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Scenario Planning Tools & Practice

Robert Goodspeed, PhD

Assistant Professor of Urban Planning

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Outline

Scenario Planning Introduction

Scenario Planning Tools & PracticeAustin Sustainable Places Project

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Scenario Planning Introduction

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Types of Planning

Visioning Forecasting Scenario Planning

• How realistic is the vision?- Can it be implemented

(externally and internally)?- If you build it, will it work as

you expect?

• Forecasts are very often wrong

• Lack a plan of action if surprises happen

• How to pick the “right” forces?

• How to engage multiple stakeholders?

Challenges

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Limits to Forecasting

Note: VMT estimation methodology varies between studies. Data Sources: SEMCOG, Suburbs Alliance.

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 205080

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Metro Detroit Average Daily VMT, Actual and Forecast

Estimated 2013Actual2040 LRP (2013)2035 LRP (2008)2030 LRP (2004) 2025 LRP2020 LRP2015 LRP

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Limits to Expertise

“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”

– Lord Kelvin

“With over fifty foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market for itself.”

– Business Week, 1968

“I think there is a world market for about five computers”

– Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman, 1943

The Experts Speak, quoted in Schoemaker 1991

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Scenario Planning

• Combines art (creativity) and science (rigorous analysis)

• Suited for contexts with high uncertainty and many non-quantifiable factors

• Possible benefits: (Huss 1988)

– Long range perspective– Learning and consensus– Identifies novel ideas– Encourages contingency planning

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Scenario Planning Overview

Identify Key Internal & External Driving Forces

Construct Multiple

Scenarios That Represent Potential

“Alternative Futures”

Analyze Scenarios

Select “Preferred” Scenario for Implementa

tion

Monitoring &

Adjustment

See Federal Highway Administration (2011)

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Scenario Planning Contexts & Scales

• Nations (e.g., South Africa see Kahane 2012)

• Companies (e.g., Royal Dutch Shell, many others see Phelps et al 2001)

• Military (e.g. RAND studies of nuclear war)

• U.S. Cities and Regions– 80 integrated land use-transportation scenario

planning projects (Bartholomew 2007)

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U.S. Land Use-transportation Scenario Planning Projects

Michigan Projects: SEMCOG, "Fiscal Impacts of Alternative Land Development Patterns in Michigan" (1996), Tri-County Regional Planning Commission (Lansing, MI), Regional Growth: Choices for Our Future/Regional 2025 Transportation Plan, 2003. Source: Bartholomew 2007.

Source: Bartholomew 2007

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Who are the stakeholders for land use-transportation scenarios?

• Municipalities• Metropolitan Planning

Organization• State Agencies• Anchor Institutions• Major Employers• Developers• Advocates• Others?

Why? Stakeholder input needed for a good plan, cooperation needed for implementation

Collaborative Planning(NOT consensus)

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Scenario Planning Tools & PracticeAustin Sustainable Places Project

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Austin

Fig. 4.9

Image: Tour Texas

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“Gateway to the hill country”

“BBQ Capital of Texas”

“Perfectly Situated”

“Growing a Quality Community”

See Fig. 4.11, 4.13, 4.14, 4.16

Austin

Planning Process and Time Line

1 2 3 4

Existing Conditions

and Visioning

Plan Development and Scenarios Draft Plan

Final Plan Documentation

Summer 2012 Fall 2012/ Winter 2013 Spring/ Summer 2013 Fall 2013

Vision Workshop October 11, 2012

Planning CharretteJanuary 31, 2013

Open HouseFebruary 28, 2013

Public Meetings

Present to City Council

City Council Review and Adoption

Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop: Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Lockhart Demonstration Site, January 31, 2013.

Constructing a Scenario

Austin Sustainable Places Project, Lockhart, TX 16Source: Goodspeed (2013)

Attendees:• Property

Owners• Elected Officials• Neighborhood

Organizations• Business

Owners• Etc

Development Type Chip Menu

Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop: Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Hutto Demonstration Site, November 8, 2012.

• Compact and walkable • Streetfront retail • Residential, office and service uses• Community gathering places • Mostly 2 - 3 floors• One chip = 1 acre • Jobs per chip = 32• Households per chip = 24

Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop: Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Hutto Demonstration Site, November 8, 2012.

Real-Time Scenario Planning Indicators

1. Developed Acres2. Rate of

Redevelopment/Infill3. Housing by Type4. Housing Mix5. Population6. Employment by Type7. Employment Mix8. Jobs-Housing Balance9. Housing Units per Net

Acre10. Jobs per Net Acre11. Property Tax Revenue12. Sales Tax Revenue13. Fiscal Impact

Charrette Scenario

Regional Growth Scenario

Trend Scenario -

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

297

996 1,621

96

334

481

15

72

-

30

153

2

171

606 48

-

- -

Housing by Type

Charette Scenario

Regional Growth Scenario

Trend Scenario$0

$200,000$400,000$600,000$800,000

$1,000,000$1,200,000$1,400,000$1,600,000$1,800,000$2,000,000

$702,015

$1,749,317

$454,414

Sales Tax Revenue

Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop: Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Hutto Demonstration Site, November 8, 2012.

From multiple Scenario maps…

Compilation Scenario A

Compilation Scenario BSource: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop: Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Lockhart Demonstration Site, January 31, 2013.

Distill Findings Into Strategic Choices

Scenarios Analyses

Preferred Plan & Implementation Program

Source: Austin Sustainable Places Project. Lockhart Community Design Workshop: Scenario Planning Charrette. Presented at Lockhart Demonstration Site, January 31, 2013.

Scenario Planning Tools

Envision Tomorrow

INDEX Urban Footprint PLACE3S

Where?Across the U.S. 30 states and 6

countriesCalifornia

MetrosMetro

Sacramento

IllustrativeIndicators

• Estimated Vehicle Miles Traveled / Greenhouse Gas Emissions• Impervious Surface• Housing Diversity / Affordability• Energy Use• Air Quality

For tool summary see Holway et al (2012)22

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Tools: Scale & Types of Scenarios

Image Source: Avin, Uri. "Best Scenarios for Apps Best Apps for Scenarios" Florida APA Conference, 11 September 2013.

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Conclusion

• Good plans:– smart (good data, analysis & recognize uncertainty)– lead to implementation (broad support)

• Scenario planning and planning support systems are set of methods and tools used to do this

• New tools mean you can do this in your community!

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Thank You!

Robert GoodspeedAssistant Professor of Urban Planning

University of Michiganrgoodspe@umich.eduTwitter: @rgoodspeed

Scenario Planning Tool Research: Goodspeed, Robert. Planning Support Systems for Spatial Planning Through Social Learning. PhD Dissertation. MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning. Available online at: http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/81739

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Works Cited

Bartholomew, K. 2007. Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality. Transportation 34 (4):397-412.

Federal Highway Administration. 2011. FHWA Scenario Planning Guidebook. Available online at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/scenario_and_visualization/scenario_planning/scenario_planning_guidebook/

Holway, Jim, C.J. Gabbe, Frank Hebbert, Jason Lally, Robert Matthews, and Ray Quay. 2012. Opening Access to Scenario Planning Tools. In Policy Focus Report. Cambridge, Mass.: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Huss, WR. 1988. A move toward scenario analysis. International Journal of Forecasting 4 (3):377-388.

Kahane, Adam. 2012. Transformative scenario planning : working together to change the future. 1st ed. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.

Phelps, R, C Chan, and SC Kapsalis. 2001. Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies. Journal of Business Research 51 (3):223-232.

Schoemaker, PJH. 1991. When and how to use scenario planning: a heuristic approach with illustration. Journal of forecasting 10 (6):549-564.