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Matt Mackowiak

POL 321, Russia and the New States

Dr. Bilocerkowycz

4 November, 2015

On Thinning Ice: Russia’s Claims in the Arctic

Summary Outline

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I. One of Russia’s latest territorial claims is the vast and unforgiving Arctic. Highly

valuable for more than just natural resources, the region will bring a whole new set of

benefits to Russia, and will also open up the door to future dispute and controversy.

II. What is Russia doing in the Arctic?

A. Increased activity in the Arctic Council

B. Territorial claims

1. Claimed Sea of Okhotsk

2. Submitted claim to UN for Arctic Ocean

C. Build-up of fleet/infrastructure in Arctic

D. Military involvement and expansion

1. Russia opening more military bases

2. Map of bases

III. Why is the Arctic so important to Russia?

A. Oil and natural gas resources

B. Shipping lanes will open when ice melts

C. Putin needs to change the subject from Ukraine

1. Putin losing in Ukraine

2. Sparking arctic crisis may distract enough from Ukraine

IV. How is the international community reacting to Russia’s actions in the Arctic?

A. Russia chastised, called aggressive

1. U.S. rushing arctic modernization

2. Nordic countries uniting to strengthen hand in Arctic

B. Caused escalation

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C. UN analyzing legality of Russian North Pole claim

1. Law of the Sea Convention

2. Russia conducting more research for claim

V. What are the implications Russia’s involvement in the Arctic have on the future?

A. Russian aggression and expansion could bring about new Cold War

B. If Russia gets its way in 2035

1. One possible scenario

2. Doubtful of being actual plan

VI. Russia’s claims in the Arctic have caused much disturbance in the international

community. For Russia, the Arctic is a promising region for natural resources,

exploration, and military development, but for the rest of the world, Russian

expansion in the Arctic represents a rising threat to international security.

Russian politics have taken the spotlight on almost every major news outlet in the world

for the last few years. Whether it be Ukraine, Syria or the Far East, Russia has been heavily

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involved in several international affairs. All over the world, people have been fascinated with

Russia’s aggressive territorial expansion. One of Russia’s latest territorial claims is the vast and

unforgiving Arctic. Highly valuable for more than just natural resources, the region will bring a

whole new set of benefits to Russia, and will also open up the door to future disputes and

controversy.

What is Russia doing in the Arctic?

As global warming causes the polar ice caps to melt, it becomes easier for states to stake

claims on the resource-rich floor of the Arctic Ocean. Russia has drastically increased its activity

in the Arctic Council within the last few years, emerging as a self-proclaimed leader. The Arctic

Council consists of 8 members that are united in an intergovernmental forum that discusses

various issues in the Arctic. Such issues include search and rescue, oil spill response and

fisheries.1 The Council and Russia’s leadership within it is just one example of increasing

Russian expansion in the Far North.

In addition to the growing influence of Russia within the Arctic Council, Russia has

made significant territorial claims in the Arctic. In Eastern Russia, the Sea of Okhotsk has long

been in a strategic location for the extraction of oil and natural gas. In 2014, Russia submitted a

proposal to the United Nations for ownership of the sea that was later accepted by the body. The

acceptance of the proposal ceded 52,000 square kilometers of the sea to Russia, allowing for

Russia to control the entire body of water from the Russian coast to the Kuril Island chain, which

Japan claims as well as Russia.2 This area is a rich belt of oil reserves which Russia will be able

to use to its advantage. Besides the legal annexation of the Sea of Okhotsk, Russia also recently

claimed territory in the Arctic on an even grander scale. In the Arctic Ocean, north of Russia, 1 Heather A. Conley and Caroline Rohloff, New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015), VII.2 John R. Haines, “Ali Baba’s Cave: The Sea of Okhotsk’s Contentious Triangle,” Foreign Policy Research Institute (2014): 590, accessed October 28, 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.orbis.2014.08.009.

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President Vladimir Putin submitted another proposal to the United Nations for the waters around

the North Pole, which, if accepted, would cede 1.2 million square miles of ocean to the Russian

Federation. Though the proposal will not be approved until at least 2016, a diver secured a

Russian flag to the ocean floor near the North Pole in 2007 as a symbolic gesture of Russia’s

claim of the seabed.3

Industrial development has been another key factor for the Russian government in the

Arctic. Russia has been busy in recent years with the construction of a fleet of “icebreakers” and

other infrastructural developments. For instance, the Russian government currently owns and

operates a fleet of over 40 icebreakers in the Arctic, some of which are nuclear-powered.4 Russia

is the only country in the world with such equipment; Even the United States has not moved

toward nuclear-powered ships in the Arctic. A nuclear icebreaker is a ship that “is powered by a

nuclear reactor and designed to clear paths through the ice for other ships to follow,”5 and they

are much more efficient than conventional ships, which gives Russia a distinct advantage as the

only state operating in the Arctic with such technology. This superiority is only forecasted to

increase, as Russia is currently in the process of constructing supposedly the largest icebreaker

ship in history, which will be completed by the year 2017.6

Perhaps the most important of all Russian developments in the Arctic is increased

militarization of the region. “Russia considers the Arctic a strategic priority and views its

maritime territorial claims here through a military lens, not simply an economic one”.7 The

Arctic Ocean is increasingly becoming a major asset for Russia in order to increase its military

3 “Russia Files Bid at UN for Vast Arctic Territory,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, last modified August 4, 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-un-arctic-territory/27169109.html.4 Milosz Reterski, “Breaking the Ice,” Foreign Affairs, last modified December 11, 2014, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2014-12-11/breaking-ice.5 Ibid.6 Ibid.7 Ibid.

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prowess. There has been much activity in this regard, as Russia is opening more military bases in

the Arctic, and re-opening some Cold-War Era bases. One such base that is being re-opened is

Alakurtti, which is only 50 kilometers from the Finnish border. With the re-opening of this base,

about 3,000 Russian troops will occupy the area,8 and Alakurtti is not the only area in the Arctic

in which the Russian military has an increasing presence.

9

The above map shows all military bases that are either occupied or will be occupied by

Russian forces. It is important to note that many of these bases, due to the geography of the

Arctic, are very close to those of neighboring states, causing a potential threat to the security of

these states. Other militaristic actions that Russia has carried out in the Arctic include training

operations, the construction of drone bases near the Bering Strait, and increased presence of both

8 Heather A. Conley and Caroline Rohloff, New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015), 11.9 Jeremy Bender and Mike Nudelman, “This map shows Russia’s dominant militarization of the Arctic,” Business Insider, last modified August 7, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-russias-militarization-of-arctic-2015-8

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aircraft and the Navy throughout the north.10 Russia’s militarization of the Arctic has been one of

the most obvious developments in the region, but Russia’s claims in the Arctic go far beyond

simply showcasing its power and military might. There are several reasons Russia has upped its

game.

Why is the Arctic so important to Russia?

The development and militarization of the Arctic holds many strategic advantages for

Russia. As previously eluded to, the annexation of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Arctic Ocean will

yield massive payoff for Russia in the form of oil and natural gas reserves. Though the price of

oil is falling and Russia’s economy is getting weaker because of this, the sheer volume of

resources in the Arctic is sure to benefit the Russian economy in the long run. In northwestern

Russia, the Arctic is suspected to provide the Federation with three billion barrels of oil just in

proven deposits alone, not to mention the potential reserves, which are predicted to yield at least

67.7 billion barrels.11 As far as natural gas is concerned, proven reserves in the Arctic could

equal 7.7 trillion cubic meters (tcm), and unexplored reserves another 88.3tcm.12 These quantities

would allow Russia an enormous amount of revenue, despite having lost buyers in Europe due to

the Ukrainian Crisis. The melting of Arctic ice will also allow new shipping lanes to be opened.

Coupled with new-found oil and gas reserves, Russia could use these shipping lanes to export

fossil fuels in a much shorter time, showing why control of the region is economically important

for Russia.

Another reason that Russia is interested in the Arctic could also be because Putin greatly

needs to change the subject from what is currently happening in Ukraine, which has shifted

international public opinion against him. Putin is losing in Ukraine. The separatist forces he 10 Heather A. Conley and Caroline Rohloff, New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015), 19-20.11 Ibid, 24. 12 Ibid, 25.

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backs have been responsible for numerous human rights violations and this has alienated Russia

from the international community. Since public opinion of him is low outside of Russia, sparking

international crisis in the Arctic may distract the people from the issues in Eastern Europe.13 The

West will focus on Putin’s northern territory grabs, which are in closer proximity to players such

as the United States. This will also distract the domestic Russian public from the Ukraine

quagmire. The Arctic is therefore a failsafe for Putin to gain domestic popularity and

international great power legitimacy once again. Once he is able to do so, it will be easier for

Russia to gain more traction as a respected and legitimate world power. All of this activity,

however, does not come without a price.

How is the international community reacting to Russia’s actions in the Arctic?

With all of Russia’s developments and expansion into the vast and empty north, some

states have recognized the gravity of the situation and have spoken out in opposition. Russia has

been chastised by more than a few states, called aggressive and been blamed for military

escalation among the members of the Arctic Council. To begin, the United States is currently

ensuring greater access to Arctic resources for itself and rushing the construction of icebreakers

to rival those of Russia.14 For example, a heavy icebreaker currently under construction by the

United States is now scheduled to be finished by the year 2020 instead of 2022 as it was formerly

slated. This underlines the expedience of Arctic exploration and expansion, as Russia’s claims

have prompted other nations of the Arctic to work faster to improve their Arctic presence.

The U.S. is not the only state in which this is taking place, however. As

foreignpolicy.com states, “Nordic countries have moved to strengthen their own hand in the

13Brian Whitmore, “Why Putin is Losing,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, last modified August 10, 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/why-putin-is-losing/27181633.html.14 Mike Eckel, “White House Proposes to Expand Access to Arctic,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, last modified September 2, 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/white-house-proposes-expand-access-to-arctic/27221758.html.

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north.”15 Like the U.S., the countries of Scandinavia have recently undergone a process of reform

toward Arctic expansion. The Nordic countries have also pledged closer defense ties with one

another. Because of the Russian militarization of the Arctic, these countries have begun to

recognize a decrease in international security. In fact, the Russian militarization of the Arctic and

re-opening of USSR-era bases, especially Alakurtti, has been called the biggest challenge to

European security in history, according to European Union policy makers.16 As a result, in March

of 2015, Norway increased its spending for northern defense capabilities by $1 billion, and in the

same month the Canadian government authorized a $3.4 billion project that would fund the

construction of five Arctic offshore patrol ships and better northern military capabilities.17 Both

of these acts show further concern on the part of the international community, demonstrating

international pushback from individual states. Further, Russia’s aggression in the Arctic has

caused distress that Russia has become the world’s newest enemy. After several incidents in the

summer of 2015 involving Russian military planes being intercepted in Eastern Europe, two

high-ranking officials from the Pentagon called Russia “the most significant existential threat to

the U.S.”18 Obviously, no one in the international community is overly thrilled that Russia has

taken up new expansion policies in the Far-North.

On a somewhat larger scale, Russia’s moves have prompted reaction from the United

Nations to test the legality of said actions. As mentioned, the UN has yet to make a decision on

Russia’s proposal for vast amounts of territory in the Arctic Ocean. According to the 1982

United Nations Law of the Sea Convention, any state may claim an “exclusive economic zone

15 Reid Standish, “U.S. Assumes Arctic Council Leadership Amid Increasing Tension in the Far-North,” Foreign Policy, last modified April 24, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/24/u-s-assumes-arctic-council-leadership-amid-increasing-tension-in-the-far-north/?wp_login_redirect=016 Ibid. 17 Ibid. 18 Morgan Chalfant, “Russia Claims North Pole for Itself, Plants Titanium Flag on Floor of Arctic Ocean,” Washington Free Beacon, last modified August 5, 2015, http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-claims-north-pole-for-itself-plants-titanium-russian-flag-on-floor-of-arctic-ocean/.

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over a continental shelf abutting its shores.”19 A state claiming the waters adjacent to its coastline

as its territory, therefore, is perfectly legal. However, in Russia’s case, the situation is more

complicated. The Law of the Sea Convention legalizes Russia’s current territory in the Arctic

Ocean, but Russia’s bid, if accepted, would increase Russia’s sea territory to about 463,000

square miles.20 Russia has provided the United Nations with more research than in the previous

proposal it made in 2002 for the same territory. Back then, the UN rejected the claim, but with

more evidence to back up its case, Russia may be able to have the proposal accepted. This is

important, because it shows that Russia is interested in doing whatever possible to obtain the sea

territory legally, a far cry from Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. At

least this time, Putin’s actions are legitimate. The legality of Russia’s attempted Arctic

annexation is not without controversy, however. The United Nations could very well reject the

proposal for the second time due to Russia’s actions in Syria. It remains uncertain what the fate

of the Arctic sea territory will be before 2016. Though the international community has offered

pushback to the Russian actions in the Arctic, further pushback will undoubtedly cause more

serious effects to the international community in the future.

What are the implications of Russia’s involvement in the Arctic on the future?

Much is being said about Russia’s increased aggression in various parts of the

globe as of late, and the Arctic Front is no exception. Russia’s militarization and expansion in the

Arctic has the real potential to bring about a new Cold War. As discussed previously, Russia’s

actions have ushered in a new era of escalation among the states party to the Arctic Council.

Besides the fact that the United States, Canada, and Scandinavian nations have stepped up

19 Ibid. 20 Ibid.

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security in the north, these nations are already considering how soon Arctic militaries may see

action.

For example, the U.S. Navy is not yet considered an absolutely necessary presence in

Alaska, but many American military officials feel that the near future will see an even stronger

rise in military tension in the Arctic, and that it is necessary that the United States catch up to

Russia’s level of Arctic development. “Government officials say the United States is lagging

behind other nations, chief among them Russia, in preparing for the new environmental,

economic and geopolitical realities facing the region.”21 Though tensions have not yet built up to

a frightening level, the pattern of hurried escalation seen currently between the United States and

Russia in the Arctic is reminiscent of Cold War politics. The geopolitical uncertainty in the

region pits both powers against each other in a race to expand, militarize, and modernize the

Arctic. The race has created a distrust, an ominous cloud that looms over the Arctic Ocean that is

likely to burst in a few years. How large this rupture will be, however, is difficult to forecast.

Based on the amount of recent military operations carried out by Russia, a military

conflict in the Arctic is not unlikely. As previously outlined, Russia’s militarization of the area is

one of the main ways Putin is putting the Arctic to use. Some operations have given the West,

especially the United States, reason to be concerned for security. For example, on September 17,

2014, the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s invasion of Poland, both American and Canadian air

forces scrambled jets to intercept Russian aircraft, six near the Alaskan coast, and 2 long-range

bombers over the Beaufort Sea near the Canadian coast.22 In November of 2014, an increased

presence of Russian submarines was discovered by NATO in the North Atlantic, the exact

21 Steven Lee Myers, “U.S. is Playing Catch-up with Russia in Scramble for the Arctic,” New York Times, last modified August 29, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/30/world/united-states-russia-arctic-exploration.html?_r=1. 22 Heather A. Conley and Caroline Rohloff, New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015), 82.

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location Russian subs based out of the Kola Peninsula frequented during the Cold War.23 Above

all, in 2014 Russia conducted the largest military exercise in its history in the Vostok region of

Siberia, involving over 100,000 troops.24 These, along with several other events have obviously

alarmed other arctic states. If this rate of militarization continues and the United States pushes to

match the Russians in the Arctic, a replay of the mid-twentieth century is the only logical

outcome. Therefore, a new Cold War is a very real possibility in the future should the arms

escalation in the Arctic continue.

Another possible future outcome of Russia’s Arctic claims is further territory annexation

by the Federation. Recently, a series of maps from July 2012 resurfaced in a Moscow-based

newspaper. The maps were detailed predictions of Russian territorial grabs that would result in a

very different-looking world by the year 2035. The maps involved not only Ukraine and Eastern

Europe, but also territories in the Arctic.25 Though doubtful to be a serious Russian foreign

policy plan, the maps do hold some water considering Russia’s latest territorial grabs. The plans

detail how control of eastern Ukraine and then northern Europe and the Arctic region will lead to

a disintegration of the European Union, and Russian dominance in Europe. It is also mentioned

that Russia would then move on to claim the area known as New Russia, along the northern

Black Sea coastline. The significance of this plan is that much of it has actually come to fruition

within the last two years. Crimea and Eastern Ukraine are under Russian control as well as the

Sea of Okhotsk and, if the UN approves, much of the Arctic Ocean. 2035 is still a long way off,

but if Russia continues its expansionist policies in the Arctic, the world map as described in the

Moscow newspaper may become a reality.

Conclusion23 Ibid. 24 Ibid, 19. 25 Frank Jacobs, “What Russia Could Look Like in 2035, if Putin Gets His Wish,” Foreign Policy, last modified June 4, 2014, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/04/what-russia-could-look-like-in-2035-if-putin-gets-his-wish/.

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Russia’s claims in the Arctic have caused much disturbance in the international

community. For Russia, the Arctic is a promising region for natural resources, exploration, and

military development, but for the rest of the world, Russian expansion in the Arctic represents a

rising threat to international security. Whatever Russia’s ultimate goals are in the Arctic, the

future most definitely holds some form of conflict, whether hot or cold. Allies within the Arctic

Council may very well end up on opposite sides of a Cold War to rival that of the mid-twentieth

century. Only time will truly tell how Russia is able to use the vast Arctic in years to come.

Critical Bibliography

Bender, Jeremy, and Mike Nudelman. "This Map Shows Russia's Dominant Militarization of the

Arctic." Business Insider. Business Insider, Inc, 07 Aug. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

I thought this source was a great visual of Russian military positions in the Arctic, which

is why I used it. Though it was Business Insider and not a site that was more dedicated to

foreign policy, I still found the map to be very informative and detailed.

Chalfant, Morgan. "Russia Claims North Pole for Itself, Plants Titanium Russian Flag on Floor

of Arctic Ocean." Washington Free Beacon. Washington Free Beacon, 5 Aug. 2015.

Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

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This article was informative and actually proved to be of better use to me than I originally

thought it would. Besides discussing the Russian flag that was sent to the bottom of the

Arctic Ocean, I felt that the source did well in explaining the dilemma between the UN

and Russia as far as Russia’s most recent territorial claim in the Arctic.

Conley, Heather A., and Caroline Rohloff. New Ice Curtain: Russia's Strategic Reach to the

Arctic. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015. Center for Strategic & International

Studies. CSIS Europe, Aug. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

This was my go-to source for almost any information that I required. It was extremely

well-researched, and very extensive. It was over a hundred pages, so it took a while for

me to page through the whole thing, but I managed to know the source inside-out by the

end of my research.

Eckel, Mike. "White House Proposes To Expand Access To Arctic."

RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. RFE/Reuters, 2 Sept. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

This article was especially helpful in researching what activity the United States was

involved in at the same time as Russia in the Arctic. It was great to get another

perspective of the issue. I used this source mostly when describing the international

pushback from other states.

Haines, John R. "‘Ali Baba's Cave’: The Sea of Okhotsk's Contentious Triangle." Orbis 58.4

(2014): 584-603. Web.

This journal was very long but filled with extremely detailed research about the Sea of

Okhotsk and the “Peanut Hole” of previously unclaimed water within it. The source came

in handy when researching Russia’s claim of the Sea of Okhotsk.

Jacobs, Fank. "What Russia Could Look Like in 2035, If Putin Gets His Wish."

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Foreignpolicy.com. Foreign Policy, 4 June 2014. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

I found this to be a very fun article to read. I was amused by the seemingly extreme view

of the maps. This source proved to be a lot more useful than I originally thought,

however, and I was able to gather much information about one possible future scenario as

a result of Russia’s presence in the Arctic.

Myers, Steven Lee. "U.S. Is Playing Catch-Up With Russia in Scramble for the Arctic." The

New

York Times. The New York Times, 29 Aug. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

This article was another one that was useful in the juxtaposition between the United

States and Russia. It offered concrete examples of the U.S. expansion into the Arctic as a

direct response of Russia’s activity. I used this source when describing international

pushback.

Nuttall, Mark, and T. V. Callaghan. The Arctic: Environment, People, Policy. Singapore:

Harwood Academic, 2000. Print.

This book, though not specifically cited in the paper, provided great background

information on the Arctic. I thoroughly enjoyed reading it, because it taught me of the

day-to-day issues on an individual level in the region and explained general foreign

policy in regards to the Arctic.

Reterski, Milosz. "Breaking the Ice." Foreign Affairs. Council on Foreign Relations, 12 Dec.

2014. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

This was one of my favorite sources to use. Foreign Affairs never ceases to amaze me in

regards to how well-researched the stories are. This source was especially helpful in

researching Russian icebreaker numbers and capabilities. I cited this source when

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explaining Russia’s plans for nuclear-powered and record-breaking quantities of

icebreakers.

"Russia Files UN Bid For Arctic Territory." RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. RFE/RL, 4 Aug.

2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

I found Radio Free Europe to be generally a good source for the topic based solely on the

fact that there were many articles on the same topic to be found. I used this particular

article to get more details on Russia’s newest bid to the UN to acquire new territory in the

Arctic Ocean.

Standish, Reid. "U.S. Assumes Arctic Council Leadership Amid Increasing Tension in the Far

North." Foreign Policy. Passport, 24 Apr. 2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

This article dealt mostly with the members of the Arctic Council and was useful when

trying to find information about the politics of the Council, especially as of late. I thought

it was well-written.

Whitmore, Brian. "Why Putin Is Losing." RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. RFE/RL, 10 Aug.

2015. Web. 15 Oct. 2015.

This was one of my most-used sources, mostly because it included information on a

much broader scale than just the Arctic, but which was still relevant for my topic. I used

it when researching how the Ukrainian Conflict played a role in Russia’s militarization of

the Arctic.

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