sandia 2014 wind turbine blade workshop- barr
DESCRIPTION
Sandia 2014 Wind Turbine Blade Workshop- BarrTRANSCRIPT
Analyst PRESENTATION
Blade technology trends and market developments
Aaron Barr
August 26, 2014
Contents
2 Post-PTC US Wind Energy Economics
August, 2014
� Market Dynamics – Global market to experience moderate growth, US faces uncertain future – Wind energy cost of electricity is growing increasingly competitive
� Blade technology trends – New products are trending towards lower windspeeds and longer blades – Longer blades face challenges in cost-effective scaling and transportation – Advanced materials are emerging with promise to displace carbon fiber
� Appendix: Promising blade technology innovations – Reinforcements & Resins – Processes & core materials – Aerodynamic concepts
Delivering renewable energy insight
25 August 2014 3
Global market dynamics
Global grid-connected forecast: 2013-2023 – Updated outlook published 08/20
Long-term market forecast by region Market Dynamics
Source: MAKE
Long-term sustained installations in China underpins global market forecast Significant rebound from 2013 slump is expected to persist for foreseeable future
4 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
80
60
40
20
0 ´23e
(GW)
+7.2%
´22e ´21e ´20e ´19e ´18e ´17e ´16e ´15e ´14e ´13
Asia Pacific (excl. China) China
Africa and Middle East Eastern Europe
Southern Europe Northern Europe
Latin America North America
United States market outlook, 2013-2023e (GW) – Updated outlook published 08/20
Long term United States demand remains volatile US Market Dynamics
Uncertainty on PTC “start of physical work” has pushed many projects into 2015 Early August PTC guidance puts 2H2014 and 2015 developments on fast track
5 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
Source: MAKE
1.33.3
4.7 5.53.9
5.1 5.55.0
8.5
4.6
1.10
6 5 4 3 2 1
9 8 7
+342.1%
‘19e ‘21e '20e ‘18e
(GW)
‘22e
-71.7%
‘23e ‘17e ‘16e '15e ‘14e ‘13
PTC void 2013 PTC 2014 PTC Major RES deadlines
Economic drivers replace PTC support
Toward 2025
US LCOE by technology, vs 2013 wholesale prices
Regional US LCOE dynamics Wind Energy � Latest generation of turbines have
LCOE competitive with natural gas � Driven by >40% capacity factors and
lower cost O&M practices Natural Gas � Historic low natural gas prices
expected to rise in near term � Favorable LCOE and balancing
flexibility driving adoption of gas. Coal � Emerging risk of emissions
regulations has largely halted new developments of coal plants
Nuclear � Latest generation of nuclear
technology is prohibitively expensive due to safety and fuel handling concerns
Wind energy increasingly cost competitive US Market Dynamics
Source: MAKE Note: Unsubsidized LCOE. Wholesale price represents 2013 average. Only considering newly constructed power plants – expansions not considered
Onshore wind in favorable wind conditions is currently competitive without subsidies. Future gas and coal fuel escalation risk reinforces the case for continued wind installs.
6 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
150
100
0
50 LCO
E $/
MW
h
45
105
ERCOT
NEPOOL
Nuclear
108
75
130
Coal Thermal
83
43
120
Nat Gas Comb. Cycle
60
40
105
Onshore Wind
67
INVEST FUEL O&M CARBON Range
Delivering renewable energy insight
25 August 2014 7
Blade market and technology trends
Product wind class installs, 2011-2016
New products increasingly targeted towards lower winds Blade market and technology trends
Source: MAKE IEC Certification of turbine, may not indicate resource
Longer rotors on turbines certified for low winds (IEC III) routinely being deployed into medium wind conditions – provides a double-dip for project economics
8 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
19%
2011
27%
51%
21%
IECIII (7.5m/s)
IECII (8.5m/s)
IECI (10m/s)
2016e
50%
37%
12%
2012
32%
49%
Specific ratings of new products
Source: MAKE Top 15 OEMs only
450
400
350
300
250
200 ‘12 ‘08 ‘04 2000
Spe
cific
Rat
ing
(W/m
2)
‘12 ‘08 ‘04 2000
- 21%
- 28%
Year of introduction
IEC II (8.5 m/s) IEC III (7.5 m/s)
Global blade length segmentation
50+ meter blades expected to become global mainstream
2016 outlook on blade segmentation
Blade market and technology trends
Source: MAKE Source: MAKE
Blades continue to grow in length, with the largest changes occurring in the Americas and Europe. <40m blades expected to only be deployed to the highest wind sites.
9 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
38%
15%
33%
28%
11%
43%
4%17%
7%1% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2016e
<40m 40-44.99m 45-49.99m 50-59.99m 60-69.99m >70m
1%
APAC
41%
31%
24% 3%
EMEA
13.9 7%
10%
12%
AMER
8.7 3% 7%
39%
51%
20%
42%
8%
26.3 2016 GW:
US Cost barriers for large rotor turbines
Rotor scaling faces cost challenges, met through technology
Blade market and technology trends
Source: MAKE
Cost effective rotor scaling can be very difficult, and requires clever adoption of low-cost technology to meet LCOE goals
10 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
Units Mainstream Next Gen 1.X Color
Turbine Rating (MW) 1.8 1.8 Rotor Diameter (meters) 100 124 Specific Rating (W/m2) 230 150
+16%
Capacity Factor (%)
53 46
9%
LCOE (USD/MWh)
60* 66
CAPEX/MW (USD $k/kW)
1.70
+6%
1.60
Added cost components Blades 12 meters longer ~5 tons per blade Tower 10-12 meters taller ~35 tons of steel Machine structure New gearbox / shaft / hub / bedplate Foundations Weight increase ~30% Roads & Electrical collection Turbine spacing increases 7-10 km
Trailer pinch in 2015 for 53m+ blades
Blade transport in the US becomes looming bottleneck
Rear overhang restrictions in US
Blade market and technology trends
Source: MAKE Source: MAKE, Logisticus Group
US logistics carriers hesitant to invest in new equipment, creating a trailer pinch in 2015 Longer blades drive the need for innovation on transport and blade segmentation
11 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
Enforcing rear overhang restrictions
Early indicators of restrictive policy
Major port for blade import
Domestic blade manufacturing Primary region of US development
-20%
Trailer availability,
2015e
10.3GW
0.9
Trailer availability,
2012e
12.9GW
Total available trailer equipment for wind
8.5GW
MAKE forecast 2015e
5.5
Order backlog for 2015
commissioning
<53m blades ���P�EODGHV
3.0
Available equipment and drivers are down
9.4 Trailer shortage capable of
hauling 53m+ blades
Carbon Fiber Penetration Has Grown
Carbon fiber blade material usage outlook
Long-term Trends May Reverse
Blade market and technology trends
Growth of turbine size has driven carbon adoption � New turbines with larger rotors utilize carbon fiber
as first option Stiffness of carbon fiber blades provides options � Carbon fiber allows OEMs to leverage existing
hardware in the rest of the turbine Cost pressures are forcing the hand of top OEMs � Profitability pressures are favoring high modulus
as a preferred alternative
Source: MAKE
Adoption trend has been positive, but emergence of high-modulus glass is voiding the business case for carbon fiber
12 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
0
20
5
15
25
10
2010
23
2012
Per
cent
Util
izat
ion
of C
arbo
n Fi
ber
2016
19
2013
17
12
2011
14
Delivering renewable energy insight
25 August 2014 13
Appendix: Promising blade technology innovations
Blade material commercial landscape
Commercial Maturity
Commercial status of blade materials – reinforcements & resins
Blade market and technology trends
Source: MAKE
E-glass and epoxy dominate the market due to cost position and track record, high modulus glass expected to gain share at the expense of high-priced carbon fiber
14 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
Material Features, benefits and drawbacks Maturity Trend
Rei
nfor
cem
ents
E-Glass • Ample capacity, low cost
H-Glass • Increased stiffness over E-glass
S-Glass • High performance with cost penalty
Carbon fiber • World-class stiffness, cost and material handling concerns
Res
ins
Epoxy • Excellent mechanical properties
Polyester • Lower cycle times and material costs
Vinyl esters • Good compromise on material properties, cost and cycle time
High Low
Future Trends
Increase Decrease
Blade structures commercial landscape
Commercial Maturity
Commercial status – processes and core materials Blade market and technology trends
Source: MAKE
Box spars and prepreg technology used by Vestas and Gamesa face lower utilization Pultrusion technology shows significant promise, but advancing slowly
15 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
Features, benefits and drawbacks Maturity Trend
Proc
ess
Structural shell • Flexible to advanced geometries, reliance upon bonding paste
Box spar • Potential for automation, high capital cost of equipment
Prepreg plys • Material handling and temperature concerns
Dry fiber layup • Quality and repeatability concerns, cost leadership
Pultrusions • Excellent quality control, material property limitations
Cor
e m
ater
ials
PVC • Dominant material, lower strength than balsa
Balsa • Low cost, material consistency concerns, high resin uptake
PET • Lower cost and improved material consistency over balsa
SAN • Lower weight and reduced resin update
Tycor • Reduced resin uptake, highly engineered reinforced core
High Low
Future Trends
Increase Decrease
Blade aerodynamics commercial landscape
Commercial Maturity
Commercial status – aerodynamic concepts Blade market and technology trends
Source: MAKE
Significant blade aerodynamic occurring in the aftermarket as performance upgrades.
16 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014
Features, benefits and drawbacks Maturity Trend
Aero
dyna
mic
feat
ures
Trailing edge features Reduced noise, higher efficiency
Vortex Generators Improved efficiency, aftermarket upgrade option
Winglets Higher aerodynamic efficiency, reduced tip noise
Swept blade Load shedding bend-twist coupling, complex manufacture
Flatback airfoils Lower blade weight, increased root lift and efficiency
Slender airfoils Improved efficiency, increased demand on material strength
Gurney flaps Passive flap on trailing edge, low cost, bonding concerns
Leading edge slats Increased lift, higher manufacturing costs
Trailing edge flaps Active control of trailing edge, complicated manufacturing
Jet actuators Increased lift, high energy use, reliability concerns
High Low
Future Trends
Increase Decrease
Contact
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Aaron Barr
17 Blade technology trends and market developments
August, 2014