S. HRG. 107-50

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:FEBRUARY 2001

HEARING

before the

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

ONE HUNDRED SEVENTH CONGRESS

FIRST SESSION

March 9, 2001

Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee

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JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress]

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESJIM SAXTON, New Jersey, ChairmanPAUL RYAN WisconsinLAMAR SMITH, FloridaJENNIFER DUNN, WashingtonPHIL ENGLISH, PennsylvaniaADAM H. PUTNAM, FloridaPETE STARK, CaliforniaCAROLYN B. MALONEY, New YorkMELVIN L. WATT, North Carolina

SENATEROBERT F. BENNETT, UTAH, Vice ChairmanSAM BROWNBACK, KansasJEFF SESSIONS, AlabamaMIKE CRAPO, IdahoLINCOLN CHAFEE, Rhode IslandJACK REED, Rhode IslandEDWARD M. KENNEDY, MassachusettsPAUL S. SARBANES, MarylandJEFF BINGAMAN, New MexicoJON CORZINE, New Jersey

CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive DirectorROBERT KELEHER, ChiefMacroeconomist

PATRICIA RUGGLES, Minority Staff Director

CONTENTS

OPENING STATEMENT OF MEMBER

Representative Jim Saxton, Chairman ....................... 1

WITNESSES

Statement of Katharine G. Abraham, Commissioner, Bureau of LaborStatistics: Accompanied by Kenneth V. Dalton, AssociateCommissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and Philip L.Rones, Assistant Commissioner of Current EmploymentAnalysis.............................. .......... 3

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

Prepared Statement of Representative Jim Saxton, Chairman ..... .16Prepared Statement of Senator Jack Reed, Ranking Minority .

Member ........................................ 17Prepared Statement of Senator Jon Corzine ................... 19Prepared Statement of Commissioner Katharine G. Abraham, together

with Press Release No. 01-57, entitled, "The Employment Situation:February 2001," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor,March 2001; selected charts, and "Unemployment Rates by Countyin New Jersey," ...................................... 20

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:FEBRUARY 2001Friday, March 9, 2001

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES,JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE,

WASHINGTON, D.C.

The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:33 a.m., in Room 1334,Longworth House Office Building, the Honorable Jim Saxton, Chairmanof the Committee, presiding.

Present: Representatives Saxton and English. Senator Corzine.Staff Present: Chris Frenze, Bob Keleher, Darryl Evans, Colleen

J. Healy, Daphne Clones-Federing, Corine Bradshaw, Amber Williamsand Russell Comeau.

OPENING STATEMENT OFREPRESENTATIVE JIM SAXTON, CHAIRMAN

Representative Saxton. Good morning. It is a pleasure to welcomeCommissioner Abraham before the Committee once again to report onthe release of new employment and unemployment data for February.

Recent current economic conditions indicate that the economy hasslowed from the remarkable pace present through the middle of last year.The array of economic data shows that the economy has been in aslowdown for the last two quarters. For example, the rate of GDP growthhas fallen two quarters in a row. The consumer spending and investmentgrowth have also slipped. However, there are some signs of a residualeconomic strength in certain sectors, such as construction and the service-producing industries. In addition, overall employment growth has slowedbut has generally been positive.

The employment-population ratio remains high, and labor marketconditions for the most part remain fairly tight as reflected by therelatively low unemployment rate. The slowdown does make theeconomy more vulnerable to shocks and disruptions, but the economyremains in positive territory.

The Federal Reserve is aware of the softness of the economy, and itsrecent survey indicates that that is a continuing problem.

The employment data released today seemed to be influenced by theslowing pace of the economy. Payroll job growth for February was135,000, considerably lower than the 225 to 250,000 range typical duringthe healthy economic expansion. The unemployment rate remainedunchanged at 4.2 percent. Given the weakening of the economy since themiddle of last year, the case for change in economic policy is quitestrong.

The tightness of Federal Reserve monetary policy should be relaxed,and the Fed has taken steps in this direction earlier this year, although

more remains to be done. Further rate cuts by the Fed are needed. As amatter of fact, for quite some time I have been questioning Fed policy.As far back as November, 1999, I began to question Fed tightening policyand did so again in March of 2000 and finally again earlier this year.

Congress can also do its part by reducing the fiscal drag on theeconomy from the excessive tax burden imposed on our tax system. TheHouse took a step in that direction yesterday, and the Senate will work itswill later as time goes by. The tax system is counterproductive, and nowis a good time to reduce its negative effects. This will not make theeconomy turn on a dime, but it will improve the prospects for continualeconomic growth now and in the future. The current economic outlookposes challenges that should not be taken lightly. Changes inmacroeconomic policy are needed to get the economy back on track.

Commissioner Abraham, let me again welcome you to today'shearing. We are certainly anxious to hear your report in the veryarticulate way that you have been accustomed to delivering it to us.Before I do that, I would like to welcome my colleague from New Jerseyfor the first time, Senator Jon Corzine, who is no stranger, to say theleast, to the world of economics and economic growth and investment,having been extremely successful in his real life adventure; and now heis here with us in Congress. As he just walked into the room for his firsttime, I don't know whether he may have an opening statement, but wecertainly want you to feel welcome here and to make an openingstatement if you would like to.[The prepared statement of Representative Saxton appears in theSubmissions for the Record on page.16.]

Senator Corzine. Mr. Chairman, thank you for the welcome. I havea formal statement I will submit for the record, but it is a great pleasureto be here with you and working on issues that I think will make adifference with regard to our economic picture in the long run.

I am anxious to hear about unemployment statistics, which I used towatch very closely on a day-to-day and a second-to-second minute; andI think we all have grave concerns about the state of the economy. So Ivery much look forward to this morning's discussion.

But mostly, I want to say thank you for your welcoming remarks andI look forward to working very closely with you over the years.[The prepared statement of Senator Corzine appears in the Submissionsfor the Record on page 19.]

Representative Saxton. I thank my colleague. CommissionerAbraham, you may begin. The floor is yours.

OPENING STATEMENT OF KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM,COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS:

ACCOMPANIED BY KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATECOMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS;

AND PHILIP L. RONES, ASSISTANT COMMISSIONER OFCURRENT EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS

Ms. Abraham. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. It is a pleasure to beseeing you again in this new year; and, good morning, Senator Corzine.

As always, we are happy to have the opportunity to comment on thelabor market data that we released. The unemployment rate, as younoticed, was unchanged in February at 4.2 percent, and payrollemployment rose by 135,000. Since early last fall, the growth in payrollemployment has slackened. In the five months since September, theaverage monthly increase in. payroll employment has been 103,000. Incontrast, during the first nine months of last year, payroll employmenthad grown by 187,000 a month, on average.

You should have in front of you a small package with some charts.The first chart relates to what has been happening with payroll

employment. The data shown there are only for the private sector, for thereason that the buildup and drawdown in Federal employment related tothe census otherwise would have distorted the figures. I think you cansee looking at those data the slowdown in the rate of growth of payrollemployment in recent months.[The chart package appears in the Submissions for the Record on page45.]

Focusing on what happened in February, the key features of theFebruary data in my view are, first, the continued reduction inmanufacturing employment and hours; second, the more than offsettingjob gains in services and some other industries; and, thirdly, the over-the-month rise in average hourly earnings.

Let me talk first about manufacturing employment. Manufacturingemployment fell by 94,000 in February following a decline of about thesame magnitude in January. Those declines bring total factory job lossessince last June to 371,000.

The second chart in the small package that I gave you shows what hasbeen happening to manufacturing employment. There has been a periodof time you will recall back in the spring of 1998 when, around the Asianeconomic crisis, we started to see declines in manufacturing employment;and then for a period of time things seemed to have leveled out. Sincelast summer, however, we have again been seeing rather substantialdeclines in manufacturing employment. I think the thing that isnoteworthy about what we are seeing in February is how widespreadthose declines in manufacturing employment are. That is shown in thenext little chart. Even the electronic components industry has a small jobloss over the month. That was an industry within manufacturing that hadbeen on an upward trend for a couple years. The only manufacturingindustry with a sizable over-the-month increase was motor vehicles, but

that gain of 13,000 was just a fraction of the loss that had occurred inJanuary. So even that has to be put in some context. On net, autoindustry employment has fallen by nearly 80,000 since June.

Manufacturing hours and overtime hours also continued on theirdownward trend in February. That is shown in the fourth chart in thispackage. Since June, the average factory workweek has declined by afull hour, and overtime has fallen by 8/10ths of an hour. The factoryworkweek is now at its lowest level since the spring of 1991, outside oftwo months when winter storms caused sharp temporary reductions inhours back in December; and then in January of 1996 you can see sharpdeclines related to weather. Weakness in manufacturing may haveaffected some other industries. For example, wholesale trade, whichserves as an intermediary between manufacturers and customers, has lost22,000 jobs since November. This is the largest such decline in thatindustry since early 1993.

Employment in help supply services, which is mainly temporary helpfirms that provide workers to manufacturing as well as to other industries,was little changed in February but has fallen by 200,000 since April of2000. Help supply had been a big job gainer during mot of theeconomic expansion that began in the spring of 1991. So these recentlosses do represent a real change.

Employment in the services industry as a whole rose by 95,000 inFebruary. Health services had the largestjob increase among the servicesindustries, as employment in hospitals continued to benefit from recentexchanges in Medicare payment schedules. Employment also rose insocial services, computer services, and private education. Publiceducation accounted for a large share of the rise in governmentjobs overthe month.

Maybe I could digress forjust a moment from my prepared statementat this point. I commented at the beginning of my remarks about theslowdown in overall employment growth that we have seen over the lastfive months or so. Manufacturing has been hard hit. We have seen a realturnaround in help supply. If you look at the rest of the economy, youdon't see any evidence of that slowdown. The slowdown in employmentgrowth has really been very concentrated in just a couple of areas. In theservices sector in particular, things have held up pretty well; and in anumber of services industries we have actually seen somewhat fastergrowth over the last five months than previously.

Following a very large gain in January, construction employmentadded 16,000 jobs in February. That is another industry where we havenot seen any slowdown. Since October, employment in construction hasbeen increased by 37,000 a month on average. In the 12 months prior toOctober, the average monthly increase had been only 23,000.

From our survey of employers, average hourly earnings were upseven cents in February. The over-the-year increase was 4.1 percent.This was the fourth month in a row that the over-the-year increase inaverage hourly earnings was 4 percent or higher. Throughout most of

1999 and 2000 those over-the-year gains had remained in the 3.5 to 3.8percent range.

As I mentioned at the beginning of my statement, the unemploymentrate was unchanged in February at 4.2 percent. There is a chart thatshows the average hourly earnings figures. The unemployment rate wasunchanged in February at 4.2 percent. In February, the number of newlyunemployed, those unemployed less than 5 weeks, and also the numberof unemployed job losers who were not on temporary layoff, both rosefor the second month in a row.

Other cyclical indicators from our survey of households, such as thenumber of people working part-time for economic reasons, that is,working part time despite the preference for full-time work, and also thenumber of people outside the labor force who have stopped looking forwork, have shown no clear signs of an upward trend.

In summary, the sharp downturn in manufacturing employment andhours continued in February. Still, overall payroll employment continuedto rise, and the unemployment rate remained relatively low. Finally,earnings gains appear to have picked up in recent months.

So that is the basic picture as we see it, looking at these data. Wewould, of course, be happy to answer any questions that you might have.[The prepared statement of Commissioner Abraham and theaccompanying Press Release No. 01-57 appear in the Submissions for theRecord on page 20.]

Representative Saxton. Commissioner, thank you. It would appearthat the initial reaction among the members of the economic communitywas somewhat of a surprise earlier this morning when these employmentnumbers were released. There was an expectation that, among those whowere awaiting these numbers, that they would be somewhat weaker thanthey were. Do you have any explanation for, while these are not strongnumbers, they are stronger than the expectations would have indicated?Do you have any explanation that we might consider as to why thishappened?

Ms. Abraham. I am almost thinking this might be a better questionto address to your colleague. You are quite correct that the expectationswere for somewhat lower payroll employment growth than we in factreported, though the expectations for unemployment were about in linewith what we reported.

It may be that people were expecting construction to be weaker thismonth than it actually turned out to be. In January, we had an enormousincrease in construction employment. Part of that was probably ananomaly related to very bad weather in November and December, sopeople having been let go earlier in the year than they usually are and notgetting layoffs in January that we would have expected. But it wasstronger than you could have explained just on that basis.

And people may have expected, as often occurs, that, given that verystrong January number, that we would see declines in February. Wedidn't get that. Construction employment actually rose.

I don't know, with respect to other things, exactly where thediscrepancy may have come.

Representative Saxton. Commissioner, you indicated that theweakness in job growth was particularly evident in manufacturing.

Ms. Abraham. Correct.Representative Saxton. Matter of fact, what was the number,

94,000 job loss in February and about the same in January?Ms. Abraham. Correct.Representative Saxton. This tracks in terms of manufacturing jobs

with a long-term trend, does it not?Ms. Abraham. Well, the long-term trend in manufacturing for many

years has been downward. The declines in recent months have reallyaccelerated. I think they are sharper than you can explain just on thebasis of a long-run trend.

Representative Saxton. When I say many years, actually thedeclines in manufacturing began in the 1997-1998 time-frame, did theynot?

Ms. Abraham. There were declines through the early '90s and thensome pickup and then some declines, interrupted by increases and thenfurther declines.

If you take a much longer time perspective, the tendency clearly hasbeen towards declines in manufacturing. It is really not just the last fewyears.

Phil has got numbers here that go back further. If you go back to themid '70s, for example, when our overall economy was much smaller,manufacturing employment for the late '70s was in excess of 20 million.And despite growth in the economy since then, manufacturing has fallento 18.5 million, that kind of range.

Representative Saxton. I only have limited data before me - I cansee where we are at 18.9, 18.8, 18.9 in 1998.

Ms. Abraham. Right. I mean, we have come down about threequarters of a million since then. That is true.

Representative Saxton. So there has been a trend downward overthe long-term, and there has been a specific trend down over the shorter-term since 1998, and it became an especially steep decline beginningabout January 2000, is that-

Ms. Abraham. I might date it in the summer, rather than in January,but, yes, declines have accelerated.

Representative Saxton. And, at the same time, the civilianunemployment rate during those years - in spite of the fact thatmanufacturing employment has declined - the unemployment rate hasdeclined along with it, meaning that other sectors of the economy havepicked up jobs.

Ms. Abraham. Right. That is right.

Representative Saxton. But then we see, in terms of theunemployment rate, beginning in the second quarter of 2000unemployment started to increase again, did it not?

Ms. Abraham. Well, I guess I would characterize the un-employment rate slightly differently. I would say that for a long periodof time, I think it was 15 months, the unemployment rate hovered in avery narrow range. From October of 1999 through December of 2000,it never got outside of the range from 3.9 to 4.1 percent. So I wouldcharacterize it as having been quite stable at a very low level over thatperiod. It has been a little higher over the last two months.

Representative Saxton. 4.2 percent.Ms. Abraham. Right.Representative Saxton. Okay. So there is obvious reason for

concern about the loss of manufacturing jobs, and there is reason for usto examine why the unemployment rate has continued to go down.Obviously, that is because of increases in job growth in other sectors.But now we see that while we continue to lose jobs in the manufacturingsector, job growth in the other sectors is not as robust, and that startedduring the last half of 2000, is that right?

Ms. Abraham. Let me try to state what my sense of this is: we haveseen slowdowns in overall payroll employment growth, but those havebeen very concentrated. They have been concentrated in the last fewmonths, as compared to earlier in 2000. They have been concentrated inmanufacturing and in temporary help. Employment in the rest of theeconomy really has not slowed at least over that time frame. Theserecent declines have been quite concentrated. The recent slowdown hasbeen quite concentrated.

Representative Saxton. When you say recent slowdown, you aretalking about the last half of 2000?

Ms. Abraham. Yes.Representative Saxton. There have also been widespread reports

of layoffs in the private sector, but they are hard to evaluate in the contextbecause some job growth has been going on, as we have been saying.What do your figures show about the layoff situation and its impact onemployment and unemployment?

Ms. Abraham. Let me just describe the information that we have onlayoffs. We have information on mass layoffs that show up throughpeople registering for unemployment insurance. If there is a companythat lays people off and 50 or more of their people register forunemployment insurance, we pick that up and are able to track that.

At the end of last year, November, December, we saw a substantialpickup in the volume of layoff activity. January's number wasn't out ofline with what we had seen a year earlier. I guess it remains to be seenwhat the numbers for February, March and so on are going to show.

The November and December numbers certainly do show a higherincident of layoff activity than we had seen in this data series before.These data only go back five years, six years, so we don't have a long

time series. But the numbers for the end of 2000 were certainly quitehigh by historical standards, standards of the recent past.

Representative Saxton. Let me just go to general impression. Iknow that some of the information I have here is not data that youdeveloped. It is obviously very closely related. Slowdown inemployment growth over the last seven or eight months tracks with theslowdown in GDP as well, is that correct?

Ms. Abraham. Generally speaking, I think all of that economic datathat we have seen recently are telling a fairly consistent story.

Representative Saxton. And the slowdown started-Ms. Abraham. At the end of last year.Representative Saxton. Third quarter of last year.Ms. Abraham. Unfortunately; I don't have the GDP figures in front

of me. I take your word for it on that one.Representative Saxton. The GDP growth in the second quarter of

last year was 5.6 percent. According to the figures 1 have in front of me,the third quarter was 2.2 percent; and in the fourth quarter it was 1.1percent. That sounds about right.

Ms. Abraham. That sounds like a slowdown.Representative Saxton. And personal consumption follows the

same downward trend, or appears to. In the third quarter of '99, it wasvery robust; and during 2000 consumption began to decrease fairlyrapidly. And that iracks with the figures that you are. seeing, I assume.

And retail sales, the same thing occurred in January of 2000.Actually, in May of 1999 consumption started to fall. Retail sales startedto fall and have continued to fall.

I am not sure whether you have evaluated those numbers or not, butis it your general agreement that that has occurred?

Ms. Abraham. General agreement that the picture seems to bepretty consistent.

Representative Saxton. I am not going to go through all thesefigures, but my staff has provided measure after measure that shows thedecline in the economy started six months ago, according to some figures,a year ago according to other measures. Would you generally agree withthat, that is the case?

Ms. Abraham. The figures that we focus on, of course, are theemployment figures. Employment growth in 2000 was belowemployment growth in '99, but sort of within that, as we look at thosedata, the last several months, five months, is where the slowdown hasbeen particularly pronounced.

Representative Saxton. It is consistent with the slowdown, correct?Ms. Abraham. [Witness nodded.]Representative Saxton. Thank you very much.Senator Corzine, do you have any questions at this point?

Senator Corzine. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Commissioner Abraham, I guess my question would be,

acknowledging the pattern of other economic measurements that theChairman cited, have you done any work on the historical perspective ofhow we enter into a recession and what - if we were, in previous periods,how long the lag is and what kinds of early warning signals within thedetail of the employment statistics would red flag that? Are there anysigns along those lines? The temporary hiring patterns, corporations haveoften been cited as one of those places where you might look first.

Ms. Abraham. That is not something that we devote resources to.That really gets away from the production of the data into the analysis ofthe data.

I know there are things that people do look at. Some people, as Ithink we were suggesting, look at employment in help supply, mainly thetemporary help firms. Some people look at the number of peopleunemployed for fewer than five years, the newly unemployed, as kind ofan indicatcr. Sometimes people look at the other labor market indicatorslike people working part-time when they would rather have a full-timejob or people giving up on job search. But, no, we have not attempted toanalyze past cycles and pull out of the data what we should be looking atto diagnose what is happening now.

Senator Corzine. With regard to your cormments on electroniccomponents, does that tie to some of the slowdown that we have seen inthe dot-com phenomenon and slowdown or is that really a differentpicture into the economy?

Ms. Abraham. What the electronic co#mponents really are aresemiconductors, communications equipment, that sort of thing. So it maybe related, I suppose, to what is going on with some of these dot coms.To the extent that the dot-coms are in retail activity, they would becategorized elsewhere.

Senator Corzine. Then, finally, I would ask a question about yourcomment that health services held strong in this period and tied to recentchanges in Medicare payment schedules. I don't know whether you wantto comment on whether you think this is a temporary phenomenon or onethat you believe might be sustainable in employment growth.

Ms. Abraham. It is very clear in the data that we have seen a pickupin employment growth in health services over the period beginning inabout October. For the five months October, November, December,January, February, health services as a whole was growing by about22,000 a month, compared with just 14,000 over the earlier part of 2000.Health services is an area where our long-term employment projectionssuggest we can expect continued robust employment growth, justreflecting the demographics of the society, if nothing else. So healthservices is an area where I would expect strong employment growth overthe long term to continue.

How much of any pickup we have gotten as a result of theseMedicare changes might be persistent versus temporary, I don't reallyknow.

Senator Corzine. Mr. Chairman, I think that is good for me. Thankyou very much.

Representative Saxton. Thank you very much, Senator. Very goodquestions.

I would like to introduce to you, Commissioner Abraham,Congressman Phil English, who is at this hearing for the first time andappeared yesterday at a JEC hearing for the first time. Phil has been withus since 1994 in Congress. He is a member of the Ways and MeansCommittee, and we lobbied hard to get him on this Committee becauseof his interest in economics.

Phil, welcome, and the floor is yours.Representative English. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Commissioner Abraham, it is a privilege to take your testimony.I was wondering if I could get to you elaborate further on some of the

trends you see in the manufacturing sector, manufacturing beingobviously a critical sector but being a category that is so broad that italmost conceals more than it reveals. I am wondering if you could giveus a sense, for example, of what the job patterns have been within thesteel industry within the last month.

Ms. Abraham. Maybe I could put some of this in a bit of a longer-term perspective as well.

Representative English. Certainly.Ms. Abraham. There are a number of parts of manufacturing that

have really been on a long-term, secularly declining employment path.The two that jump to mind are apparel and also other textile products,which have just over long periods of time been shedding jobs at a fairlyrapid pace.

You asked specifically about what has been happening in steel. Steelis the biggest part of what we call primary metals. Over the month,primary metals fell by 5,000. It fell by 6,000 in the month before that.It was down by a couple thousand a month over the prior 12 months. Sothe last couple months have been substantially worse than the average forthe recent past.

Parts of manufacturing had actually been doing fairly well up throughthe middle of 1998. Manufacturing as a whole had been doing wellthrough the middle of 1998. We had seen employment growth in aircraft,we had seen employment growth in industrial machinery, electroniccomponents had been doing well. Then manufacturing got hit by theAsian economic crisis, and in a lot of those industries you started seeingemployment declines.

Things had leveled off in many of them for a period of time, but allof these industries have been experiencing employment declines in recentmonths.

Representative English. Do you have the data broken out to helpus identify some other sectors? What I am trolling for here is there arecertain sectors that are obviously import sensitive. There are others thatare very sensitive to changes in export conditions. And I wonder, forexample, do you have a break-out for machine tooling or do you go downto that far in - do you identify sectors that narrowly?

Ms. Abraham. In the data that we put out for the current month, wedon't have data that go down to that level of detail. When we put out datalater on, we do have data that are more detailed and would include thingslike that.

Representative English. What was the trend-Ms. Abraham. We do have a data series that we put together -

maybe we could ask Phil Rones to talk about this - that is designed totrack employment in industries that are export sensitive. We don't havea corresponding one for industries that are import sensitive. But maybeyou could-

Representative English. Mr..Rones, would you comment?Mr. Rones. We have several series that track industry employment

related to defense, exports, construction. So we try to look beyond justthe specific employment growth in those industries. in what we call theexport sensitive industries, overall the over-the-month change was minus24,000. So we lost 24,000 jobs in what we call the export sensitiveindustries. And what we are looking at there are industries that have atleast 20 percent of their gross revenues in exports. Over the year, wehave lost 66,000 jobs in those industries.

Representative English. May I ask, under the category of fabricatedmetal products of which we have a significant component in WesternPennsylvania, I see there is a significant projected fall-off for this month.I realize month-to-month it is very difficult to predict what is going on,but there has been, since November and December, looks from thesestatistics seasonally adjusted to be a fairly significant drop. Can youcomment on that?

Ms. Abraham. We need to verify that, in fact, that is what we areseeing. It was both this month and last month that industry lost 13,000jobs, and it lost jobs as well in December. Up through November it hadactually been holding its own and even adding a bit. So it is really thelast several months where we have seen declines, in the last two monthsrather sharp declines have occurred in employment in that industry.

Representative English. And under industrial machinery andequipment I see there is also a significant drop-off just over the lastcouple of months seasonally-adjusted.

Ms. Abraham. Correct. We had seen some declines earlier forindustrial machinery, but it was down and up, down and up. Lastthree months have all been declines, with a rather sharp decline thismonth.

Representative English. Thank you. That is extremely helpful; and,Mr. Chairman, I appreciate the opportunity to participate.

Representative Saxton. Thank you very much, Mr. English.Commissioner Abraham, if I may just ask you about New Jersey for

a minute, the New Jersey economic situation. And understanding thatthese figures are from January, what do the recent trends in employmentand unemployment suggest about the State's economy and in whatindustries does employment growth seem strongest and in New Jerseywhich sectors seem to be the weakest?

Ms. Abraham. Let's see, Phil Rones I know has brought a packagewith some information for the State of New Jersey. I have also got here,if I could pull this out, some information on the employment.[The chart package concerning the state of New Jersey appears in theSubmissions for the Record on page 51.]

Maybe you could comment on the unemployment picture, Phil; andI will comment on the employment.

Mr. Rones. What we prepared for you is a map that hasunemployment rates in New Jersey by county, and we will give this toyou. What we see here is that the New Jersey unemployment rate is 3.8percent, and that was an average for the year 2000 which is just slightlybelow the unemployment rate for the Nation as a whole, which averaged4 percent.

One thing you will see from this, there is a very dramatic range inunemployment. There are parts of New Jersey where the unemploymentrate is between I and 2 percent and has been for a sustained period oftime, and there are counties in southern New Jersey where theunemployment rate is higher than 10 percent. So there is a substantialspread in the economic conditions in different parts of New Jersey.

Ms. Abraham. You also asked about what was happening withemployment in New Jersey. Employment in the State of New Jersey wasup by 1.7 percent over the year ending in January of 2001. In terms ofthe pattern of that employment growth, it looks not unlike that of theNation as a whole. Construction employment growth has been verystrong in New Jersey over the year, up 3.8 percent. Manufacturingemployment was down over the year by 1.7 percent. We saw stronggrowth in services.

So I would provide for you as well the figures that break out the mixof employment growth, which sectors have been growing and which havenot. But the broad picture is certainly consistent with what we are seeingfor the Nation as a whole.

Representative Saxton. Senator.Senator Corzine. We have a little interest in this chart here on this

side of the table, regardless of our political affiliations. I appreciate theinformation. I think the dispersion is really quite striking. I suppose thatis the case if we looked at almost every state in the country.

Ms. Abraham. That is true. There tend to be pockets, often in morerural or more isolated parts of the geography, where the unemploymentis higher.

Senator Corzine. I hope thai we will be able to take advantage ofthis New Jersey connection on a consistent basis, the Joint EconomicCommittee. Thank you very much, Commissioner.

Representative Saxton. Has your analysis of the unemployment oremployment situation in New Jersey taken into account industry byregion or job opportunities by region, or are you able to offer anyexplanation generally why it appears that perhaps our most rural-NewJersey counties - and we do have rural New Jersey counties - are doingsignificantly less well than counties that might be considered suburbangrowing counties or urban New Jersey counties?

Ms. Abraham. We would be happy to take a closer look at the datato see whether there is any light beyond what you see in the figures thatwe can shed on that.

Representative Saxton. Well, thank you very much.Let me ask one final question and then see if either of my colleagues

have a final question.Commissioner, you have indicated to us in the past on a consistent

basis, as has your predecessor, that in effect you warned.against readingtoo much into one month's data; and I have delivered the same messageto us fairly consistently. Are the data reported today any exception tothat rule?

Ms. Abraham. Oh, no. I think there are some things in the data forthis month that seem at this point to represent a'trend that has continuedover several months. But we are by no means willing to make predictionsabout what might happen next month.

Representative Saxton. And can you just articulate what that orthose trends may be?

Ms. Abraham. Well, it is the things that we have already discussed.I think clearly there has been slowing employment growth overall thatseems to be concentrated in manufacturing and help supply. In terms ofchanges, there seems to have been a pickup in recent months in the rateof growth of average hourly earnings. Having said that,.unemploymenthas remained low and we have not seen any slowdown in employmentgrowth outside of, broadly speaking, the sectors that I already ide itified.

Representative Saxton. But back to the thrust of my originalquestion, I guess - and I don't mean that you didn't answer my originalquestion because I asked you about trends and you told me what theywere - but back to - let.me just backtrack to my original question, andthat is that the data reported today are no exception to the rule in termsof reading too much into whether or not we are seeing any kind of achange in job growth or job loss.

Ms. Abraham. The more data you accumulate, the clearer thepicture.

Representative Saxton. Thank you very much.Senator or Congressman, do you have - Senator Corzine.

72-432 2001 - 2

Senator Corzine. Commissioner Abraham, the unemployment ratefor African-Americans jumped up from 7.6 to 8.4 December to January,and then I think it fell back to 7.5 percent. These numbers, these arepretty volatile changes. I presume that has something to do withsampling size.

Ms. Abraham. That is a good example of the point CongressmanSaxton was making.

Senator Corzine. I wonder what we could do, given a desire to havegreater tracking? What do we have to do to make sure that we get a moresteady read statistically over time?

Ms. Abraham. If we were to get a more steady read month-to-month, the only real option would be to substantially increase the size ofour monthly household survey. The monthly household survey is roughly50,000 households that are interviewed every month. Different groupsare represented, roughly in proportion to their share of the population.So African-Americans represent, very roughly, 10 percent of that sample.So naturally any statistics for that group are going to have, as you said,much higher sampling variability. The only real way to address thatwould be to substantially increase the size of the sample for that group,which would add to the expense of doing the survey.

Senator Corzine. Do you have any sense of taking the 50,000 andmaking it 75,000, or is there - and then with obviously commensuratepickup in the various distributional aspects, how much that runs, just agauge?

Ms. Abraham. The current budget for the monthly householdsurvey - you would know that, Phil. That is your responsibility.

Mr. Rones. The BLS share, which covers most of these monthlydata that we are talking about, is around $38 million a year for themonthly survey. If we increase the sample by 50 percent to 75,000, youare probably talking about close to a $15 to $20 million increase in thebudget.

I wouldn't try to talk you out of increasing the size of the CPS, butyou would still end up with fairly volatile estimates for these smallgroups, even at an increase of 50 or even a 100 percent. The overallnational unemployment rate is accurate to within about 2/10ths of apercentage point each month. For some of these smaller groups we aretalking about month-to-month variability that could be a full percentagepoint or even more. That would be reduced, but it would not provideestimates that would be comparable to the large groups we are talkingabout.

Senator Corzine. Over time hopefully I can form an opinion aboutbeing able to question the cost-benefit element as we watch variousgroups where you have these high concentrations of unemployment.

Ms. Abraham. I might add, if there were particular interest inparticular groups, it could also be possible to target sample increases onthose groups, which might make it somewhat less expensive rather thanjust expanding the whole survey.

15

Senator Corzine. Sure. That is one of those things that, as we gothrough this process of reviewing this data, the more precise in myquestion - I am concerned about you can draw pretty extremeconclusions off of very volatile data if you are not careful - not you butthose of us who use the data.

Ms. Abraham. I might note for some of these subgroups within thepopulation, taking data averages over several months, for example,obviously gives you a more precise fix. You just don't have it soprecisely for the current month.

Senator Corzine. Thank you, Commissioner.Representative Saxton. Mr. English.Representative English. No questions.Representative Saxton. Commissioner, thank you again for your

usual fine presentation. We appreciate it very much, and we lookforward to seeing you very soon in the future.

Ms. Abraham. Thank you.[Whereupon, at 10:23 a.m., the hearing was adjourned.]

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

PREPARED STATEMENT OFREPRESENTATIVE JIM SAXTON, CHAIRMAN

It is a pleasure to welcome Commissioner Abraham before theCommittee once again to report on the release of new employment andunemployment data for February.

A review of current economic conditions indicates that the economyhas slowed from the remarkable pace present through the middle of lastyear. An array of economic data shows that the economy has been in aslowdown for the last two quarters. For example, the rate of GDP growthhas fallen two quarters in a row, and consumer spending and investmentgrowth have also slipped.

However, there are some signs of residual economic strength incertain sectors such as construction and some service-producingindustries. In addition, overall employment growth has slowed but hasgenerally been positive.

The employment-population ratio remains high, and labor marketconditions, for the most part, remain fairly tight, as reflected in therelatively low unemployment rate. The slowdown does make theeconomy more vulnerable to shocks and disruptions, but the economyremains in positive territory. The Federal Reserve is aware of thesoftness in the economy and its recent survey indicates that this is acontinuing problem.

The employment data released today seem to be influenced by theslowing pace of the economy. Payroll job growth for February was135,000, considerably lower than the 225,000-250,000 range typicalduring the healthy economic expansion. The unemployment rateremained unchanged at 4.2 percent.

Given the weakening of the economy since the middle of last year,the case for change in economic policy is strong. The tightness ofFederal Reserve monetary policy should be relaxed, and the Fed hastaken steps in this direction earlier this year, although more remains to bedone. Further rate cuts by the Fed are needed.

Congress can also do its part by reducing the fiscal drag on theeconomy from the excessive tax burden imposed by our tax system. Thetax system is counterproductive, and now is a good time to reduce itsnegative effects. This will not make the economy turn on a dime, but itwill improve the prospects of continued economic growth now and intothe future.

The current economic outlook poses challenges that should not betaken lightly. Changes in macroeconomic policy are needed to get theeconomy back on track.

17

SEN.JACKREED(IU) 107H CONGRESSR-M

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Opening Statement

Senator Jack ReedRanking Member

March 9, 2001

I want to welcome Commissioner Abraham to the Committee this morning. Ialso want to thank Chairman Saxton for holding this hearing. These hearingsare an important tradition at the Joint Economic Committee.

No matter how you look at it, over the last ten years, we have experienced thestrongest economy in over a generation. Unemployment has decreased tohistoric lows, the gap between the richest and poorest has finally started toshrink, and poverty has dropped markedly.

However, in recent months, we have seen signs of a pause in the economy.We are at a crossroads and we must remain vigilant if we are to continue tobuild on our past successes.

Last week, the Bush administration proposed a tax cut that could be as much$2.2 trillion. If enacted, a tax cut of such magnitude could reverse the pastdecade of economic progress and could undermine the prosperity thatAmericans have worked so a hard to achieve.

I fear this $2.2 trillion tax cut could return us to the days of budget deficits andstagnant wages.

I bring up the tax cut because I believe the data we receive from thecommissioner is very relevant. Numbers like productivity are especiallyimportant to the tax debate. On Tuesday, the BLS reported that productivitygrowth during the last quarter of 2000 was 2.2 percent. For all of 2000,productivity surged 4.3 percent, the best showing since 1983. Healthyproductivity growth Is necessary to sustain high levels of economic growth and

18

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maintain improvements in wages and salaries, without igniting inflation. Wemust do all we can to insure that productivity growth remains high;we must do all we can to prevent the recent dip in the last quarter fromcontinuing.

Private investment in plant and equipment, education and training andresearch and development are key to raising productivity growth. Some of mycolleagues like to argue that cutting taxes alone promotes more investment.But if we learned anything from the last 20 years, it is that investors are muchsmarter than that. They know that the real cost of capital - based on interestrates and inflation - is more important than tax cuts.

If we want to sustain the prosperity of the last few years, we must be vigilantagainst the prospect of returning to budget deficits, which would push upinterest rates and stifle private investment once again. I hope we will notreturn to these failed policies but commit ourselves, instead, to paying downthe debt.

Recent statistical releases have raised some fears over the prospect ofrenewed inflation. The core CPI inflation rate jumped to 2.6% year-over-yearin January 2001, compared to 2.0 percent at the beginning of 2000. It isimportant to remember not to read too much into one month's or quarter'sdata. Second, I return to what I said before: modest increases in wages andprices do not need to be inflationary, as long as productivity growth is strong.

Again, I want to especially welcome Commissioner Abraham before theCommittee this morning and I look forward to hearing from you and yourcolleagues about the current economy and its impact on American workersand their families.

PREPARED STATEMENT OFSENATOR JON CORZINE

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As this is my first hearing of the JointEconomic Committee, let me say that I am very happy to be here, and tobe a member of the Committee. Given my backgroimd in the privatesector, I am hopeful that I will be able to make a contribution. And I amglad to have an opportunity to serve with such a distinguished colleaguefrom my own home State.

Mr. Chairman, I am looking forward to hearing from CommissionerAbraham and learning more about the most recent employment data. Ihave been following these and other economic indicators closely, as I didin my previous career, and, frankly, I have grown quite concerned. Itseems to me that we are in a period of great economic uncertainty, andreal down side risk.

For that reason, I have been working on a proposal with my colleaguefrom Florida, Senator Graham, to provide a middle class tax cut thatwould provide a real boost to the economy. Our proposal would establisha new ten percent rate bracket for couples with combined incomes up to$19,000, meaning that most families would get a tax cut of $950. The taxcut would be retroactive, so that it would have an immediate stimulativeimpact. And, of course, the faster we put money in peoples' pockets, thegreater the likelihood that we can avoid a recession and return to a pathof strong economic growth.

In any case, Mr. Chairman, while I do have concerns about the stateof our economy, I hope we will hear some good news today. And I lookforward to hearing from Commissioner Abraham.

20

FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.S.T.FRIDAY, MARCH 9, 2001

Advance copies of this statement are made available to thepress under lock-up conditions with the explicitunderstanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30'a.m.Eastern Standard Time.

Statement of

Katharine G. AbrahamCommissioner

Bureau of Labor Statistics

before the

Joint Economic Committee

UNITED STATES CONGRESS

Friday, March 9, 2001

Mr. Chairave and Members of the Committee:

I appreciate this opportunity to comment on the labor

market data we released this morning.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent in

February, and payroll employment rose by 135,000. Since

early last fall, the growth in payroll employment has

slackened. In the 5 months since September, the average

monthly increase in payroll employment has been 103,000. In

contrast, during the first 9 months of last year, payroll

employment had grown by 187,000 a month, on average. The

key features of the February data, in my view, are the

21

2

continued reduction in manufacturing employment and hours,

the more-than-offsetting job gains in services and some

other industries, and the over-the-month rise in average

hourly earnings.

Manufacturing employment fell by 94,000 in February.

This follows a decline of about the same amount in January

and brings total factory job losses since last June to

371,000. The decline in February was widespread throughout

manufacturing. Even the electronic components industry had

a small job loss over the month; employment in this industry

has been on an upward trend since the spring of 1999. The

only manufacturing industry with a sizable over-the-month

increase was motor vehicles, but that gain (13,000) was only

a fraction of the loss that occurred in January (48,000).

On net, auto industry employment has fallen by 77,000 since

June.

Both manufacturing hours and overtime also continued on

downward trends in February. Since June, the average

factory workweek has declined by a full hour, and overtime

has fallen by 0.8 hour. The factory workweek is now at its

lowest level since the spring of 1991, except for 2 months

when winter storms caused sharp, temporary reductions in

hours.

22

3

Weakness in manufacturing-may have affected some other

industries. For example, wholesale trade--an intermediary

between manufacturers and customers--has lost 22,000 jobs

since November. This is the largest such decline in the

industry since early 1993. Employment in help supply

services, which is dominated by temporary help firms that

provide workers to manufacturing as well as other

industries, was little changed in February but has fallen by

200,000 since April. Help supply had experienced dramatic

job growth during most of the economic expansion that began

in the spring of 1991.

Employment in the services industry as a whole rose by

95,000 in February. Health services had the largest job

increase among the services industries, as employment in

hospitals continued to benefit from recent changes in

Medicare payment schedules. Employment also rose in social

services, computer services, and private education. Public

education accounted for a large share of the rise in

government jobs over the month.

Retail trade employment rose by 37,000 in February,

after seasonal adjustment, following 2 months of very small

gains. Mortgage banking continued to add jobs due to high

levels of refinancing activity. Following a very large gain

in January, construction added 16,000 jobs in February.

23

4

Since October, employment in the industry has increased by

37,000 a month, on average. In the 12 months prior to

October, the average monthly increase was only 23,000.

Average hourly earnings were up 7 cents in February;

the over-the-year increase was 4.1 percent. This was the

fourth month in a row that the over-the-year increase was 4

percent or above. Throughout most of 1999 and 2000, the

over-the-year gains had remained in the 3.5- to 3.8-percent

range.

As I mentioned at the beginning of my statement, the

unemployment rate was unchanged in February at 4.2 percent.

The jobless rate for blacks, which had risen in January,

returned to its fourth-quarter level of 7.5 percent. In

February, the number of newly unemployed (those unemployed

less than 5 weeks) and the number of unemployed job losers

who were not on temporary layoff both rose for the second

month in a row. Other cyclical indicators from our survey

of households, such as the number of people working part

time despite their preference for full-time work and the

number of people outside the labor force who have stopped

looking for work, have shown no clear sign of an upward

trend.

In summary, the sharp downturn in manufacturing

employment and hours continued in February. Still, overall

25

United StatesNews:D sBureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Internet address: http//stats.bs.gov/newsrels.htmTechnical information: USDL01-57

Household data: (202) 691-6378

Transmission of material in this release is

Establishment data- 691-6555 embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),

Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, March 9,2001.

THE EMPIOYMENT SITUATION: FEBRUARY 2001

The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in February, and total nonfarm employment rose by

135,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Large job

losses continued in manufacturing, where employment declined by 94,000. Employment gains in several

other industries, including services, accounted for the net increase in payroll employment. Average

hourly earnings rose by 7 cents over the month.

Chart 1. Unemopnt.t rat. seasomny 8 , Chart 2 aamrr par l ,emanent sonally ajsed.

S Marh 1998 - Febuary201 Mdt 1998- Februay 20D1

200 000

Unemployment (Household Surver Datal

Both the number of unemployed persons (5.9 million) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent)

were essentially unchanged in February. The jobless rates for most of the major worker groups-adult

men (3.5 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), teenagers (13.6 percent), whites (3.7 percent), and

Hispanics (6.3 percent)-were little changed from January. The unemployment rate for blacks declined

to 7.5 percent, the same level as in the last quarter of 2000. (See tables A-I and A-2.)

In February, both the number of newly unemployed (those unemployed less than 5 weeks) and the

number of unemployed job losers who did not expect to be recalled rose for the second consecutive

month. (See tables A-6 and A-7.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment was essentially unchanged at 135.8 million, seasonally adjusted, in February. The

civilian labor force, at 141.8 million persons, also was little changed over the month. The labor force

26

2

Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted(Numbers in thousands)_________________________

Quarterly averages Monthly data Jan.-Category 2000 2000 2001 Feb.

III IV Dec. Jan. Feb. change

HOUSEHOLD DATA Labor force status

Civilian labor force...........................Employment................................Unemploym ent.............................

Not in labor force...............................

All workers.........................................Adult men.....................................Adult women................................Teenagers......................................W hite...........................................BlacL............................................Hispanic origin.............................

ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Nonfarm em ployment.......................Goods-producing.........................

Construction...........................M anufacturing.........................

Service-producing'.......................Retail trade.......................... .Services...................................Government...........................

Total private.......................................M anufacturing..............................

Overtime................................

Total private.......................................

Average hourly earnings,total private.............................

Average weekly earnings,otal rivate

140.7 141.208 141,489 141,955 141,751 -204135,04 135,593 135,836 135,999 135.815 -184

5,657 5,616 5,653 5,956 5.936 -2069,235 69.358 69,254 68,934 69,275 341

Unemployment rates

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 .03.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 -0.13.6 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 .1

13.5 12.9 13.1 13.8 13.6 -.23.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 .17.6 7.5 7.6 8.4 7.5 -.95.6 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.3 .3

Employment

131,619 131,836 131,878 p132.102 p132.237 p135

25,680 25.623 25.569 p25,639 p25,564 p-756,688 6,732 6,717 p6.875 p6,891 p16

18,453 18,350 18,312 pl8,216 p18,122 p-94105,940 106,213 106,309 p106,463 p106,673 p21023,189 23,225 23,245 p23.250 p23,287 p37

40,553 40,752 40,797 p40,884 p40,979 p9520,536 20,435 20.435 p20,0 p20,539 p37

Hours of work2

34.4 34.3 34.11 p34.3 p34.21 p-0.141.5 41.01 40.4 p40.9 p40.6 p-.3

4.5 4.2 3.9 p4.1 p3.8 p-.3Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (1982=100)2

151.21 151.21 150.61 p151.81 pl51.01 p-08

Earaings2

$13.79 $13.95 $14.02 p$14.03 p$14.10 p$0.07

474.03 478.13 478.08 p481.23 p482.22 P99Includes other industries, not shown separately. ,Data relate to private production or nonupervisory worker.

p=-rlminay.

p

...................................

participation rate-the proportion of the population age 16 and older who are either working orlooking for work-edged down by 0.1 percentage point to 67.2 percent, still relatively high byhistorical standards. (See table A-1.)

About 7.6 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) held more than one job in February. Thesemultiple jobholders represented 5.6 percent of total employment, compared with 5.8 percent a yearearlier. (See table A-10.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

About 1.3 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force inFebruary, the same as a year earlier. These people wanted and were available to work and had looked fora job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however, because theyhad not actively searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouragedworkers was 289,000 in February, about the same as a year earlier. Discouraged workers, a subset of themarginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs wereavailable for them. (See table A-10.)

Industr Payrll Employment (Establishment Surve Data

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 135,000, seasonally adjusted, in February. Since lastSeptember, the average monthly growth in payroll employment has been 103,000, compared with anaverage gain of 187,000 during the first 9 months of last year. In February, major job losses continuedin manufacturing. These losses, however, were more than offset by gains in services and most othermajor industry divisions. (See table B-1.)

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing employment fell by 94,000 in February, following asimilar loss (as revised) in January. Together, these losses exceeded the total employment decline in thisindustry for all of 2000. With the exception of motor vehicles, where some workers returned fromtemporary layoffs, employment declines in manufacturing were widespread in February. Job lossescontinued in fabricated metals (13,000) and in industrial machinery (11,000). Electrical equipment andapparel also lost I1,000 jobs each. Smaller employment declines occurred in a number of otherindustries, including furniture, primary metals, textiles, printing and publishing, paper, and rubber andplastics.

Elsewhere in the goods-producing sector, construction employment rose by 16,000, seasonallyadjusted, in February, following an unusually large increase in January. Mining employment rose by3,000 in February, after having increased by 8,000 in January. Employment in oil and gas extractioncontinued to grow; this industry has gained 25,000 jobs over the last year.

In the service-producing sector, services employment increased by 95,000 in February, about in linewith its average monthly increase during 2000. In February, health services employment rose by 28,000,as hospitals added I1,000 jobs. Business services gained 24,000 jobs, after 4 consecutive months of joblosses. Within business services, employment rose by 15,000 in computer services, following weakgrowth in January. Help supply employment was little changed over the month; in the prior 4 months,job declines totaled 181,000. Social services added 15,000 jobs in February, and private educationemployment grew by 20,000.

Employment in finance, insurance, and real estate rose by 16,000 in February, continuing the growthtrend that begin last August. Strong demand for mortgage refinancing boosted employment in moitgagebanks, which grew by 5,000 over the month. Employment increased by 5,000 in insurance carriers,

28

4

Employment in transportation and public utilities grew by 28,000, following a decline in January. Jobgrowth in February was nearly double the industry's average monthly gain for 2000. Air transportation,which had accounted for most of the loss in January, added 15,000 jobs in February.

Employment in retail trade increased by 37,000 in February, following 2 months of little change.Gains were widespread. Employment in department stores, however, was little changed; this industryhas lost 60,000 jobs over the year. Wholesale trade employment declined for the third consecutivemonth.

Government employment increased by 37,000 in February. Employment in local government grewby 26,000, including an increase of 16,000 jobs in local education. There was little change in federalgovernment employment.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls edgeddown by 0.1 hour in February to 34.2 hours, seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek fell by0.3 hour to 40.6 hours; since June, the factory workweek has fallen by 1.0 hour. Manufacturing over-time declined by 0.3 hour in February to 3.8 hours, the lowest level since 1992. (See table B-2.)

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarmpayrolls declined by 0.5 percent to 151.0 (1982=100), seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index fellby 1.4 percent to 101.1. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Eamings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls in-creased by 7 cents in February to $14.10, seasonally adjusted. Over the month, average weekly earningsincreased by 0.2 percent to $482.22. Over the year, average hourly earnings rose by 4.1 percent andaverage weekly earnings grew by 2.9 percent. (See table B-3.)

The Employment Situation for March 2001 is scheduled to be released on Friday, April 6, at8:30 A.M. (EDT).

March 2000 National BenchmarksIn accordance with standard practice, BLS will release nonfarm payroll employment

benchmark revisions with the May data on June 1, 2001. The March 2000 benchmarklevel has been finalized and will result in an upward revision of469,000 to total nonfarmemployment for the March 2000 reference month, an adjustment of 0.4 percent.

Also concurrent with the release of the March 2000 benchmark revisions on June 1,BLS will continue the implementation of a new probability-based sample design for thepayroll survey that began last year with the wholesale trade industry. Estimates for themining, construction, and manufacturing industries will incorporate the new sampledesign with this release. Further information is available on the Intemet(httpJI/stats.bls.gov/ceshome.htm) or by calling (202) 691-6555.

Explanatory Note

This news release presents statistics from two major surveys, theCurrent Population Survey (household survey) and the CurrentEmployment Statistics survey (establishment survey). The householdsurvey provides the information on the labor force. employment, andunemployment that appears in the A tables, marked HOUSEHOLDDATA. It is a sample survey of about 50.000 households conductedby the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The establishment survey provides the information on theemployment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls thatappears in the B tables, marked ESTABLISHMENT DATA. Thisinformation is collected from payroll records by BLS in cooperationwith Stae agencies. In June 2000. the sample included about 300,000establishments employing about 48 million people.

For both surveys. the data for a given month relate to a particularweek or pay period. In the household survey, the reference week isgenerally the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month.In the establishment survey. the reference period is the pay periodincluding the 12th, which may or may not correspond directly to thecalendar week.

Coverage, definitlions, and differencesbetween surveys

Household survey. The sample is selected to reflect the entireciviian nninstitutional population. Based on responses to a series ofquestions on work and job search activities, each person 16 years andover in a sample household is classified as employed. unemployed, ornot in the labor force.

People are classified as enployed if they did any work at all as paidemployees during the reference week; worked in their own business,profession. or on their own farm; or worked without pay at least 15hours in a family business or farm. People are also counted asemployed if they were temporarily absent from their jobs because ofillness.bad weather, vacation. labor-managementdisputes,orpersonalreasons.

Peopleacmclansifieduasnemployediftheymeet all ofthefollowingcriteria: They had no employment during the reference week; theywere available for work at that time; and they made specific efforts tofind employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with thereference week. Persons laid off from ajob and expecting recall neednot be looking for work to be counted us unemployed. Theunemployment data derived from the household survey in on waydepend upon the eligibility for or receipt of unemployment insurancebenefits.

The civilian laborfore is the sum of employed and unemployedpersons. Those not classified as employed or unemployed are no inthe laborforce. The unemployment rate is the number unemployed asa percent of the labor force. The faborforce participation rat is thelabor force as a percent of the population, and the employearn-population ratio is the employed as a percent of the population.

Establishment survey. The sample establishments ore drawnfrom private norfarm businesses such as factories, offices, and stores,as well as Federal, State, and local governmeententities. FEnployees on

eoarorm payrolls are those who received pay for any part of thereference pay period, including persons on paid leave. Persons arecounted in each job they bold. Hoaus andeaminrgs data are for privatebusinesses and relate only to production workers in the goods-producingsectorandnonsupervisory workersinthe service-producingsector.

Differences in employment estimates. The numerous conceptealand methodological differences between the household andestablishmentsurveysresultinimportandistinctionsintheemploymentestimates derived from the surveys. Among these are:

*Tbehouseodsurveyincludesagricauall workers, theself-employed,unpaid family workers.andprivatehousehold workers among the employed.These groups are excluded from the esablishmeat survey.

* The household survey includes people on unpaid leave among theemploycd. he establishment survey does not.

* Tbehouscholdsurveyislimitedto workers l6yearsofageandOlder.e establisbahmet survey is not limited by age.* The household survey has n daptication of individuals. hecause

individuals are countedonly once. even if they hold more than nejob. Inrhe establishment survey, employees working at more than oar job andthus appearing on more than ore payroll would be counted separately foreach appearance.

Other differences between the two surveys ore described in"Comparing Employment Estimates from Household and PayrollSurveys," which may be obtained from BLS upon request

Seasonal adjustmentOver the course of a year, the size of the nation's labor force and

the levels of employment and unemployment undergo sharpfluctuations due to such seasonal events as changes in weatherreduced or etpanded production, harvests, major holidays, and theopening and closing ofschools. Theeffectofsuchscasonal variationcan be very large; seasonal fluctuations may acciit for as much as95 percent of the month-to-month changes in unemployment.

Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regularpatterneachyear,theirinfluenceonstatisticaltrendscanbeeliminatedby adjusting the statistics from month to month. These adjustmentsmake nonseasonal developments, such as declines in economicactivity or increases in the participation of woman in the labor force.easier to spot. For example, the large number of youth entering thelabor force each June is likely to obscure any other changes that havetaken place relative to May, making it difficult to determine if thelevel of economic activity has risen or declined. However, becausethe effect of students finishing school in previous years is known, thestatistics forthe current year can be adjusted toallow for acomparablechange. Insofar as the seasonal adjustment is made correctly, theadjusted figure provides a more useful tool with which to analyzechanges in economic activity.

In both the household and establishment surveys, most seasonallyadjusted series ore independently adjusted. However, the adjustedseries for many major estimates, such as total payroll employment,employment in most major industry divisions, total employment, and

unemployment re computed by aggregating independently adjustedcomponent series. For example, total unemploynent is derived bysumming the adjusted series for four major age-ron components; tidsdiffers from the unemployment estimate that would be obtained bydirectly adjusting the total or by combining the duration, reasons, ormore detailed age categories.

Th numerical factors used to make the seasonal adjustments arerecalculated twice a year. For the household survey, the factors am,calculatedforthdeanuary-JuncperiodandagainfortheJuly-Decemberperiod. For the establishment survey, updated factors for seasonaladjustment are calculated for the May-October period and introducedalong with new benchmarks, and again forthe November-April period.In both surveys, revisions to historical data are made once a year.

ReliablIfty of the estinatesStatistics based on the household and establishment surveys are

subject toboth sampling and nonsampling crror. Whenasample ratherthan the catire population is surveyed, there isa chance that the sampleestimates may differ from the "rue" population values they represent.f1re exact difference, or sompling error, varies depending on theparticular sample selected, and this variability is measured by thestandard crror of the estimate. There is about a 90-percent chance, orlevel of confdence, that an estimate based on sample will differ byno more than 1.6 standard errans from the "true" population valuebecause of sampling aror. BIS analyses are generally conducted atthe 90-percent level of confidence.

Forenample, theconfidence interval forthemonthly cungeintotalemploymentfromthehousehold surveyisontheorderofphsnormims376,000. Suppose the estimate of total employment increases by100,000 from one month to the nest. lie 90-percent confideneinterval on the monthly change would range from -276,000 to476,000(100.000 o/- 376.000). These figures do not ame that the sampleresults me off by them magnitodes, bin rather that tie is about a 90-percent chance that the "true" over-the-month change lies within tisinterval. Since this range includes values of less than zero, we couldnot say with confidence that employment had, in fact, increased. If,however, the reported employment rise was half a million, then all ofthe values within the 90-perent confidence interval would be greaterthan acmo. In this case, it is likely (at least a 90-perent chance) thatan employment rise had, in fact. occurred. The 90-perent confidereinterval for the monthly change in unemploymenr is +/. 258,000, andfor the monthly change in the unemployment ce it is +/- .21percentage point.

In general. estimates involving many individuals or establishmentshave lower standard ras (relative to the size of the estimate) thanestimates which am based on a small mamber of observations. Tieprecision of estimates is also improved who the data ae cumulatedover time such as for quarterly and anmal averages. Thu seasonaladjusnrent process can also improve the stability of ie moatlyestimates.

The household and establishment surveys are also affected bynonsampling error Nonsampling rrors can occur for many reasons.including the failure to sample a segment of the population. inabilityto obtain information for all respondents in the sample, inability orunwillingness of respondents to provide correct information on atimely basis. mristakes made by respondents, and errors made in thecollection or processing of the data.

For example, in the establishment srvey. estimates for the mostrecent 2 months are based on substantially incomplete returns; for thisreason. these estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. Itis onlyafrer two successive revsisons to a moaly estimate, when nearly allsample reports have been received, that the estimate is considered final.

Another major source of nonsampling error in the establishmentsurvey is the inability to capture, on a timely basis. employmentgeneratedbynewfirms. Tocorrectforthissystemticundermimationof employmenr growth (and other sources of error), a process knownas bias adjustment is included in the survey's estimating procedures,whereby a specified number of jobs is added to the monthly sample-based change. The size of the monthly bias adjustment is based largelyon past relationships between the sample-based estimatesof erployment and the total counts of employment described below.

lhe sample-based esimates from the establishment survey ameadjusted once a year (on a lagged basis) to universe counts of payrollemploymnolobtainedfromadministraiverecordsoftheunemploymentinsurance program. The difference between the March sample-basedemployment estimatns and the March universe counts is known as abenchmark revision, and serves as a rough proxy for total survey error.The new bendmarks also incorporate changes in the classification ofindusuies. Over the past decade the benchmark revision for totalnonfarm employment has averaged 0.3 percent. ranging from zero to0.7 percent.

Additional statistics and other InformationMore comprehensive staristics are contained in Employment and

Earnings. published each month by BLS. It is available for S2.00 perisurse or $50.00 per year from the U.S. Government Printing Office.Washington, DC 20402. All ordes must be prepaid by sending acheck er money order payable tothe Superintendend of Docunents. orby charging to Mastercard or Visa.

Employment and Earnings also provides measures ofsampling error for the household survey data published in thisrelease. For unemployment and other labor force categories. thesemeasuresappearintables I-B through I-H ofits "Explanatory Notes."Measures of the reliability of the data drawn from theestablishmert survey and the actual amounts of revision due to bench-mark adjustments are provided in tables 2-B through 2-1 of thatpublication.

lIformation in this release will be made available to sensaryimpaired individuals upon request. Voice phoace 202-691-5200TDD messafe referral phone: 1-8tW8T-8339.

31

HOUS67IOL DATA HOUSE14OL DATA

Table A-11. Empisyfll uSo of1, On5611991 populabooe by s Sale -p

FFt, Fal, o Ift'. 50 66

TOTAL

Ch.-.Sn*po 0 215299 2110,1 20@A7 210.37 Min51 210.743 21029 m11An

Or*- MW1116 it-.185 141P49 141ZW 140AM3 141AM 141.136 141.43 14105 11.751

Pldd1o6 ora 67.1 W9. 6.9 67.A 67.0 67.0 67.1 67.3 872

Eesby.d .. 137.204 134A46 134.174 136.120 136.464 1047 135.815 136299 133,.115

E.Wopl160P*51 MW6 8 6.11 am. 67. 64.7 64.4 643 6425 642 64.44 I*.2.M7 2.91 2.7 06 3,3157 3.241 3.1711 3.774 3.176 3.135

wakl1aw2a3655 I 36.361 131.671 131.916 131.753 137.= 13.= 137.567 191.419 13ANL267156 . .31 6.56 6.464 5.740 5.536 SAM6 5.053 129 5.115 1W

41179155119 4.4 4.7 4A 4.1 5) 4A 420 4.2 4.2No364M1913- 36.737 69.41 6.06 66.04 69279 6.44 6.254 36.34 36275

Pomrwouayriau - 4.431 4,474 426 4276 4.37 42351 62A= 4.417 4.416

KMn 16 yam' gid over

15Ia, .- *.dkibWProli9 100=3 1012357 101.2 10GA.) 101,0715 19.175 101*9 1012357 101.A29

Or atoorkarra 74MO 75.149 75.110 71.301 7521 73.mS 75=26 71,015 75A547

.P664 ada - - 74.6 74.1 74.1 75.1 74.0 74.5 74.6 744 742EWby5I~~ - 71.311 71.465 71.430 72=9 75.427 7Z,254 r3.534 3236 73236

E1711.66171.1 70.4 70.4 MI. 71.7 71.5 71.6 71 1.3

W917151 3.497 3.744 3AS7 3,03 2.944 3=9 5.6 3*= %.107o,4.7 5.0 4.9 4.0 .5 4 41D 4 4.2

Melt. 2D years anid over

5lf.nrrldm!pprao 2M~ 93.164 67.3= 2.ew so.n6 07363.= 2117 War16 0.3=

0~~ bo I-0.754l 71.161 71.,139 70.52 n1.155 71.136 71.2119 71.49 71*22

P95pk , 76. 76.4 752 7760 762 76. 76.6 76.7 762Eso4~..-67.36 66.101 36.114 69.57 66.774 66.667 694 36.66 6.,701

ratio11690366 M15 7. I'M73. 742 7420 73.8 73.9 74A 73.6A5. ~ . - - 2.516 l.95 1296 2253 2219 Z22 22*2 Z22 3154

691132 ~l6 ~ .... 62981 66164 94.2m 66.24 st.1l5 656, 66.41 65.766 66.017

1519019 ___________ 2.875 3.051) 3M 2.375 2251 2.452 2,441 2.576 2A52U697196211 raw, 4M 423 43 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3-5

Wouteri 16 years slid over

akt,.ran O. Scam6953612 106.577 too=3 136296 1login 13m= 136.402 100,483 1069 10696Om61I936 .-- __Win__ 65.37 66 6%120 36452 65*29 36756 65907 66.4 69L204

P 13- 6 2 6.3 03 9. 31 W2 66.4 WA.55111 5 ...- ___________ 62.642 6735 67364 67.76 63X7 67.134 MAM! 67410 63.41

E717915119160691669131 r .a-io 57.7 076 072 5720 27.7 57.7 57) 57.0 57.91656515~~..________ . 2.736 2.942 2.77 2.75 22952 2.605 2*5 2.73D 2749

Srrios16,larrat am - 42 42 42 4.1 3.9 4D 4.9 4.1 4.2

Worroen. 20 year's and over

Ol995l*Wk49d9pl -ote .. 16.66 03 MAN* 105296 1014 101.53 101462 101,063 10126C41 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~SP 69146OZ-6,7 3164 62331 61.466 61*;1A46)6 71W 92

_________________ 612 612 612 61.1 a". 67 60. 61.1 61.2

Eraboyed 69.331 36.73 36*9 50.215 69.425 69*9 36.766 3699P soje

w71519199 9 SLID- 36. 916.9 362 582 56.6 0 6.6 11.9 16.5

Ab9664 717 M9 664 748 797 R? 66766*9 MA 56293 54211 06.431 56.177 56*9 UM69 96.942 91LM__________ .9 2,464 2*29 2* Z.163 2.116 2.111 2=9 225

Unmarlopowl69~~. ad9 M 39 5.7 3.a 3.4 U4 3. U. 3,7

Botw selves. 16 to 19 years

am fl0*ta5ivard6ori6Pop 16.148 56*5 16.113 16.149 ISAW6 I5.99 40,141 16.5 18,113a~b1 -7.0115 7.m2 7.765 L4. 8.317 6.31 6.361 6.91 a"26

P4616--46. 40.1 48.2 67.1 52. 67.6 522 51.9 512

0,j45S6764 6.69 6296 7*94 720 729 7290 7.169 7.122E9411160634641A 41.1 412 Us4 5. 45 5 451 49 47 442

Agb9.--II 128 94 20 274 205a a 143691951341110.64 6.971 6.581 702 ".9 7=9 7*9 6*3 6.

l .d1.151 1.123 1.110 1 .162 'I I* 1*9 111 1.146 1.121

L94.9i1 an414 I 14 AP1 I 13L2 12.6 16.5 1&.1 132 Me.

I Par popubdo 9593amM n rale 1394256 ammni twg fail. bitffca examb.91pe9ift caarala od915969 oSan9.

32

H0625740L DATA sHOUSBIaw DATA

EFmra vMW mo 0n-. W.5 md N " ow olwys

__ _ _ _ _ _ mm m8 2W1 mw ow mw ml 78 m

a73.m. 175346w. - - IM 176.78 5717 174M 17825 I1.45 573246 In=.7CkWk1I 17.154 557.78 117.7= 117A01 117.78I 117*40 117340 516276 M.47It W 161A 1163 07.7 672 672 67. 67 6725

152.670h~mW ZA 1.4m 13.67 13201 113206 113.78 113211 11462153 113.78Eo~y6m. - 64.7 64. 64.5 672 a6. 64" 672 65 46II4276 4.86 ON4 4,161) 4276 4.131 Om4 -XI1 4.383.6 4.1 4.7 32 S4 32 32 3A 317

-77.1 MY7 76. 77A 76.6 7U. 764 77.0 76*57.11267 67.127 67275 562= 46261 5647 611261 6271 KI.M6671.46ms4p56w,7 74.4 M3. 73.7 752 74.7 74.6 742 74 742S

W6~62.116 2.310 5.7 1.732 1.728 178m 1.76 1*25 SAM3A10y618- 1 3.9 3A 22 2.9 &0 IS 12 22

W66768.3 2686 ymill 678mOWNW. b k- _____________ 30.415 56646 61276 46.m MAI28 6.8 80227 50.7648 5044

.= n62 46. 617 672 Mo2 a"2 M2 672 a"E6.40.40614~ to 48.66 4%171 49303 45.7112 48777 468 48,673 45276) 48.156

6.6 156 '66.7 6.2 66.2 562 5604 56.7 5013W86~An6 P.7 27 1.716 1261 AN6 s26 154 m26 1A.506441666&831 33 34 &1 &0 &. 1 3 3

Ck.. Bob___________o_19 _____ 626A3 6AN a.m 7.103 7AW 77= 7.8 6SAN 8.64S"5 6 8. 51A 51A 52 56. 8553 SLY 88.1 56,lifts~ 5411 5,070 6.70 6246 6&M 6266 L257 6.174 0.14645* 44. 45.3 46.1 4S2 46. 45. 48.7 48.

m In86 7 867 7M6 616 612 654 75 7 56- 132 57.6 11* 12.2 512 11.7 12 55.7 15.5565 13.5 15'43 13A 11. 12.4 12.2 113 its57 @A 6 0.4 162 1"* 10.? 6 92

13LACK31.676ppfS, 2X 252M 25.A12 2527 25=33 25.37 5.45 25.72 2N.41208053.ibo WW _________ 16.6" 18.577 162511 18.72 15.7 18.732 I8.42 18.73 ism6

E~ d5.164 55176 15.102 '5.416 13.671 15.48 I5.7 15372 1SAI0I-76 I278 . 567 1276 1.8 1.8 '1.0 1233 1.0 5.25

L3 62s 6 7 7.4 72 7* L4 72

Os8.s5 be._I______20 ________ 7AW5 772 7.M7 7.414 77M 7U67 7.437 7.43D 72X4P66= 766 3 3.3 72A4 713 73L* 7* 76 7r" 732 724

11~~*~p7s7 73 463 SU4 MY 672 67* 67* 6m2 WASL .d64 5"5 57 62 55 Soo 84 152 487126446..17. 7A 72 7.1 7.0 6 72 2 6

7.16 7.716 7.786 7.777 7.707 778 7.An 7.M3 7.64614 662 61.1 61*9 612 612 61.7 676 61s

'Il 111_______________ 87 8 56 7 17 472 am 4112U660a7 62 7 &81 623 &2 62 3.7 7.3 Its

108 ft.18 78 4IN Mw m8 ow7 low 63 1 86P5 6____________ 67 8 38.5 MO* MO 41.0 3114 46.6 306672 1154 an 746 747 78 712 73Iwo.2 26A 23 302 3M4 3.1 46.6 5M. 46.4

25.0 MY. 2 24.3 25* 31* 26. 27A MO213 27* 21.3 15 87* MY 6 3* 6.

T*66 A-S. Ew496ysn4W 8 56~ of5 go papd~85 by M%6 Se3. 8^s .44 adopicn-CMA55bmd

5*8535 I 85

Notayu4 015 .- esl 6ommo"s. .4

F~b I- F. 1.5 0.5 .9,ml lm ml m 2M0 m ml

HISPAWI 666

15t b-I.56 I13 INI5W .. 5. 15. 15 1.41 . I&M j 11.567 46.1 85. 65.7 85.5 a". au 5 I 8.

ULM56 t4=85 %4=I5 4=W 4."1 KING5 M4772 14.61 I 1.6643995 851 S9 1 642 75 GC? G" 85287

65546566 .5 6.A 6 5.7 SA0 6.0 5.7 50 6.)

'1h. P495bf1 IF-.6 .556644 ICI 4 -. W 9 5*d4.636 b.65856IN4do.w85185.V 0a8p.63864and a**dklbnwoblM app h. ft..*4,W n5 WW 3 66bm. 63l9.Wbt5* pp1d9 W.

T*49A. E 5615 986598 sP popui443665 5yesnd Id s.bye.*c54.s 66

Notssuyass Seeomily 5485564

L. 9.855.644g Om5M85 D- IU5

56331164955n 27o V67 27.151 27275 27,55 27AB VAW 27W* ZY.19111WS 12.63 I1.78 11"s6 1&182 11.68 11.68 12.6 52.574

P-"dpa.A. 4.5 @&2 4M. 452 45&7 47. 42.7 45.0 MA41.639 11W 106785 11,63 11.( 11.17 11.an 11.185 11.1,40

39.6~m~~1 MG255 36.4 41.1 45.5 40.1 Z9 490 41LO(9.1101 m-___________ 63 565 735 794 787 745 616 954

15540657A .2 8.7 &I1 GA 62 A 6.5 6 7.7

57.71 56 57,817 57471 57A6 57M STAN6 sun3 57117V66h8 7.6 27115 37"S VAN5 5,965 5 37.120 NM 27.41 5763

P69 56M 855v 85.7 4 * "A 5.3 64.5 a". 62 64 64.85.03 Wide 5.644 8L203 35.707 5.130 35W 366N mmW

a"5 65.9 5 .2 a"2 65. U5 52 m5 61.9 5515598A4 .71 IW 1144 IAN1 125 IW I= IA2 1,A14

&135. 4.4 4.5 35 M. 15 3,B &.5

LessUmI 9665.~ 5S5i6dSU66

C~nn~fdMppkn44.46 44.513 45=56 44A56 44.707 44,770 44.06 44.513 45=55O 363 85.94 32.M9 3M.14 85145 85156 3IL775 33.545 33.102 3507

P-Io9095bdi 74,1 72 M32 73A4 732 71. 74.1 747 73.~1 431311 51.704 556Z3 Mil71 85.18 85.86 85.141 35.21 32.157lo 71.7 712A 71 713 71.7 712 72.1 72.5 71.1

V645156 5. Z 1 D 30 U M. 2-7 6.7 50 2.

O.9.mn *63kM 49w649f 45.W4 4S.790 45.567 45.54 45.705 45.705 45WS 4.1110 411.167

psw6 opo 854 M567 5.194 35.850 535M 5.74 35.866 SU.N 396399l.6555576.8 75.5 75. 75.6 77A 751 7M. 78.4 78.0

u58554b.w so6 on 5"5 85 m613 565 Go 667 57(985499516363 1.7 5.7 is IA 1.5 12 Is 1.6 1.5

11t. ppl.191 - M~dl...8d .. 85.6 6 9 md. . k6963.636 h.14l4944889.6p-f...~ I4~.3~9,3.8 4O56d 6*-

HOUSEHOLD DATAHOUSEHOLD DATA

HOUISEHOLD DATA 4U30DAT

.. FO Flu 53 & ow D- . f5.

T4l. 4 3d1.M4 UVIR4 124.M 13.104 13.44 124.47 13.4 185,111 SM.4n.- &m 4&M ImM n4m 41.M4 azB 4%M 4&06e nmu~m Sum snm mul 33, 3&M -a nag amam &M am 4.1 GA4O 91M4 am am am

W-*4MM7 413W 41.701 n4j. 3.4M 41AM 41*14 MAIN 41.71M30.44 a~m AM74 nLW 3a1 3141 3.23 4M"44 AMS.4*7wo 2~l 7.2 SUN14 141am laws 4714 I&=2 ta.12 lam

%4ADS 24"3 so*74 14.ll I&m 147 "An4 UAW1 KIMsbo .b 17A= VAN1 17*14 14.24 I&=2 U14 14.71 UAW1 VAN4-b fttam us. RM 3AM am am .W aUm aMCLASSwOm

Af~-

ow12 1* Iwo W 1.'M 1.12 1.13 1.3 I.1= 1.319o~t 3N JI) 47 2 as so 25 24

23*1"MtM 12M MAW3 14.13 MAN41 14.1 UU= M48 14.1

MW 13 MM mon mum ova ot4 13m 2

U. AVm I am UP a am am An allftl -74 as4 14 74 13 13 "21 130 m4

P481MAT 2481 AMTW

P44mbp I-a Ins RAO' am 1 I= am us &MAV57 M4 wI I* an1 ow1 IK4 .44

"J"2 "Am SA, lam I&M an lam tam HUI.

af" **.I74 &M 4.1 I'M2 l*1 am l.44 1*71 k*11.o41$mw.* 3M W3 1111 V1 47 W0 W

toen1 4* 14.13 tWl IMW I4 I LI I 3.46 I sum

Itn. wbftd4g~ GO$8 I~ b~ 3 4 Ib4 * hV ft oloqw -l, w~ a%=20=- "k Ill .Nm Blo a 3IMaltlb

HOUSEHOLD DATA

HOUSEHOLD DATA

Tabb AI4 6 Sweted7unsupomen Indicrs seasnall a4ttd

HOUSEHOLD DATA

of504-'1 'PS- 810

ca64om (i o' sR& j- F. W 0 .. D-~ j- F

T6,w.~4 .740 SAN0 Sim 4.1 3S 41 4a 4.2 4.2

46160 31I.W0 2.76 2.6 2.6V 21 3. 3.4 3A 3.6 27

1.7 .6 .7 7 .102 1.149 1.121 W2 12.4 13. 71 139 1no

66717. . W- 64 903 I= lw 21 2.1 U 2.2 2.3 2.3tA8. 7. 364 - 50- 2 612 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 2.2 2.

vm 87 l6-~ 644 576 541 6.2 SA4 52 &17 &131

1U450.60. 4.542 4.75 4.735 2.V 3A 9 33 . 4.0P4247.66.6 7.14 3.192 1.123 41 4.3 4.5 4.68 4 4.8

OCCUPAIOW

I. p1638 6662 746 733 IA 1.7 1.7 7.7 Is 1A1~~~64 68 6 6~ .4v2 1.46 1.3 SI 3.0 &a 33 SI SI

63 PC3 572 &1 4 3.7 W. . .

W: YW W1.192 129 1.416 &1 3.4 IL 64 7.1 731..45.0.665212 234 2S2 6 3.7 7.1 3. 3 72

75.06. 762 ~f - 6.W" 7.7.6 4.48 410 4314 42 4.0 4.0 4.A 42 43I- IA.41 I-3 - 47 4- . * 5

2D7950 1 27 SI 7.1 S S 2.2 4.~5050 34 m 034 0 72 3.5 ?A35 5 77w 62 903 3A 210 &a 4S 1 4.5387 01 5m &1 SI0 SI S 41 42

M5966~33 542 402 3A 4 SI 4.0 4.3 6&M 9479426. .1 3.27 3429 4.1 as S 41 4.2

T ='on ____ 2 215 2B 3.2 2A SI &2 21 Uo36IA .86.5 66742 7I.9 1A12 1.3 4.3 4.7 43 5.1 V

* 6 46 6 .216 137 210 2.7 2.3 19 2.1 2.3 2s26.m5 1257 1114 &39 S 26 2.7 SI 41 42

3 5 1 6419 43 2 2.1 2O 2.3 2.2 22 IS

3-1 W,6 ".76. y -I1-7 w_____ m4 3 165 65 &. 9A4 &5 SI 6*

T..d wv-m ~ 1. - W. 0"h". 001.A

dM M, -A.. M3 .of. W6M

Tle AI ouraon or mplomen

Fe. J- Falt Fel OL Now. Dec WL Fe&

2107 32 20M1 200W 200 2000 2000 237m a a 07

L=et &M 2.11 I'= 1.2t .53n I'M 2t I7'3, weeks1 - 117 IC tMM 17 1 1 1

ISe egas SF 327 aL 3n 7 71. 73 73 31 ate

treaghamoner 10Ms 12 12 71 12. 72A 71 17 11

192. "m 01 IM. 750 1921 7921 v43 70A 50

1M *- 5 .b4 40.4 45 W3. 43 45a aS 4". 435 471so . "I 37.7 M15 3V7 921 a 31 A s75 22 32 501

7566I36 , 73. 1? 12 721 ;21 I 2 721, I2 732.

HOUSEHOLD0 DATA

TaWl A-?. 1.4714 744for l477744

oft-t757,b #42)

HOUSEHOLD DATA

NOt mOfln.Sy N42t~d Sees-y -om

2M 2DGI 2001 242 242 200 2DS 2ml =I7

NUMBE OF UNEMPLOYED

-b- Wp & 5* -3.JM 3 1406 3.3W 2A14 2.444 2.501 2.514 2.742 245Ot WV5477bYQ 1.134 7247 2w4 m2 05 477 47 I=4 445No47~. 44 - 7.447 won4 LED 7.A= 2=4 1.2 .7 .7 EP.7545- .4 j~ 1.291 1.ED 1.451 (,MI :A2 (A (" 1.,71 ( WP444477.S477S 40 4 472 (7 () (7 () ' ()

77 #14 42 57W 415 782D4 E94.474 up_- 2.44 7* 1 I.= 7.54 1*4 1*4 .04 'AVN4707*4 3547 378 327 442 34 424 4IN 444 372

PERCENT7 DISTR24Ufl0

742 100 7420 742 10110 '420 7420 10. I42U 740.*bl4*P.o.*o7s~y(4.- 44. 57.7 572 45.5 44. 44 4.7? 45.4 47.0. *474 77474 114.2 248 14. K44 I4" 75.5 14. 17.2 15.4747047;777 ~ .--.. 3D.. ~ 44 27.9 313 42U 240 24.8 24. 24. 42.

h444 12____________ 12 7.4 720B 73.1 7IC7 744 13 14,0 13.71.N& 42 427 302 54.5 324 3.A 44 42L7 42L3

&~4757 &.7 5.1 .4 7.2 70 4.5 7.4 &2

UNEMLYED AS A PERCENT OF THE0774240 LAO FORCE

-m lb.5- 2.f R W W L 4 2.1 Is 7.7 7.5 7A 10 2.00 ~ A 0 .5 .5 .5 .5 A5 .5is2 . IA 1.4 7.4 7.3 .4 1.3 I 7.47...sm ~~.3 1 5 . 5 2 .

Tafte A-L Rasge Of4..74 7504444W 747dU1 o la

Jeh F Ff 03. ~ 44

L'I Il ml ml ml ml ml ml E

4 l1.0 7.0 7.7 A4 A a4 1.0 7.1U-2=b .4644k474 644474 Ob.4 m47(7. *747

22 2. X3 1.9 1.7 10 70 I., 2

I~ o m m . 4. 4..I7 4.4 41 &1 4.0 40 425U4TW OA db-ad.4."P47l.47

W b VA4.A 4s 4.0 ) ('3 (7() ' )

.N 91 - t 474dW70.4. 7.9 ('1 ) 0) )() (1)

7 oft pd."7441 In24 am - - - * l= 4f. h-7 W V wf I .70.14 4479442a4444si -4454 Wp -57 -Vd_7 .4 944*5f-1*.5.

a 9W*bftr5ob 4mbfd94*5intp.3. No=wo4 0*5. 141115741'940:= 1..

Ag -W sex Qbs alorna.)

Fd - F.& Fb 2m MI j

TK le6Y....9. 5.740 5.M5 5.M3 4. 3 4.0 40 42 42is . 24.Y- - 22D 2115 2.167 11.8 8 9.1 92 9.8 92

18516 1.162 1.14 1.321 132 12A 3.0 &31 1X. 1316.517=.1 S16 854 550 15.6 151 1.4 I52 17A 172

18551..9..... -5 as5 .8 550 IS 1 1.1 IA1.4 ' 1 115 112o20 1.5 14246 'm A 7.4 62 6 70 72 72

25 y- d 5.51 MR78 3.75 &2 229 3.0 3J2 52 32256415 3.58 3.M8 346 5.0 &G 11 3.0 32 1. 255614 . Y-.. 554 5W5 511 ZI 22 2.0 22 2V 23

bfI,16l d-081____ a__ 346 3&M 3.18 420 22 40 42 4.3 42160256 1465 1234 I4 101 5.4 5.5 &7 15i 10

ISO 55716 O16 m9 O 14.2 &4 122 14.1 '52 5100517-1........................ 256 35 1116 172 1725 164 2D5 6

2., 56 358 353 IS 1'07 112 1. 112 15.1256416...W 545 554 C2 72 73 72 72 72 u2

25y - 12815 157 I12ll 2.2 2.2 &2 3-0 & 22025 655 5.18... 1465 127 LM I219 22 Lo 2. 2.2 &1 32055,- d 274 303 5. V LIP Z9 3a Le

W855I$ Y5 -2 2.705 5.73D 2.745 4. &. 4A 421 4.1 4.211102451 .- I215 571 as0 5.4 l.4 5.a &. L5.165155. -- 52 48 M4 5 1 11 A 12.3 15.5 12.8 11low5177. 221 219 250 423 122 &4 &52 141 157

le . 19 1 279 574 208 112 1 12 115 1 12 11 5.72 0 N Y- 1.. . 513 17 42. 72 L3 6.3 & 7 V. 5.1

25 y-.01 . -. 1As M9 1275 &1 22 5.1 30 .2 M.26 b58 Y16 1.451 125 1243 &1 5.1 32 M. U. 5

55 Y d 250 1 20 1 28 5.1 22 2.7 Z.4 2.2 1 .7

TaW4 A-10. P811 not8 In the166 force .5 swi tdtpie byn564d81. s noS 11.58557 awd

Fk F66 Fb Fkb N& Fkb

MWT I THE LABOR FORCE

T05,55MI 1. I1- 611,8723 GV.75 25.58 252310 4546 43%M7P5561.455521514 w8j6431 4=6 1,743 1271 5.55 2558

S.8d.46 l5l6 I. ~ 65 .k27 14 077 LM I. 613 007 M2

55804 .1515 M1 WKI05p.6 - -- 262 28 15 ISO 155 1039211.5655 tI- 28.l11 0 1.011 12= 415 427 554 623

UULTW5E JOBHSOLDERS

To8.i-afto6I.Mr. - - 7.735 7TAM 427 3.55 358 3.803P~d4 Fl 5A is 5.7 5e 5e $37

IN j8591. 51 *j1 6.0- 4=4 4A& 2.45 Z.455 146 1.75P8I~5661JAMII

51 14 1A7 7 4 08 1.131 1 .168

I kk15.56 58ml 56168 .151 6 02M5FM o*. 4.6288 ft -t Pat16.6 16P. l k .2 v55566.1 500816MW5*1.l1.565 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d Pm8*06g5. 511 66 42l516151*4.I1

2d 60A5 8*8 6 5* 1*4 1655 IN 6.5 h 85 tw 5816694 40* 58161 84.l51.108269,51 66h

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA

Ei9rA@LMHMEM DATA ETAUIUt DATA

TM B1-I. onnio.. 89 m.1811 94 l.8.by ld.8

kauyFah Dac. J2. . Feb, Now10. . .8. Feb.2860 2W 2DlP 20919 2W 20 286 2 IP 261

Toal. ...... ... ........... .... 128,870 135.773 120081 130.647 130.482 131.789 131,94 131.97 12.102 12M27

1b4N.. . .. ................. 108=28 111.954 109,M9 109=00 110.088 Il.= 111.437 111,443 I11.808 111,99

Goodsepodebg .................... 25.033 25468 25. 24.947 25.834 28.889 2s.3 25.8 25.639 25.8

Wf . .. ....... ............- 521 541 537 638 533 842 541 540 548 551Mw kft ................. ...... 44.3 43.3 43.1 41.3 45 44 43 44 43 42Cw c * ,g,,......... . ...... 80.4 78.8 78.8 78.8 81 80 78 78 79 79

... . ..e....... 29.1 314.2 315.3 317.4 2M6 308 311 311 318 321Pe644e86p4ste .. 103.2 10420 100.0 100.8 111 108 109 107 109 109

C4o.0.. .......................... ..... 8.120 &M60 8.34 8.369 6.618 8.740 a,734 6.717 8.9m 8.881Q.w d 4go8. ... -.... 1,417.5 1A.092 1.476.4 1.473.5 1,481 1,517 1 =3 1.527 1,04 1,W4

Hwaq consbi09lo1,sr% . . 758. 828. 771.2 7742 85 82 882 867 eg 11i898 3848.3' al 4,24 4.125.5411.4 4,04 4.33 4=9 4=33 4.430 4,43

. IS=8 18= 18,117 18.06 10.473 18,37 I8.30 1&.312 1L218 18.122P~ic.k w - .. 12,635 12=3 12.361 1228 12.68 12,09 Z564 115 2.442 123511

DweU goods 11.805 11,34 10.87 M097 11,088 11.082 11,00 11,0 10.949 10.PeO& wo5 .,. ...... 7,08 7,03 7.418 7,34 7,92 7.942 7.84 7.920 7,454 7,411

Lumbs NWwo 818.2 801, 7876 7803 83 812 887 am 788 786Fwkr 5nd93.7V 53 58. 48,6 540. 083 1559 094 882 047 941

Sbone. day .4 N as Om'8A83s......... . 548. 57.3 848.3 848.4 087 094 043 W8 067 098089yn98i0,A,801e 69..... 88.8 6842 6f72 8Ow. 68 691 68 683 677 87

Fadcoledet8al PM&8....... .......... 1,524.0 1,05. 1,518.9 1.030 1,2 1,3 I ,53I 1.0,= 1,017 1.004h68

40N489y and quk .... Z134.7 Z2.8 1182 Z2.092 Z131 Z2.14 2.137 Z124 Z.118 Z.107

Call Mslw 4488O. e*eswi ........ 380,6 353.9 380. 3012 368 361 301 302 303 393Bac68t mid V Wb0~. rs9.. 1,603 I.7MA, 1,732. 1,71&.8 124 1.719 1.728 1.728 1.724 1.713

Eb68o.* le d moshsmora 844.7 686, 686.6 6554 845 887 684 88 65 688T = '- *nQ.%XnW9 - - -1958 1.915.6 1,783.3 1,787.1 1,808 1,812 1,514 1.813 1.757 1.768

WilsMa W M 1.1 86.9 m2 8003 160= 891 m6 S68 940 883A0D46481 &W Pails - . 452 457.8 454.8 45489 453 458 455 458 452 4w3

b991mw db38 ...... t 84.1 801.0 8512 85M. 844 847 888 851 883 882mi~l ratt384.392A 3811.7 SK6. 388 395 34 393 391 388

Nwebded of ..... .... ....... 7,337 7,280 7.210 7.170 7.8 38 7,3115 7=,0M7= 7,06 7.219-mjdn ok 5=09 5.M 4842 4.911 5.105 5.041 "IS1 4.408 4.86 4

Tobacco Prduts9L 382 38L2 36.7 37 37 37 37 36 35T88nU.0w 8 m cai--- - -------- . 54M. 52L.9 518.1 10 848 838 838 028 82 813A4,Wd d 0- 888 p1.8.2.M - - 8364.2 816.8 611.6 868 033 630 82 2 15pw w o p*n - 61-2 W88. 651 84823 SO 687 888 883 848P4 W' , .A88 - I,046.7 I1.863I1UV I.3 1&844 1 1,80 1.SSS 1,087 1,9854 1,0 1.848C,T, 4 844 .,553s. . I.A IW, 1.60 1,018.4 1,0M8.7 1,.031 1 d 1.84 1 A I.02 1 .018

P.d-. odPIx - 1272 125.4 125.2 124.8 132 131 130 128 128 128P,-b.. an ftc p1o..9 I. ... 010 s82" 984. 878.0 1,010 1,1001 m So1 m 877Lao, was banal 8.....,.. 75.3 71,6 68.7 SU, 78 73 72 71 70 69

IMO 160,9 7 0 104.86 105,70 184,68 I114 109.38 108.3 10848 108.87

Tr4uP8bn MW P~b 8 UW - ...... . .... OA"7 7.147 7,018 7.C28 6.83 7,044 7,08 7.036 7,077 7.105Tmw806dc n.. 4.424 4,641 4.518 4.528 4.479 448 4=58 4.581 4,971 4.58

2228.2i9 . . ~ m 218. 21M. 2122 22 219 22 217 216 216Loa td d pa.sI8 s ,98 .. s 505.3 512. 50.4 514.4 j8 40B 5w D SO 803

...... - ,1,78.7 1,80. 1.614.0 0,1.7 a,2 I A43 1,83 1,47 1880) 1,853wow8 5888I ,. - 8. 192. 194 ' 194. 186 008 MS 6 008 2D5 20

OWM PWm aon12.4 12_5 12.4 12.3 12 13 13 12 12 12T08b 4 - . 4837 4)776 473.0 47423 46 474 475 478 478 477

COC.T,.408A" OW .bfcLAO -- 2.448 2MW 2.801 2,04 Z458 2.487 2.487 2.08 2.36 2.512C.441048919U... 1,083 1,602,1,948 1,652, 1.58 1,A41 1,944 1,682 1,651 1,68

Elieb1. gas .o 6, =s- . 882 652,8 .I 851.3 88 886 882 802 888 888

110.1aa8.86 7,687 , - 7,=j 7=1 ,,oI, 7.01 7.083 7,0685 iAo4 7071D8.W* 4 .0., 4.1591 4WM 4.175 4.175 4,177 4=38 4=6 4.201 4.182 4.088

N9Ade 888.. .. . . 2.80 228 2.847 2.847 2.84 2280 2.807 S.68 Z.881 2,977

39

IMMB0U ENT DATA MSABL2SI6N DATA

746469-i. Entitloreve on no00n.m pymftl by Indusby-041mi4

On 0Omads)

W-Mby Fell D-0 Ja-l Fab Feb. 0. 90O,. Jan, Feb.P4.

20M_ mw_ 200 1P Moo 2O 2D 0O 2O 2DIP 201P_

086tae6..8.......4..... ............ . 2.- .440 23.914 22.7n 22.722 22.978 23.193 23"2 23,245 23.250 23=36Eko wd6441d 6600491to 965.1 102. 065.4 VAS6.8 2 I~ =~ I= 1.019 1,.016 1 013

G8641 n6666666086 6606 ......... .. 2.664,5 3.063.7 Z2.0~ 2,867 2,702 2.740 2.770 2.742 2,694 209Dopeofter st4 doe .... - 2,39 = 2,660.3 2=371 2,26&4 2.417 2-W0 2.419 2.411 2.354 2.3W7

P046. .3,471.0 87P 2.306 3M"6. 3.563 3010 3.01 3.=2 3.037 3.544A000,5111 df8160864nd 566 slathono 2,366.5 2.416.7 2.300 2.M9.1 2.394 2:431 2.43D 23 2.420 2.43

0w6.4199665966416lr ... 1094.3 1.1170 1 13.1 111.9 1.10 1.120 1,120 1,121 1,121 1,123Appa8rl 4 .40011-0Oy MM .. 1 145.0 =~0 1225A 1146 114 1.0 .211 1.217 4, = 122

F.8611,64nd11or06liffi4trnp Smee 1.007.7 1,102.7 1,142.3 1,123.7 1,102 1,126 1.13D 1,137 1.130 1.133EaI5g6186J6q 86 ad& iplcs......... 77.2 6,0605 7791. 70874.3 7992 8.073 6.,007 8111 V253 6 140

kf., 0660. w64610050 2 .093 3.=0 3:1029 3.066.4 3:021 3.07 3,064 3:06 %095 3100D

F90.10 416016596.6641IM6j66?4 7.5%4 7.64 7.618 7.635 7.624 7,636 7,647 7.661 7.676 7.602P0106 3M 277 3.745 3,742 2.754 3.717 3.737 3,736 3.747 3,751 3.702

Dep0ository 4061 2.051.0 2 =2 22.2 20306 2=00 204 .033 2.030 .3 .2C.00,0 1 rtm ............. .... 1,464.5 1.446.5 1,442.2 1,440.3 1 .465 1.446 1 .445 1.445 1.443 1.443

04111490 b906i0 .................. 244.4 Z57 236.4 23M 245 238 237 237 237 2360045qosfoy 6556000 .... ....... 807.9 6003 600 600.6 600 600 600 40 62 700

MO ppb~004 a 0d86666........ 330.0 321.5 222. MA 336 324 32 21 32 3300600117864O01101145y brlos0........ 719.2 772. 771.7 774.3 723 766 700 773 770 775

Hoh:Ik ad dome b stow660 t . ..... 23894 245.4 247.8 2002 238 248 248 250 250 2455,1 . .... ... ................. 2.3W6 2.=6 Z.360 2-W6 Z.373 2.35 2=6 2.362 2.366f 2A372

b86486o641466 1.8 151 1.5M 801A 9.0 1.606 1.561 1.587 1.585 1.589 1.57b -056.5.660.46.5 765.t, 3 776.9 774.8 775.6 707 774 775 M7 77 778Rea a. . ...........l.. .. ........ 1,451 10531 1.516 1,516 1.534 1.546 1,546 1.55 1.559 1.558

0SaA..~ 2............................. 396406 405666 36,996 40,448 39.614 40.696 40.766 45,707 45.666 40.9MAQ1450itka sevce8 ...6.........0....... 679.6 749.2 697.9 607.6 766 806 810 610 025 02Hotels ar56id Oher I . ........... 1.771.6 1.8607 1.0344 1*5. 1.86IA 1.024 1.93 1,948 1.948 1.05

Pamne er14 e........... ...... 1.....53771277z.3 1.36 1.02 i=7 5 i= 6 1.36 i= i 2 1.M 1=566.6,6166 .996 968 9,0. 94. 9610 9.11291 9023 9.751 9.742 9766

s.rA5 t. . ........ . 9662 1.002.3 9989 1034.0 1:060 1000D 1,004 1009 1,014 1:017Pamoral 6.8166 SWAM 6 .6 3,502. 3.9=0 3.52.4 3. 5110 3,M7 3661 36845 3.744 3,699 3.6Hat ** _ . ...... 2,3683 3,4232 3,111.1 3,101.7 3.30 3432 3.403 3.3M38 =.0 3.265

C0oop166 row16data006600866040.9 , 906.2 1,9959 I M*, Z.016.6 11906 1.066 1.902 I 996 2.000 2.015Auto 6611846. 861861 1ewmm akV........ 191.4 1,211.2 1.215. 4 1=~0 1,195 1=6 1.208 1.215 1=22 1,235

MW o.6.oo o ....... . ........ 3767 383.4 3797 376.3 364 366 366 383 364 383

M0800nkb .......... 624 '141.2 1031.4 1634.6 0.23 1620 9631 029 640 636AO ....... .6b16 6569 15172 1860 1,55.3 1M&68 .723 1.791 1.793 1 .797 1.167 I AKa . IA ...58................ 10.9 10,245.8 10,235.9 1061.8 10,079 10,191 10.2W8 10.M3 10.25 1029Ofices ard 9041661nieo fme otr 1.6 1,04.7 1*64.* 1*66. 1.914 1,950 1,953 1.900 1.867 1.972464008945 persoal arefaclftls ....... 1.783.4 1.799.6 1.796.1 IlW8 1.790 1,793 1.793 1.796 1*61 1.805Hospias ....... .. ............. 3.98546019 4666.6 4,066. 4,002 4.3 4,045 4,053 4.061 4M07

148116605., .865966 835mrm..... ...... W6 64386 637.0 0292 639 645 644 942 644 642Lmal0I. .. . 1.000.9 1,017.3 1,013.5 1,015.5 1.007 1.016 .014 1.015 1.016 1.2

E468611066 66650.6 2443.3 2.516. 2,372 "a542. 2,30 2,307 '.6 ,39 236 .1Social6406 w2. .... 9113 3,00062 3.043* .6 d 2 Z.912 3.019 3.033 3.004 3.002 3.077

Child 70.66440.9 . . 754 807* 800 1 &666 740 784 707 792 766 802603.eda cr .......W7 6446 836 647.7 807 836 940 945 949 851

......16 . . . . 912 102 9 664 106 103 104 104 104 166M864664*1690500886 . . .417.4 2437.5 241&8 2430.0 2,4369 .4 .5 2.450 2,450 2.40

E6UW1w6.46964 mootgo9690.56 23, 3.471.3 3,407.4 3.50"4 3.35' 3.463 3.471 3,486 3.406 3=Ellgln66.844545414064itatmlsr

410.. 97160 1.017.8 1.015-5 1,0187 664 1.015 1.015 1.021 1i.M 1 .033

40169.o0445rwputfio454166 . ...... 1,06.8 1,13U 1.13635 1,13&.7 1,077 1.120 1,137 1.136 1,144 1.1430846,160 .................. ..... 53.2 52.7 00.4 53.3 (1) (1) (I) (1) (1) (1)

G005911 ..16 ......................68.... 2D607 20,19 20.436 2DA45 2D.364 20.464 20.405 2D.430 36,00 20.53Fedral4 ; *-* - * .666 2.661 2.50 2,M0 2705. 2. 2,615, 2-W6 2.4114 2.16

Fed66"6.p601I65 1.3 1.7379 17377 1.7,157 1,85 70 1. 761 1.753 1.753" 1,753State ..- ...... . .... ..............- 4= 4,05 4*9 4,80 4,73641A . 4. 4766 4, 4.7Ed9icallon. 269. 2,106. 1.24.5 2.103.2 16 1,08 1*77 Ion 6 1.902 1,669

Z78086p859692L6. 2.751.4 2.753.1 2,7511.5 2.747 2,70 2.771 276 2,786 2.762Locl...................... ....... 13.177 13.380 13.102 13,361 12.666 13.64 13,042 1 3.1W0 3.125 12.052

6856006 .... .. - . . . 7*93.3 7.740.3 7,571.3 7,773. 7,300 7.39 7,37 7,367 7.40D 7.41608.0.19bow g ,69 . . . 5.484.0 U,19.4 0596.4 3.67* 5.611 5,693 9,60 5,713 5.728 5,736

The, s. -ntP0 lo a cpside b -51666616 go584 26965 0"I 6466. k5640o168. not s411 66986461y

66668646 006196866 which is ar1860 r646006 to ft 690.09066. and PFO46lh146UsQ.666FW 69 I 666 I80.6 0451ct to Oeraed f p665986l. I

ESTABLUk DATAwSai EN AT

Tabb 5,2. AeM . i MM .... ofpraodcw m p vtm wyrit

m pNI. nonfio V~ by bebd.by

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ I - F iJ ~ I l F

T.W~bt

OMNiu Ni

Cab~fnimpi

SUN.dewNicef -

UNM" U~ me musn. .... - -

Pomi 6- 0 bmt P.cFabi* -8 - - -

wd

al-cokW owio =

TONU"0n seo.e__Mo~ "U N _ _-_ _...

140d Ni p N oa -

34.4 1 34. 1 1 I 1 3.

Da mmo b dco wwk in ffN .ow N ffntk wmd

fs-kwmm *Nw '-- ~i I-o~ee U~ I*W ID t d*,.

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Tab S-1 Aw haty an weky eig11po on workra a pWal ea parol by Ilry

Avwage r rn AerW -M6 y earnin p

Indry Feb D- Ja Feb. Ftt9 D J Fk

20 2000 2001P 20 2 20019 201P

Towi prival ............ 813.28 $14.03 $14.09 114.15 $464.44 1479.83 $477.65 479.69son d . 13.64 1402 14.03 14.10 465.48 47800 48123 4822

Goodraduckg .. 1527 1567 15.61 15.64 614.8 631.50 624.40 617.78

Mnin .1720 17.17 1722 17.13 75852 770.93 771.46 715.li

Construction ..... 17.42 1821 18.20 18.22 674.15 686.52 66.14 677.78

MaNufba . 1419 1468 1461 14.6! 568.9 6482 5463 590.40

Dale goo . ................. 14. 73 15.26 15.15 15.19 62.13 634.83 621.15 616.71LUrta nwood p ...... . 11.63 11.96 11.94 11.96 4698.5 478.40 48924 4703

Fumilureandilie..... 11.51 1201 11.9 1205 459I0 48040 466.41 46272

so9w day. WWd0.oo p.0duow ...... 1 3.96 14.50 14.4 14.51 591.90 997.55 593.6 589.11pft"o MIN wam" ......s. . 12 1.6 .66 1"S5 7228 720.51 709239 097.18

OW0 5o 04 bwi.i* 69 o6 19.2 "922 19.5 1916 975.2 836.6 832A5 1238FW.Mad .W66 WN ......... 13.67 14.12 1409 14.11 5787 596.6 6 8 99R8 578,51

Irlstrad Ilnerandequipma ....... 1540 1804 15.9 1594 82.9 67689 66998 65832Elechaniardo lIel ecaquiprne 1372 1405 14.03 14.10 569.38 5306 57102 5i41

Tasportonequipne . ......... ... 186 19.70 1925 19.43 615.9 831.34 60.12 796.63Morveiesan de qupna 1903 20.36 19.75 19.96 856.35 851.0 80778 905.9

NWoa oo s.46. 69dp 6 14.41 15.0 1492 14.7 5413 161 61023 !1.7 7Tlmoe0ra poucts . 118 11.91 110.9 11.91 403.13 470. 49612 4364

Pr.ikt and 3 12.90 14.7 13.i 54242 51. 546 4 5aiFood ldranddolokt s.. 1223 12.6 124 21 50021 5256.2 16.96 10274

T prodcin -- -...--.. 1314 1354 136 1.77 69522 739.76 68741 783.0Tratns onpul ie 1025 11.63 180 116 44611 63106 63 63084

App"9 SM COW --------. -~62 9.83 9.21 9.24 9.22 339.5 336.83 334.49 333.20PoW oad 5.4 pad .. S.......... 1429 1I.6 1545 1&36 67.7 707.91 70!2 99.12

P.6416.9 and *. "" .. ... ***--.. 14.13 14.541 14.2 14.9 536.4 59641 548.54 5.6C46.llooh odoadwoo649 ". 17.67 18.33 19.24 16.46 750.96 791.86 79.5 784,55

P66$I. ,od W 0 .01005 . 20.8 21.99 21.84 22.10 986.1 666.2 999.77 1027-65se ran.d 69 . .. .p..a . ...... 1257 13.83 13.06 13.03 1.A9 53422 531.14 24 1

Le4910 a41490 WOW 66 6v. .... ... .96 1022 1029 1021 375.49 383.20 23.&44 376.70

5...r 0696m~... . .. . ....... . -... 13.11 13.4 3.64 13.71 427.39 443.76 44194 446.9

Tl.1q6o~o wid pbc 9k ......... . 16.99 1622 16.5 16.99 611,51 836.59 632.06 03.84

WhOMM.1.94. .......... ....... .... 14.91 15.59 15.%4 15.59 56.607 596.66 590.52 563.9

ftW949. ..... -9.35 9.65 9.8 9.99 26&48 279.9 270.6 274.91

Fnanceisurance amraesle .... 14.93 1532 1546 15.64 536.97 553.05 55501 56617

Ser v.-. . ......... . 1377 1429 1426 14.42 448.90 464.43 46383 461L5

P .pr@Nrninmr.ISee loot 1. tabl E82.

EXTAUU13I6Tr DATAEETABUS53ENr DATA

____ ____ p.kv*

cu" doom .... $13.54 $11.1 1&3.5 $14.02 $14.03 114.10 0.5Comm 116 3....~. 7.87 7A9 7.91 7.16 7.90 NA (3)oo&Voaxh I 1.1 15.57 10.6$ ISM1 1WO1 M05 .3

Lkt -- 17.14 3 7M 1 7.13 170$ 17,01 17.90 .3mbc~ 745 1&00 10.1 10.14 1W3 1&3 .014251 14.56 14.63 14.0 14.31 14.67 .66E.*,dgo~~s

4- 13A5 13.81 13.3 1113 1&.6 1416 .5

&W 1 OM9 &W 36-l 65 66 716uh6$6w. 14A 15.36 1We4 15.37 M48 30.57 A

3M84 - 4.12,l

I46 10.1 10.37 15.. t5.4 &Z.18 .

2 The CWAsw lsb , kd 3.Ir Euium Vbsd b( ov1*Q ll- at$1 3166 uam cmee Wbtm (cpw. b ued a dift oft = Ed81u-aY

o LNA. .168rPOW.p urn.4 kusu In O..* 1616 b p . *mfr

43

M8ABLIS4MDIT DATA MITABUS8IMMI DATA

Table W&. belao of W hc... Of W.W088hor - w oq..h.y.workers' o l llod.lho.l1~,M8 by bO887

(1082=100)

kdsyFetot. so nal o Fob. Fob. 00. No. 00 o. F

Goodwoduck48 .......................... 112.5 113,3 108.7 108.0 117.5 11.1 114.7 112.2 114.6 112.5

bMk*l9 ....................................48.1 51.1 10.3 58.3 51.0 52.2 51.1 50.8 52.1 51.8

Cos- ......... .. ..... ..... .... 632 173.7 198.8 193.2 188.5 1884 181.4 178.1 188.0 183.2

MaMARC8oirg . .... . .................. 105.8 1042 101.5 88.8 107.0 105.0 104.3 101.8 1822 101.1

Durablegoods ....- ...... 111.2 108.4 106.1 154.8 112.1 110.2 19.7 105.7 107.8 105.7Lwol and wood Wods ........... ...... MO3. 138.0 133.0 131.8 147.8 142-3 141.3 137.8 136.4 I37.?F-ithge, ad Fla,.. ................ I1S?.7 137.3 131.8 128.8 130.4 137.0 135.6 132.6 132.7 131.2

Stralk day,&dOUP UtS..... .........o8 I08. 188.7 154.0 1824 11.7 114.8 112.8 188.7 111.2 1881.8P.M.. d10......108 . . 2.1. 88.1 87 838 92.3 911.0 88.4 882 86.4 83"8108 ... l0 808000 71 07.3 85.1 04.4 72.1 88.0 88.8 88&7 02.2 80.

IF ee o140 .,lO,. - ..... .. 101 118.4 118.7 114.4 12.7 120.8 118.8 118.8 118.9 I154Incl8s101 oclmly&ol8 o~omo......108.5 105.3 154.5 182.2 1084 104.6 104.4 102.8 108.0 10159

Bo1 ricalO W skiab1cal QAA 8..t 107.1 110.3 I882 1048 107.5 182 108.0 107.1 107.1 10.17IOI,0II08O. ,pl..M ........ 0...15 1180D 111.7 111.3 127.0 12. 128.4 IM. 112.6 111.8

l~84S WdIS8..... ....... 178.8 151.9 140.7 148.8 170.9 181.0 157.8 144.4 141.3 140.2I088Lnrw108 OW8 rltd p8,08 ........... 74.8 74.5 73.8 74.3 74.3 73.0 73.8 72.9 73.8 74.1

ma0ell.Ooourm mt~f ......8A . 1 5 88......I s 0.1 882 88.0 102.2 99.5 88.0 07.9 80.4 97.4

N.M."081 98040 - * - ...... 88..2.3 872 8.0 93.3 100.0 87.8 07.0 95.4 88.5 94LOFwd Wl W0988.---.8 - . 112.8 115.9 112.7 I00.5 t17.0 IMS. 115.8 1142 11&1I 114.4Tb p.005 ........ - 03. .O... .l6 48.0 4.3 82.3 48.2 47.8 47.8 45.8 44.0

7.10 .A P-o80. - ... 792 75.5 73.3 70.8 88.2 77.2 75.4 74.7 73,7 71AApare .. 1oa w berar ft 50------07.8 52.5 02.I 51 A 05 5425 54.0 1W.8 83.7 5I2Papr rdoelood duc - ---------------105.1 182.8 182.0 100.8 108.7 103.8 103.4 101.3 182.8 101.7

NO and III - - --- * - -. 128. 132 1182 1111,5 120 12.8 121.5 125.2 121.5 12D.01080 8 p0 ~ -I2.2 101.4 882 982 IO6 101.0 100.3 88.4 10.1 88.2

P88o1eSM Oll O..W8.98 .. 82.= 1 5789 59.1 882 88. 820 OLD 182 82.5 54.1Rubber d9.pw-18p1050 . 147.8 142.6 1402 1311. 148.3 14425 143 138.3 141.0 1382Leab- ald bW- oP.1o8t ............31.8 30.2 282 28.8 32.8 382 31.0 28.6 208 29I

0.884818 - - - -... 11.2 182 1820 184.2 15.2 197. 188.0 107.9 10&4 I88.

V~*.kVd 10.8 1382 I30.1 13D.4 132.1 133.3 13.0 132.2 13&3 132.7

PA U& ...... - ---- 138.4 149.8 I39A I3LO 144.8 144.8 M45.4 144.4 146.3 14&5

Fo8UMU . W,0* ndrea 0101., ... 13725 139.3 M4A 138.2 MIS. 13825 1302 I48. 140.3 141.2

- -- 2822 20.8 204.3 2882 20.7 21L021 210.9 1211.0 211.08 211.2

p . PrOedremyI S" b*.m 1. law B-Z

ESTABUSHMENT DATA

T.bl. W4. Dl.sionindexes of emplm chan, s y adjui

r-9-mm

1998 .1999 ..2000 ..............

Owe 34nonth spa

1997.1908 .1999..2000 ..............2001 ..............

1997 .1998.1999.. -2000 ..............2001 ..............

Owe 12-nnh spar1997 ......19981999......20002001

Ome 1-monhaspan

1997 .

1956990 .991997.

2000.2001.

19 7. ..

19992000.2001 ............1997 -

29991

ESTABUSHMENT DATA

673 63 69.7 69.5 I7.1 701 74 79.5 701 694 70469.7 673 673 65 63.91 62.5 161.5 1 6 1 61.01 591 59.8 16.160.3 58.3 57.6 594 5.6 60.5 61.9 61.0 6.6 829 mW53.264.9 638 608 Sea 579 521 P54.4 P59

Maratukrin pays619, 139 b*Abulsri

Pdvate nonfarrr payrolls 356 ndualr

1 Basdondw seonal adjused de. for, 1, 3-, ard 6-noh spa NOTE Figue a th peicent 61 Ofndustrie with emphanrl66and uau dla or th. 12-onih sr D e d n areal o-06 V *9 ph. Of the indtries allh unch.ngd emPlyme.

th phe 50 percent Ircats an equal tbalae bee idwr withP . prainiar k-crasin and decresin eMlmn.

Charts to accompany statement of

Katharine G. AbrahamCommissioner

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Friday, March 9, 2001

Employment in total private nonagricultural establishmentsOver-the-month change, 1999 - 2001

Seasonally adjusted, In thousands500

400

200

100

0

-100

-200

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 9, 2001

I 1 r 3?It 4 OP 4*A

0 Emu-U"

Employment in manufacturingOver-the-month change, 1999 - 2001

Seasonally adjusted, in thousands100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 9, 2001

4

Employment in manufacturing industriesOver-the-month change, February 2001

Seasonally adjusted, In thousands

of .4 1e, dpl ,

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 9, 2001

Average weekly hours in manufacturing, 1988-2001

Seasonally adjusted42.5

42.0-X

41.5

41.0

40.5

40.0-A 40.0 Feb. 2001= 40.6 hours

3an-88 3an-90 3an-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00

Note: Shaded area denotes recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 9, 2001

Over-the-year percent change in average hourlyearnings, 1990-2001

Seasonally adjusted

4.0

3.0-Over-the-year change

2.5 - AA A l for Feb. 2001 = 4.1 percer

2.0Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00

Note: Shaded area denotes recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 9, 2001

Unemployment rates by county in New Jersey

Provisional 12-month averages for 2000

(New Jersey= 3.8 percent; U.S.= 4.0 percent)

SDURCE: B.mabeStudAnlacal Arts Usmployme SandsicksMarch 2001

NOTE: Dat . bmed e. prlmiay 12-eth ar I

appresimmdy May & 2001.

I0.0% or over7. 0to 9.9%~

*600/6 6,9%/5.00/0- 5.9%

E]I 3.00/- 3.9%

H 10/0 - z90%E1.9%/ or below

NEW JERSEYLabor Force Data by County, Provisional 12-month Averages for 2000

* High unemployment rate counties are found in the Southern part of the state, where

tourism and agriculture are important industries.* Two Northern counties that have experienced losses in manufacturing jobs and have

high concentrations ofminorities also exhibit higher than average unemployment.

* Low unemployment rate counties are predominantly in the Western and Central parts

of the state.

Labor Force Employment UnemploymentLevel Rate7.344 5.8

13,838 3.16.642 2.9

10,290 3.9

3.961 8.7

4.704 7.4

17.731 4.8

5.023 3.816,457 5.81,2 1.75,459 32

13.030 3.2

10.337 3.3

6201 2.3

8.511 4.0

11,673 5.0

1,420 4.4

3.725 2.2

2.258 2.9

10.760 4.01.649 3.2

U.S. DepatretOw f all-Bweeo of Labor Stadsnca,

Local Area unnvicyme44 SladsucaPMrch 2001

County

Atlanbc County. NJ

Bergen County. NJBurngton County. NJCamden County. NJCape May County. NJCumbeland County. NJEssex County. NJGloucester County, NJHudson County. NJ

Hunterdon County. NJMercer County, NJMiddlesen County. NJMonmouth County, NJMerrin County, NJOceaen County, NJPassai County NJSaem County, NJSomerset County. NJSusnex County. NJUnion County. NJWarren County, NJ

126.550446,705227.646262.49845.43563.864

372.925132,478

283.193

69.914

168.641410.640310.478265,053213.607

233,53832.530

170.33976.842

269.10151.534

119206

432.867

221,004252.208

41.474

59.160355.194127,455

266,73668,692

163.182

397.610300.141

258.852205.096221,86531.110

166.614

74,584258.341

49.885

53

NEW JERSEYSeasonally Adjusted Statewide

Labor Force Statistics

Month Labor Force Employment Unemployment

Level Rate

1998

Jan 4.165.138 3.967,222 197.916 48

Feb 4.152.852 3.959.195 193,657 4.7

Mar 4.144.944 3.950.400 194.544 4 7

Apr 4.146.341 3.947.264 199.077 4.8

May 4.141.002 3.950.321 190,681 46

Jun 4.133.688 3,945,029 188.659 46

Jul 4.128.871 3.940.596 188.275 46

Aug 4.125.663 3.940.142 185.521 4.5

Sep 4.136.146 3,948,654 187,492 4.5

Oct 4.143,365 3.956.857 186,508 4.5

Non 4.148,087 3.959.057 189.030 4.6

Dec 4.163.423 3,973.049 190.374 4.6

1999

Jan 4,179.224 3.987.209 192,015 4.6

Feb 4.189.882 4.001.057 188,825 4.5

Mar 4.205.447 4.006.111 199.336 4.7

Apr 4.213.970 4.014.756 199.214 4 7

May 4.216.722 4.013.185 203.537 4 8

Jun 4,218,690 4,015,577 203.113 4.8

Jul 4.223,781 4.022.508 201.273 4.8

Aug 4.218.454 4.021.093 197.361 4.7

Sep 4,207.290 4,015.470 191.820 4.6

Oct 4.203.570 4.017.039 , 186.531 4.4

Nov 4.195.747 4.016.015 - -.. ,7.732 43

Dec 4.190,871 4.017.403 173.468 4.1

2000

Jan 4.171,225 4.014,086 157,139 38

Feb 4.167.808 4.007,463 160,345 38

Mar 4.162.672 4.011,896 150,776 3.6

Apr 4.166,187 4.012.688 153.499 3.7

May 4.168.471 4.013,251 155,220 3.7

Jun 4.169.074 4.014,697 154.377 37

Jul 4.166,934 4.013.575 153.359 3.7

Aug 4,182.682 4.023,868 158.814 3.8

Sep 4.197.873 4,037.564 160.309 38

Oct 4.214.409 4.053.940 160.469 3.8

Nov 4,234,038 4,071,388 162.650 3.8

Dec 4.252.271 4.091.633 160.638 3.8

2001

Jan 1 4,250,978 4,098.429 152.549 3.6

U.S. Departent of Laborpreliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics

Local Area Unemployment StatsticsMarch 2001

0