safety recommendation a-95-51 “revise 14 cfr part 91, 135, and 121 to require that all occupants...

“... a program to increase the public’s awareness of, and support for, action to adopt safety steps that can help prevent accidents and save lives.”

Safety Recommendation A-95-51Safety Recommendation A-95-51

“Revise 14 CFR Part 91, 135, and 121 to require that all occupants be restrained during takeoff, landing, and turbulent conditions, and that all infants and small children be restrained in a manner appropriate to their size.”


NTSB Recommendation HistoryNTSB Recommendation History

• Safety Recommendations A-79-63 and A-83-1 • Permit use of CRS on aircraft.

• Safety Recommendation A-90-78 • Require use of CRS on aircraft. Research conducted on

the performance of CRS on aircraft.

• Safety Recommendation A-90-79• Determine if seat belts adequate for small children.

• Safety Rec A-95-51 (closed Safety Rec A-90-78) • Again asked FAA to require use of CRS on aircraft.


Safety Recommendation A-95-51Safety Recommendation A-95-51Classification historyClassification history

• May 1995 – recommendation issued• FAA proposed education campaign

› Raised diversion to auto concerns

• October 1995 – “Open–Unacceptable Response”› NTSB said analysis drew the wrong conclusions


Safety Recommendation A-95-51Safety Recommendation A-95-51Classification historyClassification history

• February 1998 – FAA issued ANPRM • NTSB classification

› November 1998 – “Open–Acceptable Response” › June 1999 – “Open–Acceptable Response” › July 2000 – “Open–Acceptable Response” › April 2001 – “Open–Acceptable Response”


Most Wanted ListMost Wanted List

• November 2003 › Staff proposed to classify it “Closed–Unacceptable

Action” › Staff proposed to remove it from the Most Wanted List

• Board briefings• New staff recommendation


Staff recommendationStaff recommendation

• “Open—Unacceptable Response”› Education alone has not worked in the past› Education campaign does not reach all

• Remove from the Most Wanted List


The Safety Consequences of The Safety Consequences of Historic Examples of Diversion Historic Examples of Diversion From Air to Road TravelFrom Air to Road Travel


MethodMethod

• Annual domestic airline passenger enplanements were compared with annual road vehicle miles traveled and accident fatalities for 1980 through 2002.

• Highway fatality data was filtered to passenger car and light truck occupants.


Passenger Car and Light Truck Vehicle Miles Traveled and Aircraft Passenger Enplanements, 1980-2002

250,000,000

350,000,000

450,000,000

550,000,000

650,000,000

750,000,0001

98

01

98

11

98

21

98

3

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

En

pla

nem

ents

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

Hig

hw

ay M

iles

(mill

ion

s)

Domestic Passenger Enplanements

Passenger Car and Light Truck Miles Traveled


Enplanements vs. Road MilesEnplanements vs. Road Miles

• Steady increase in vehicle miles traveled annually between 1980 and 2002.

• Passenger enplanements have increased overall, but saw annual declines in 1981, 1991, and 2001-2002.


Year-over-year Changes in Passenger Enplanements and Passenger Car and Light Truck Miles Traveled, 1981-2002

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

% Change in Passenger Enplanements

% Change in Passenger Car and Light Truck Miles Traveled

Air Traffic Controller Strike Gulf War

Sept. 11, 2001


Passenger Car and Light Truck Fatalities and Aircraft Passenger Enplanements, 1980-2002

250,000,000

350,000,000

450,000,000

550,000,000

650,000,000

750,000,0001

98

0

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

En

pla

nem

ents

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Fat

alit

ies

Domestic Passenger Enplanements

Passenger Car and Light Truck Occupant Fatalities


Enplanements vs. Road FatalitiesEnplanements vs. Road Fatalities

• During the 1981 drop in air travel there was a 3.5% decrease in road fatalities.

• During 1991 there was a 5.9% decrease in road fatalities and 2.9% decrease in injuries.

• A decrease in road fatalities during 2001 followed by an increase during 2002 resulted in slightly greater than 1% increase overall in occupant fatalities between 2000 and 2002.

• Injuries decreased 8.7% between 2000 and 2002.


September 11, 2001 Diversion in September 11, 2001 Diversion in ContextContext• Decrease of 56.4 million domestic passengers, or 8.3%

from 2000 to 2002.• Road vehicle miles increased by 4%, or approximately

100 billion miles from 2000 to 2002.• Included all segments of the population.• Increase includes all vehicles under all road and travel

conditions, and is not specific to the population of interest.› i.e., driver age, alcohol use, time of travel, restraint use


Motor Vehicle Occupants Under 5 Years of Age Killed in Crashes, 2000-2002

539513

472

350317

291

179 180 168

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2001 2002

Total All Types Passenger Cars Light Trucks· Totals include crashes involving passenger cars, light trucks, large trucks, motorcycles, buses, and other/unknow n vehicle types.· Data available from the National Highw ay Traff ic Safety Administration at

http://w w w -nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/TSFAnn/TSF2002Final.pdf


Motor Vehicle Occupants Under 5 Years of Age Injured in Crashes, 2000-2002

59,00060,000

67,000

21,00021,00022,000

29,000

39,000

45,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2000 2001 2002Total All Types Passenger Cars Light Trucks

· Totals include crashes involving passenger cars, light trucks, large trucks, motorcycles, buses, and other/unknow n vehicle types.· Data available from the National Highw ay Traff ic Safety Administration at http://w w w -nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/TSFAnn/TSF2002Final.pdf


U.S. Census Bureau Annual Estimates of Resident Population Under 5 Years of Age

19,212,31219,363,867

19,575,536

18,000,000

18,500,000

19,000,000

19,500,000

20,000,000

20,500,000

21,000,000

2000 2001 2002

Full data set available at http://eire.census.gov/popest/data/national/tables/NC-EST2003-01.xls


Children Under 5 Years OldChildren Under 5 Years Old

• Road fatalities to all vehicle occupants under 5 years old decreased 12.4% between 2000 and 2002.

• Injuries decreased 11.9% between 2000 and 2002.

• Estimated resident population of children under 5 years old increased 1.9% between 2000 and 2002.


SummarySummary

• Even in extreme cases, the historic relationship between diversion from air travel and increased risk of fatality or injury in highway accidents is not clearly apparent.

• Accident risk is not evenly distributed among all drivers, vehicle types, and trip conditions.

• No evidence was found to suggest an increased risk for children under 5 years old.


Safety Safety Recommendation A-Recommendation A-

95-5195-51Required use of child Required use of child restraints on aircraftrestraints on aircraft

safety recommendation a-95-51 “revise 14 cfr part 91, 135, and 121 to require that all occupants...

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