PowerPoint Presentation

Scenarios and visionsSESSION 1Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan, 11-13 February 2013How to think about the future?Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA2Why to look at the future?

How the future looks like?

How to do it?Tools and methodsProjectionsScenariosUsing scenarios for strategy makingScenario planning process

2Why to think about the future?We dont know the futureWe all think about the future every day there are no future facts Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards. Sren Kierkegaardthere is increasing interest and need because of increasing dynamic, changes and complexity

3The need to look aheadThe world we have made, as a result of thinking we have done thus far, creates problems we can not solve at the same level of thinking at which we created them. (Einstein)

For future success in almost any area, we have to incorporate future effects into our current decision policy making. (Commissioner Potonik)New thinkingPreparednessThe UnknownAs we know, there are known knowns.There are things we know we know.

We also know, there are known unknowns.That is to say we know there are some thingswe do not know.

But there are also unknown unknowns.The ones we don't know, we don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld (12. Feb 2003, DOD Press Conference)

They didnt see it coming "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.

Thomas John Watson President of IBM(1874 - 1956)

Internal sales forecast for PCs for the 1980s: 295,000. Actual sales for PCs in the 1980s: over 25,000,000. IBM, 1979

8The challenge, in an institutional sense, is to develop processes that shift individual, and often unconscious thinking to collective and conscious thinking.

Designing your own response to the future infers:challenging unstated assumptions about the future yours, and your institutions,challenging the status quo, andthinking differently.

How the future looks like? Uncertian

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How to deal with the future? Many tools exist

Right tools at the right time

Zureck and Henrichs, 200712Tools: Forecast (..and than reality):

European wind association, 2008IEA long-term forecasts of annual publications: WorldIs it the right tool?13Single point forecastToday you get it wrong!TrendsTimingRange

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uncertaintiesThe danger of forecasting isIt is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.Tools: ScenariosScenarios are a plausible description of how the future may unfold based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (STEEP).

Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts. can be qualitative or combined with quantitativeSlide 16When are scenarios used?1) Support strategic planning/ decision making by:illustrating options for the futuresupporting robust decisisons by analysing related uncertainties, drivers and surprisesCan we prevent some problems by collection early warnings and acting early (or precautionary)?2) Improve the information base and relevance:Are we measuring /monitoring relevant issues? Will we met the targets/ goals 3) Science Research4) Education / Public Informationto educate and teach to raise awareness

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Emerging issues Earyl warningsScenarios, tipping points, surprises, discontinuitiesDistance to target analysesProjectionsUncertainties analysesScenarios (policy options)Scenarios to strategiesForward-looking component in ISScenarios options, goals, measures

EXAMPLE:Millennium assessment scenarios: biodiversity and economic growth

EXAMPLE: EEA Land use scenarios: scale of governance and markets2021

Scenario thinking processWe are hereScenario thinking for strategy building processElements of strategyFrom today to the future - strategyRevisiting existing strategyScenario planning process

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The elements of strategy

From today to the future

4 approaches to place the bets in strategies according to scenariosCore + satellites One big betSeveral betsSeveral betsSeveral betsRobustScenarios used to check existing visions

Scenarios used to check existing strategiesWind-tunelling30The Scenario Planning Process: A Visual Overview

(Concept Map Courtesy of Decision Strategies International)

Thank you!32

Scenarios to strategiesScenarios are plausible futures. With the strategy we want to make desired future happen.

Typical project structureAnalysis and Implica-tions for policyUnderpinning review of evidence baseSystems mappingScenario developmentQualitative modelling of policy response impactDevelopment of quantitative model and analysisActionScoping342 year projects3 at any one time3-4 Horizon scanning projectsImportance of follow up