scenario report july v2

DRAFT SCENARIO REVIEW

July 2013 DRAFT

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Purpose:This draft report fulfills one of the requirements within the contract entitled, “Southeast Florida’s Regional Vision and Blueprint for Economic Prosperity (Sustainable Communities Initiative) – Master Contract”, approved by the South Florida Regional Planning Council on November 7, 2011.

Introduction:Four scenarios for the year 2060 were created:

• Trend:StayingtheCourse• Plan1:SuburbanExpansion• Plan2:StrategicUpgrades• Plan3:RegioninMotion

Thesescenariosexistbothas illustrativeplansforthepurposesofcommunicatingtheeffectsofchanges in landuse, transportation, environmental and agricultural policy, primarily for a lay audience; and as GIS (Geographic Information Systems) data, for the purpose of modeling the effects of such changes based on key indicators.

Preface

1 Scenario Mapping

3 KeytoReadingtheScenarioMaps

5 Trend: Staying the Course13 Plan1:SuburbanExpansion21 Plan2:StrategicUpgrades29 Plan3:RegioninMotion

A Analysis of Existing Conditions

A.1 ExistingLandUseA.9 ExistingAgriculturalLandsA.17 ExistingTransitNetworkA.25 ExistingIntersectionDensityA.33 ExistingClassificationofStreets:AutomobileA.41 ExistingClassificationofStreets:Pedestrian

B Comparative Analysis of Scenarios

WalkabilityB.1 ExistingWalkabilityB.9 Plan2:StrategicUpgradesWalkabilityB.17 Plan3:RegioninMotionWalkability

ResidentialUnitsPerAcrebyTrafficAnalysisZone(TAZ)B.25 ExistingResidentialUnits/AcrebyTAZB.33 Trend:StayingtheCourseResidentialUnits/AcrebyTAZB.41 Plan1:SuburbanExpansionResidentialUnits/AcrebyTAZB.49 Plan2:StrategicUpgradesResidentialUnits/AcrebyTAZB.57 Plan3:RegioninMotionResidentialUnits/AcrebyTAZ

B.65 AreasVulnerableto2’SeaLevelRisein2060

Table of Contents

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Scenario MappingThe physical scenarios are influenced by a number of major policy decisions, including location of population growth, prioritization of transit, and the push for climate change adaptation. Climate change mitigation plays a large role in determining land availability for development, as well as influencing which areas will face outward migration due to climate vulnerability.

Population growth in the seven county region will be accommodated primar-ily in one of two ways. The first is to increase density through infill develop-mentandredevelopmentinpreviouslydevelopedareasutilizingexistinginfra-structure.The second is to continue expansion intopreviouslyundevelopedlocations.Expansionopportunitieswillprovetobelimited,particularlyintheSouthern counties, as demonstrated in both the Trend: Staying the Course and Plan1:SuburbanExpansionscenarios.

Amajor elementof evaluating future scenarios is the extensionofwalkableneighborhoods and usage of transit oriented development. When implemented correctly, they can be used as a method of encouraging population growth con-centration in less vulnerable areas, and to continue in a more regionally sustain-able manner. Though there are numerous differences within the plans, the role oftransitinaccommodatingpopulationgrowth,bothexistingandproposed,plays a major role in differentiating between the scenarios. Plan 2: Strategic Upgrades,andPlan3:RegioninMotion,demonstratewaysofaccommodat-ing future growth by encouraging infill development within walkable areas.

Increased density goes hand-in-hand with investments in transit and improve-mentstomakestreetsmorepedestrian-friendly.Examplesofsuchinvestmentshave already started to take place along Miami’s Metrorail line, and can be seeninneighborhoodssuchasSouthMiami,BrickellandDowntownKendall.Even within already established growth areas, a great deal of future growth may occur. With enough investment and retrofit of streets into comfortable public spaces, these areas have the potential to mature into lively urban neighbor-hoods.

TheTrend:StayingtheCourseandPlan1:SuburbanExpansionscenariosas-sume that walkable areas will continue to develop around the Miami Metrorail stations. These are first priority areas for investment in walkability.

The FEC rail line, originally developed by Henry Flagler, historically carried passengers along Florida’s east coast and created many of the state’s original settlements. Reviving passenger rail service along this line restores connections to these historic communities that were severed decades ago with the

Seven50: SE Florida Prosperity Plan

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discontinuation of passenger service. These communities will benefit greatly from investments in walkability, including reinvestment and infill development. DelrayBeachandWestPalmBeachhavealreadyseensubstantialgrowthasaresult of such mechanisms.

Plan 2: Strategic Upgrades, assumes that walkable areas will also developaroundtheexistingTri-RailstationsaswellasaroundplannedFECpassengerrailstationswithinMiami-DadeandBrowardCounties,inadditiontotheMi-ami Metrorail stations.

Plan3:RegioninMotionassumesthatinadditiontotheareasinPlan2,walk-able areas will also develop around proposed FEC passenger rail stations in PalmBeach,Martin,St.LucieandIndianRiverCounties.

Walkableneighborhoodsshouldallincorporatesomelevelofmixed-usesandbe designed with pedestrians and cyclists in mind. Having living, working, shopping,educational,andrecreationalopportunitiesincloseproximityisofincreased importance as cities mature. In recent years, health problems such as obesity, heart disease, high blood pressure, and the maladies associated with so-cial alienation are increasing in prevalence, in part due to a built-environment that does not allow walking or facilitate human interaction. Encouraging walk-ability helps establish healthy life styles.

The young and the elderly, are particularly vulnerable to being left behind by urban forms that necessitate driving long distances. A wide investment in walk-able places brings more of the activities of daily living within walking distance of residential areas and a framework of transportation alternatives including transitandbicyclesystemsandencouragestheuseofamixoftravelmodes(pedestrian, bicycle, transit, and car). Walkable communities are formed from a number of elements, such as a fine-grained network of connected streets; a mixofusesandamenitieswithinwalkingdistance;buildingsfrontingstreets;narrow streets; streets with managed speeds; sidewalks; and on-street parking.

It is important to consider vehicular speed when determining walkability of an area, due to its relationship with pedestrian fatalities. In a crash with a vehicle travelinggreaterthan30mph,pedestrianmortality isgreaterthan50%, in-creasingto85%foravehicletraveling40mph.Thisrequiresachangeinpriori-tiesfrommovingasmuchtrafficasquicklyaspossible–attheexpenseofothermodes and adjacent land uses – to providing choices, equilibrium, and connec-tions between driving, transit, walking, and bicycling. It also requires a serious commitment to effective public transit that links together walkable areas to create a healthy region in which one can move around without needing a car.


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Key to the Reading the Scenario Maps

Major Transit Oriented Development SitesSites with heavy rail passenger stations with long distance or regional service like Tri-Rail and corresponding walkable urban development at densities which support the transit investment.

Minor Transit Oriented Development SitesSites with urban circulators like streetcars, electric trolleys, and bus rapid transit operate and corresponding walkable urban development is created at densities which support the transit investment.

Walkable CorridorsCorridors designated for increased walkability including wide sidewalks, regular street trees, bicycle facilities, and urban format buildings.

Areas Vulnerable to 2’ Sea Level RiseSites that face inundation with a 2’ sea level rise assuminga3’hightide.

Areas Vulnerable to High Water Events Sites that face inundation from high water events such as storm surge with a 2’ sea level rise.

Natural Protected Lands

Agricultural Lands

Population Development Pressure

Potential Areas for Reinforced Coastline To avoid inundation adaptation mechanisms (drainage, pumping, levee systems, beach replenishment, etc.) may be necessary.


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Walkable Areas & Transit Oriented Development Sites

The atlas shows a close-up of one of the scenario models created by the Seven50 Team for the region. It illustrates proposed land use and transportation frameworks for the region that create more multi-modal and walkable areas.

Magenta Areas on the MapsMagentaareas includeMajorTransitOrientedDevelopmentSites,MinorTransitOrientedDevelopmentSites,andWalkableCorridors.Theseareasindicate improved walkability and bikeability in order to capitalize on the investmentmadeintransitand/orthoroughfareimprovements.Walkable/bikeable improvements include items such as greater sidewalk/bike routeconnectivity, more continuous street tree shade canopy and increased ease of crossing intersections. Where needed, improvements should include adjustments to land development regulations to permit and promote pedestrian-friendly development including: buildings establishing a well-shaped public street space, doors and windows facing the street, minimization of blank walls and back-of house service areas facing the street and less obtrusive parking, generally placed to the rear and sides of buildings. These areas may also warrant adjustments to land development regulations to permitanincreaseofdevelopmentintensityandmixingofuses.

Magenta Around Major Transit Oriented Development SitesThree-tiered magenta circles indicate improved walkability and bikeability aroundheavypassengerrailstationssuchasalongtheexistingMetrorailandTri-Rail systems. The tiered system indicates the improved walkability and bikeability with the greatest focus on improvements within ¼ mile radius, intermediate focus on improvements within ½ mile radius and moderate focus on improvements within a 1-mile radius of stations. The larger emphasis on walkability around heavy rail transit stations is commensurate with the increased capital investment in these transportation facilities.

Minor Transit Oriented Development SitesTwo-tiered magenta circles indicate improved walkability and bikeability near urban transportation circulators such as streetcars or bus rapid transit stations. The tiered system indicates the improved walkability and bikeability with the greatest focus on improvements within ¼ mile radius and moderate focus on improvements within a ½ mile radius of station or stops.

Primary North-South and East-West ThoroughfaresSinglecoloredlinearstripesofmagentaextendingapproximately¼mileoneachside of north-south and east-west corridors indicate improved walkability and bikeability along these primary road connections. Many of these corridors are currently served with conventional bus transit and therefore could potentially be good candidate locations for an increase of development intensity and mixingofuses.Focusofincreaseddevelopmentintensityandmixingofusesalong these primary corridors will help to absorb development pressure over time in a logical pattern and will thereby help to preserve the character of the primarily residential neighborhoods bounded by these corridors while also providing services within a closer range of these neighborhoods.

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The Southeast Florida Region continues developing along its current trend with no major changes in regional growth, transportation, environmental, social, and/oreconomicpolicies.

New development is pushed to the edges of metropolitan areas, causing widespread loss of farmland and environmentally sensitive lands, particularly inthenortherncountiesofIndianRiver,St.LucieandMartin.Developmentislargely automobile-dependent, resulting in further strains on the suburban road networks and creating routine traffic jams during peak hours. New highways are built,andexistingonesareexpandedatgreatexpenseinthehopesofrelievingtrafficcongestion.Theexpandedcapacityhowever,isquicklyoverwhelmedwithtraffic from new development spawned by these new roadways and a growing population. Development pressures at the edges of existing developmentcreatenewstressesontheurbandevelopmentboundariesinMiami-DadeandBrowardcountiestobeexpandedinordertoaccommodatedemand.

Meanwhile, demographic changes demand more pedestrian-friendly urban environments, yet constrained supplies of walkable areas causes the prices in these places to rise, putting them out of reach of large portions of the population. Energy and transportation costs also continue to rise, putting a strain on household budgets, especially throughout the automobile-dependent suburban stretches of the region. Current efforts to expand transportationoptionsalongkeycorridorssuchasUS-1andtheTri-Rail linecontinue;yetnew development along these corridors remains badly connected to other walkableareasandexistingdowntowns.Thelimitedamountoftransit-servedareas creates development at these locations to often take the form of high-rise buildingswithoutmanymiddle densities tomake the transition to existingsingle-family neighborhoods.

Sea-level rise gradually affects more and more of the region, causing widespread flooding in low-lying areas. Many areas are unable to afford necessary investments in storm-water infrastructure and shoreline protection measures to protect key areas from the effects of sea-level rise. Slowly people will migrate away from vulnerable areas as they are forced to deal with the effects of sea-level rise more often.

Current Everglades restoration projects continue, yet a lack of regional cooperationpreventstheseeffortsfromextendingtotherestoftheEvergladesecosystem.Saltwaterintrusioncausesextensivedamagetotheenvironment,as well as decreased access to fresh water, unless cost-prohibitive measures such as desalinization plants are put in place.

Trend: Staying the Course


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LEGENDHighwayMajor ArterialRailCommuter RailTransit StopTransit Oriented Development AreaUrbanized AreaPreserved Natural Areas & ParksFarmlandCanalsAirport or PortAreas Vulnerable to 2’ Sea Level RiseAreas Vulnerable to High Water Events Potential areas for Reinforced CoastlinePopulation Development Pressure

Metrics to Compare Scenarios• Transit Investment: Low to Moderate

Transit Investment • Percentage of Trips By Transportation

Option (Mode Share):Car(98%),Transit(1%),Bike(.5%),Walk(.5%)

• Distance To Transit:70%ofhouseholdswilllive within walking distance (1 mile) of transit.

• Distance To Schools: 40% of householdswill live within walking distance (1 mile) of a public school.

• Distance To Parks: 25%ofhouseholdswilllive within walking distance (1 mile) of a park.

• Vehicle Emissions/Pollution: 9.6 Million vehicular trips contribute to air pollution yet fossil fuel emissions are increasedby100%of today.

• Transportation Costs: Total%ofHouseholdIncomeSpentonTransportationCosts:20%

• Housing Costs: Total%ofHouseholdIn-comeSpentonHousingCosts:40%

• Health/Obesity Rates: The prevalence of obesity in Southeast Florida continues to rise, with an increase from 24% to 28.5%.Somecountieshaveratesashighas41%.

• Artists in the Workplace: A moderate in-creaseofartistsintheworkplacefrom1.5%To 1.8%, Just below the greater Orlando/Tampa metro as the largest artistic commu-nity in Florida.

• Creative Class In The Workforce: The cre-ativeclasscontinuesaslowexpansion,reach-ing27%from2000levelsof24%.SoutheastFlorida continues to be ranked in the 200s, below most major metropolitans.

• Regional Migration: migration patterns follow historic patterns with the majority of new residents migrating toward the southern counties.

• Migration Within The County: population reallocationsaretobothnewareasandtoex-isting population centers.

• Farmland: 250+ Square Miles Farmland Consumed

• New Roads to Build & Maintain: 10,362LinearFeetofNewCountyandLocalRoad-ways(Cost:$10.3billion)

• New Infrastructure to Build & Maintain: 2.1Million Linear Feet ofNewWater andSewerLaterals(Cost:$21billion)

Trend: Staying the Course


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Trend:StayingtheCourse-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties


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Trend:StayingtheCourse-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties


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Trend:StayingtheCourse-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties


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Trend: Staying the Course - upper Monroe County


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Trend: Staying the Course - lower Monroe County


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Inthisscenariotheregioncontinuestogrowasithasbutwitha7.5%increasein population migration towards the north from the Trend scenario. There are no major changes in transportation, environmental, social or economic policies from today except for the policies thatwould encourage less growth in thesouthern counties and more growth in the northern counties.

Greater development of low density single family homes is pushed into the northerncountiesofIndianRiver,St.Lucie,andMartin.Thisisdueinpartdue to the lack of undeveloped affordable land in the south and its abundant availability in the north, causing an even greater loss of farmland and environmentally sensitive lands than the Trend scenario. New highways, road widening projects, and flyover lanes are added to rural areas to expand thefootprint of development and increase traffic capacity as development occurs.

At the same time, another percentage of the population demands vibrant, pedestrian-friendly environments. While transit oriented development areas aredevelopingaroundexistingMetrorailandTri-RailstationsinthesoutherncountiesofMiami-DadeandBroward,connectedwalkableareasremainlimited.This perpetuates the almost certain need to own a car and causes housing costs to rise even higher for these sought after locations. Rising housing costs in addition to transportation costs throughout the region consume an average of 50%ofahousehold’sincome,makingitunaffordableformostpeople.

Sea-level rise gradually affects more and more of the region, causing widespread flooding in low-lying areas. Many areas are unable to afford necessary investments in storm-water infrastructure and shoreline protection measures to protect key areas from the effects of sea-level rise. Slowly people will migrate away from vulnerable areas as they are forced to deal with the effects of sea-level rise more often.

Current Everglades restoration projects continue, yet a lack of regional cooperationpreventstheseeffortsfromextendingtotherestoftheEvergladesecosystem.Saltwaterintrusioncausesextensivedamagetotheenvironment,as well as decreased access to fresh water, unless cost-prohibitive measures such as desalinization plants are put in place.

Plan 1: Suburban Expansion


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Metrics to Compare Scenarios• Transit Investment: LowTransitInvestment• Percentage of Trips By Transportation

Option (Mode Share):Car(98%),Transit(1%),Bike(.5%),Walk(.5%)




• Vehicle Emissions/Pollution: 8 Million ve-hicular trips contribute to air pollution yet fossil fuel emissions are increasedby150%of today.



• Health/Obesity Rates: Obesity escalates from a concern to a full health crisis. An en-tire 33%of the region is considered obese,withover50%insomecommunities.

• Artists in the Workplace: A decrease in art-ists by 33% from existing conditions, from1.5%to1.0%,droppingtheregionfromitsranking as a top 50 community to 200, with similarly ranked regions including Wichita, KSandMelbourne,FLareas.

• Creative Class In The Workforce: The cre-ative class begins to shift away from the area, leavingonlya21%average,representingthebeginning of a brain drain phenomenon for the region.

• Regional Migration:7.5%increaseinSouthto North migration from Trend.

• Migration Within The County: Population reallocations are primarily toward newly de-veloped areas.

• Farmland: 480+ Square Miles Farmland Consumed

• New Roads to Build & Maintain: 9,085 Feet of New County and Local Roadways(Cost: $9.1 Billion)

• New Infrastructure to Build & Maintain: 1.9Million Linear Feet ofNewWater andSewerLaterals(Cost:$19Billion)

Plan1:SuburbanExpansion


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Plan1:SuburbanExpansion-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties


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Plan1:SuburbanExpansion-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties


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Plan1:SuburbanExpansion-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties


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Plan1:SuburbanExpansion-upperMonroeCounty


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Plan1:SuburbanExpansion-lowerMonroeCounty


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Ahigh percentage of the roughly 3million new residents in the region areaccommodated in complete, compact, walkable, mixed-use areas served bytransit along Tri-Rail and the Florida East Coast rail line, primarily within Miami-DadeandBrowardCounties.Publicinvestmentsarecarefullyselectedand strategically located to have the greatest impact such as redesigning key streets to encourage more mobility options like walking, cycling, and transit.

This plan extends walkable areas along several significant corridors. Thefirstof these is theUS-1corridor inMiami-DadeCounty,with the region’spremier bus-rapid transit service in operation. Nodes of investment in walkable development should be created along every major stop along this line and aroundexistingTri-Railstationsthroughouttheregion.Astheseareasmature,further investments in transit can be made, prioritizing station areas for walkabledevelopment.Thisscenarioalsoextendswalkabilityalongmanyofthemajor corridors that connect the region north-south and east-west, particularly inMiami-Dade and Broward Counties, bringing consistent transit coverageto these areas. The systematic redesign of streets to encourage a wider range of transportation options is a first step to creating a healthy region, with an improved quality of life. More livable streets in turn encourage redevelopment along these corridors, helping to accommodate future growth and bringing dailyneedsincloserproximitytoexistingneighborhoods.

Climate change adaptation becomes a priority. Sea-level rise gradually affects more and more of the region, causing widespread flooding in low-lying areas. Although many areas are unable to afford necessary investments, economically prosperousandproductivemunicipalitiessuchasMiamiBeachmakeextensiveinvestments in storm-water infrastructure to protect key areas from at least some of the effects of sea-level rise. Current Everglades’s restoration projects continue and regional and state cooperation bolster the efforts to help mitigate the effects of saltwater intrusion for additional years.

Plan 2: Strategic Upgrades


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Metrics to Compare Scenarios• Transit Investment: Moderate transit investment:North/SouthMajorTODsalongFEC line and CSX line (regional rail).

• Percentage of Trips By Transportation Option (Mode Share):Car(75%),Transit(15%),Bike(8%),Walk(2%)




• Vehicle Emissions/Pollution: 7.8 Million vehicular trips contribute to air pollution yet fossil fuelemissionsare reducedby20%oftoday.



• Health/Obesity Rates: The rate of obesity declinesslightlyfrom24%to20%.Nocoun-tyinSoutheastFloridahasabovea25%rate.

• Artists in the Workplace: An increase of artists in the workplace from 1.5% of thetotalworkforcepopulationto2.75%placingSoutheast Florida within the top 5 creative regionscountrywide(examplesincludeBoul-der,LosAngelesandSanFrancisco).

• Creative Class In The Workforce:30%ofSoutheast Florida’s working force is part of the creative class, pushing the region closer to the top of regions, bringing the region in line with areas with a high number of universities.

• Regional Migration: No change in South to North migration from Trend.

• Migration Within The County: Population reallocations (due to flooding, high commute times,etc.)gotomajorTODareas.

• Farmland: 150 Square Miles Farmland Consumed

• New Roads to Build & Maintain: 8,408 LinearFeetofNewCountyandLocalRoad-ways (Cost: $8.4 Billion)

• New Infrastructure to Build & Maintain: 1.8Million Linear Feet ofNewWater andSewerLaterals(Cost:$18Billion)

Plan2:StrategicUpgrades


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Plan2:StrategicUpgrades-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties


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Plan2:StrategicUpgrades-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties


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Plan2:StrategicUpgrades-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties


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Plan2:StrategicUpgrades-upperMonroeCounty


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Plan2:StrategicUpgrades-lowerMonroeCounty


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Asignificantpercentageoftheroughly3millionnewresidentsareaccommodatedinwalkable,transitorienteddevelopmentsalongexistingraillinessuchastheFEC linewhich extends fromMiami to Sebastian Inlet and beyond. Streetdesign for the region gets a “software upgrade” for multi-modalism including connecting most neighborhoods to rail transit by streetcar or bus. This includes a reprioritizationofwhat streets are utilized for.Design speeds are loweredallowing for other priorities and provide a balance between all users of the rights of way - private vehicles, transit, cyclists, and pedestrians. Western centers for urban development are identified and the region attracts young, highly paid, information economy workers.

Meeting future demand in only transit oriented development areas, however, would require levels of density that not everyone is comfortable living in. A more comprehensive approach increases the amount of area devoted to walkable, transit-oriented development. Wider investment allows for middle-range densities that are currently missing in the Southeast Florida real-estate markets.Middledensitiesincludeadiversityofhousingtypessuchasduplexes,rowhouses, small apartment buildings andmixed-use buildings. This assistsin creating affordable housing throughout the region without creating large concentrations of any one type of housing. A diversity of housing also allows a variety of people in different stages of their lives to live harmoniously together, generating a more stable, active community.

ThisscenariofurtherextendswalkableareasbeyondthoseinPlan2:StrategicUpgrades,bycreatingnodesof investmentalongcorridors, includingseveralwestern centers of urban development. Through a serious commitment to transit, these corridors can connect to the regional economic and transportation centers. With careful investment and redevelopment, a series of walkable, livable neighborhoods can emerge, creating important corridors of economic prosperity in the region.

Climate change adaptation becomes a high priority. Numerous areas along the coasts are protected against some effects of sea level rise with increased investments throughout the region to install stormwater back-flow preventers, increase storm walls, and invest in other technological advancements in order to protect high investment areas within the region. Current Everglades restoration projects continue and regional and state cooperation bolster the efforts to help mitigate the effects of saltwater intrusion for additional years.

Plan 3: Region in Motion


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Metrics to Compare Scenarios• Transit Investment: High transit investment: North/SouthMajorTODsalongFEClineandCSX line (heavy rail/premium transit),East/WestMinorTODsalonginter-countytransitlines (streetcars, bus rapid transit).

• Percentage of Trips By Transportation Option (Mode Share):Car(60%),Transit(20%),Bike(10%),Walk(10%)




• Vehicle Emissions/Pollution: 7.4 Million ve-hicular trips contribute to air pollution yet fos-silfuelemissionsarereducedby40%oftoday.



• Health/Obesity Rates: The rate of obesity is 17%, less thanmanymetros around theUSandinFlorida.Transportationchoices&walkable areas help avoid the rate increase.

• Artists in the Workplace: An increase in artistic employment from 1.5% to 3.34%,establishing Southeast Florida as the #1 cre-ativeenclaveintheUS,exceedingNewYork,Portland, and the current leader, Santa Fe.

• Creative Class In The Workforce: The cre-ativeclassmakesup35%ofthetotalworkingpopulation, bringing the region average up to the top50of theUS.Other regionswithinthetop50includeWashingtonD.C.,Atlanta,NewYork,LosAngeles,andChicago.

• Regional Migration:15%increaseinNorthto South migration from Trend.

• Migration Within The County: Movement to More Resilient Areas: Greater population reallocations than Strategic Interventions (due to flooding, high commute times, etc.) gotomajorandminorTODareas.

• Farmland: 60 Sq. Miles Farmland Consumed • New Roads to Build & Maintain: 8,012 LinearFeet ofNewCounty&LocalRoad-ways (Cost: $8 billion)

• New Infrastructure to Build & Maintain: 1.6MillionLinearFeetofNewWater andSewerLaterals(Cost:$16billion)

Plan3:RegioninMotion


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Plan3:RegioninMotion-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties


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Plan3:RegioninMotion-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties


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Plan3:RegioninMotion-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties


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Plan3:RegioninMotion-upperMonroeCounty


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Plan3:RegioninMotion-lowerMonroeCounty

Analysis of Existing Conditions

A.1

Existing Conditions Land Use


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LEGENDResidential - Single Family

Institutional/PublicVacantIndustrialCommercialMixed UseResidential - Multi-Family

AgricultureRecreation FacilitiesParks/Open SpaceWater/Wetlands

ExistingConditions:LandUse


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Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County




LandUse-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties


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Palm Beach County

Broward County

LandUse-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties





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Miami-Dade County

LandUse-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties





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Monroe County




LandUse-upperMonroeCounty


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Monroe County




LandUse-lowerMonroeCounty


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A.9

Existing Conditions Agricultural Lands


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ExistingConditions:AgriculturalLands

LEGENDAgriculture Land


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Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County


AgriculturalLands-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties


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Palm Beach County

Broward County


AgriculturalLands-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties


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Miami-Dade County


AgriculturalLands-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties


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Monroe County


AgriculturalLands-upperMonroeCounty


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Monroe County


AgriculturalLands-lowerMonroeCounty


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Existing ConditionsTransit Network


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LEGENDAirportsAviation FacilitiesRailTransit StopBus Routes

ExistingConditions:TransitNetwork


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Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

TransitNetwork-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties



A.20

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

TransitNetwork-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties



A.21

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

TransitNetwork-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties



A.22

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County


Transit Network - upper Monroe County


A.23

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County


Transit Network - lower Monroe County


A.24

DRAFTScenarioReport


A.25

Existing Conditions Intersection Density


A.26

DRAFTScenarioReport

IntersectionsThe color represents different levels of intersection densities based on the intersection numbers.

1/4 Mile GridThemapisdividedby1/4milegrid.

NUMBERS OF INTERSECTIONS PER 1/4 MILE0-56-1011-2526-3536-5051-100

ExistingConditions:IntersectionDensity


A.27

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

IntersectionDensity-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties



A.28

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

IntersectionDensity-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties



A.29

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

IntersectionDensity-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties



A.30

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County


IntersectionDensity-upperMonroeCounty


A.31

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County


IntersectionDensity-lowerMonroeCounty


A.32

DRAFTScenarioReport


A.33

Existing Conditions Classification of Streets

Automobile


A.34

DRAFTScenarioReport

LEGENDPrimarySecondaryTertiary

ExistingConditions:ClassificationofStreets:Automobile


A.35

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

ClassificationofStreets:Automobile-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties



A.36

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

ClassificationofStreets:Automobile-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties



A.37

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

ClassificationofStreets:Automobile-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties



A.38

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

Classification of Streets: Automobile - upper Monroe County



A.39

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County


Classification of Streets: Automobile - lower Monroe County


A.40

DRAFTScenarioReport


A.41

Existing Conditions Classification of Streets

Pedestrian


A.42

DRAFTScenarioReport


ExistingConditions:ClassificationofStreets:Pedestrian


A.43

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

ClassificationofStreets:Pedestrian-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties



A.44

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

ClassificationofStreets:Pedestrian-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties



A.45

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

ClassificationofStreets:Pedestrian-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties



A.46

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County


Classification of Streets: Pedestrian - upper Monroe County


A.47

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County


Classification of Streets: Pedestrian - lower Monroe County

Comparative Analysis of Scenarios

B.1

Walkability Map Existing Conditions


B.2

DRAFTScenarioReport

WalkabilityThe color represents different levels of walkability.

ExistingWalkability

WALKABILITY LEVELCar-DependentRarely WalkableSometimes WalkableWalkableNot Applicable


B.3

DRAFTScenarioReport

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

ExistingWalkability-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties



B.4

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

ExistingWalkability-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties



B.5

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

ExistingWalkability-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties



B.6

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

ExistingWalkability-upperMonroeCounty



B.7

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

ExistingWalkability-lowerMonroeCountyWALKABILITY LEVEL

Car-DependentRarely WalkableSometimes WalkableWalkableNot Applicable


B.8

DRAFTScenarioReport


B.9

Walkability Map Plan 2: Strategic Upgrades


B.10

DRAFTScenarioReport


Plan2:StrategicUpgradesWalkability



B.11

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

StrategicUpgradesWalkability-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties



B.12

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

StrategicUpgradesWalkability-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties



B.13

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

StrategicUpgradesWalkability-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties



B.14

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

StrategicUpgradesWalkability-upperMonroeCounty



B.15

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

StrategicUpgradesWalkability-lowerMonroeCountyWALKABILITY LEVEL



B.16

DRAFTScenarioReport


B.17

Walkability Map Plan 3: Region in Motion


B.18

DRAFTScenarioReport


Plan3:RegioninMotionWalkability



B.19

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

RegioninMotionWalkability-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties



B.20

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

RegioninMotionWalkability-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties



B.21

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

RegioninMotionWalkability-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties



B.22

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

Region in Motion Walkability - upper Monroe County



B.23

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

Region in Motion Walkability - lower Monroe CountyWALKABILITY LEVEL



B.24

DRAFTScenarioReport


B.25

Residential Units per Acre By TAZExisting Conditions


B.26

DRAFTScenarioReport

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:ExistingConditions


B.27

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Existing-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&Martin

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.28

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Existing-PalmBeach&NorthBroward

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.29

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Existing-SouthBroward&Miami-Dade

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.30

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Existing-upperMonroeCounty

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.31

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Existing-lowerMonroeCounty


B.32

DRAFTScenarioReport


B.33

Residential Units per Acre By TAZTrend: Staying the Course


B.34

DRAFTScenarioReport

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Trend:StayingtheCourse


B.35

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Trend-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&Martin

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.36

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Trend-PalmBeach&NorthBroward

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.37

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Trend-SouthBroward&Miami-Dade

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.38

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Trend-upperMonroeCounty

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.39

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Trend-lowerMonroeCounty


B.40

DRAFTScenarioReport


B.41

Residential Units per Acre By TAZPlan 1: Suburban Expansion


B.42

DRAFTScenarioReport

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Plan1:SuburbanExpansion


B.43

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Plan1-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&Martin

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.44

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Plan1-PalmBeach&NorthBroward

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.45

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Plan1-SouthBroward&Miami-Dade

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.46

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Plan1-upperMonroeCounty

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.47

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Plan1-lowerMonroeCounty


B.48

DRAFTScenarioReport


B.49

Residential Units per Acre By TAZPlan 2: Strategic Upgrades


B.50

DRAFTScenarioReport

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Plan2:StrategicUpgrades


B.51

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County


LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.52

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County


LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.53

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County


LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.54

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County


LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.55

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7



B.56

DRAFTScenarioReport


B.57

Residential Units per Acre By TAZPlan 3: Region in Motion


B.58

DRAFTScenarioReport

ResidentialUnitsperAcrebyTAZ:Plan3:RegioninMotion

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.59

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County


LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.60

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County


LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.61

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County


LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7


B.62

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7



B.63

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County

LEGEND0 - 3

101+41 - 10016 - 408 - 154 - 7



B.64

DRAFTScenarioReport


B.65

Areas Vulnerable to 2’ Sea Level Rise in 2060


B.66

DRAFTScenarioReport

LEGENDAreas Vulnerable to 2’ Sea Level Rise

Areas Vulnerable to 2’ Sea Level Rise(Tidally Adjusted)

AreasVulnerableto2’SeaLevelRisein2060


B.67

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Indian River County

St. Lucie County

Martin County

Palm Beach County

AreasVulnerableto2’SeaLevelRise-IndianRiver,St.Lucie&MartinCounties




B.68

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Palm Beach County

Broward County

AreasVulnerableto2’SeaLevelRise-PalmBeach&NorthBrowardCounties




B.69

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Miami-Dade County



AreasVulnerableto2’SeaLevelRise-SouthBroward&Miami-DadeCounties


B.70

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County



AreasVulnerableto2’SeaLevelRise-upperMonroeCounty


B.71

DRAFTScenarioReport

18,000’ 36,000’ 54,000’ 72,000’0

Monroe County



AreasVulnerableto2’SeaLevelRise-lowerMonroeCounty

scenario report july v2

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