s eptember 23, 2009 jim casey industrial forecast luncheon
TRANSCRIPT
September 23, 2009
Jim Casey
Industrial Forecast Luncheon
Industrial DevelopmentCurrent Market Trends - Houston New spec project pipeline is shut down There is reasonable tenant leasing activity, but
commitments are slow There has not been major give-backs of space Generally, the markets are declining slightly, but pretty
stable Need to see job growth to generate meaningful
absorption
Values have declined; but little volume to establish values
Lenders terms have shifted significantly; they don’t want to make new loans right now
Equity is waiting on sidelines for more clarity on values Effects of long term debt roll-overs yet to come REIT’s are recovering, raising equity
Capital Markets
Northwest Largest and most diverse Oilfield services, computer industry, furniture, general goods Modest amount of big new space Sub Market is in balance
Houston Submarkets vary significantly
Southwest Fort Bend County is one of
the fastest growing countiesin the country
Electronics, engineering, oilfield services
Several new projects delivered in 2008 / 2009
Proximity and access to residential areas is key
East Most forward looking
submarket Petrochemical
commodities, container traffic
Big projects delivered; need to see new major increases in are housing to absorb the space
Long-term factors should promote growth, but near-term is going to be difficult
North
Proximity to IAH is key Freight forwarding, oilfield
services Export and import
activities New international cargo
routes developing
Summary Houston industrial market is trending
down, but the slope is shallow Need to watch job losses;….. will there be
job gains in 2010? New construction pipeline has slowed to a
trickle Houston should out-perform most of the
country long-term