOU.