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S C H O O L O F E N V I R O N M E N T

Determining Volcanic Risk in AucklandJan Lindsay

University of Auckland

Graham Leonard, Natalia Deligne, Tom Wilson, Richard Smith,

Ross Roberts, Elaine Smid + others!

Kilauea, 3 months agoTVNZ artist’s rendition of the start of an

Auckland eruption, 2012

SCHOOL OF ENVIRONMENT

DEVORADetermining Volcanic Risk in Auckland:

• Multi-agency, transdisciplinary collaborative research programme,

started in 2008

• DEVORA researchers collect and integrate geoscience, volcanic

hazard, and risk and social data

• Primary focus is Auckland Volcanic Field, some consideration of

disruption from distant volcanoes

• Aims: improve risk management and business decision-making, make

Auckland a safer place

• Core funding from EQC and Auckland Council

• Jointly led by University of Auckland and GNS Science


Intradisciplinary: working within a single discipline.

Multidisciplinary: people from different disciplines working together, each

drawing on their disciplinary knowledge.

Crossdisciplinary: viewing one discipline from the perspective of another.

Interdisciplinary: integrating knowledge and methods from different disciplines,

using a real synthesis of approaches.

Transdisciplinary: creating a unity of intellectual frameworks beyond the

disciplinary perspectives. Involves not only multiple disciplines, but also

non-academic participants (e.g., land managers, user groups, the general public)

in a manner that combines interdisciplinarity with participatory approaches.

Alexander Refsum Jensenius, http://www.arj.no/2012/03/12/disciplinarities-2/

Trans WHAT???

VERO presentation, Wednesday 18 June 2014DEVORA

Auckland lies some distance

from the plate boundary

Assessing hazard in Auckland must consider a local Auckland

Volcanic Field eruption, as well as ash fall from a distal volcano

It hosts an intraplate volcanic field …….. and receives ash from distal volcanoes


• ~53 small “monogenetic” basaltic centres

• Intraplate (not related to subduction)

• Active from ca. 200,000 to 550 yBP

• Lies beneath Auckland, pop. ~1.5 million

Auckland Volcanic Field

from Lindsay et al. 2016


Maars or explosion craters (e.g. Lake Pupuke, Orakei basin, Onepoto Domain)

Types of volcanoes

Scoria/cinder cones (e.g. Mt. Eden, Mt. Wellington, Mt. Albert)

Ukinrek maars, 1977.

Photo C. Nye ADGGS

R. Russell ADFG

Tuff cone,

North Head

Heimaey and Surtsey,

Iceland, 1973 and 1963


• Edifice formation (explosion crater, scoria cone, fissure)

• Base surges (fast moving clouds of ash, gases and debris)

• Tephra fall (fine ash as well as larger particles)

• Ballistics (large pieces of lava thrown out of the vent)

• Lava flows (magma erupting effusively; ocean entry)

• Gases (mostly H2O, CO2 and SO2)

AVF hazards

Heimaey, IcelandUkinrek, Alaska C. Nye ADGGS R. Russell ADFG

Edifice and base surges

tephra


AVF hazards

Tropical Visions VideosHVO/USGS

Kilauea is a great analogue for Auckland, in

terms of lava, ballistics, tephra and gases

HVO/USGS

• Edifice formation (explosion crater, scoria cone, fissure)

• Base surges (fast moving clouds of ash, gases and debris)

• Tephra fall (fine ash as well as larger particles)

• Ballistics (large pieces of lava thrown out of the vent)

• Lava flows (magma erupting effusively; ocean entry)

• Gases (mostly H2O, CO2 and SO2)


Analogue eruptions typically last from a few weeks to a decade

Duration of a future eruption

Heimaey Iceland: 7 months (1973)

Paricutin, Mexico 9 years (1943 -52)


Photo by Shane Cronin

Distal ash


Before DEVORA

• Research on the AVF was ad-hoc and scattered.

No integrated volcanic hazard and risk projects

such as DeVoRA existed.

• The 1993 Allan and Smith hazard summary

remained the most up to date information. Volcanic

risk was only touched upon in passing. Half-million

more people now live in the potential risk zone.

• In 1999 five eruption scenarios were described

qualitatively in an ARC report.

Inaugural meeting, October 2006

Official launch, 6 Nov 2008


DEVORA organisation

Theme I: Geological Model

• Where is magma coming from?

• How fast will magma travel to surface?

Theme II: Hazard Model

• What are likely styles and hazards of future

eruptions?

• How does eruption style depend on substrate and

environmental factors?

Theme III: Risk and Social Model for Auckland

• How will each hazard affect people and

infrastructure?

• What are the risks to people and infrastructure?

• How can these risks be reduced?

Phase 1: 2008 - 2015


1. We are confident in knowing the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF)

2. Our diverse society knows, understands and trusts our science

3. People will behave appropriately in a volcanic crisis

4. People understand and appropriately mitigate risk and consequence in

language/formats that suit their needs

5. Auckland Council, Businesses and individuals have anticipated,

prepared for and are able to respond and recover - planning

appropriately

6. DEVORA supports 'Resilient Auckland'

7. Auckland continues to thrive following any NZ eruption

8. Our science has wider benefits

9. Auckland is linked in to other major hazard programmes, aligned to

DEVORA

10.We are confident in knowing other volcanic threats to Auckland

DEVORA aspirational

outcomes

Phase 2: 2015 - “DEVORA 2020”


Annual DEVORA

planning cycle

The Master “ideas” spreadsheet

The annual budget

Steering Committee

Steering Committee

Statement of Work

(March)

(November)

325 entries

325 work packages, ~200

completed, ~60 on the go,

~60 are ideas


DEVORA research

highlights

Molloy et al. 2009; Shane and Zawalna-Geer 2011; Zawalna-Geer et al. 2016;

Hopkins et al., 2015; 2017; Leonie Peti & Valerie van den Bos – underway!

Tephrochronology


Estimated minimum frequency of tephra fall from local and distal volcanoes in Auckland over the last 11,000 years

Frequency of tephra fall

Volcanic Source Minimum frequency

Okataina Volcanic Centre Once every 3,000 years

Taupo Volcanic Centre Once every 1,300 years

Mayor Island Once every 9,000 years

Taranaki Volcanic Centre Once every 3,000 years

Tongariro Volcanic Centre Once every 2,200 years

Auckland Volcanic Field Once every 3,000 years

Total – all sources combined Once every 400 years


DEVORA research

highlights: AGES

- No obvious spatial progression of eruptions

- some alignment to know faults

- A number of temporal patterns

- Oldest dated centre 193 ka (Pupuke)

- An increase in the rate of volcanism since 60 ka

- 48% of eruptions have repose periods <1000 yrs

- 6 eruption ”flare-up” between 30-34 ka

- Apparent “coupling” of eruptions close in space and time

- Generally a complex eruption history

Gone from 15 to 40 of

53 volcanoes dated,

now one of the best

dated volcanic fields

in the world


Approach A:

55 eruptions over 200,000 years.

Recurrence rate = 1 eruption every 3,600 years.

Approach B:

Increased eruption rate since 60,000 years. Using this time period:

Recurrence rate = 1 eruption every 1,500 to 2,600 years.

(But within that time, repose periods have ranged from 50 to 10,000 years……….)

Likelihood of a future

eruption in AVF?

So……. No one number is adequate to fully explain hazard, but an

eruption is unlikely in our lifetime


Our research informs 8 DEVORA scenarios

Which are being used to assess impacts

using Riskscape (Deligne et al. 2017)

e.g. Scenario C:

Mangere Bridge


Results show:

• Power out to Northland for months

• Severe water shortages for a year

• Airport closed for 2-3 months

• 100,000 people will be displaced

• 11,000 will be left homeless

• Raw sewage will be discharged into both

harbours for 2-3 years.

Auckland electricity network outage map: 2-3 months after eruption

Impacts (Deligne et al. 2017)

Sectors investigated:

Electricity * Fuel * Roads * Rail * Port * Airport * Water supply * Wastewater *

Stormwater * Telecommunications * Building damage


Precursory earthquakes

Scenario F: Birkenhead

Cumulative proximal (A) and distal (B) deposits on day 160

PDC dynamic pressureNumber of ballistic projectiles with impact energy exceeding

2750 J at 2 different eruption time intervals

Josh Hayes et al (in prep)


DEVORA wider impact

o Involves >30 staff from 9 institutions

o Has supported/is supporting 25 PhD students

o Supported research leading to publication of > 225 papers (as of January 2017)

Led directly to the VORISA (Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia) project, funded by King AbdulazizUniversity, Saudi Arabia, 2011-2014 ($1 million pa for 3 years)


DEVORA PhD support

Completed

Nico Le Corvec

Ola Zawalna Geer

Lucy McGee

Heather Craig

Rebecca Fitzgerald

Rebecca Green

Daniel Blake

Gabor Kereszturi

Javier Agustin Flores

Grant Wilson

Emily Kawabata

Mary Anne Thompson

Marco Brenna

Jenni Hopkins

Current

Sophia Tsang

Alec Wild

Boglarka Nemeth

Josh Hayes

Nicole Allen

Josiah Ensing

Robert Pickle

Elaine Smid

Valerie van den Bos

Leonie Peti

April Foote

Lava hazard

Geochemistry

Seismic

tomography

GeodesyTephrochronology

Crisis decision

making


DEVORA Intern 2009

• In 2008, DEVORA began compiling the

DEVORA borehole database in order to map

the substrate.

• Used to determine the location of unknown

faults, locate holes for deep borehole

seismometers, and help us better understand the

extents of previous eruptions

Tracy Howe


• DEVORA now works with MBIE to increase the amount of

downhole data in the New Zealand Geotechnical Database

NZGD


DEVORA Postdoctoral

Fellow - 2012

Natalia Deligne

Now: Volcanic Hazard and Risk Modeller,

GNS Science


Stakeholder engagement

Steering Committee

AVF Contingency Plan updates

Exercises, meetings and workshops

Joint CDEMDEVORA Forum

2013

Nov 2017


Communication

Web page:

http://www.devora.org.nz/


Communication Fact sheets

Social

Media

Outreach and training

How do you capture 10 years of DEVORA in a tea towel?

That is something our talented artist colleague, Gavin Mouldey, was able to do, with a little input from us. Design includes:

*the names of all 53 Auckland volcanoes (size correlates to mentions in our DEVORA Quarterly Reports!)

*a complex magma plumbing system

*a maar-diatreme

*a tuff cone

*steep-sided scoria cone

*an ash cloud

since 2008

Thank you!

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