rystad energy - forecast for global shale - short
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7/28/2019 Rystad Energy - Forecast for Global Shale - Short
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This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this documen
is based on Rystad Energys global oil & gas database UCUBE, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be
used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discuss ions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.
This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this documen
is based on Rystad Energys global oil & gas database UCUBE, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be
used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discuss ions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.
This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this documen
is based on Rystad Energys global oil & gas database UCUBE, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be
used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discuss ions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.
A long-term global forecast for the
extraction of oil and gas from shale formations
Finding Petroleum, London, 10/10/2012
Per Magnus NysveenRystad Energy
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Presentation roadmap
Why is shale extraction so successful across North America?
What is the likelihood for replicating this in other regions?
How to get reasonable pre-drill estimates foreconomic recoverable shale resources?
Subsurface analysis of 200 promising shale formations outside North America
Surface analysis to estimate expected first commercial production and production profiles
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Ideal conditions also existed in the Late Cretaceous, with carbonates contributing to
improved brittleness of the shale, example: Eagle Ford and Niobrara
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The Cretaceous Rockies
provides sediment source
The cretaceous Western
Interior Seaway createsrich sediments, anoxic
conditions and calcite
deposits
Source: Ron Blakey, Colorado Plateau Geosystems, Inc.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/LateCretaceousGlobal.jpg -
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In North America, more than 20 unconventional shale plays are proved commercial,
most of these are oil or liquids prone, in a belt east of the Rockies.
Source: North America Shale Quarterly by Rystad Energy, published by Hart Energy
U.S. and Canada shale formation - Sweet spots are dark brown
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Paleozoic to Mesozoic oil
and liquid prone plays
east of the Rockies
thrust and fold belt
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Example Barnett shale: Well curves, company acreage and geologic potential
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0.0
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Months
Daily production
Cumulative
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0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Months
Daily production
Cumulative
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Months
Daily production
Cumulative
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Chart shows the number of assessed
shale formations by country. In total
260 shale formations in 53 countries
are covered.
*Note that Others include 17countries with one shale formation
each.
What we have assessed: Review of hydrocarbon bearing shales worldwide
*Others: Afghanistan, Mauritania, Norway, UAE, Thailand, Canada, Turkey, Yemen, Lithuania, Jordan, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, Ghana, Viet nam, Spain, Sweden, Romania
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Hart Energy
Assessed shale formations by country
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
PolandAustria
Azerbaijan
DenmarkMoroccoPakistan
NetherlandsQatar
TurkmenistanSyria
Nigeria
BoliviaKazakhstan
TunisiaRussia
Algeria
Saudi ArabiaColombia
South Africa
FranceUkraine
MexicoUnited Kingdom
Oman
KuwaitVenezuela
IndonesiaLibyaIndia
AustraliaArgentina
IranIraq
Germany
Others*BrazilChina
35 formations
assessed in China
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Out of 700 billion boe total economic-
ally recoverable, we estimate 100
billion is crude oil and condensate.
This estimate is about 50% of the
estimate made by EIA for technicallyrecoverable resources.
Outside North America, we estimate economically extractable shale resources to 700 Bboe
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Most promising exploration results is
reported from Argentina. No liquids
flow rate from fracked wells are repor-
ted from other countries.
Most limiting factor is geology. Thereis still no evidence yet that analogues
to the North American geology, with
homogenous, unfolded and largely
un-faulted, brittle and rich source
rocks, can be found in other parts of
the world.
The minimum geologic requirements
for commercial developments are:
>2% TOC >100 feet thickness
> 2000 feet depth
< 60% clay content
0,6 - 2,5 Rho
Homogeneity
Drill ability
Flat surface
Other limiting non-geologic factors arethe lack of capacity for completion
services, immature infrastructure, lack
of favorable regulations for leasing,
high taxes and nationalized oil and
gas industry.
We expect no significant commercial shale development before 2020 outside North America
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Oil and gas production 2020-2055 from shale formations outside North America (kboe/d)
kboed
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Production from shales may contribution 10% to global oil and 25% to global gas by 2040
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Global forecast 2010-2040 of liquids (left) and gas (righ), split by unconventional type (kboe/d)
UC b th ti l d t b
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Rystad Energy
Fjordallen 16, 0250 Oslo
www.rystadenergy.com
+47 24 00 42 00
Per Magnus Nysveen
Partner & Head of Analysis
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Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and
business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and
research products for E&P and oil service companies, investors andgovernments. Rystad Energy is headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with additional
business center locations in UK (London), USA (New York & Houston) and
South East Asia.
Rystad Energy Products for Unconventional Assessment
UCube
Global and complete, field-by-field database
NASQ
North American Shale Quarterly Report, published by Hart Energy
CanadaShale Newsletter
Free newsletter on Canadian shale
UCube - the unconventional database
http://www.rystadenergy.com/